MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

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teacher2
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Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#621 Post by teacher2 » Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:52 pm

He can print it @ false dawn - save a draft and press post at eon-2nmins so it’s out there if he dies, but unlikely to affect scum play. I’m interested too but don’t much like reading (rather than mechnicL strategic) night chatter.

I will respond to Peters case In full now that I have the time, however, because I do think depending on the morning flips we may want tracker to claim. I can’t guarantee whether that will come tonight (friday) or sat morning because of real life.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#622 Post by peterlund » Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:53 pm

flash2015 wrote:
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:45 pm
What happens if he doesn't survive the night though?
Interesting point you make here flash! How does Brain know that he probably survives the night with all the possible deaths that can happen in this game?

Good catch, indeed!

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Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#623 Post by dargorygel » Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:04 pm

##GM NOTE
SQUIBBS44 HAS REPLACED DEMONRHK
(trying again)

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Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#624 Post by Squigs44 » Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:37 pm

Hey guys, I'm in now. Just a quick post for now. Will catch up and post in about two or so hours when I get home from work. And it's Squigs, not Squibbs ;)

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Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#625 Post by bozotheclown » Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:41 pm

At least thedipplayer was not a PR. I think he was a good lynch under the circumstances, since his lack of participation would likely have continued to be an issue, and he gave us no reason to town read him.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#626 Post by brainbomb » Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:50 pm

I will bet you 6 large pizzas that Jamie is in the maf qt bitching out the mods for not modkilling me.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#627 Post by peterlund » Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:50 pm

Welcome Squigs44! It is hard to spell you name, but we can handle it. (Good that we only need to get the first 2 letters right when voting for you :) )

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Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#628 Post by brainbomb » Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:51 pm

bozotheclown wrote:
Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:41 pm
At least thedipplayer was not a PR. I think he was a good lynch under the circumstances, since his lack of participation would likely have continued to be an issue, and he gave us no reason to town read him.
Bozo, woah put the knife down man. This isnt the maf qt

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Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#629 Post by flash2015 » Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:27 pm

brainbomb wrote:
Fri Jul 13, 2018 3:18 am
I will bet you 6 large pizzas that Jamie is in the maf qt bitching out the mods for not modkilling me.
That is funny. I am just as confident that you are discussing in the mafia qt how to fulfill that promise you made me.
brainbomb wrote:
Fri Jul 13, 2018 3:18 am
dont expect to live very long

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Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#630 Post by DoubtingThomas » Sat Jul 14, 2018 12:04 am

I am confident that jamie and brain are fighting each other in maf qt rn

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Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#631 Post by Squigs44 » Sat Jul 14, 2018 12:24 am

Alright guys, just got home from work. About to do a full 32 page read to catch up. I swear when I played when these first got started up that we only had about a third the amount of posts per day. That was back when we decided that 3.5 came after 3 instead of 4 though.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#632 Post by Squigs44 » Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:08 am

Well, I instantly regret volunteering as a sub. That was a painful 32 pages of reading. Way too many pointless posts and a lot of people seemed to be like chickens running around with their heads cut off. Since I just subbed in, I feel like I should probably post at least some cursory reads on people, even if it is during the night phase. The key to winning this game is gathering info, and so my reads should only help us out. Here goes:

Also, FYI, the following posts are mostly gut reaction posts. And they are based off of what I remember after reading 32 pages. So please forgive me if I don't remember everything posted, but please correct me if I'm wrong so I can look back at it. I will have to do a more analytical post with well built logical arguments at the beginning of D2.

Players I really don't have any feeling towards (mostly due to limited posting or not posting anything memorable for me):
BismarkAlive, Bozo, Peterlund, Vecna, worcej

Now alphabetically:
Brainbomb: First off, how in the world did he not get lynched after scum claiming? His style of play reminds me a lot of ghug's in some ways. I feel like Brainbomb is the kind of guy that will just do whatever he wants, and most of what he does is to spark reactions. It's really hard to get a read off of him. Even with there being a chance he is scum, it's probably not worth lynching him until later in the game because his behavior sparks a lot of reactions that we can learn from (just look at the Jamiet outburst). Slight scum for his scum-claim.

Damo666 - the only thing that I remember about him from my read is that he really didnt post much, and that he voted without really posting his reasoning. Looks like he could be lazy scum just cruising by, especially if either Jamiet or BB are mafia trying to absorb all the attention away from their teammates. Scum lean.

DoubtingThomas - Don't remember a whole lot about him, but I remember the few things that I did read came across as very timid. He seemed scared to post for fear of what people would think about him. The two people that do that are scum and newbs. Since he is a newb, Im gonna have to give him null, but I will be expecting more from him.

DrCjg - Honestly, I wish I remembered more from my read through. I remember thinking that he was scummy, but I cant for the life of me remember why. Will look into him first on my rereads.

Flash2015 - There is always that one new guy that seems to have it all figured out. He posts just enough good content to get universally townread, but doesn't post anything that offends anyone. His play seems too safe and perfect. In M9 I was mentoring a new guy who played just like Flash. He was scum and won because he was universally townread the whole game. Im not saying he is scum, but I dont like how universally townread he has been. Null, and will be keeping my eye on him.

Fox - I dont like him. Spent the beginning of the game talking about game mechanics. It seems like every time he posts it looks like he is contributing but it doesn't actually add anything of value. Except at the end there I skimmed most of the posts, so he could have been contributing there. Again, need to reread to firm up my reads, but for now, slight scum lean.

Jamie - Tunneled hard. Made a lot of noise. Near the end of the day was more quiet. Option 1 - he was mafia trying to distract from his teammates. Option 2 - he plays off of his emotions and not his logic. If its option 1, we lynch him. If its option 2, I wouldn't mind him dying so we don't have to listen to outbursts from him. And if both are true, its a win win. For reals though, I think he is just an emotional townie. Slight town read.

RagingIke - Townread. Or just a good mafia player. Admidst the chaos, I felt like he was one of the players that was actually calling for reason. When bandwagons were being thrown around, he didn't blindly accept others logic, he followed his own logic and made consistent decisions. I like him.

Rdrivera - Similar to Ike. He seemed to be one of the few levelheaded guys. Slight town.

Teacher2 - Very analytical. Is he hiding behind his analyticalness as a scum though? He did spend a lot of time on game mechanics and theory, which I find as a waste of time, something scum like to do. I will have to go back and look to see if he used his reasoning to build an actual argument against an actual player, because if he didnt then Im leaning scum. If he did, then Im leaning town. @Teacher - Can you find a useful argument you made and let me know what post it was to save me the time of looking myself? Thanks.

Yav - After reading some of the reasoning on Yav being scummy, I think Im inclined to agree and Ill go with a slight scum lean on him. But I need to look at him more thoroughly.


Wow, I have way more scum reads than town reads. I think BB is right. We all suck at mafia on this site. Im going to bed soon and have work tomorrow, but should be back for beginning of D2 (if I don't die!) for some more thorough reads.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#633 Post by teacher2 » Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:49 am

peterlund wrote:
Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:49 pm
Snip
The quote points to Peter's case, snipped to save space. I respond primarily to address the first issue and start discussion. Tonight is better for strategy than D2, because both are on a weekend when people tend to be less active (incl myself).

Peter distrusts my tracker hardclaim proposal. Fair, I would too without my background. But it is a recognized strategy (NOT universally accepted) where I play, which is what first prompted the idea. (As an aside, here is the best post discussing the strategy in that setup, which is critically different).

Why I liked – and still like – the strategy here is because of (1) the rapidity with which MYLO/LYLO will come, and (2) the comparative weakness of the tracker.

I already discussed the first point in Post 332. With all the guns running around, D4 will likely be decisive, and possibly D3 (I have not done the strict odds because I don’t trust pure stats; statistically town should hit scum 20-25% D1, historically its <10%ish). In brief, tracker gets 2 or at most 3 shots.

That brings me to the second point – what can a tracker actually catch?
  • Not the ninja.
  • The Janitor on only one night.
  • The roleblocker only if scum decide not to holster.
  • The traitor – the best result.
  • The SK – a mixed result, since SK can kill scum (and indeed by N3 probably wants to)
  • The JOAT – a positive, but relatively inconsequential result on a healing or tracking night; a terrible result on a killing night.
  • The Doctor – a positive, but relatively inconsequential result.
Bottom line, in 2 shots (worst case), it is debatable whether tracker catches any actions. If not, a nullcheck is meaningless due to the ninja plus janitor/RB sitting on their hands. Even if so, the redcheck could well hurt town.

In contrast, having the tracker be known!town (1) avoids a mislynch, (2) allows better wagon analysis, and (3) forces scum to use their roleblock (making JOAT track more effective, and possible for Dr to self-save).

So that’s my affirmative case. Let’s deal with Peter’s shade:
  • “scheme to reveal tracker”: Guilty. But not much of a hidden scheme.
  • “waste the important powers of the doc and JOAT”: Not at all. The odds of a Doc/JOAT save are small. Pure math says it is (1/14*1/17) tonight, or less than 1%. Lets add common sense (assume scum and doctor are trying to kill and save in the same smaller townier pool) and make that (1/5*1/6) – its still only 3%. Im trying to have these saving powers serve a greater purpose of protecting knowntown than simply playing roulette.
So I have now made, and reiterated, my all too long case for a tracker claim. If there are 2 town deaths tonight, I will be pushing for it tomorrow. Scumread me for it all you want, but please show me where Im wrong first. Now for the less important stuff.

Peter’s second issue is my vote on him, calling it a fast and easy conclusion unlike me. But my whole dance with Peter reminded me way too much of M36. There, as here, I scummed Peter for relatively weak reasons (1 and 2). A wagon eventually built, and Peter reacted with less care for himself, not voting the counterwagon and remaining consistent with his reads. That is why I moved here. But I don’t understand his comment about "unlike me" given the many similarities – including "dirtbag" in link 1.

Peter’s third issue was the maths discussion with Flash. That was in at most 3 posts (of 40), and then only because several other players had commented. I don’t think anyone can fairly say I distracted the board, other than trying to put out the Brain-Jamie fire.

While I want everyone to evaluate the substantive tracker claim idea, I wouldn’t mind Peter responding to the second and/or third points if he still has the same read.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#634 Post by teacher2 » Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:12 am

Squigs44 wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:08 am
......
Teacher2 - Very analytical. Is he hiding behind his analyticalness as a scum though? He did spend a lot of time on game mechanics and theory, which I find as a waste of time, something scum like to do. I will have to go back and look to see if he used his reasoning to build an actual argument against an actual player, because if he didnt then Im leaning scum. If he did, then Im leaning town. @Teacher - Can you find a useful argument you made and let me know what post it was to save me the time of looking myself? Thanks.
Um, not really tbh. I don’t think I had a good D1, and I acknowledged my cases (which I did make) were relatively weak. As a player, it felt super slow until EoD-5 (you’ll notice that 30% of the game happened in those last 5 hours, and probably another 40% is either Brain/Jamie or shitposting). So there wasn’t much to go on, and by the time there was more to go on, I was more focused on getting an anti-brain consensus than analyzing. Your chicken comment is apt. But to try to respond:

I stated, but didnt argue, my view that town should never lynch the first D1 wagon in Post 554 on pg. 28. I didn’t argue it here because I thought people did have legit reasons to be on Brain, plus I had a personal distaste for the toxicity. But I think that it was a useful statement, and true for the reasons I’ve argued before (here, for example).

In terms of the best argument I actually made, Id go for the tracker hardclaim for the reasons I gave in the super long post above, the argument against lynching Demon in post 425 on pg. 22, or my push both on and away from Peter in separate posts on pg. 27

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Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#635 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:39 am

Well well well.

Why the *fuck* did you people not lynch Brainbomb?

*Shakes head*

@DrCJG: You started and pushed the Dipplayer lynch. Please explain yourself.

@Everyone else who voted for TheDipplayer: Explain why you moved your vote onto him, and why you wouldn't vote for Brainbomb.

Thanks. Stupid lynch.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#636 Post by brainbomb » Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:42 am

Why is Jamie alive. Someone vig him plz. Ill give you mvp cred

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Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#637 Post by teacher2 » Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:17 am

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:39 am
@Everyone else who voted for TheDipplayer: Explain why you moved your vote onto him, and why you wouldn't vote for Brainbomb.
1. It was the apparent counterwagon to Brainbomb and a pretty unhelpful slot.

2. Many reasons: I dont believe in scumslips that obvious. I dont believe in voting the first serious wagon of the day. But I do believe his dismissiveness of your reads was genuine, whereas I think scum would have played safer/more calculated.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#638 Post by brainbomb » Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:55 am

Why are you taking his persistence seriously. Its what he does as scum - look fir things he can be given liscense to pursue. Everyone and their mother thinks hes justified in scumreading me. Has he questioned anyone about anything else? Has he elaborated on his reads, revisited any of them?

Is he still scumreading me for that 1 werewolf joke post on pg2? Youve all given him a bully pulpit to tunnel, and a license to play his scum meta. So hes just playing his level 0 scum meta.

Go reread the game he was scum with balki a few games ago. This imo is even more egregiously obvious than that outing. If I recall the scumteam was jamie, balki, some new guy, and Jamie got slam dunked day 1.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#639 Post by brainbomb » Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:56 am

Hes usually more irritable and wants ppl modkilled when hes town. Hes just so calm and until you lynch him hes never gonna stop being a broken record wrt me

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Re: MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

#640 Post by brainbomb » Sat Jul 14, 2018 8:30 am

I hardclaim serial killer.

Im tired of being accused of shit.
Im not scum, im not town

There.

My plan is to shoot scum and be town vig moving firward. Ill lose but at least you know im townsiding aiming only at scum

Ill be shooting jamie, yav, bozo or a mystery read of mine.

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