MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

[damo666]

I take it nobody is going to counter Peter's doc claim then. Notice how Peter fulfilled his post obligation with 2 different votes then disappeared. May or may not be important.

[bozotheclown]

i know people arent gonna listen anyway, but if we lynch fox, bozo and rdrivera, town wins.

people are scumreading worcej for shit reasons and id be very sirprised if it flips scum.
damo could theoretically be a totally dumbtelling janitor or sk, but i doubt it.
Flash might be the person im wrong about, but i still think hes town over bozo rdrivera and fox.

Peter, you should probably sheep me, since at least if we dictate the lynch its town controlled.

you shouls know by now thay fox, bozo and rdrivera are way more capable of pulling the wool over our eyes than whatever other lynchbait is being put on the table now.

if you dont believe me, just search the iso of fox, bozo and rdrivera, and look if they ever even mention eachother outside of their readslist. its very very minimal.

You do not have to be an experience player to roll scum.

If I am wrong about the mafia not bussing teacher, I think Squigs and flash are as likely as anyone to have bussed teacher, they both voted for teacher when he was already the top wagon, and they were the two who tried to switch to Jamie right at EOD.

Here was my reasoning for voting for teacher over peter - it was the sketchy decision for teacher to jump off peter day 1. It just didn't sound right.

I always thought either jamie or BB was scum. When Jamie did the crazy voting stunt game 2, then switched to peter, I thought it was an attempt to save teacher. When BB decided to create the Jamie wagon, I thought that if Jamie rolled town it would then confirm at least for me that BB was scum. As I have said before, I realize it was a mistake for me to switch there, not only since my reasoning would have meant teacher was scum anyway but the quick vote moves potentially put any lynch at risk (we were really lucky it worked out OK).

Why was it suspicious for teacher to move off of peter D1 if peter is town?

[flash2015]

You would want to lynch an unCCed town PR? I am getting the feeling you know I will flip town.


##VOTE flash2015

Why would anyone else out themselves as JOAT if the JOAT NK has not been used yet? You would be just asking for Mafia to rollblock and kill you tonight (or at the very least RB if the doctor is forced to save). If Vecna is lying and there is a separate JOAT, it is far better to use the JOAT NK tonight on Vecna.

Why would one of the two remaining scum ensure their eventual lynch by claiming a town PR?

He was one of the remaining four on Peter. If he hadn't made his JOAT claim he would definitely have been a target today. If he is scum he gives himself a chance to setup a third mislynch.

So you believe Vecna is JOAT...but only attack me ans Squigs for our vote on you. Is you are not scum scum, is your excuse for Vecna's three bad calls is that he is just really bad at this game??

[peterlund]

Mafia killing Brain is odd as he would probably be an easy lynch. Is the scum team inexperienced perhaps or are they just having fun making fools of us?

But now I will look at this in another way. Which players should not have made it past N3 if they were not on the scum team.

The list of people that should not have survived 3 NK nights, I am sure that we have at least one scum in this group (if not 2):
1. Vecna: His fake JOAT claim! There is no way that JOAT Vecna would claim JOAT before he had completed all 3 submissions. He is too good for that. So what is the purpose then. Is it to provoke a possible newbie town JOAT to CC him to create an easy NK next day. Or is it to get some credibility in Town for being town himself? The latter reasoning seems pretty flawed, so I assume it is to provoke a counter claim from the real town JOAT.
2. Squigs44: Looks very towny and presents his read in a very credible way in the same kind of manner as Teacher did. I know this type from work. When they do not know much they instead present long detailed reports which they email everyone. This way they get cred for doing a serious hard study and because of this they must know more that then others on the subject. The problem is that the reports never make any good or valid conclusions at the end. Anyhow this is the reason scum should be afraid of him in case he is town. So strange he survived this long! He joined the Teacher wagon very late. (37 min before EoD2 making it 7-5). After that it would have impossible for scum Squigs to back out of that vote.
3. rdrivera2005: semi scum/town as usual - probably a strategy not to scare anyone off, neither Town nor Scum.
4. Foxcastle: Sounds towny to me. I have not really got what this quarrel with worcej is all about. (me being lazy I guess)

5. peterlund: I must have been so off in all my reads after we caught Teacher, so scum decided to keep me along for a while more. I may have been a useful tool for them.

Not high priority scum targets that easily can survive many night into LYLO:
- BismarckAlive,
- bozotheclown,
- damo666,
- flash2015,
- worcej
The second scum and the SK may well be in this list if not all are in the first list.

##VOTE VECNA for his fake JOAT claim trying to provoke a CC from the real JOAT.

[flash2015]

You do not have to be an experience player to roll scum.

If I am wrong about the mafia not bussing teacher, I think Squigs and flash are as likely as anyone to have bussed teacher, they both voted for teacher when he was already the top wagon, and they were the two who tried to switch to Jamie right at EOD.

Here was my reasoning for voting for teacher over peter - it was the sketchy decision for teacher to jump off peter day 1. It just didn't sound right.

I always thought either jamie or BB was scum. When Jamie did the crazy voting stunt game 2, then switched to peter, I thought it was an attempt to save teacher. When BB decided to create the Jamie wagon, I thought that if Jamie rolled town it would then confirm at least for me that BB was scum. As I have said before, I realize it was a mistake for me to switch there, not only since my reasoning would have meant teacher was scum anyway but the quick vote moves potentially put any lynch at risk (we were really lucky it worked out OK).

Why was it suspicious for teacher to move off of peter D1 if peter is town?

I think you are now trying too hard. I have gone over this several times now (re-read my comments). This is now suggesting to me that perhaps Vecna is right (third time lucky - knock on wood).

[Squigs44]

I have also been thinking about the DT kill. DT said he was very scared about dying during the nighttime. Since he was veteran, you would think that he would go on alert if he was that scared. My guess is that he didn't go on alert because he had gone on alert N2, and didn't have that ability anymore.
Furthermore, if he went on alert and SK targeted him N2, that would explain the lack of an expected NK. The SK would know that DT was the veteran, and would know that he could kill him the next night. DT would know that he was targeted, and that would explain why he was so scared.
I think this is why DT was killed last night even after his push on jamie made him look less townie. SK wants to get rid of PR's to limit end of game role claims.

So now the question is: why did the SK originally target DT on N2? Did DT have them as a scumread?

If DT had been targeted by the SK while he was on alert N2, he would have been notified, and he would have informed us. I think you would know that, so this post seems fabricated.

He would have been notified that he was visited, but would not have known who visited him, so this information wouldn't have been very useful. If he did let us know, he would have had to have claimed Veteran. I think he valued keeping his identity as a PR hidden over the knowledge that someone visited him. Regardless of whether this theory is correct or not, the fact that a confirmed town scumread you bolsters my confidence in my own scumread of you.

[bozotheclown]

I have also been thinking about the DT kill. DT said he was very scared about dying during the nighttime. Since he was veteran, you would think that he would go on alert if he was that scared. My guess is that he didn't go on alert because he had gone on alert N2, and didn't have that ability anymore.
Furthermore, if he went on alert and SK targeted him N2, that would explain the lack of an expected NK. The SK would know that DT was the veteran, and would know that he could kill him the next night. DT would know that he was targeted, and that would explain why he was so scared.
I think this is why DT was killed last night even after his push on jamie made him look less townie. SK wants to get rid of PR's to limit end of game role claims.

So now the question is: why did the SK originally target DT on N2? Did DT have them as a scumread?

If DT had been targeted by the SK while he was on alert N2, he would have been notified, and he would have informed us. I think you would know that, so this post seems fabricated.

He would have been notified that he was visited, but would not have known who visited him, so this information wouldn't have been very useful. If he did let us know, he would have had to have claimed Veteran. I think he valued keeping his identity as a PR hidden over the knowledge that someone visited him. Regardless of whether this theory is correct or not, the fact that a confirmed town scumread you bolsters my confidence in my own scumread of you.

If DT had used his alert, he would have no more PR abilities and revealing himself as the vet would have been a benefit for town.

[bozotheclown]

Why would anyone else out themselves as JOAT if the JOAT NK has not been used yet? You would be just asking for Mafia to rollblock and kill you tonight (or at the very least RB if the doctor is forced to save). If Vecna is lying and there is a separate JOAT, it is far better to use the JOAT NK tonight on Vecna.

Why would one of the two remaining scum ensure their eventual lynch by claiming a town PR?

He was one of the remaining four on Peter. If he hadn't made his JOAT claim he would definitely have been a target today. If he is scum he gives himself a chance to setup a third mislynch.

So you believe Vecna is JOAT...but only attack me ans Squigs for our vote on you. Is you are not scum scum, is your excuse for Vecna's three bad calls is that he is just really bad at this game??

You do not have to be bad at this game to make three incorrect scum reads. I am not attacking you and Squigs for voting for me, I suspect you because you both voted for me after I pointed out that you and Squigs were the most likely to have bussed teacher. I think you decided to try to take advantage of a confirmed town voting for me, and you are already hedging for when I flip town.

[bozotheclown]

Mafia killing Brain is odd as he would probably be an easy lynch. Is the scum team inexperienced perhaps or are they just having fun making fools of us?

But now I will look at this in another way. Which players should not have made it past N3 if they were not on the scum team.

The list of people that should not have survived 3 NK nights, I am sure that we have at least one scum in this group (if not 2):
1. Vecna: His fake JOAT claim! There is no way that JOAT Vecna would claim JOAT before he had completed all 3 submissions. He is too good for that. So what is the purpose then. Is it to provoke a possible newbie town JOAT to CC him to create an easy NK next day. Or is it to get some credibility in Town for being town himself? The latter reasoning seems pretty flawed, so I assume it is to provoke a counter claim from the real town JOAT.
2. Squigs44: Looks very towny and presents his read in a very credible way in the same kind of manner as Teacher did. I know this type from work. When they do not know much they instead present long detailed reports which they email everyone. This way they get cred for doing a serious hard study and because of this they must know more that then others on the subject. The problem is that the reports never make any good or valid conclusions at the end. Anyhow this is the reason scum should be afraid of him in case he is town. So strange he survived this long! He joined the Teacher wagon very late. (37 min before EoD2 making it 7-5). After that it would have impossible for scum Squigs to back out of that vote.
3. rdrivera2005: semi scum/town as usual - probably a strategy not to scare anyone off, neither Town nor Scum.
4. Foxcastle: Sounds towny to me. I have not really got what this quarrel with worcej is all about. (me being lazy I guess)

5. peterlund: I must have been so off in all my reads after we caught Teacher, so scum decided to keep me along for a while more. I may have been a useful tool for them.

Not high priority scum targets that easily can survive many night into LYLO:
- BismarckAlive,
- bozotheclown,
- damo666,
- flash2015,
- worcej
The second scum and the SK may well be in this list if not all are in the first list.

##VOTE VECNA for his fake JOAT claim trying to provoke a CC from the real JOAT.

Vecna made his JOAT claim right at EON, so it did not do anything to risk his being able to use his third ability tonight.

[Squigs44]

If DT had been targeted by the SK while he was on alert N2, he would have been notified, and he would have informed us. I think you would know that, so this post seems fabricated.

He would have been notified that he was visited, but would not have known who visited him, so this information wouldn't have been very useful. If he did let us know, he would have had to have claimed Veteran. I think he valued keeping his identity as a PR hidden over the knowledge that someone visited him. Regardless of whether this theory is correct or not, the fact that a confirmed town scumread you bolsters my confidence in my own scumread of you.

If DT had used his alert, he would have no more PR abilities and revealing himself as the vet would have been a benefit for town.

Except that at the end of the game role claiming helps a lot, especially with outing the SK. It's better to have three PRs left than three VTs, because the SK would have to counterclaim a specific role rather than VT. I agree that if DT was a top wagon that claiming would help town from a mislynch, but since DT wasn't a top wagon, it wasn't necessary to claim. Again, this is just a theory, and my vote does not hinge on it's correctness.

[Squigs44]

Mafia killing Brain is odd as he would probably be an easy lynch. Is the scum team inexperienced perhaps or are they just having fun making fools of us?

But now I will look at this in another way. Which players should not have made it past N3 if they were not on the scum team.

The list of people that should not have survived 3 NK nights, I am sure that we have at least one scum in this group (if not 2):
1. Vecna: His fake JOAT claim! There is no way that JOAT Vecna would claim JOAT before he had completed all 3 submissions. He is too good for that. So what is the purpose then. Is it to provoke a possible newbie town JOAT to CC him to create an easy NK next day. Or is it to get some credibility in Town for being town himself? The latter reasoning seems pretty flawed, so I assume it is to provoke a counter claim from the real town JOAT.
2. Squigs44: Looks very towny and presents his read in a very credible way in the same kind of manner as Teacher did. I know this type from work. When they do not know much they instead present long detailed reports which they email everyone. This way they get cred for doing a serious hard study and because of this they must know more that then others on the subject. The problem is that the reports never make any good or valid conclusions at the end. Anyhow this is the reason scum should be afraid of him in case he is town. So strange he survived this long! He joined the Teacher wagon very late. (37 min before EoD2 making it 7-5). After that it would have impossible for scum Squigs to back out of that vote.
3. rdrivera2005: semi scum/town as usual - probably a strategy not to scare anyone off, neither Town nor Scum.
4. Foxcastle: Sounds towny to me. I have not really got what this quarrel with worcej is all about. (me being lazy I guess)

5. peterlund: I must have been so off in all my reads after we caught Teacher, so scum decided to keep me along for a while more. I may have been a useful tool for them.

Not high priority scum targets that easily can survive many night into LYLO:
- BismarckAlive,
- bozotheclown,
- damo666,
- flash2015,
- worcej
The second scum and the SK may well be in this list if not all are in the first list.

##VOTE VECNA for his fake JOAT claim trying to provoke a CC from the real JOAT.

Vecna made his JOAT claim right at EON, so it did not do anything to risk his being able to use his third ability tonight.

Except mafia could RB him tonight and prevent him from using his ability.
However, if Vecna was afraid of being lynched today anyway, then the timing of his reveal makes sense.
@peter - If it is a fake claim, then the real JOAT will kill him tonight anyway, so why lynch him when there is that chance his claim is real. You would risk lynching a PR when he will already die if it is fake?

[bozotheclown]

@Squigs: You pointed out that flash's vote on teacher was potential bussing, but you said you town read him for his play. What about flash's play makes you town read him?

[Squigs44]

@Squigs: You pointed out that flash's vote on teacher was potential bussing, but you said you town read him for his play. What about flash's play makes you town read him?

His gameplay has been more active than a lot of other players. He has questioned players, put forth original ideas, and scumhunted. His attacks are aggressive but not reachy, and his views on players have changed as gameplay has gone by in a natural way. Yes, it's very possible that Flash could be scum, but when weighing all of the evidence together, there are better options of mafia than him.
If he is scum, he is most likely SK.

[peterlund]

And we know SK is only killing Town at the moment, and SK can only be lynched (while Mafia can be killed by JOAT).

I think if the EOD wagons are only Worcej and Foxcastle, either death will be good for Town.

Sorry but this is BS. Who do you think will die if there Day X was 2 scum and one SK remaining? The SK would die ofc!

So the SK has a self-preservation instinct to kill off the scum team first and then stay hidden among the remaining Town 'til he has killed off them all.

[bozotheclown]

@Squigs: When you tried to vote for Jamie at EOD D2, did you know that if your vote had counted (and therefore flash's vote had counted), you would have tied the teacher and Jamie wagons?

[Squigs44]

@Squigs: When you tried to vote for Jamie at EOD D2, did you know that if your vote had counted (and therefore flash's vote had counted), you would have tied the teacher and Jamie wagons?

No. Votes were moving very quickly, and it was impossible to track what was happening. Add to that the fact that some people posted a vote for Jamie multiple times, and I thought that the Jamie train was bigger than it actually was.

[Vecna]

Why would anyone else out themselves as JOAT if the JOAT NK has not been used yet? You would be just asking for Mafia to rollblock and kill you tonight (or at the very least RB if the doctor is forced to save). If Vecna is lying and there is a separate JOAT, it is far better to use the JOAT NK tonight on Vecna.

Why would one of the two remaining scum ensure their eventual lynch by claiming a town PR?

He was one of the remaining four on Peter. If he hadn't made his JOAT claim he would definitely have been a target today. If he is scum he gives himself a chance to setup a third mislynch.

So you believe Vecna is JOAT...but only attack me ans Squigs for our vote on you. Is you are not scum scum, is your excuse for Vecna's three bad calls is that he is just really bad at this game??

or maybe i was just fake tunneling to not get nk'd? help mafia without actually gettibg my targets lynched so they think ull not be dangerous

[rdrivera2005]

I am having a hard time catching the game as I am on a park with my daughter. Hope to be at home at EOD.
I have read the last pages and my problem with Vecna's theory of both scum voting Teacher is that I know I am town and if he is wrong on one of the other two we will end with at least two myslinches and we can't afford it. If we don't hit scum or SK today we could be in lylo tomorrow.
Of the current wagons I think Fox have been scummier then Bozo. Worcej is still on my radar as he become really quiet after the pressure on him vanished.

For now ##vote Foxcastle

[damo666]

##vote worcej

let's put some pressure back then

btw if Vecna survives the day as seems likely and he ain't Jack could the real ripper do for him tonight please.

[peterlund]

Except mafia could RB him tonight and prevent him from using his ability.
However, if Vecna was afraid of being lynched today anyway, then the timing of his reveal makes sense.
@peter - If it is a fake claim, then the real JOAT will kill him tonight anyway, so why lynch him when there is that chance his claim is real. You would risk lynching a PR when he will already die if it is fake?

Yes after my last minute post N3 where I put Vecna number 3 after Brain and DT (who happened to die), Vecna put together a fast claim in all haste misspelling "track" with "travk". This was clearly not planned, but a reaction to my post. Yes he did this in desperation trying to get someone else than himself lynched D4.

As I indicated, I do not want to risk any other town to be lynched just because we wait and see with Vecna. And Vecna may very well be our SK too, making him immune at night.

The claim itself is so fake it ever can be with Mr Vecna. Why in hell waste your last action just to be RBed by scum? There is no explanation for this shit. Remember that we have to do with a mafia pro here. The only reason that he slipped this time was that he drafted this fake claim under extreme time pressure (less than a minute). Even a PROs like him fail sometimes then. And I am sure this is what we saw there. He may very well be SK too, that only can be lynched at day time not by any JOAT at night.

So again join me on ##VOTE VECNA