webdiplomacy.net

@ Phil - A switch at this point by Yav would require far more explanation than a switch by Worcej... of course now you just have me second guessing whether Yav/Worcej are the scum team and they are making my vote the cause of our loss.

@ Sheep - i would appreciate your confession about the other scumteam member.

So the mafia have three basic strategies available to them today.
The first is to go hard against the innocent. A DrCJG lynch is pretty implausible, so it would be against whoever of sheep/worcej/yavuz is not scum. In our current scenario, that makes sheep the innocent and yavuz/worcej the scumteam.
The second is to go half against the innocent, half bus. Say, one of them wagons the other, the other wagons the innocent, and they hope to get two wagons built, and if they get both wagons rolling, they either get a townie lynched cleanly, do last-minute shenanigans to get the townie lynched, or even let the bus win. Here, the busee would have to be sheep, who is the only one voted by someone he is not voting. sheep would be redirecting onto yavuz, which would make worcej sheep's partner.
The third is to bus hard. Both bus each other, see who wins, and try to leverage that tomorrow. This would have to be sheep/yavuz.

So the question is, which strategy did the mafia go for, or, even more importantly, which strategy is the least likely (we should lynch whoever is innocent according to the least likely possibility)?

Worth keeping in mind - the mafia would have discussed this yesterday, but without knowing I was doc. They might have expected a doc claim, but without knowing from who. So they could have been working with a larger or different pool of potential innocents to lynch.

Time to consolidate, I guess.
I think that yavuz/worcej is more likely than sheep/worcej.

##VOTE yavuzovic

VOTE COUNT 4.3

Sheepsaysmeep (3) - Yavuzovic, Worcej, DrCJG
Yavuzovic (2) - Sheepsaysmeep, Phil_a_s

Currently SHEEPSAYSMEEP is set to be lynched.

Day ends in 3 hours and 30 minutes.

(Well more like 3 hours and 34 minutes. My clock was off.)

What, even after I brought a ton of evidence in front of you?

Is that sarcasm?

Should I gather them for you to see them?

whatever

phil's town

there's a town on me the game is basically lost

@everyone - the biggest thing right now is I do not want to see a repeat of the previous game, which was the last second Snowy 'swap to fail' at LYLO (or was it MYLO? Either way, somewhat same thing). I've been 1/3 on my reads so far (Bancroft being PR is what I am counting a success since town/PR are 'almost' the same lol...) so I am hoping I can finish the game with at least being 2/4 and getting us to another day to get his partner.

To add more to the thoughts of scum busing: to me, it seems like that would be the unwise choice to bus unless DrCJG is the other scum. I say this because DrCJG has been the consistent town read and if sheep/yavu is the scum team and are indeed bussing, then they would be setting themselves up for failure because the remaining votes would be focused at the other scum player for the next day.

This further makes me believe that between the options, sheep is the logical only choice unless the scum team of sheep/yav plan to perform some last minute vote changes to swing it one way or the other. The distancing theory regarding bussing makes sense at first, but would be immediately undone going into the final votes and reveal who the other scum player is quickly. I know I am going to try my hardest to be online at EOD because of this (thankfully today is a Friday and usually light @ work)

yavuzovic wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 21, 2018 2:09 pm

Keep this in mind:

sheepsaysmeep wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:20 pm

yavu, bancroft are scumleans

worcej is null

^Final votes + this post, I believe sheep and Worcej are scums.
Everybody can be wrong but he is also giving two innocent (assumed I am town) names as scumleans. Everyone may be wrong but this is so suspect.
##vote sheepsaysmeep

Sheep obviously points worcej here. ^
Okay - not a ton of evidence but sheep and worcej didn't hardly interact along the game except touching slightly upon the other one !votes! Now worcej is voting for sheep but I'm sure this will change.
And phil, you avoid voting sheep and I'm trying to find any reason for that. I'm starting to scumread you even there's nobody doc-claiming but you.

If phil isn't doc and there's another doctor, claim now. Anyone including worcej would be more convincing than Phil. In a scenario that phil is mafia, real doc might think claiming now may attract some votes so it better playing like a VT. I ain't a doc and this will not change - I'm sure about my VT role. But I expect anyone else to doc-claim. If this happens, phil is likely mafia with sheep.

In any scenario in my head, sheep is a part of the scumteam:
1) Sheep/Worcej
2) Sheep/phil
3) Sheep/CJG

I was almost sure about sheep/worcej, but Phil's and Worcej's last actions changed everything. I think 1 and 2 are same likely, 3 is a bit less possible than them but it may be as well - we shouldn't miss any possibility.

I'm not bussing anybody. In order to prove that,
##end
I think we mustn't end this phase early - it's LyLo, too important to risk. But I'm trying to show that my vote is locked on sheepsaysmeep.

Dunno whether to interrupt this nonsense, or whether to let it stew for a while longer. Breakdowns at LYLO are not alignment indicative (nor is apathy and resignation fwiw), but we're still learning stuff here.

VOTE COUNT 4.4

Sheepsaysmeep (3) - Yavuzovic(END), Worcej, DrCJG
Yavuzovic (2) - Sheepsaysmeep, Phil_a_s

Currently SHEEPSAYSMEEP is set to be lynched.

Day ends in 2 hours and 30 minutes.

Riddle me this yavuz. If sheep is mafia, and has a partner who is not you, then unless that partner is me, that partner can move onto you, both scum can join you in voting for end, and we lose. Sure, maybe they'd get caught on the way, but it's a possibility. Why do you open us up to this? If you did not consider this possibility, how? How does it occur to you to make a symbolic vote that does nothing for anyone, except potentially allowing for one of your two most probable scumteams to win?

I simply don't see how a towny completely fails to consider the impact of their actions like that. I'm not saying it's a scum plot - it's a play that just doesn't make sense as town.

FWIW I believe (though I can't be fully certain) that this is in fact not a busing attempt, and I would not actually be too opposed to moving to worcej, who seems more likely to be scum with sheep than yavuz does at this point.

I don't understand what do you mean or you don't understand what I mean.
I'm expressing that we are going to lose because of you. If you're really not mafia, then get off my wagon. If you don't, everything will be like what you said and we will lose. If you are mafia do whatever you can do, all the towns are on your scummate.

I am also not busing anyone and feel confident in my sheep vote to get rid of one scum. I also vote ##end to prove it, but like yav also don't want to pre-mature end discussion or comments, but just prove that I am confident based off actions (especially the last cry from him) that sheep is scum.

I'm honestly having trouble imagining how the scum team could be anyone other than yavuz/worcej at this point. If either of you are town we deserve to lose. How I miss the times when I could mislead myself into thinking damo666 or Bancroft's behavior was inexplicable and rather scummy.

I will be around for EoD. Please do not precipitate it by voting end with these clowns.