MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

[sheepsaysmeep]

hi i forgot about this

[sheepsaysmeep]

@sheep: I want to explore your nulls a bit more, since some of them at least have started to post content. What do you think of Phil/Worcej/Xy? Even if still within null/random range, do you have any reactions?

no not really

im not fully caught up and i prolly wont be until like tmrw when i stop being lazy but nothing from them really points strongly enough towards a certain alignment for me yet

[teacher2]

##callGM - how will we be dealing w the downtime in the bold post at the top. By my count that’s the EoD2.

[worcej]

Im doing a catchup read since this morning, but Id love to play with either of the two online right now.

@sheep: I want to explore your nulls a bit more, since some of them at least have started to post content. What do you think of Phil/Worcej/Xy? Even if still within null/random range, do you have any reactions?

@Worcej: You have had the most posts today that I have to reflect upon -- was that simply a function of wanting to catch up or do you think you are going to be a frequent poster generally?

It is definitely my goal to be more active on a regular basis, including evenings for me. I was trying to reply to certain things I missed and then I cross-posted you this AM so I was replying to those comments.

When you started posting earlier, I was browsing on my cell phone returning home from work - so thus my non-engagement. If you see me post very little substance or short posts, it will be because of that - FYI.

[BancroftS]

Hi all,

Apologies for reading and not replying! I’m based in the UK and been preparing for my holiday (whilst I’m away I’ll be on East Coast US time so probably more active!)

I’m going to do a re-read of everything and see where my thoughts are with everyone. I think teacher is putting ALOT of time and effort in, which is definitely helping, but is that to try and mask hidden intentions?

I’ll do a detailed post in an hr or two discussing my thoughts whilst I have time when in an airport lounge with a beer!

[phil_a_s]

Thanks to teacher2 for keeping the thread alive while I was asleep. I do wish everyone had your rate of activity, but that is an unfair standard, I suppose.

I'm looking forward to seeing what we get when sheep, Bancroft and damo catch up.

Don't have much to say about the recent thread, though, so I think I'll start composing a readlist.

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 1.4

Damo666 (3) - Sheepsaysmeep, phil_a_s, Worcej
DrCJG (2) - Damo666, xy4
Marneus_Calgar (2) - DrCJG, BancroftS
BancroftS (1) - Teacher 2

Currently Damo666 is set to be lynched. You have 14.7 hours remaining in Day 1.

NOTE: You do not need to "unvote" before moving your vote, you can just input the new vote.

[Jamiet99uk]

GM NOTE:

Yes, I have seen the site message about the server update. I am in communication with the site admins to gauge the full impact - if necessary, 24 hours will be added to the effected phase (so that EoD / EoN occurs at the normal time, on the following day).

[BancroftS]

So I've been reading the thread and making notes as I went along. Please find notes below, and I'll make another post with my 'readlist'!

DrCRG made his first post - sheep then replied 6 minutes later not defending himself, but only saying DrCRG was villagers

Following that, sheep said he could spot scummy behaviour easily in day 1 - interesting

Phil provided info on what a read list was - thanks!

Sheep suggested the cop tactic - would this suggestion try to make him seem like he’s benefiting the town to cover himself up?

Then sheep voted Damo without him ever commenting… interesting?

I only just read that there may not be a cop present… does this still work with the Cop tactic presented by sheep earlier?

DrCRG posted, and again sheep immediately said he looked like he was figuring out how to help the town (I’m thinking these guys are the two mafia)

I agree with Phils comment about how the Cop option “It requires both the cop and most of us to act competently, which we can't really be sure of.”

Sheep tried to pursue his cop idea again - this may have been to confuse/move the conversation on from him defending DrCRG again?

Phil then made a few comments that again, seemed to generally help the town (cheers Phil)

Sheep posted a few after, AGAIN just defending DrCRG

Teacher did his first long post helping explain the rules, and how ‘Hypo’ can help out the townsfolk

Teacher also commented about how lurking in a newb game could be seen as weak - I disagree and think sometimes you just don’t have time to post. However, I see his point.

Xy4 posted late, however as he’s UK based I can see why! I’m interested into why he voted for Phil though?

I may have missed this somewhere? People saying Demo666 has a vote up. - I can’t see it?

I agree with Phil saying Teacher seems legit - I think he’s trying to help us all out. More communication over the coming days will help us out a lot!

Teacher provided us his first overview of everyone - I found this very informative and makes me think he’s definitely Town

WorceJ then provided a big list of information, only following the fact he was voted on by Teacher.

DrCRG then stated he thought Sheep was town, without much evidence, just that he agreed with Teacher - I think this might point even more towards them both being Mafia?

There was abit more conversation, but nothing that raised suspicion against anyone

Phil pointed out that I was reading the thread - I’ll keep doing this! I read on my phone to try and keep up and then when I have the time I’ll reread and post a response - just because I’m online I’m probably not going to post straight away :)

WorceJ posted defending himself, which I seem to believe. He voted yay on both polls, which I think will help the town.

I think there’s negative feelings towards Damo666 just because he has been doing short posts - I think it’s justified, but hopefully if he can explain his thoughts this will clear up.

There was abit more chat, but again, nothing which raised suspicion!

[BancroftS]

Therefore:

Worcej - Null/Town

I think a lack of communication at the start made him seem suspicious, but he’s fixed that, and posts that he has made show he’s leaning town.

DrCJG - Mafia, along with Sheep.

Nothing that he’s really done, it’s just Sheeps response to him.

Damo666 - Null

I think more communication is needed, just to see what he thinks of the current posts

Sheepsaysmeep - Mafia

I think he’s too quick to jump to conclusions, and there’s just something about the posts that raises a red flag

Marneus_Calgar - Obvious Null

Teacher2 - Town

Teacher has helped us all out, and explained how everything will benefit the townsfolk. Again, there’s nothing to prove it, but no red flags.

xy4 - Null/Town

I’d be interested into more information for the vote for Phil?

Phil_a_s - Null/Town

I’m leaning more towards town for Phil. Again, the lack of any red flags, and my two other suspects are just more suspicious!


Due to this, I am changing to ##VOTE Sheep. I encourage other townsfolk to do the same! I understand that currently DrCRG is in 2nd place to be lynched... But I trust him more than Sheep.

[damo666]

Love the summary Bancroft and tend to agree with your DrCJG and Sheep scum assumption.

Fake Cop Issue: I'm unclear as to whether this benefits town or scum most but slight lean to it more hindering scum than helping so vote YES. Btw re my 'fake Dr' post I now realise that was pretty silly but I was mainly pointing out only 50% chance of Cop.

Daily Readlists: Obviously a good idea, vote YES.

[damo666]

My general thoughts on theory as a complete newbie.

INFO to be gleaned from VOTING

Clearly Prima Facie to a townie any other player is 75% chance town, 25% scum.
clear
Now if A votes for B then (to a townie) if A is townie then prob (B) town if A town = (3/4)*(5/7)= 15/28. If A is scum then presumably B is town* so prob (B) town if A scum = 1/4. Therefore total prob (B) town = 15/28 + 1/4 = 22/28, so 78.5% cf. 75%. Virtually no difference.

* I realise Scum may initially vote for scum to confuse and later retract but that only serves to reduce the 78.5%.

SO IN CONCLUSION no effective info can be gleaned (day 1) objectively from voting.

Subjectively I guess frequent vote changing would indicate scum.

INFO from posts

a) verbal diarrhoea can be safely ignored
b) obfuscatory/confusing posts => scum
c) clear/helpful post => town (possibly)
d) short posts => busy (self defending here obviously)
e) lack of posts => busy/scum

If anyone fundamentally disagrees with any of this please shout.

Next up my first readlist....

[phil_a_s]

All my reads are weak because, well, this is D1, and it hasn't been a very lively one yet either.

Town(ish):
DrCJG: has been consistently useful so far, fairly active, no real scummy behavior. I don't put much stock in either of the meta arguments, personally.

teacher2: same as above except without the meta arguments. Would prefer more direct engagement with others, but teacher2 still does better on that than most.

??? (distinguished from null by us having information, but it's either weak or goes both ways):

worcej: the "game is going to go quickly" comment was odd, but some of his other participation has been rather town-y

BancroftS: the only real participation so far has been the summary and the reads. I will comment on those in a separate post later. They do not exactly inspire confidence, but they're not all that suspicious.

sheep: was active early and proposing hypo would be an odd thing for scum to do, attaching himself to DrCJG was a bit suspicious, but could just be a stream of consciousness thing, and has sort of avoided attention or conflict so far, which I don't like

Null (pure): Marneus, for obvious reasons

Scum(ish):

xy4: I don't like lurkers. xy4 has made one post that wasn't either process advocacy, filling space, or process dispute, and it's not a very good post, most notably this part

DrCJG - You are talking lots about how other people are acting, and as Teacher said, this is different to how you acted as Mafia in a different game. It may seem as though I’m jumping to conclusions but I think this change in behaviour might be intentional.

##VOTE DrCJG

This is just extremely odd to me. Unlike others, who at least put some effort into their WIFOM suspicions of DrCJG, or acknowledge that they tell us little, xy4 appears to be happy to vote someone for not acting the way they acted when they were scum in a different game. We don't even have a sample of DrCJG as a townie, as far as I am aware. I know we don't have much information on day 1, but still.

damo666: honestly this is perhaps not so strong a read as the one on xy4, but that's because there's less information to work with, as I write this, damo666 has started posting, so we'll have that information soon, I suppose, and for now, my vote stays

[xy4]

Bancroft, I am no longer voting for Phil, but in case you were wondering he seemed as though he was rejecting a strategy that at that point had been suggested to directly help the town.

[damo666]

Further (newbie) thought to Voting theory:

I suspect that towards the end of day 1 (with say half hour to go) scum will avoid being in the highest vote but perhaps 2nd or 3rd in list for insurance.

[phil_a_s]

Bancroft's read list is preceded by a long summary with embedded commentary. I am not a fan of general summaries - if we want to know what happened, we'll read the thread.

Therefore:

DrCJG - Mafia, along with Sheep.

Nothing that he’s really done, it’s just Sheeps response to him.

This is an odd read to me. If sheep is mafia, which some of the early posts do suggest, then I would not expect an apparently experienced player like sheep to tie themselves to their buddy on page 1. Perhaps a true newbie would, but I suspect scum generally want to make friends with townies, ideally competent townies, in the hopes of getting a defender later.

Sheepsaysmeep - Mafia

I think he’s too quick to jump to conclusions, and there’s just something about the posts that raises a red flag

I don't feel quite so strongly about this, but I can see where this comes from, at least.

The rest of the reads have little information tied to them directly (moreso in the summary, but that's not a great place to put it really), but seem fine

[phil_a_s]

One thing I forgot to mention that does lend a bit legitimacy to Bancroft, and suggests that his attempt to hunt for the full scumteam rather than just scum independently of each other is townmotivated rather than scummotivated, even though it's on the whole not a great scumteam proposition, is that I would expect a scum player to find two people, read them as scum, and then vote in accordance with that.

However, Bancroft does follow his own logic by voting for sheep, who does not have a wagon, over DrCJG, who does. This makes sense because Bancroft's theory of DrCJG's guilt only makes sense if sheep flips scum.

One way of recognizing scum is that they do not follow the internal logic of their own statements, because unlike townies, their reasons and their reasoning are separate.

[phil_a_s]

My general thoughts on theory as a complete newbie.

INFO to be gleaned from VOTING
[snipped mathematics]

SO IN CONCLUSION no effective info can be gleaned (day 1) objectively from voting.

Subjectively I guess frequent vote changing would indicate scum.

I feel like voting is better understood as simply another type of statement, albeit one with concrete possible results. You are correct that mathematical analysis of voting, even before WIFOM concerns, is rather pointless. Instead, we should treat votes as a reflection of someone's position.

INFO from posts

a) verbal diarrhoea can be safely ignored
b) obfuscatory/confusing posts => scum
c) clear/helpful post => town (possibly)
d) short posts => busy (self defending here obviously)
e) lack of posts => busy/scum

If anyone fundamentally disagrees with any of this please shout.

Next up my first readlist....

I don't think we can actually ignore a). It still contains information, just not in the content itself. The existence of it itself is worth considering.
I think b) and c) are matters more of personal style than alignment, though obviously confusing posts do benefit scum and clear posts benefit town. If we can identify motive behind that style, then it becomes evidence, but I would be wary of lynching someone for incompetence. d) and e), yeah, more or less.

I do appreciate you bringing attention to not just the content of posts, but also the style in which they are presented. The meaning of the text is contained in both, and the style can be harder to fake. Perhaps this is sort of what gut reads are, in a way.

[BancroftS]

Phil, thanks for your thoughts regarding my summary. I’ve never played a game of mafia before, or really even heard of it before I signed up!

I’ll avoid submitting the commentary in future, but I thought it might be useful for you to see my points as I was reading along. I’m going to try and get on top of this more from now on!

Following your read, I’m thinking sheep may have tried to link himself to DrCRJ in order for him to gain a defender later in the game? I keep reading the posts and sheep just sounds suspicious. I think I’m pretty confident, Phil, you’re part of the town.

[damo666]

Readlist

Townlean

Bancroft - I like his long post and Dr CJG/Sheep opinion, tallies with my own thoughts. Slightly concerned by vote for Sheep rather than DrCJG but only slight.

Teacher - Very helpul but two vote changes worry me.

Worc - sounds 'townie' but hope he changes his vote

Town/null

XY4 - not alot to go on but change of vote seemed reasonable

Null

phil - cannot get a read. I understand why he voted me but hope he reconsiders. If not will get suspicious.

Marneus - no info

Scumlean

Dr CJG - as per Bancroft plus his unvote of Sheep. Btw my early vote of DrCJG was partially initial scumlean and (perhaps more so) to fulfil my vote obligation as I was concerned out how engaged I could get.

Sheep - again as per Bancroft and his stressing of DrCJG as town has me suspicious. However, his advocacy of Fake Cop confuses me but maybe he knows that as this is a newbie game we may misuse and be of more help to scum? A change of vote away from me may dampen my scumlean.