MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

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phil_a_s
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#141 Post by phil_a_s » Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:21 am

damo666, thanks for your reads.

Townreading someone because you agree with them is not a great policy, I would say. Yes, if you're right about who is scum, then someone who reads them as scum is either scum or bussing (though since you have a whole team in mind, this doesn't even matter)

Changing your vote is not scummy. Changing your vote generally means changing your mind, and you're far more likely to do that with incomplete information. What is scummy is not caring about your vote, but that is distinct from changing it.

Asking people to unvote you in a reads post is, uh, suspicious, but also almost too dumb to be mafia. If you want to defend yourself, do that.

Townreading someone because they vote for the same person as you is not a great policy. See above.

Threatening someone with a scumread for voting for you is also pretty suspicious.

Scumreading someone by association but targeting the associate is not a great plan, and not voting for someone you find suspicious is not a suspicious thing to do.

Making your scumread conditional on whether or not someone is voting for you is also bad.

This is not a good reads post. It is more or less equal parts misguided and scummy. My vote will remain where it is. The only redeeming grace of damo666 is that scum would probably be at least a bit more careful. Occam's razor tells me to ignore that and find scummy behavior scummy.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#142 Post by damo666 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:38 am

I would contend my post reflects newbieness rather than scuminess (as I'm beginning to suspect you are fully aware)

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#143 Post by phil_a_s » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:09 pm

Yes, newbies think everyone else has the same information and thought process they do, they OMGUS, they lurk, they borrow other people's arguments instead of making their own, they tunnel, and those are also the main reasons I scumread you. I still think you're more likely to be scum than anyone else, let alone anyone with a viable lynch. Being a newb is not mutually exclusive with being scum.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#144 Post by damo666 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:20 pm

OMGUS?

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#145 Post by phil_a_s » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:27 pm

Sorry, that means Oh My God You Suck, and it refers to voting or suspecting someone because they are going after you.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#146 Post by damo666 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:37 pm

OK thanks

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#147 Post by teacher2 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:32 pm

I wanted to post this later, but given our European players and our 3pm deadlines, Im going to go ahead and start the consensus process early.

I like NONE of the wagons as of the last vote count(Damo, Dr, and Marneus) and really want to lynch off them. Here's why:
  • Damo: Has been a leading wagon all day, but I havent seen anyone try to defend him or really drive another wagon. The Dr/Marneus wagons dont count, since its been apparent for a while that the Dr wagon isnt going to take off with all his town reads, and Marneus is primarily a pressure spot. To be sure, I could now be seen as defending him, but the length of time Damo has been sitting in the lead suggests something of scum fiddling while town kills itself.
  • DrCJG: My strongest townread. The reasons people have for voting him seem poor. XY is because he thinks the meta change is intentional, without thinking through WHY that could be; Damo is acknowledgedly because of SHEEP's behavor.
  • Marneus: Modkill. Since they have not even logged into the site as best I can tell, the best information we have on this slot is that it is 75% likely to be town. Id rather let Yavuz fill it with more info tomorrow and vote someone today with some information, however slight.
Im on Bancroft right now, but he has posted more since. I dont have strong scumreads. My PoE pool atm is Bancroft, XY, and Sheep.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#148 Post by teacher2 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:37 pm

*and Worcej. Probably in that order.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#149 Post by DrCJG » Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:48 pm

Just finished catching up... I have a considerable amount I want to respond to, which is a good thing cause at least it means there is some activity.

I see teacher and phil are on... feel free to ask me anything while I go back and respond to specific things. If yall are still on in the next hour or so I am sure I will have some questions for you too.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#150 Post by teacher2 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:55 pm

I may not appear on, but I will be flitting back and forth a bit and will gladly talk with you whenever you are caught up. As for questions, Id like you to react to the thought that this is very similar to our previous day one.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#151 Post by BancroftS » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:37 pm

teacher2 wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:32 pm
Im on Bancroft right now, but he has posted more since. I dont have strong scumreads. My PoE pool atm is Bancroft, XY, and Sheep.
Teacher, I'd like to know why you suspect me? Is it because I didn't post that much? I've tried to explain my thought process throughout...

Also why do you state that DrCRG is your strongest TownRead? You've given a statement as to why other peoples arguments are poor (I agree, my argument only works with Sheep), but not why you believe he is town?

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#152 Post by DrCJG » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:48 pm

BancroftS wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:04 am
@Bancroft - I am actually ok with your stream of consciousness posting (or summary posting) though I'd rather see you post smaller responses as they are happening (I also tend to post in blocks, but i think it makes people give it less attention so I am working on it)

I think you bring up a great point that Sheep did seem to quickly befriend me and I hadn't noticed how he had been quick to respond after my posts. That said, I doubt if we were both scum that we would buddy each other. With only two mafia, I expect them to try and keep a good distance (though that is WIFOM).

You stated that I didnt provide much evidence for my read on sheep. In case I didnt... I think sheep comes off very relaxed like he isn't trying to blend in, yet he is putting helpful organization and strategy into place to try and find scum (not just the hypocop but also things like arguing against early lynching lurkers). He also didnt seem upset that he had a vote on him (something I believe only Damo has done) I believe he is the most experienced in the game atm and probably does fear getting NK'd. If he is mafia he will be dangerous but it will also be suspicious if he makes it to late game.

I urge you to be careful thinking that helpful = town... teacher is coming off very town to me because he is being helpful... but he has stated himself this is not alignment indicative.

Overall Bancroft after his exchange with Phil comes off more new than scummy to me. He does get a little defensive but his rational seems genuine and I can understand where he is coming from. I think he moves out of scum lean for me and into null.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#153 Post by DrCJG » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:49 pm

damo666 wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:01 am
Talk about option b (obfuscatory/confusing posts)... I may have an engineering background and enjoy statistics but this post about why voting is statistically not valuable may not have been the most easily digestible way to say that you felt D1 voting doesn't give much information.

Moreover, I think you understate the "subjective" side. While the votes themselves are only small data points, the shifts in votes can be very telling... In a game with only two scum, if one of them is on the chopping block (particularly this early) they will have to steer the vote away.

I also found this part of your readlist to be odd:
damo666 wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:48 am
Readlist

Townlean

Bancroft - I like his long post and Dr CJG/Sheep opinion, tallies with my own thoughts. Slightly concerned by vote for Sheep rather than DrCJG but only slight.

Scumlean

Dr CJG - as per Bancroft plus his unvote of Sheep. Btw my early vote of DrCJG was partially initial scumlean and (perhaps more so) to fulfil my vote obligation as I was concerned out how engaged I could get.

Sheep - again as per Bancroft and his stressing of DrCJG as town has me suspicious. However, his advocacy of Fake Cop confuses me but maybe he knows that as this is a newbie game we may misuse and be of more help to scum? A change of vote away from me may dampen my scumlean.
In your read of Bancroft you are concerned he votes for Sheep over me... and then state that your early vote of me was largely to fulfill your vote obligation?

Furthermore, you seem to think Sheep and I are both scum but think that if he takes his vote of you that it will make you scum read him less...

Too many redflags here and it feels just a little different than Bancroft's new player mistakes... ##VOTE Damo

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#154 Post by DrCJG » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:53 pm

@Teacher2 - I see your point about lack of movement in the leading wagons and now that you have brought it up I can see some similarities to D1 in our previous game where as mafia I could just let town fight itself. But, it may be too early and there may not be enough pressure yet to make mafia worried.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#155 Post by teacher2 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:56 pm

BancroftS wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:37 pm
[Several questions for teacher]
Regarding why I suspect you: TBH, I dont have great reasons. First, as my post said, its a weak read. Second, something I have yet to say, but I think my D1 reads in general are the weakest part of my game. I fancy myself good at Vote count/night kill/associational analysis, but I know Im not good at reading individual post motivations because Im too credulous.

With that out of the way, my reasons for including you in the PoE pool were the lurking for the reasons previously given, and some interesting associational data I dont particularly want to explore right now. At bottom, Im just as comfortable with XY, but didnt have a good reason to move my vote so just posted my pool.

Regarding why I townread DrCJG: I thought I had explained this in my reads post on the bottom of 4, with more detail in the wall on the bottom of page 7, but its largely agreement with Sheep's observations. Dr's posts feel less careful this game, and I can see genuine solvey motivations (like his reaction to the hypo issue, which I like ALOT more than XY's).

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#156 Post by worcej » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:57 pm

@teacher - I think the reason no one else has been driving a different wagon than Damo is the fact that his initial actions and discussion so far has not been very information filled. Look at post #140, which is his reads, and all I still see is he voted for DrCJG right away because of 'scumlean' and it was just to fulfill the post and vote obligation. Again, I also want to add that during the vote post he specifically called for sheep to change his vote, which sheep voted against damo (arguably fair to call for) but without any context or defense. The fact it was like a plea really makes me lean scum on damo.

@damo - phil hit the major notes with his post/analysis, but I again am seeing no context or explanations that provide insight to you town and null reads. Your scum leans at least have something, but add in your comments about Bancraft and I am confused - why is it concerning he is voting for sheep instead of DrCJG? Based on your reads, there appears to be more justification for sheep than DrCJG because you admit DrCJG was mostly to fulfill participation obligations...

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#157 Post by teacher2 » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:57 pm

Dr/Phil/Worcej: You all are online now. Whats the latest time I can post a message that I can be confident will reach you?

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#158 Post by worcej » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:58 pm

@ DrCJG - totally not game related, but what engineering background are you? I am a Chemical Engineer myself :D

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#159 Post by worcej » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:58 pm

@teacher - I plan to redo my readlist in the next couple of hours, so if you get something in before the next 2 hours I will catch it and be able to reply.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#160 Post by BancroftS » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:01 pm

worcej wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:58 pm
@ DrCJG - totally not game related, but what engineering background are you? I am a Chemical Engineer myself :D
Are we all engineers? I’m aerospace!

About to catch a long haul flight, thanks for your responses, will hopefully be able to catch up on everything and respond before the end of day!!!

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