MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

[yavuzovic]

@DrCJG, I looked at D1 votings and my scumread on sheepsaysmeep is weaker now. I didn't see that he ended the day on the Bancroft wagon. Also reading without Peterbot is very hard. This is my first game without it.

I called xy sheep's scumfriend when I was scumreading sheep. I think sheep is mafia sided null now, but my xy reads are stronger. All is according to votings.

##vote xy4, for now.

[yavuzovic]

I will write something longer after I have my dinner.

[xy4]

I can totally get where you’re coming from with Sheep being scum and me potentially being his partner, but there’s a slight flaw: that’s your only evidence against me. Unless there was something else I missed with the voting, although I don’t think so.

If your Sheep scumreads are getting weaker, and your only read on me is my defence of Sheep, surely your reads on me get weaker too?

Just batting ideas about. I’m not exactly going to change my vote just because of this. I definitely have Bancroft as more scummy than you Yav.

My mind is beginning to wander about Sheep too, though. He could potentially be scum, but I don’t think it’s possible for him to be partnered with Bancroft, as he was on Bancroft’s wagon the whole of D1.

[teacher2]

I’m near 100% confident that there is one scum (and only one) in Bancroft-sheep. If anybody disagrees with this, let’s talk about that (though it’ll be late tonight for me)

While I have a ton of difficulty reading sheeps play style, a host of statistical things make it far more likely that sheep is town, which is also consistent with my gut reads of the players.

I am done voting for the day. One thing I will add is that the pool of potential doctors is now sufficiently narrow that I personally would appreciate the doctor posting at the end of NIGHT phase (559 Monday) that I was their save. I could def see scum Trying elsewhere to get you and then using the why didn’t you die WIFOM to come after me.

[yavuzovic]

No, I declared you scum by looking at votes. You were leading the damo wagon. Though given this is self-defence, and my only concrete evidence was sheep-xy4 interactions. Yeah, I was too impatient with voting this early and based on nothing. ##Unvote

[xy4]

I see. You’re welcome to vote me, of course, but I didn’t think you had very much solid evidence. Keep watching me though if you do have a scum lean for me nonetheless.

[xy4]

Alright fellas time to get serious. I will be permabanned very soon. I am appealing ofc but just to let you all know in case I disappear. I haven't done anything wrong and I hope I can convince the mods before it actually happens. It's probs a good idea that Jamie sees this too so ##CALL GM

[teacher2]

Yavuz please give me a detailed read of worcej.

[phil_a_s]

So the main thing we've learned since yesterday is that teacher2 is almost certainly town. That's kind of what I already thought. So, today, instead of doing a new readlist, where some people would have made like one or two posts since my last one, I'd instead enumerate all the possible scum pairs (15 in all, since 6*5/2=15) and reread with them in mind. I discovered that when I remove all conversations anyone had with me, teacher2, or damo, you end up with not too many conversations. Unsurprisingly, information about anyone/yavuz is hard to come by.

The ones I found plausible: worcej/xy4, Bancroft/xy4, worcej/Bancroft, yavuz/worcej, xy4, sheep

There are a couple others I would like to observe a bit further without disturbing them.

There is a problem with this list. It has ended up as something of a duplicate of my reads list from earlier. I could view this as validation, but it seems far more likely that I have simply failed to get a new perspective.

teacher2, sorry, I was busy. I would quite like to hear the reasoning behind there certainly being one scum among sheep and Bancroft. One of my more plausible scumteams doesn't have either of them on it, and two of the weaker yavuz ones don't either. I certainly haven't observed anything that would prevent them from being feuding townies.

[worcej]

Wall post incoming, so now that's out of the way.

Since N1 ended, there are a couple of 'branches of possibilities' that I want to go through and discuss. Some of these have already been said, but I wanted to put my thoughts into them because it all goes down a path of finality to me.

1. N1 Theory: Mafia submitted a kill vs. deliberately holding back: To me, I believe that a kill was submitted and a doctor blocked it because the not submitting would be a more advanced strategy beyond noob measures. More reasons:
   • So far, we have one claim of a doctor saving (which was teacher2 saying he was saved in post #370) and one claim of a RB (which was sheep in post #352). If there was more counter claims, this would be subject to more scrutiny and we'd know someone in that group is scum, but the lack of multiple claims leads me to believe these claims to be legit. With the above information being considered 'accepted', I would therefor also deduce that (like I've thought for some time) teacher2 is confirmed town and was attempted to be killed because he is reading someone accurately. The only way this theory breaks down for me is if teacher2 is mafia and this claiming strategy is an attempt to bait out the PR, but this would be unconfirmed either way and highly unlikely to result in success because if there is a doctor, they would know it is false. I think it's also way too risky this early to try if he was mafia, since you have a 50/50 shot of it blowing up in your face and revealing scum intention, so again going with teacher2 is confirmed VT or PR.
   • Again, submitting a non-kill would be an 'advanced' strategy. This would take someone that has some experience to lead the scum team down that path. Based on game-activity and information presented, that would have to come from the following:
     1. phil (a town lean for me)
     2. sheep (a scum lean for me)
     3. DrCJG (a null lean for me)
     4. yavu (a null lean for me)
     I put xy4, Bancrofts, and myself in the 'too noob to do list' and teacher2 off the list due to confirmed town based on above theories. Again, my leading suspicion at the start of this theory was the scum 'missed' their kill due to a doctor.
2. Why did the doctor save teacher on N1?: I think this ultimately happened because either teacher2 is the doctor or a noob is the doctor and followed his advice near the end of N1. That leaves to me, the following doctor options:
   1. teacher2
   2. Bancroft
   3. xy4
   4. myself
   In the case of noob doctor options, we got lucky that scum also appear noob and went after an obvious town. A teacher2 kill translates into he must be onto something with his reads and they are overly concerned. Looking back at those reads, they point to myself, xy4, Yavuz, or phil which were presented near the end of N1.
3. With teacher2 being confirmed town, why was the 'unconfirmed' RB put on sheep?: I call this unconfirmed because it seems odd that the RB would be put on sheep. What, if anything, would lead someone to read sheep as a PR? A majority of his actions/talking points have been short and near the end of the day hostile to us. He is also claiming the mechanics (recent posts) as being stupid. I don't know how to comment on this other than suggest it is either misdirection or frustration at something to do with the rules of mafia here. What I do know, is here are the possibilities:
   • Sheep is telling the truth, was RB'ed, meaning he is either VT or mafia. If the VT theory holds up, it is a shot in the dark by mafia. Normal strategy would be to stack the RB on the target to prevent self saving, which would be probable at this point. However, mafia didn't do this if it's true. Going super deep: advanced strategy (which he is capable of) would be to 'RB himself' by not using the RB as mafia, knowing no counter claim will come. This would be weird to do, but without knowing a cop or doctor exist it'd be like taking a shot in the dark using it. All of this is weird strategy to employ, so...
   • Sheep is lying about RB, which would out him to mafia (would that be a strategy? Probably the most unlikely theory possible), so I would just assume he is mafia. Again, this would be weird to assume unless he is mafia. A VT lying, or false claiming, RB only helps mafia. So I think the lying option is completely off the table.
   Without any understanding what is different between other Mafia games/sites, I will lean towards sheep misdirecting us as the only possible malicious option. But if he is misdirecting us, it could be because someone in the ideal 'wagoning' is the potential other mafia. Based on audience polls, I suspect it is either xy4, Yavuz, or phil (teacher's leans minus myself). This would go hand-in-hand with the reasoning to go with teacher2 as the NK on N1.

Based on the above, and this is somewhat a repeat of my stuff above, this draws me to these conclusions:

1. The PR is a doctor - we do not have a cop. The no kill submit is too advanced to pull off and would take a lot to convince a noob of no NK in this game.
2. teacher2 is known town. Mafia targeted him because of his current reads, meaning it's xy4, Yavuz, or phil are possibly scum.
3. teacher2 is either the PR or he convinced a noob to cover, liklihood it is Bancroft or xy4, since I am not doctor. I am personally thinking it's Bancroft over xy4 based on reads from D1 and actions so far.
4. If sheep is telling the truth on the RB, then mafia is potentially more noob then experienced. This keeps xy4 in the running with a more advanced scum lurking deep behind the scenes - again pointing at the 4 listed in point 1 as the other possible scum-mate of xy4.
5. Sheep may be misdirecting with the RB claim, if so I think he's covering xy4, yavuz, or phil in that order based on teacher's reads. This would only apply if sheep is scum

Ultimately, I believe the easiest way to confirm my theories is to confirm what xy4's role is and the only definitive way to do so is ##Vote xy4. A flip of scum on him narrows it down to sheep as the 2nd mafia player to me. I choose xy4 first because it also presents itself in the assumed theory of teacher2 getting close to sniffing one out near end of N1.

However, based on xy4's potential mod-ban post, this vote may be irrelevant unless someone comes in and fills it to prevent mod-killing.

[DrCJG]

Too tired to fully respond... but

@ Worcej - your readlist comes off extremely scummy... I haven’t seen anyone so blatantly PR hunt like that... why in the world are you posting analysis for discovering the doctor... I’ll reread in the morning to see if you actually make a good point...

@ Teacher - I thought I saw you on, Id love to get your initial response.

[phil_a_s]

I would therefor also deduce that (like I've thought for some time) teacher2 is confirmed town and was attempted to be killed because he is reading someone accurately. The only way this theory breaks down for me is if teacher2 is mafia and this claiming strategy is an attempt to bait out the PR, but this would be unconfirmed either way and highly unlikely to result in success because if there is a doctor, they would know it is false.

It seems odd to neglect the WIFOM aspect entirely. Not to mention there are other possible reasons for teacher2 to be targeted than his immediate reads.

That leaves to me, the following doctor options:

Why on earth would you do this. Why would you look for the only information the mafia don't already have?

Without any understanding what is different between other Mafia games/sites, I will lean towards sheep misdirecting us as the only possible malicious option. But if he is misdirecting us, it could be because someone in the ideal 'wagoning' is the potential other mafia. Based on audience polls, I suspect it is either xy4, Yavuz, or phil (teacher's leans minus myself).

This is a strange interpretation. Surely if sheep were misdirecting us, it would actually be more likely to happen if he didn't think he were diverting straight onto a scumbuddy?

Ultimately, I believe the easiest way to confirm my theories is to confirm what xy4's role is and the only definitive way to do so is ##Vote xy4. A flip of scum on him narrows it down to sheep as the 2nd mafia player to me. I choose xy4 first because it also presents itself in the assumed theory of teacher2 getting close to sniffing one out near end of N1.

So, a flip of scum indicts sheep. May I ask what it is that makes sheep the only plausible scumbuddy for xy4? What would a flip of town indicate, to you?


One thing I would note, with respect to the question of whether teacher2 surviving tonight would make him suspicious, is that if teacher2 is not counterclaimed by whoever it is that knows he's lying (if there was no NK attempt, this is the PR - it's still worth it to trade a PR identity for scum!teacher2), I think it makes him confirmed town. If anyone tries to counterclaim teacher2 tomorrow, well, why are they doing it so late?

[yavuzovic]

Yavuz please give me a detailed read of worcej.

I can't. I reread him since EoN. He didn't write much at first, then his activity got better. This isn't suspicious - I make a lot of weird timings because of timezones and real life businesses. I don't find anything scummy or towny about Worcej.
If he is town, he is trying to solve (not as good as teacher but it's obvious that better than me)
If he is scum, he shares some reads to remove suspicions on him.
He is still null to me.

[teacher2]

A Reactions post. Im not doing a reads post til we get another flip.

##CALL GM Are we notified of being saved if the doctor saves us?

What are the town motivations to this question given the then-current board state? I intentionally concealed the answer when proposing my doc hypo for this reason.

All is according to votings.

Youve focused on the Damo wagon heavily, but never mentioned Phil or Worcej at all. Id really like you to discuss those too. (postdraft – OK, so Phil?)

i was roleblocked

I am so happy it was you. You make so much sense if I -- a known not PR -- am the night kill target. If youre not going to try to kill a PR, you should at least try to block them so they cant save me/scan scum, and who better to RB than the guy who proposed the hypo cove? If the night kill target was ANYBODY else, I would expect the RB to go with the NK and for scum to claim RB. Since I know I am the NK, you make sense as the RB. The only way you are scum is to plant this exact reasoning.

I'll do a detailed analysis later in the day.

??????. Still waiting. More suspicious. FYI, and for everyone's next mafia game (I hope you enjoyed this one), you should consider this: VTs arent afraid of being a mislynch, and want to help solve the game. So the best way to react (whether VT or scum) to suspicion is to ignore it and try to convince others to lynch who you think needs lynching.

I would say scum would be looking: 1) to ensure one gets lynched (which makes me and teacher look bad

I like your list and reads, but I hate this point. As was discussed last game, no-lynch does not put off mylo or lylo absent either a doc save when it is only 50/50 we have a doc, and then 25% he can make a save, for a grant total of only 12% likely to benefit town. I town-read you really strongly for forcing a lynch through.

I would quite like to hear the reasoning behind there certainly being one scum among sheep and Bancroft.

Partial reaction test, partial honesty. You are now basically town for me (for this and for the later quote). Im just nearing 95+conviced Bancroft is scum. I cant post all of my Bancroft case openly (you think on your own about NKA/PR type things and come to your own conclusions). Also, its not 100% because there is one other option Im interested in. But let me talk about this a bit.

3 Wagons, with 2 selected and driven by a known town: odds of scum being somewhere 70%+.

Sheep, if not mafia, is for purposes of this discussion knowntown.

Thus, one of the three EoD wagons is filled by completely known town, making its target (bancroft) more likely scum, especially since it cant take off even with the drama of the PR theory.

Compare XY's martyr vote (which crucially came before Phil's vote switch, though Phil had signalled). Its unlikely scum!XY - unless paired with scum!bancroft - makes this vote. More importantly (and easier to overlook) there is very little chance scum!XY, as a leading wagon near end of day when worcej suggested he might switch, and XY was his next best scumread, openly admits to having NO reasoning for a push on phil (posts 200 then 203 on page 11, XY's 209 is in the same vein).

Bancroft did a number of (mildly) scummy things. Add it the PR theory drama and the last crap post, Bancroft-Worcej looks pretty good. Again, there are more thoughts, just …..reasons.

@ Teacher - I thought I saw you on, Id love to get your initial response.

Yup. Mostly a fluff post repeating what we already know, with some terrible reasoning (the one thing we know Im not is a doctor. The doctor would not try to save Damo by saying he is a doctor) and again demonstrating an unwillingness to go to Bancroft.

if teacher2 is not counterclaimed by whoever it is that knows he's lying (if there was no NK attempt, this is the PR - it's still worth it to trade a PR identity for scum!teacher2), I think it makes him confirmed town. If anyone tries to counterclaim teacher2 tomorrow, well, why are they doing it so late?

@Board – I had forgotten this, but it is right. IT is worth it to lose a PR to catch a scum D2 (why I wanted the cop to hardclaim with a guilty). Also, Phil=town.

Town (Me, Phil, Sheep)
Townlean (XY)
Null (Dr, Yavuz)
Scumlean (Worcej)
Scum (Bancroft)

[phil_a_s]

I'll do a detailed analysis later in the day.

??????. Still waiting. More suspicious. FYI, and for everyone's next mafia game (I hope you enjoyed this one), you should consider this: VTs arent afraid of being a mislynch, and want to help solve the game. So the best way to react (whether VT or scum) to suspicion is to ignore it and try to convince others to lynch who you think needs lynching.

I have also gotten quite angry with Bancroft's consistent pattern of inactivity, lack of engagement, followed by defenses that focus on the lack of material (which is cause by said lack of engagement and inactivity) as the main point.

Bancroft did a number of (mildly) scummy things. Add it the PR theory drama and the last crap post, Bancroft-Worcej looks pretty good. Again, there are more thoughts, just …..reasons.

Looking at worcej's latest post through this lens, it really does try to distract from Bancroft pretty hard. Quite interesting.

Worcej and Bancroft both seem important to put pressure on today. Bancroft already has pressure, so ##VOTE worcej it is.

worcej, why were you hunting for doc? Why were you doing so publicly? Why would an xy4 scumflip make sheep his scumbuddy?

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 2.1

BancroftS (3) - Sheepsaysmeep, Teacher2, xy4
Worcej (2) - DrCJG, Phil_a_s
xy4 (1) Worcej

Unvoted (1) - Yavuzovic

Currently BancroftS is set to be lynched.

Phase ends TOMORROW at 11pm BST

[yavuzovic]

I'm still trying to decide who to vote. People say (People means phil) Worcej is hunting in public. I didn't see that but they may be right. Anyway I'll follow teacher:
##vote BancroftS I believe teacher is town, his style is quite similar with his last game.

[BancroftS]

I have also gotten quite angry with Bancroft's consistent pattern of inactivity, lack of engagement, followed by defenses that focus on the lack of material (which is cause by said lack of engagement and inactivity) as the main point.

I apologise to everyone for my inconsistency in being available - I have things IRL that are taking up a lot of unplanned time. I’m not going to defend myself against this wagon - I just want you all to think logically for a second. Would I, if I was mafia, sir here silent? Would I actually just not defend myself against these claims? No. I’m probably going to get Lynched at the end of today, for no reason - and I will look forward to seeing these reaction posts of you all saying “oh wait he was town?!”.

I think whoever is this Mafia team here is doing a lot of posting, to try and “help the town”. My feelings on sheep are there, still, but people are correct when they say it’s down to posting style (but then again what else can we judge on?).

I’m still, using my gut instinct, ##VOTEsheep. I really don’t have good feelings about anyone. No one has convinced me they’re town, with the exception of xy4.

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 2.2

BancroftS (4) - Sheepsaysmeep, Teacher2, xy4, Yavuzovic
Worcej (2) - DrCJG, Phil_a_s
xy4 (1) - Worcej
Sheepsaysmeep (1) - BancroftS

Unvoted (1) - Yavuzovic

Currently BancroftS is set to be lynched.

Phase ends TOMORROW at 11pm BST

Note: The server downtime went quite quickly but since I have already announced the phase extension I am not going to change it back as this would be unfair to players who may not be around today.

[phil_a_s]

So, Bancroft, it sounds like you don't believe sheep's RB claim. Do you think mafia chose not to roleblock, and why?
You say nobody has convinced you they are town, is this because you don't believe teacher2's claim or because it doesn't count as convincing when you claim and there is confirmation by lack of counterclaim (which, by the way, should be complete now, since I'm pretty sure everyone has been active since then)?