MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

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teacher2
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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#321 Post by teacher2 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:15 pm

So, here is the EoN VCA/Wagon analysis post.

In a functionally 8 player game with two players off-line at EoD, you can be pretty confident that at least one scum is on a 5-vote VT wagon. Almost the only possible exception to this rule would be if Sheep-Yavuz are the scum team. Because of that exception, and because Sheep was primarily on Damo (knowntown) most of the day, I will include him in my analysis below. The only players excluded are Yavuz (obvious), Bancroft (off-wagon and offline), and me (you make your own calls, the below assumes town!me).

Im going to spoil the analysis because its long and we know Sheep doesn’t read walls. Here is the bottom line. My PoE pool for tomorrow – PENDING NKA – is Sheep, Worcej, Phil.


So lets look at the wagon:
Sheep – On, and pushing, Damo most of the day, even after the switch to Bancroft. This is the first thing that tweaked me about Sheep, potentially for Burden of Proficiency reasons – I thought he might have viewed the hypo-doc as a PR slip too, especially combined with the Spartacus crumb. But I also dislike the seeming contradictions I listed in my reactions post, about readslists and about hypo. Sheep is critical of walls and analysis (though that is meta elsewhere), and Sheep’s continuing posture on hypo is making me suspect him; I have detailed why a hypo inno result is the best cover and how to use it because we are in a game with obvious newbs; he brought up the strategy in a known newb game but without explaining (potentially hoping for bad cover and PR identification?). Finally, the overnight conduct of shade throwing at his previous townleans seems scum-motivated of laying grounds for a mislynch. From an associational standpoint, I don’t think Sheep can be paired with Bancroft if both are offline end of day when Bancroft is a wagon. I could see sheep with Yavuz, Worcej, or possibly XY. Either of the first two are perfectly consistent with sheep being offline; XY is less likely but consistent with how sheep had played earlier in the day and with his continued null of xy in the later reads.

Worcej – claimed newb who found his way to a pretty good MS article, and also followed last webdip game, so he gets it. TBH, even with this explanation, I like his staying on Damo after my PR theory the least, since I think newbs don’t trust their reads THAT much and would be very scared of lynching a PR (I think Phil’s response may well have been right, but that’s more calculating than I expect for a newb). Other than that, though, I liked his readslists and contributions – including the Phil-Worcej discussion of Worcej’s readlist. As for associational analysis, I could see Worcej with any of the nulls in his readslist in post 81, but find DrCJG the most interesting because I do not understand Dr’s switch to XY4 (potentially motivated to stay away from partner, who had joined on Damo?) and jump back to Damo instead of to Bancroft EoD (a pending question). (Just FYI brother, things reek (smell) of scum, they don’t wreak (make) of scum).

XY4 – I didn’t like the start to the game here, but I liked how it changed after. I especially liked the reversion to Damo rather than Bancroft even with the martyr post, when coupled with the earlier crusade against DrCJG – you were not trying to pick low hanging fruit, that’s for sure. The crusade (that DrCJG seemed to be joining wagons at their inflection points) seemed sound. I like you the most of anybody else on the wagon, but if you are scum, I could see you with Bancroft, Yavuz, or Sheep.

Phil – hardest for me to comment on because you have been incredibly active and pretty sound with your theory (like the discussion of Information instead of analysis with Bancroft). Yet your place on this wagon (and the refusal to get off it) is potentially the scummiest. You follow a scumread (xy) quickly onto an old wagon (damo) and put it in the lead. I also disagree with the reaction to my (wrong) doctor hypo – this could be just a game theory difference, but I will be honest and say I scum you for it. Moreover, I find your interactions with Bancroft the most troubling – you repeatedly cast doubt on him (for being online and not posting; for information instead of analysis) but never follow the logic of your own words. I really really do like you, but am now more fearful of the powerwolf being an active misdirector. If you are scum, I could see you with Sheep, Bancroft, or DrCjC

DrCJG – Joined in an obvious attempt to keep the teams from tying. That in addition to my earlier reads and other conduct (the unnecessary comment regarding Phil and Worcej) makes you almost a townclear for me, though not known town for others. Thanks for your EoD answer; can you explain your shift to Xy4 more? Im too busy IRL to do the analysis of why some might suspect you, but if you are scum, I could see you paired with Worcej, Yavuz, or Phil (essentially, given your place on the wagon, I am treating you as off-wagon).

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#322 Post by teacher2 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:29 pm

Eh, I got tired and rushed at the end of that because I do have to finish packing. I dont think DrCJG is townclear after all. If I live, I will reanalyze him. As I wrote that, I forgot that the had been on Damo (knowntown) to go to XY (a pretty strong townread). Towns can indeed misread all the time, and it is statistically probable that any two votes will be town, but I am no longer fully comfortable and wanted to be honest.

(FWIW, the EoD question was becuase I found the jump to Damo rather than Bancroft on tied wagons surprising when you had at least acknowledged the PR case).

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#323 Post by phil_a_s » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:31 pm

Actually, the serious day one wagons in my mind are damo, xy, and Bancroft, and what I'm curious about is if you think one of them (well, not damo) is scum, based on the way the wagons developed. The timeline doesn't make too much sense to me, and I'm kind of looking for help with that. It all feels a bit sluggish, which makes me fear mafia weren't being active. Maybe it's just that I've always played with 4+ scum? I dunno.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#324 Post by teacher2 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:36 pm

Responding to that question, my answer is:

Statistically -- yes, there is a 59% (neutral) or 64% (town non-target) chance that one of them is scum.

Since Im town, the statistical case 64% gets even stronger, because I believe I (and not scum) was the genesis for two of the wagons. So I view it as a greater than 70% scum is there.

But I dont know which one of XY or Bancroft it is. I dont think its both. I like Bancroft more for it in isolation. But I have a harder time partnering him. Hence why Id rather lynch on the wagon than a repeat target.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#325 Post by phil_a_s » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:50 pm

teacher2 wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:15 pm
Phil – hardest for me to comment on because you have been incredibly active and pretty sound with your theory (like the discussion of Information instead of analysis with Bancroft). Yet your place on this wagon (and the refusal to get off it) is potentially the scummiest. You follow a scumread (xy) quickly onto an old wagon (damo) and put it in the lead. I also disagree with the reaction to my (wrong) doctor hypo – this could be just a game theory difference, but I will be honest and say I scum you for it. Moreover, I find your interactions with Bancroft the most troubling – you repeatedly cast doubt on him (for being online and not posting; for information instead of analysis) but never follow the logic of your own words. I really really do like you, but am now more fearful of the powerwolf being an active misdirector. If you are scum, I could see you with Sheep, Bancroft, or DrCjC
The main reason I was fine moving away from xy4 is that his reaction to being rung up didn't seem too scummy to me, and my main reason for leaving the damo wagon, the lack of a serious counter-wagon, had gone away. At the time, I also saw that xy4 was not online anymore, but that damo was. I wanted to put some pressure on damo, check what reaction I got. In retrospect, I misinterpreted the reaction, and got damo killed.
I found Bancroft's explanation for why he was reading but not replying satisfactory. As for the information vs analysis thing, well, I wasn't going to scumread someone over a single style thing. I do now think I should have paid more attention to him at the time.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#326 Post by phil_a_s » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:53 pm

teacher2 wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:36 pm
But I dont know which one of XY or Bancroft it is. I dont think its both. I like Bancroft more for it in isolation. But I have a harder time partnering him. Hence why Id rather lynch on the wagon than a repeat target.
Agreed on that one. If we were to pick one person to bring up again, I'd go with Bancroft, because we haven't seen him acting under pressure, so we'd be duplicating less information, but even so, looking elsewhere seems better for tomorrow, and even discounting myself, we have enough targets.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#327 Post by DrCJG » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:56 pm

teacher2 wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:15 pm
can you explain your shift to Xy4 more?
@ teacher - I am not sure when or why you decided XY is a pretty strong townread.

But, when I moved to Xy4 he was one of my three top scum reads. He had posted what seemed like contradictions about wanting to do hypocop without actually posting his own opinion, he had also thrown shade at "certain people" without actually calling them out such that he came off as trying to blend in and divert attention.

I also didn't like his following Damo onto my wagon without much a reason considering it didn't sound like he had actually reviewed the previous game but was just taking a different result from your analysis:
xy4 wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:10 pm
DrCJG - You are talking lots about how other people are acting, and as Teacher said, this is different to how you acted as Mafia in a different game. It may seem as though I’m jumping to conclusions but I think this change in behaviour might be intentional.

##VOTE DrCJG


I thought you had a good point about the lack of defense of Damo, so while he was still my top scum read I moved to Xy4 to put some pressure on him and to try and create a race between Xy4 and Bancroft.

Xy4 gave what I felt were some pretty weak reasons for why he continued to think i was scum including that I was colluding with Phil (which admittedly you now seem to think is possible), but I also thought they seemed genuine and new playerish... which is why I was prepared to move off him when we arrived at EoD.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#328 Post by sheepsaysmeep » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:56 pm

im legitimately super not motivated for this game

i have other things to be doing including a paint reveal and designing mcu mash it's not helping that everyone here is so scummy and scumreading me for the shittiest reasons

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#329 Post by sheepsaysmeep » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:57 pm

"i dont buy that you forgot when eod was so you must be scum"

also ive responded like five billion times to "he has a townread he must be scum" and "he suggested the hypo cop strategy he must be scum trying to look like town by suggesting it" or "he suggested the hypo cop strategy hoping that it would somehow benefit scum"

like none of my defenses have been acknowledged and people keep trying to push those somehow

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#330 Post by phil_a_s » Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:14 pm

sheepsaysmeep wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:57 pm
like none of my defenses have been acknowledged and people keep trying to push those somehow
Try acknowledging criticism and accusations directly, rather than wandering in, complaining about being scumread by "people" (whose arguments you paraphrase, cherrypick for the weakest ones, and then dismiss, referring to some time you did pretty much the same thing earlier. Ideally, proceed to scumread whoever it was "people" actually meant this time. Or hey, make the scumread vague as hell too.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#331 Post by xy4 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:53 pm

Sheep, I’ve acknowledged your explanations. If you’d been reading my readlists, you’d notice I’ve had you at Town. I’ve defended you for quite a while now, but tbh, you’re beginning to act like a straight up dick.

You also, as it would seem, have better things to do than play this game.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#332 Post by yavuzovic » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:33 pm

xy4 wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:13 am
In response to what Yav was saying about Sheep:

I’d agree with your points, he does seem to be scummy from what you are saying. I’d like to reiterate a point or two I made on him in my last readlist on Sheep. I think he is being very assertive and informal, like he has nothing to lose, so to speak.
Come on, we all have something to lose. Yes, I agree about sheep's style is towny, but I don't agree about that this makes him town this much.

Also xy cleared smeep here and here:
xy4 wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:38 pm


TOWN LEAN:

Sheep: I've moved him out of Town because of the current discussion going on with him, but I am still pretty sure he's Town. You are not as assertive or vitriolic as Sheep is currently if you've got something to lose, so to speak.
He saved sheepsaysmeep when I accused him. And he puts him on the top.of the townlist. I bet xy is sheep's mafia friend if sheep is a mafia.

I haven't written much thing so I don't think mafia will nightkill me. I don't think I'll be around at EoN. I don't think I will be killed but if I die, consider what I said.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#333 Post by xy4 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:44 pm

Okay point taken Yav. I have been defending Sheep on multiple counts, but if you view the post right above yours, you’ll see I’m beginning to not be so friendly towards him. There’s more to come if Sheep doesn’t start being a bit nicer to everyone, and fixes some of his recent reasoning.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#334 Post by xy4 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:46 pm

Also I don’t order people within each subsection in my readlists. I wasn’t meaning that the person furthest up was who I was more inclined to believe as Town.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#335 Post by xy4 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:48 pm

I too won’t be around at EoN because of timezone differences.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#336 Post by Jamiet99uk » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:09 pm

GM NOTE

SENDING PRIVATE MESSAGES ABOUT THIS GAME TO OTHER PLAYERS IS NOT ALLOWED AND MAY LEAD TO IMMEDIATE MODKILL.

IF YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND THIS RULE PLEASE CONTACT ME.
2

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#337 Post by Jamiet99uk » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:28 pm

GM NOTE

Deputy GM Dargorygel is helping me process EoD.

If you get a PM from him during EoD, it has full authority.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#338 Post by teacher2 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:32 pm

Just landed. Darn. Could have posted.

Dr- XY only became a townread today in real life time - as I analyzed the wagon. I agree with you that he seemed scummy yesterday at least until EoD rush. But I apply current reads retrospectively when scumhunting, since scum already has the info (but can defend by saying looked bad at the time).

Here's hoping I live.

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#339 Post by worcej » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:35 pm

@teacher - to expand on your concern on me not moving was I was adhering to bullet point #2 on that article. That is why I also posted concerns about your PR comment/anti-PR wagon in my last list. But I admit I was wrong, so my attempts at strategy failed me.

A rough, N1, readlist is as follows:

TOWN
  • phil_a_s – Not much changing on me read of you. You're continuing to pressure (notably sheep right now) and I think your reads are still thought out.
  • teacher2 - I originally added some 'scum tendency' to you for proposing the anti-damo wagon, but clearly now that Damo was VT that eliminates that part. Sidenote: 'I speak American good.' ;)
NULL
  • DrCJG – I am really starting to be concerned on the sheep support for you, but this is outweighed a little by the confidence of teacher2. He played with you last round and if he has a town read on you still, I'll take that with merit - you are defending yourself a lot to the questions, but I would expect that, but that can be a little scummy. I am just not sold either way so far.
  • BancroftS – I don't really have much of a change in stance on you. Though a lot of people are viewing you as scum-read, I am luke-warm. No one is really discussing you right now, so lets see how D2 goes.
  • Yavu - not much to go off of. Your analysis on sheep though adds some extra information to my thought process. I do agree if we were to find out sheep is mafia, it would narrow down who the 2nd one easily.
SCUM
  • Sheep - Yavu's comment that you're a good player adds some fuel to the fire. I started with you as a town lean, but in the past real-life 24 hours, you have gotten a little more frantic. With the extra info on past performance and the reminder that you started the Damo wagon (known VT), I am beginning to feel this is all a planned/staged reaction.
  • xy4 – Is the banter between you and sheep intentional to cause us to separate the two of you? Others seem to have improved on you based on the reactions to scum wagoning, but I think I will keep my initial scum read until end of N1.
Hopefully that helps if I get NK'ed...

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Re: MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

#340 Post by teacher2 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:41 pm

@worcej, re your comments on DrCJG. Don’t let mine change yours. Fist I don’t think I’m that good at all before several flips (d3 generally). Second, as a general theory point, use other people’s reads to adjust the confidence level you have in your own, but not really steer yours. Will talk more about this if you want after the game since it’s mostly a theory point.

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