MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

[Jamiet99uk]

GM NOTE

Unfortunately XY4 has been banned from webDip. This means he can no longer participate in Mafia on this forum.

I am seeking a replacement. If a replacement cannot be found, he will be modkilled.

[teacher2]

##callGM: Is there a set time by which XY's slot will expire? Will it be flipped pre-turn? at-phase end? At EoN? etc.

Sorry for the hassle.

[teacher2]

[Wait teacher, I want to hear from xy before EoD.

No worries. Im sitting up in my high and comfy chair assuming we've nicked the scum team. If you have doubts, consider the statistical case, then do an ISO of W assuming he is partnered with Bancroft. I could be wrong, but Im not moving until theres a flip or a claim. Thats why I put my end in, but it takes 5 to end it, so I think theres no chance of a hammer.

I'll be honest, I dont like how little sheep has been contributing vs. how many times Ive seen them on, but thats my paranoia. I will the felt brow of my hat if Im wrong here.

[teacher2]

@Worcej: About 12 hours ago, I requested Bancroft claim or not by 11am BST/6am New York time. Your hesitancy about voting them was because you thought they were doctor. I assume if they dont claim you will vote?

[worcej]

@teacher2 - If the wagon is all on Bancroft and no one else believes he is potentially doctor, then yes I guess. Like I said in my posts so far, I believe he is potentially the doctor while (the formerly) xy4 was scum between the two of them.

@phil - not ignoring, just really thinking on how to respond to you since you're knit picking every last thing I say

[yavuzovic]

##Call Gm,
xy has posted this turn, and he doesn't have to poat at night. Could you modkill him at EoD3?

[teacher2]

##Call Gm,
xy has posted this turn, and he doesn't have to poat at night. Could you modkill him at EoD3?

And what are the town motivations for this post too? The doctor bought us an extra day. I was going to talk tonight about what that meant, but I will do it now:

If town makes it to 4:2 or 3:1, it should not lynch. Going from mylo (mislynch and lose) to lylo (lynch or lose) only benefits town. It makes the pure odds of lynching scum higher, and it allows for better associational analysis.

Your proposal is bizarre - if Bancroft is not scum - it essentially asks that Day 3 be lylo instead of mylo, but without providing information from XY's flip until it would be too late to use it: EoD2 5-2 (town!bancroft), EoN2 4-2 (bye by yall), EoD3 (with XY death only) 3-2, EoN3 (2-2 mafia win). So town has to lynch D3 but without any information or posts from one member.

[teacher2]

Worcej on Bancroft…….

[*]BancroftS - You haven't posted much content, but also there is plenty of time to fix that. I’ll be on the lookout for your reads.

BancroftS – I think you’re addressing any concerns people have about your lurking, so I am okay with it. I think my overall read, based on your posts, is you’re feeling sheep is the scum, which isn’t where my read is right now for sheep but I can understand the reasoning. I haven’t gathered much else from you due to limited stints of posts and in the you vs. xy4 wagoning, I see xy4 as more scum than you.

BancroftS – I don't really have much of a change in stance on you. Though a lot of people are viewing you as scum-read, I am luke-warm. No one is really discussing you right now, so lets see how D2 goes.

@Worcej: People can definitely have different reads. But can you react to the reasons I gave for my XY town lean, and why they dont move you? They are linked below.

XY4 – I didn’t like the start to the game here, but I liked how it changed after. I especially liked the reversion to Damo rather than Bancroft even with the martyr post, when coupled with the earlier crusade against DrCJG – you were not trying to pick low hanging fruit, that’s for sure. The crusade (that DrCJG seemed to be joining wagons at their inflection points) seemed sound. I like you the most of anybody else on the wagon, but if you are scum, I could see you with Bancroft, Yavuz, or Sheep.

Compare XY's martyr vote (which crucially came before Phil's vote switch, though Phil had signalled). Its unlikely scum!XY - unless paired with scum!bancroft - makes this vote. More importantly (and easier to overlook) there is very little chance scum!XY, as a leading wagon near end of day when worcej suggested he might switch, and XY was his next best scumread, openly admits to having NO reasoning for a push on phil (posts 200 then 203 on page 11, XY's 209 is in the same vein).

[teacher2]

@Yavuz:

I really want to like you. My meta read of you combined with what I know of your personality makes your play comfortably within your town range. But both of your GM questions have been things that benefit scum.

If, when the doc hypo was going forward, town wouldnt care whether the save target was notified. Scum would need to know in order to decide whether to counterclaim or lose that option. Thats why I find the question scum motivated. As for the second sentence, I meant that when I proposed a doc hypo, I purposefully didnt say whether the target was notified so that scum might need to ask.

Thats part of why I asked for a detailed read of Worcej - I see Worcej as the scummiest spot on the wagon. I get why Phil didnt move. I dont get why Worcej didnt. By the way, I do buy Worcej's case that the attempted murder was because of my suspects. But my suspects were really Bancroft and Worcej, and if you read my night posts closely you see that (I say one scum had to be a target, and that I townread XY).

Im basically looking for ways that I can clear you away from your potential partners, and youve already interacted with sheep. If there is someway you could post more, that would help me. Perhaps you could explain why you didnt want XY killed until EoD3?

[yavuzovic]

You know I resigned at last game. When xy was banned, I thought keeping town!xy is beneficial for the town, and keeping scum!xy alive doesn't harm us - because he can do nothing.
I don't understand why you think my Gm questions are scummy. If I were a mafia, I could ask this on MafiaQT or I could as it via PM.

[phil_a_s]

Uh, if xy4 is banned, then keeping town!xy4 around is still bad for us, and killing scum!xy4 is extremely good for us.

Basically, if xy4 is banned and inevitably going to be modkilled, the only further information we can get from xy4 (whether scum or town) is the flip. We want that information as soon as possible, because it informs our strategy, and it tells us more about who the mafia could be.

I must admit, I have no clue why you would advocate for us to have *less* information during the D3 lynch.

[Jamiet99uk]

GM NOTE

It is my firm intention to arrange a substitute if at all possible. Modkill is the last resort.

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 2.5

BancroftS (4) - Sheepsaysmeep, Teacher2(END), xy4, Yavuzovic
Worcej (2) - DrCJG, Phil_a_s
phil_as_s (1) - Worcej
Teacher2 (1) - BancroftS

Currently BancroftS is set to be lynched.

You have 8 hours and 54 minutes remaining in Day 2.

[yavuzovic]

So xy's vote is still valid.

Uh, if xy4 is banned, then keeping town!xy4 around is still bad for us, and killing scum!xy4 is extremely good for us.

Why? Keeping town!xy4 is good for us, good because we can find a replacement. Modkilling town!xy4 is only good for mafia, they will get one extra kill.

[Jamiet99uk]

GM NOTE

If anyone is spectating this and wishes to enter the game as a substitute, please let me know.

[worcej]

@teacher2 - I can say why they didn't move me with the following:

1. Post #211 is a response to me questioning his leads, where he seemed to backpeddle on listing phil as potential scum once he was questioned. I originally was calling him out in my early lists as having no good facts for scum reads, and this continued to assist in that opinion.
2. I don't think his move to Damo was a sign of 'not picking low hanging fruit' - his first read/reaction to Damo or bancroft was post #218 FYI. He did provide a reason, one that I kinda was meh on, but I was also pretty actively wagoning damo and there was a lot of scum reads on him, so it was the most likely other option than himself at the time. I think it was only a martyr play - he had 3 votes on him and with his vote there put 2 on Damo, granted phil moved soon and then it was less martyr. The Damo desperation voting to try to tie it lead to the weird D1 end and his lynching, not any good evidence xy4 put in front of us.
3. D2 posting from xy4 was a lot of non-substance imo. The only standout was the conversation with phil, but ultimately it revealed he didn't like doc hypo, Bancroft needs to talk more, then voted Bancroft and stated we'd get a read list (but we didn't due to ban). There isn't much to read for this day honestly...

[DrCJG]

On mobile today guys... been following along and plan to be around at EoD bit of you have an in-depth question for me, try and get it to me early.

I am pretty happy with the wagons, though I think an end vote is unnecessary.

[teacher2]

The end was to try to pressure Bancroft to get on and do something. I didn’t think the hammer would actually fall.

Worcej, it’s been 24 hours since I requested a claim. How does that change your views on Bancroft?

I too am mobile (flying home) but will make a point of being online near deadline.

[teacher2]

where he seemed to backpeddle on listing phil as potential scum once he was questioned.

don't think his move to Damo was a sign of 'not picking low hanging fruit'

This may just be playstyle or different instincts, but I don’t think a targeted scum says he has no reasons for a read. It’s too risky. Also, fwiw it was his sustained push on Dr that I viewed as towny/not low hanging fruit, not Damo. Dr was an unlikely lynch given others reads, so Pushing him made xy stick out a bit for no clear gain.

[worcej]

@teacher2 - Has Bancroft been lurking? I haven't seen him online when I am so I cannot comment on that. If he's lurking, then it makes me concerned.