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TrPrado wrote: ↑

Thu May 31, 2018 6:18 pm

Okay so we're going to really need to pick up the pace on this game quite a bit. We're losing pretty bad.

I'm pretty confident that snowy is town, and I'm also pretty sure that DrCJG is town, so two of the other three are very probably scum. If I were to call it now I'd say rdrivera and Vash are the scumteam.

Prado, If you are really town we already lost, so I would say you and DrCJG are probably the last scum. But I would not be surprised if it's Snowy and Ezio.

I would

personal opinion that it's drcjg and ezio

NIGHT HAS ENDED. PLEASE HOLD

A Mafia Haiku, Round Two:

A prior ally turned traitor
Spite clouded his mind
Killed by a knife in the back


rdrivera2005 has DIED. He was Raoul Silva a VANILLA TOWN.


DAY 9 HAS BEGUN. YOU MAY NOW POST.

Rip. ##vote drcjg.
Last, greatest hope.

Vash, have you read anything about this game yet?

I looked at the vote posts. Which is enough for me to suspect Dr. CJG but not much more than that.

Care to explain what about the vote posts makes you suspect him?

K I'm never lurking (to this extent) again I still think it's an excellent strategy to avoid being mislynched, but holy shit this sucks. Better to die in the early game than live to see myself become part of this shitty endgame.

Vash, you gotta post something more. Tell us when you will actually be online before the end of the phase so we (I) can chat with you.

Also, given the state of this game, it's probably a good idea for us as a forum to agree to lynch players who don't post more. D1 should almost certainly be spent on lurkers, and possibly later days as well. This endgame is going to give absolutely no new information to any of our players and as a result is going to be solely based on our earlier days and the previous flips.

I have actually done some analysis that gives us a relatively good chance to win this game, but I want a little bit of more information before I bet the game on it. I'm not going to share it until I hear from Vash, or until we're getting reasonably close to EoD.

rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑

Wed May 30, 2018 10:35 pm

DrCJG wrote: ↑

Wed May 30, 2018 10:15 pm

RIP Fox
Welcome Vash

Yall can claim my defending Fox was scummy, but I don't know how to get yall to engage with my analysis...

I would appreciate it if everyone would let me know where they disagree with me on the following:

IF snowy is town then it is extremely unlikely that the the 2 remaining scum were on Thamrick D7.... meaning that Snowy is scum or one of Vash/(Yav) and I is scum. (technically I guess this is an inclusive or as snowy and Yav could be scum)

That is why I desperately wanted to get a vote going on one of them...

I don't remember if I answered before, but I disagree, I think Thamrick was an obvious lynch and both scum could be voting him. Pretty sure at least one bussed him as they don't need the Hooker anymore on D7.

Although I disagree with him, I appreciate Rdr responding and it does make me less confident knowing that there is a believable scenario where 2 scum were on Thamrick AND snowy is town. I still think that at the time Thamrick looked like a very good lynch, so if there were 2 scum on Thamrick it seems like it would have been very easy for one of them to join the snowy counter wagon.

I'd really appreciate if everyone else would offer their opinion of D7 voting. Especially since two of you know whether there were two scum on Thamrick...

##vote drcjg

With us in lylo, I'd appreciate some arguments for the votes cast on me... I have to convince you I am town or we lose, and when you vote without an argument that becomes much harder.

@ Ezio - I appreciate that you indicated you are holding on to your analysis until closer to EoD, but we can't afford a mislynch so I encourage you to reveal your analysis so that we can agree on a target to lynch.

@ Snowy - its votes like that, which have angered us all game. If you are town, as I am trying to come to terms with, I need you 1) to vote elsewhere; and 2) to explain your reads/analysis/anything

@ TrP - I understand family stuff... I have been to busy on other things... but its crunch time, what are you thinking?

@ Vash - I have felt Yav/you are scum since D1, but currently I believe only you or Snowy is scum... convince me it is snowy and tell me who else you think is scum.

The current narrative I am working with is the scum team is/was Bo/Chaqa, Darg, Tham, Ezio, and Vash/Yav.

• D1: Fairly worthless... Yav, Ezio, and Chaqa all sit on 1 wagons of town (Yav on a no-lynch), while Thamrick and Darg are on leading town wagons.
  
  D2: With an Ezio lynch threat forming, Yav moves off Ezio... to Ike for poor reasons and then to Snowy for no reason other than it looks like the wagon that will be lynched.... limited scum movement due to t v. t lynch (Snowy v. Peter) so when new wagon forms on another town (Stressed) Thamrick is the only scum to jump on.
  
  D3: The EoD voting wasn't a save of Snowy but scum trying to make sure there wasn't a tie.
  
  D4: Darg and Bo bus Ezio. Yav sits on Snowy until at the last second without any reason (and unable to give one later) switches to join Tham with votes on Balki to save Ezio. Darg and Bo were both around at EoD and were careful to make sure Ezio can still change his vote from bussing Tham to save himself... it's an impressive play but one that I think could have been coordinated the night before.
  
  D5: bo and darg are outed, Ezio becomes active enough to distance himself from Bo and darg and begins bussing thamrick.
  
  D6: is largely unhelpful as we lynch Darg
  
  D7: Ezio continues his bus on Tham, and sets up Fox to be next.
  
  N7: Ezio seems to think Rdr is town and states that if he is indeed scum we have already lost... he says we need to decide between Prado, DrCJG, and yav after Fox... on D8 he continues his defense of Rdr but is then ok with Fox v Rdr wagons (and Rdr gets NK'd and flips town). Of note, Jamie's NK could have been decided upon because Jamiet appeared to be questioning a relationship between Thamrick and Yav. Something I will try and go back and look at more.

Nothing jumps out as unbelievable to me about that being the scum team. Therefore, ##vote Ezio.

Hopefully I will have time to look back through with other combinations, but I encourage everyone to list who they think the final two scum are and to walk back through the game with the assumption of the full scum team.

Oh I'll be online here and now. I sort of got roped into this because the alternative was a modkill.

placeholder for ##votedrcjg

which to be fair is because of the thamrick vote so like, would love to hear an actual case

honestly I've got no idea

maybe it's trprado
when have you ever seen that guy shut up in his life?

If it wasn't rdrivera then I don't fucking know. It looks like DrCJG is getting lynched but I don't know why and I fear there's a decent chance that'll end the game. I'm missing something here.

I'm inclined to agree that at least one scum would've been on snowy D7, which means it seems likely we've got at least 50% shot there

snowy: You've seemed pretty confident on DrCJG for a while now but I don't know if I've ever seen you explain why. What strikes you as scummy about him, particularly?