MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

[Balki Bartokomous]

Now Balki and Snowy are pushing together on DrCJG. Regardless of his alignment, I could see the scum team taking a sac fly at this point to build some town cred for a couple people.

[][]vote Balki

What does this last part mean with the "sac fly" comment? Are you saying you think that Scum Balki and Scum Snowy "could be" working together to lynch Scum Telamor?

Okay, cool. So why don't you vote Telamor with me, and then don't give me any credit for it when he flips scum.

[RagingIke297]

Now Balki and Snowy are pushing together on DrCJG. Regardless of his alignment, I could see the scum team taking a sac fly at this point to build some town cred for a couple people.

[][]vote Balki

What does this last part mean with the "sac fly" comment? Are you saying you think that Scum Balki and Scum Snowy "could be" working together to lynch Scum Telamor?

Okay, cool. So why don't you vote Telamor with me, and then don't give me any credit for it when he flips scum.

Telamor is dead, try again.

What I meant by that is regardless of who is scum they can have a couple people bus one member hard for some town cred because of the lead they have

[TrPrado]

DrCJG: Where does Ike fall on your list?

[Balki Bartokomous]

@RagingIke,

I see two pillars to your Balki case:

FIRST PILLAR: "I guess Balki could be the hooker and they RB/NK'ed the same person N1 to give him a soft clear."

Why does that make me Hooker? All you're really saying here is that my N1 RB does not clear me as town. Well, yes, that's widely known. Though, I think it makes it much more likely I am town because most scum teams would want to use their RB there to prevent a cop scan.

SECOND PILLAR: "The more I look at VCA, the more it looks like Balki has been saving snowy. Balki pushed for the Stressed Wagon and got an absolute miracle in Ghug, Snowy and Jamie all flipping, then Balki got on the Telamor wagon reaaaaaaaal late with a few other people and Snowy lives again."[/quote]

I think it's fair to say that I have been saving Snowy. Doesn't take a whole lot of "looks at VCA" to see that. But that doesn't make me scum, right? You purportedly don't know Snowy's alignment, right?

I have been uncomfortable with a Snowy lynch on D2 and D3. I have voted off his wagon both days, and on Day 2, I tried pretty hard to start up a competing wagon in the final 30 minutes or so of the phase.

So, one explanation is that I am Scum trying to save my scum teammate. That would be pretty heavy-handed scumwork, but it's a possibility to consider. The other possible explanation is that I am town, and I did not feel comfortable with a Snowy lynch.

All you've done is say what a possible Scum narrative is -- you haven't compared it to the Town narrative. Why don't you discuss those possibilities together and tell us why you think one or the other is more likely?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Now Balki and Snowy are pushing together on DrCJG. Regardless of his alignment, I could see the scum team taking a sac fly at this point to build some town cred for a couple people.

[][]vote Balki

What does this last part mean with the "sac fly" comment? Are you saying you think that Scum Balki and Scum Snowy "could be" working together to lynch Scum Telamor?

Okay, cool. So why don't you vote Telamor with me, and then don't give me any credit for it when he flips scum.

Telamor is dead, try again.

What I meant by that is regardless of who is scum they can have a couple people bus one member hard for some town cred because of the lead they have

Sorry, I mixed up Telamore and DRC. Why don't you vote DRC with me and then don't give me any credit for it when he flips scum.

Also -- I really don't think scum will be inclined to bus hard today. Scum want to kill cop, or narrow the cop pool. Also, the fact that Town has no Scum flips to analyze makes the game really hard. I don't expect that Scum are itching to kill their own today. Do you disagree? Why?

[RagingIke297]

@RagingIke,

I see two pillars to your Balki case:

FIRST PILLAR: "I guess Balki could be the hooker and they RB/NK'ed the same person N1 to give him a soft clear."

Why does that make me Hooker? All you're really saying here is that my N1 RB does not clear me as town. Well, yes, that's widely known. Though, I think it makes it much more likely I am town because most scum teams would want to use their RB there to prevent a cop scan.

SECOND PILLAR: "The more I look at VCA, the more it looks like Balki has been saving snowy. Balki pushed for the Stressed Wagon and got an absolute miracle in Ghug, Snowy and Jamie all flipping, then Balki got on the Telamor wagon reaaaaaaaal late with a few other people and Snowy lives again."

I think it's fair to say that I have been saving Snowy. Doesn't take a whole lot of "looks at VCA" to see that. But that doesn't make me scum, right? You purportedly don't know Snowy's alignment, right?

I have been uncomfortable with a Snowy lynch on D2 and D3. I have voted off his wagon both days, and on Day 2, I tried pretty hard to start up a competing wagon in the final 30 minutes or so of the phase.

So, one explanation is that I am Scum trying to save my scum teammate. That would be pretty heavy-handed scumwork, but it's a possibility to consider. The other possible explanation is that I am town, and I did not feel comfortable with a Snowy lynch.

All you've done is say what a possible Scum narrative is -- you haven't compared it to the Town narrative. Why don't you discuss those possibilities together and tell us why you think one or the other is more likely?
[/quote]

Though, I think it makes it much more likely I am town because most scum teams would want to use their RB there to prevent a cop scan.

Or scum did what they did on D2 on D1 where it looks like they killed and roleblocked the same person, you just claimed D1 and no other scum did D2.

I did not feel comfortable with a Snowy lynch.

Why? he's done nothing.

Why don't you discuss those possibilities together and tell us why you think one or the other is more likely?

Because I have a job and I can't play mafia all day.

What does this last part mean with the "sac fly" comment? Are you saying you think that Scum Balki and Scum Snowy "could be" working together to lynch Scum Telamor?

Okay, cool. So why don't you vote Telamor with me, and then don't give me any credit for it when he flips scum.

Telamor is dead, try again.

What I meant by that is regardless of who is scum they can have a couple people bus one member hard for some town cred because of the lead they have

Sorry, I mixed up Telamore and DRC. Why don't you vote DRC with me and then don't give me any credit for it when he flips scum.

Also -- I really don't think scum will be inclined to bus hard today. Scum want to kill cop, or narrow the cop pool. Also, the fact that Town has no Scum flips to analyze makes the game really hard. I don't expect that Scum are itching to kill their own today. Do you disagree? Why?

I think that scum will do anything they can do to better their position and they have a FULL playbook right now because of the lead they have, so anything is possible at this point

Funny how you were the one to bring up this cop pool thing and are now advocating that I lynch someone with you who is in the cop pool which you yourself recommended against doing

[DrCJG]

DrCJG: Where does Ike fall on your list?

Fair question, I have been leaving him off in general and part of my reason for wanting to go back and look for associations is to determine if my other reads make it more likely Ike is scum or doctor and to see whether his flip would actually provide solid information...

but if I have to place him in the list at the moment, I think his rationale for never trying to self save combined with him not being NK'd or RB'd until now places him between Bo and Sno as scumlean.

[thamrick]

I am having a hard time sorting Balki. His defensivenes against Fox seems off, but I still don't think I am ready to vote him.

I still think Thamrick is scum, his attempt to use Xorxes N1 reads and a joke post to base an analysis is a thing I didn't expect from town Thamrick.

If I need to choose between Balki, Ezio and Snowy I will vote Snowy. He will give us more info and even if he is town it's an easy myslinch for the end game.

What joke post are you talking about?

You included two Xorxes quotes, one with his actual N1 reads and one where he emulate a Mafia QT chat that I take as joke specially because he didn't include half of them on his scum list wrote 15 minutes later.

It's possible it was a joke, but he included Ezio and Chaqa in his null category and Ike as town until proven otherwise. I don't think he meant it as a joke. A reaction test possibly. But I think he included his two best guesses at scum from his null category,

[RagingIke297]

You know, everyone is talking about me self saving and why I didn't do it and what have you. Can anyone give me a legit reason I should have been self-saving? It provides no value in my eyes, if I miss (which I probably will since scum haven't been targeting me and if they did they could RB/Kill me) we lose a town, on the off chance I save myself why would anyone believe me that I did self save and its not just scum holding the kill for me? It doesn't add any credibility to my claim. The best way I can help town is by making a save that isn't myself so I can give the town a clear even if its for just a day. Other town members should like this too because if I'm scum, a "self save" would only reveal me when I get lynched, if I "save" someone else I would need to bring in another scum member to build credibility and when the lies fell apart there would be a second member of the team that went down with me.

Scum don't want to flip me, there's too much info that is solidified by my flip so I'm even less concerned about getting killed

[Tom Bombadil]

Vote Count 4.3

Balki Bartokomous (4): Foxcastle, Ezio, thamrick, RagingIke297
Ezio (3): dargorygel, bo_sox48, Jamiet99uk
Snowy801 (2): DemonRHK, yavuzovic
DrCJG (2): snowy801, Balki Bartokomous
Thamrick (1): rdrivera2005
Yavuzovic (1): DrCJG
Jamiet99uk (1): TrPrado
Bo_sox48 (1): peterlund

Currently Balki Bartokomous is set to be lynched



There are 5 hours remaining in D4.

[yavuzovic]

DrC, why am I on the top of you scumreads? And why don't you vote me if you think I'm scum.

[RagingIke297]

DrC, why am I on the top of you scumreads? And why don't you vote me if you think I'm scum.

I swear Yav has questioned 99% of the votes cast for him and asks for a explanation

He is voting for you Yav

[Foxcastle]

I've been looking at Ezio, Tham, and Ike on the Balki wagon with me. They're all in my scumreads. And so I wonder if they're going to bus Balki for town cred.

But at this point, I think scum want to spread out and avoid bussing. (Which Balki also pointed out.) Or at least avoid bussing that results in a scum lynch. We obviously have no idea what's going on, and that makes it harder for the 10 townies to coalesce on the right lynch when the 5 scum can diffuse votes and push town wagons. But, then, maybe they'd bus, I don't know.

[RagingIke297]

I've been looking at Ezio, Tham, and Ike on the Balki wagon with me. They're all in my scumreads. And so I wonder if they're going to bus Balki for town cred.

But at this point, I think scum want to spread out and avoid bussing. (Which Balki also pointed out.) Or at least avoid bussing that results in a scum lynch. We obviously have no idea what's going on, and that makes it harder for the 10 townies to coalesce on the right lynch when the 5 scum can diffuse votes and push town wagons. But, then, maybe they'd bus, I don't know.

I'm inclined to believe that any scum we lynch will have 2 scum on their wagon. Enough to get town cred, but not an all out team bus

[Balki Bartokomous]

You know, everyone is talking about me self saving and why I didn't do it and what have you. Can anyone give me a legit reason I should have been self-saving? It provides no value in my eyes, if I miss (which I probably will since scum haven't been targeting me and if they did they could RB/Kill me) we lose a town, on the off chance I save myself why would anyone believe me that I did self save and its not just scum holding the kill for me? It doesn't add any credibility to my claim. The best way I can help town is by making a save that isn't myself so I can give the town a clear even if its for just a day. Other town members should like this too because if I'm scum, a "self save" would only reveal me when I get lynched, if I "save" someone else I would need to bring in another scum member to build credibility and when the lies fell apart there would be a second member of the team that went down with me.

Scum don't want to flip me, there's too much info that is solidified by my flip so I'm even less concerned about getting killed

(1) I would think that a person who just claimed PR and has the power to self save would do it because the PR claimer would believe that there is a high likelihood that Scum would try to kill them.

(2) While a self-save may not completely clear the PR claimer, it would prevent scum from killing a Townie on that night. That's good.

[RagingIke297]

You know, everyone is talking about me self saving and why I didn't do it and what have you. Can anyone give me a legit reason I should have been self-saving? It provides no value in my eyes, if I miss (which I probably will since scum haven't been targeting me and if they did they could RB/Kill me) we lose a town, on the off chance I save myself why would anyone believe me that I did self save and its not just scum holding the kill for me? It doesn't add any credibility to my claim. The best way I can help town is by making a save that isn't myself so I can give the town a clear even if its for just a day. Other town members should like this too because if I'm scum, a "self save" would only reveal me when I get lynched, if I "save" someone else I would need to bring in another scum member to build credibility and when the lies fell apart there would be a second member of the team that went down with me.

Scum don't want to flip me, there's too much info that is solidified by my flip so I'm even less concerned about getting killed

(1) I would think that a person who just claimed PR and has the power to self save would do it because the PR claimer would believe that there is a high likelihood that Scum would try to kill them.

(2) While a self-save may not completely clear the PR claimer, it would prevent scum from killing a Townie on that night. That's good.

The last sentence of my post cancels point 1, and you've canceled point 2 yourself earlier today

I'd like to lynch RagingIke. I just feel like my reads are flailing, and I need to know something concrete. Also, lynching RagingIke now prevents Scum from narrowing down Cop further, which is critical right now.

Saving myself would take away 0 uncertainty until there is either a counterclaim and resolution or I flip. A save of another person is MUCH more credible in my eyes and should be in the eyes of every townie.

Once again Scum don't want to flip me, there's too much info that is solidified by my flip. ONLY a scum would want me to self save because they know they aren't going to kill me so it gives them a 100% chance of a kill with or without a RB against me.

[Balki Bartokomous]

^ Nonesense.

[bo_sox48]

Why did you choose Foxcastle?

[DrCJG]

DrC, why am I on the top of you scumreads? And why don't you vote me if you think I'm scum.

@ Yav - I see that Ike has already pointed out that I am voting for you...

But my reasons:

First, let me refer everyone to page 40 where I started my scumread of you:

You haven't said much since (not that I have much room to talk), but what you have said hasn't changed my opinion:

D3

I found snowy scummy yesterday but I can't find any reason now, I ISO his messaging history, maybe I can find some impression. For now he is null.
snowy801

I'll be looking for more read. Now: ##vote Jamiet
Also a couple question:
Do we have to lynch a scum to win the game?

Yeah, Jamie. You are actually right and I'm realising that I have no more evidence to vote you. Hmmm, could it stay on you until I have a scumread?

Ye,
##vote snowy
Scums will start to lose men.

In a familiar turn of events you went from reading snowy as null and voting Jamiet to voting snowy without any explanation (though you indicated you would continue voting Jamie until you had a scumread) within the course of 1 page.

D4

Okay, ##vote snowy
If I can't read good I just follow others. But I also scumread Snowy too. I told you before, I think at least one of snowy and Jamiet is scum.

- Voting with the masses screams scum to me, particularly with such an early vote... but you had considered snowy scum previously... yet, you now think Jamie is back into the mix without explanation having previously said you had no evidence on Jamie.

I'd like to lynch RagingIke. I just feel like my reads are flailing, and I need to know something concrete. Also, lynching RagingIke now prevents Scum from narrowing down Cop further, which is critical right now.

But this is very dangerous. If somebody else claimed to be doc too, I'd consider. But risking the only cop claim is too dangerous.

- Did you mean risking the only "doctor" claim? And of course if someone else claimed doctor we would be looking to lynch one of them... again this just felt like trying to blend in by siding with the masses rather than providing an opinion/analysis.

You are providing little to no substantive questions or analysis and are instead jumping around with your votes in a very reactionary manner...

[RagingIke297]

(1) I would think that a person who just claimed PR and has the power to self save would do it because the PR claimer would believe that there is a high likelihood that Scum would try to kill them.

(2) While a self-save may not completely clear the PR claimer, it would prevent scum from killing a Townie on that night. That's good.

^no u