MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

[Balki Bartokomous]

I THINK THIS IS MY MOST IMPORTANT POST IN TEH GAME SO FAR. I'M SORRY IT'S A BIT LONG. PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO READ IT.

@Thamrick

Okay...so, I just read your ISO.

What?

Can you explain your progression on me?

You town read me pretty hard for most of the game. Now that I have some pressure and may very well be lynched today, you're voting me, and I don't think you've explained how you did a 180.

Here are the earlier statements you made about me that stand out:

Day 1:

“Balki feels a little over-the-top at times which keeps him from the strong townreads, but I feel like he's reading the entire game more than he did when he played as scum”

You voted for RagingIke and stayed there on Day 1 after I voted there.

Day 2:

You said you believed my RB claim:

“I tend to believe Balki's claim. It doesn't make a lot of sense from scum perspective, but it also seems like an unnecessary risk to take from scum.”

Then you followed my vote onto Stressedlines in the final 2 minutes of the phase.

I don't like snowy or Jamie either Balki.

[][]VOTE StressedLines

Night 2:

You listed me as the second most towny in the game after Teacher:

Heading in to work again in 10 mins so sorry for the brevity.

Town to scum:

teacher
Balki
darg
Jamie
yavuzovic
rdrivera
DrCJG
Ezio
Telamor
ghug
RHK
TrPrado
snowy
peterlund

Day 3:

You townread me again:

I townread Balki. I think Balki enjoys playing more as scum than he does as town tbh. When Balki was scum, he was engaging in much more detailed cases and generating cases against people. I feel like he's sitting back a little more in this one and reading other people's interactions.

You followed my vote, AGAIN:

I saw Balki's vote and didn't want to risk it ending in a tie. I'd hardly call it saving snowy. Though his last post seemed pretty towny.

Day 4

Now it's Day 4. And for the first time I have real pressure and there is a high likelihood I will be lynched, and you write this:

Reading that Foxy/Balki exchange the last few pages, I couldn't help but be reminded of how Balki was interacting with MLQ a few games back.

[][]VOTE Balki

WHAT?

You town read me all game. You followed my vote every single day. And now that it looks like I may be lynched, you vote me for the reason that "I couldn't help but be reminded of how Balki was interacting with MLQ a few games back"

Then I asked you the real reason you are voting me, and you say:

I'm scumreading you because of your connections to the NK's (particularly xorxes and teacher. ghug was up and down on you).

That is bogus. First, come on -- that's all WIFOM. Second, scum are almost certainly hunting for PRs. Third, none of the night kill targets have tried to get me lynched. At best, two of them have stated mild suspicions of me, without even voting for me, as far as I recall.

You are assuming that Scum Balki is directing all of the night kills, AND he wants to kill people who suspect him rather than kill PRs, AND he targets people who only mildly suspect him instead of the people who have pushed for his lynch like Peterlund and rdrivera??? Hogwash.

But the bigger issue with your vote is that this concern that you now have that some of the NK targets suspected me existed on Day 2 and Day 3 as well. But on those days you Town read me and followed my vote!

So now ghug dies, who did not scumread me, and now you flip your opinion from a scum read to a town read based on "your connections to the NK's."

It doesn't add up.

##Vote Thamrick

[Foxcastle]

Why are all your Thamrick quotes there mislabeled as me?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Why are all your Thamrick quotes there mislabeled as me?

Ah. Just a drafting error. Sorry about that.

[RagingIke297]

Reads change during the game Balki, D1 you were defending Thamrick from me, look where we are now...

[Balki Bartokomous]

Reads change during the game Balki, D1 you were defending Thamrick from me, look where we are now...

Yeah. Reads change. When a townie changes reads, it is usually based on a good reason, or at least a reason that can be articulated. When a scum changes reads, it is often based on an agenda.

Thamrick's reasons don't make sense from a towny perspective, but they do make sense from an agenda perspective.

Scum Thamrick would have wanted to get on my good side and wouldn't have wanted to get into a cage match with me early in the game. But now, after there has been a lot of pressure on me, and I might flip today, Scum Thamrick would very much want to grease the wheels of that wagon.

This is a situation where the Scum Thamrick narrative (wanted to pocket Balki early, but wanted to hang Balki when it seemed possible) seems an awful lot more likely than the Town Thamrick narrative (genuine evolution in read).

[RagingIke297]

@Balki you went from this earlier in the day

I am more inclined to lynch Ike, Snowy, or Jamiet today than I otherwise would be.

To this

I like the DRC and Thamrick wagons, so I hope the people there don’t feel like they have to move to Snowy, Ezio, or Balki

You followed Snowy onto DrCJG and now you've followed RDR onto Thamrick, it almost feels like you're poking around to see who you can get lynched that's in this "cop pool" you were talking about.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Balki you went from this earlier in the day

I am more inclined to lynch Ike, Snowy, or Jamiet today than I otherwise would be.

To this

I like the DRC and Thamrick wagons, so I hope the people there don’t feel like they have to move to Snowy, Ezio, or Balki

You followed Snowy onto DrCJG and now you've followed RDR onto Thamrick, it almost feels like you're poking around to see who you can get lynched that's in this "cop pool" you were talking about.

Yeah -- that sounds like a pretty brilliant scum strategy doesn't it? Tell everyone that scum wants to lynch in the cop pool, and then try to lynch in the cop pool.

No -- I'd still love to lynch outside the cop pool. But, as I've said, I read both Snowy and Jamiet as Town. I'd be pleased to lynch you, Ike, but it's pretty clear to me that wagon has a max occupancy of 1-2 today.

Also, my life is on the line. So, it should not be any surprise that I am pushing my other scum reads.

[RagingIke297]

@Balki you went from this earlier in the day

I am more inclined to lynch Ike, Snowy, or Jamiet today than I otherwise would be.

To this

I like the DRC and Thamrick wagons, so I hope the people there don’t feel like they have to move to Snowy, Ezio, or Balki

You followed Snowy onto DrCJG and now you've followed RDR onto Thamrick, it almost feels like you're poking around to see who you can get lynched that's in this "cop pool" you were talking about.

Yeah -- that sounds like a pretty brilliant scum strategy doesn't it? Tell everyone that scum wants to lynch in the cop pool, and then try to lynch in the cop pool.

No -- I'd still love to lynch outside the cop pool. But, as I've said, I read both Snowy and Jamiet as Town. I'd be pleased to lynch you, Ike, but it's pretty clear to me that wagon has a max occupancy of 1-2 today.

Also, my life is on the line. So, it should not be any surprise that I am pushing my other scum reads.

Sounds like WIFOM to me

I'm sure you would be pleased, but I've said it before, I'm a day 6-7 lynch

So why are you not pushing a larger wagon? You will be later in the day, why not get on Ezio who would have 4 votes instead of making little 2 vote wagons?

[RagingIke297]

Also, why say

I am more inclined to lynch Ike, Snowy, or Jamiet today than I otherwise would be.

if you town read Snowy and Jamie?
You're more inclined to lynch them, but not enough to actually do it?

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Thamrick

And another point --

It is a bad theory to say that Balki is scum because people who have been NKed suspected Balki was scum.

Go read any Mafia QT in which I have ever been mafia. You can see exactly what I look for in a NK target. I look for Cops. I am a freakin Cop Killer. Always. I have never, and would never, ask the entire team of 5 mafia members to go kill some towny because that townie suspected I might be scum. That doesn't make sense.

Your theory is that on Night 1 -- after I received almost no pressure on Day 1 -- the mafia team of 5's strategy was to waste a RB so that I could claim RB AND kill Xorxes because he listed me as a slight scum read?

That's an awful lot of work to protect Balki at a time when Balki was under no heat, don't you think?

Do you really believe that? That is what caused you to completely swap your Town Balki read toa Scum Balki read?

Is that really true? Do you understand why that sounds like something you just made up on the fly after I pointed out that your "this looks like the MLQ thing" wasn't actually a scumtell, it was a nulltell?

[RagingIke297]

@Everyone I was at a work conference all yesterday and didn't post for like 40 consecutive hours. How the hell am I the third most prolific poster today?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Also, why say

I am more inclined to lynch Ike, Snowy, or Jamiet today than I otherwise would be.

if you town read Snowy and Jamie?
You're more inclined to lynch them, but not enough to actually do it?

I am more inclined to lynch Ike/Snowy/Jamiet than I otherwise would be because I don't want to narrow the cop suspects today if we can avoid it.

So, if the lynch comes down to say Demon vs. Jamiet (two town reads of mine), I'd rather lynch Jamiet.

If it comes down to Ike vs. Thamrick (two scum reads of mine), I'd rather lynch Ike.

Clear enough?

[Balki Bartokomous]

@RagingIke, since you are here, what do you think of Thamrick's (1) progression on Balki over the course of the game, and (2) reasons for saying he suspects Balki now?

Do you think Thamrick is being sincere in his Balki progression and vote? What do you think his reasons are? And how do you view Thamrick's alignment right now?

[RagingIke297]

@Thamrick

And another point --

It is a bad theory to say that Balki is scum because people who have been NKed suspected Balki was scum.

Go read any Mafia QT in which I have ever been mafia. You can see exactly what I look for in a NK target. I look for Cops. I am a freakin Cop Killer. Always. I have never, and would never, ask the entire team of 5 mafia members to go kill some towny because that townie suspected I might be scum. That doesn't make sense.

Your theory is that on Night 1 -- after I received almost no pressure on Day 1 -- the mafia team of 5's strategy was to waste a RB so that I could claim RB AND kill Xorxes because he listed me as a slight scum read?

That's an awful lot of work to protect Balki at a time when Balki was under no heat, don't you think?

Do you really believe that? That is what caused you to completely swap your Town Balki read toa Scum Balki read?

Is that really true? Do you understand why that sounds like something you just made up on the fly after I pointed out that your "this looks like the MLQ thing" wasn't actually a scumtell, it was a nulltell?

Changing from meta isn't that hard to do

I also believe that there might have been 2 same person RB/Kills N1 and N2. With no one claiming N2 I'm lead to believe that either scum did it on purpose to solidify your claim or someone was supposed to claim it and got subbed and the scum team didn't want to risk claiming then having Chaqa/Reeder show up and not read the forum and counterclaim.

Also, why say

I am more inclined to lynch Ike, Snowy, or Jamiet today than I otherwise would be.

if you town read Snowy and Jamie?
You're more inclined to lynch them, but not enough to actually do it?

I am more inclined to lynch Ike/Snowy/Jamiet than I otherwise would be because I don't want to narrow the cop suspects today if we can avoid it.

So, if the lynch comes down to say Demon vs. Jamiet (two town reads of mine), I'd rather lynch Jamiet.

If it comes down to Ike vs. Thamrick (two scum reads of mine), I'd rather lynch Ike.

Clear enough?

This is crystal clear, but why put that info out there? Scum can now more efficiently drive a town wagon since they know how you'll vote.

[RagingIke297]

@RagingIke, since you are here, what do you think of Thamrick's (1) progression on Balki over the course of the game, and (2) reasons for saying he suspects Balki now?

Do you think Thamrick is being sincere in his Balki progression and vote? What do you think his reasons are? And how do you view Thamrick's alignment right now?

I'll look into this, why are you referring to yourself in the the third person?

[dargorygel]

I've been looking at Ezio, Tham, and Ike on the Balki wagon with me. They're all in my scumreads. And so I wonder if they're going to bus Balki for town cred.

But at this point, I think scum want to spread out and avoid bussing. (Which Balki also pointed out.) Or at least avoid bussing that results in a scum lynch. We obviously have no idea what's going on, and that makes it harder for the 10 townies to coalesce on the right lynch when the 5 scum can diffuse votes and push town wagons. But, then, maybe they'd bus, I don't know.

possibly scumfoxy signaling to other scummies to not buss together?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Changing from meta isn't that hard to do

So, let me get this straight? You think Scum Balki went to the Mafia QT and said:

"Hey guys, I'd like us to use our NK tonight on Xorxes because my meta has always been that I hunt for PRs, and so I want to hunt for someone who listed me as a slight scum read instead because later, if someone says "you killed Xorxes night 1 because he read you as slight scum," I can come back to that with "no, that's not a thing that mafia do, and it's not a thing that I've ever done as mafia"?

That is...ridiculous. That would mean I would have to envision that somebody would latch onto the "well, Xorx had a slight scum read on Balki, so Balki must be scum" theory, and then spring my counter-argument, which would do nothing except blunt the force of that attack. Isn't it much more reasonable and likely that scum just killed Xorx based on a combination of (1) he's a sharp town player and (2) they suspected he could be cop?

I also believe that there might have been 2 same person RB/Kills N1 and N2. With no one claiming N2 I'm lead to believe that either scum did it on purpose to solidify your claim or someone was supposed to claim it and got subbed and the scum team didn't want to risk claiming then having Chaqa/Reeder show up and not read the forum and counterclaim.

That's possible. But if scum did that on N1, they made a sacrifice in order to provide some cover for me, do you understand that? Because the optimal play there is to use your RB to try to stop a cop scan. So, they would have to make a sacrifice to provide me with some "cover."

That would be a pretty odd/unusual play because (1) I was under hardly any pressure at all on Day 1 and (2) historically on Webdip the person who is RB on N1 does not get any cover at all. People start leaping to conspiracy theories about throwing away RBs and it just gives the person who was RBed scumread or lynched.

This is crystal clear, but why put that info out there? Scum can now more efficiently drive a town wagon since they know how you'll vote.

You're asking why I'm putting my reads and lynch preferences out into the public?

Because we need this information from everyone in order to sort out who is scum and who is town.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@RagingIke, since you are here, what do you think of Thamrick's (1) progression on Balki over the course of the game, and (2) reasons for saying he suspects Balki now?

Do you think Thamrick is being sincere in his Balki progression and vote? What do you think his reasons are? And how do you view Thamrick's alignment right now?

I'll look into this, why are you referring to yourself in the the third person?

Just avoiding pronouns to make stuff easier to read and follow.

[RagingIke297]

Changing from meta isn't that hard to do

So, let me get this straight? You think Scum Balki went to the Mafia QT and said:

"Hey guys, I'd like us to use our NK tonight on Xorxes because my meta has always been that I hunt for PRs, and so I want to hunt for someone who listed me as a slight scum read instead because later, if someone says "you killed Xorxes night 1 because he read you as slight scum," I can come back to that with "no, that's not a thing that mafia do, and it's not a thing that I've ever done as mafia"?

That is...ridiculous. That would mean I would have to envision that somebody would latch onto the "well, Xorx had a slight scum read on Balki, so Balki must be scum" theory, and then spring my counter-argument, which would do nothing except blunt the force of that attack. Isn't it much more reasonable and likely that scum just killed Xorx based on a combination of (1) he's a sharp town player and (2) they suspected he could be cop?

I also believe that there might have been 2 same person RB/Kills N1 and N2. With no one claiming N2 I'm lead to believe that either scum did it on purpose to solidify your claim or someone was supposed to claim it and got subbed and the scum team didn't want to risk claiming then having Chaqa/Reeder show up and not read the forum and counterclaim.

That's possible. But if scum did that on N1, they made a sacrifice in order to provide some cover for me, do you understand that? Because the optimal play there is to use your RB to try to stop a cop scan. So, they would have to make a sacrifice to provide me with some "cover."

That would be a pretty odd/unusual play because (1) I was under hardly any pressure at all on Day 1 and (2) historically on Webdip the person who is RB on N1 does not get any cover at all. People start leaping to conspiracy theories about throwing away RBs and it just gives the person who was RBed scumread or lynched.

I understand perfectly, this game is all about trade offs, why not trade a role block for some cover? All the better is on someone that's not under pressure, so its less suspect. Mayve you thought Xorxes was cop, I wouldn't know. Have you seen anyone else talking about throwing away RB's beside me? I don't see too many people jumping on the chance to call your claim false, it was actually pretty accepted D2

[Balki Bartokomous]

Townies who vote to lynch me right now are making a big mistake

(1) I was RBed on Night 1

Is it possible that I am still Scum? Of course it is. It is possible that Scum sacrificed their RB to give me cover. But that would be odd considering I was under no pressure, and it happens so often on this website that the person who gets RBed by scum ends up getting a lot of negative attention and eventually lynched for it.

(2) I have been active and aggressive

Again, is this in my scumrange too? Yes, it is. This is null from the perspective of my alignment. But it's worth noting that you would be killing one of the more active players who, if town, is actually trying. You will be left with the likes of whomever is town among snowy/Ezio/DRC/Bo/peter/Darg and others who are not really trying very hard.

(3) If I am Town, Scum think I may be Cop

If I am Town, you know I was RB on Day 1 and I have not been a leading wagon on any day. Thus, I am definitely a person who scum thinks might be Cop. They definitely want to lynch me, or get me on a lead wagon near enough to end of day that I would have to claim. Consider that when you see who is trying to make my wagon viable. And consider that if I am Town, I am a likely NK target tonight.