MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

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snowy801
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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1881 Post by snowy801 » Thu May 17, 2018 11:28 pm

so Adele comes before Lione Richie now eh

I shall.be present, reading snd pondering the mysteries of the universe
just in case anyone wanted to know

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1882 Post by snowy801 » Thu May 17, 2018 11:43 pm

has anyone done any nk analysis? Why you suspect the people who died were killed?
I don't recall, any, so I invite you to try and point out any extant ones I've missed

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1883 Post by snowy801 » Thu May 17, 2018 11:59 pm

I must admit I'm genuinely impressed by how little Chaqa posted before being subbed out

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1884 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Fri May 18, 2018 12:12 am

Foxcastle wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 11:12 pm
Balki, firstly, I apologize for being rude.
Thanks for this. No problem at all. I'm guilty of this too.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1885 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Fri May 18, 2018 12:13 am

snowy801 wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 11:59 pm
I must admit I'm genuinely impressed by how little Chaqa posted before being subbed out
Great point Snowy. It's pretty frustrating when someone signs up for the game and then doesn't seem to care about it at all, right?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1886 Post by snowy801 » Fri May 18, 2018 12:16 am

I'm not sure you and I have the same definition of "impressed" balks

but I'm about to solve the game. all I needed was pen and paper. (and many deaths)
hang on

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1887 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Fri May 18, 2018 12:22 am

snowy801 wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 12:16 am
I'm not sure you and I have the same definition of "impressed" balks

but I'm about to solve the game. all I needed was pen and paper. (and many deaths)
hang on
Standing by.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1888 Post by snowy801 » Fri May 18, 2018 12:27 am

wait a while longer, because there's a lot of shit I have to finish reading
and then there's the part where I have to think, but fortunately that won't take long since I never do that anyway

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1889 Post by snowy801 » Fri May 18, 2018 12:30 am

does anyone have opinions on dargoville?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1890 Post by rdrivera2005 » Fri May 18, 2018 1:27 am

I don't know what to do with this Fox/Balki conversation. My first thought is that it was two town smashing heads, but it could be a theater.

@Snowy - If your are town by any chance stop with this crap and honour the two town that died to save your pathetic ass. And I discussed why I think Dargo is scum in a post from today, go find it.

@Thamrick - I am still waiting forr you to answer your own questions.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1891 Post by Ezio » Fri May 18, 2018 1:47 am

##vote Balki.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1892 Post by snowy801 » Fri May 18, 2018 2:10 am

sorry, I got waylaid talking about dropshipping, of all things

and wow, rivera, you sure know how to motivate someone. The first time I actually sit down and try to figure out the game you tell me to stop being pathetic

but nonetheless, I shall persevere because I am a trooper. And believe it or not, I do enjoy these games.

Though maybe I should just be a spectator next time

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1893 Post by snowy801 » Fri May 18, 2018 2:27 am

alright well progress report since this is taking longer than expected:

town: bo_sox, DRHK, rdrivera, TrPrado
scum: drcjg, ike

I'm working on the rest, but I'm going to take a shower first.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1894 Post by thamrick » Fri May 18, 2018 2:29 am

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 5:47 pm
Yes, me and Bozo have scumread each other in some games, sometimes it was right (he was scum or I was scum) and sometimes we were both town. Bozo is dead since D1 and was a VT, the only moment he referred to me was in that joke vote. I didn’t even have a read on him before he flipped town. Again, I ask what you expect to get with this questioning? This is what exactly I meant with “questioning to seem active”. And this is scummy, as this is exactly what scum usually do, as they already know all the answers about who is scum and can´t make questions that give good answers for town. If you think I am scum you should be making another type of questions. To be honest, your last ones are a bit better, but I don’t give you much credit as it was after I questioned you.

What I feel when I read the EOD1 was that it was clear to me Bozo was town, why a scum Bozo that was not under pressure will jump in the EOD and start engaging the way he did? I was also
scumreading Ike and seems to me that it was clear Bozo was a scum conterwagon.

About EOD1, I think Bozo was right when he said nothing happened when he put Peterlund on the lead, but he started to get voted when he put Ike on the lke. This is compatible with Ike being scum, that is what I believe. About the votes, I think some scum were on Ike, some scum were on Bozo and some scum on other targets. This is pretty obvious, but D1 is usually the hardest day for scum to vote together as they haven´t talked and don´t know how the others will react, so they usually avoid having more then two in the same wagon (the game with an open QT was an exception, because scum can coordenate the votes). What I expect is we have at least one scum pinned on Ike as they can´t move because of either a strong scumread on him onr a townread on Peter or Bozo. The most likely options are you or Balki.

I bet on two scums on Bozo (three if you count Ike). I think it could be Dargo and Jamiet. I am more and more concerned about Dargo. His vote on Bozo D1 was hedgy, he anchored a vote on Snowy all D2 and on D3 he choosed to lynch Telamor over Snowy. I think he is coasting and it’s my best bet for the deep threat on the scum team. And Jamiet is hard to read in this game, at least to me, I scumread him at times, townread him in others, but at this moment I think he might be scum and this could explain D2.

And the last scum is among the other, I would bet on Bo, Ezio or Prado, in this order, but it´s a wild bet.

So, now that I answered your questions, would you share your answers for the same questions? How do you see EOD1? How do you think scum votes will spread and who do you think is scum?
Sorry for the delay. Like I said, work sucks for my mafia playing.

I disagree. Your responses definitely help me see how you were and are interpreting the game.

At first I didn't really think much about bozo. I noted his vote for you with his reasoning being that he always scumreads you. It stood out to me when reading it so I thought it was a decent place to drop my vote. When bozo came back online with ~1.5hrs til EoD, I had become pretty convinced that Ike was scum. Bozo seemed to be looking better but I thought he still could be scum. I was honestly fine with both wagons at EoD.

As for where the scum likely were:

if Ike is town:
probably pretty spread out. They would have known that both wagons were safe. They would have been working hard to shape EoD to be TvT as well. They would have at least considered that Ike's PR claim was real. If they were on Ike already, okay they could ride it out and hope he hangs, but with still 4 mins to go when Ike claimed, it was unlikely that he'd be the lynch. Switching to bozo seems like it would be the right play as scum since they could easily justify their vote later. However, it's possible they'd stick it out on Ike as well.

In that scenario, I think the breakdown would be something like:

0-2 on Ike (me/Balki/you)
0-1 in the group that switched to Ike after the claim (reedeer(Foxy)/Jamie/peter)
1-2 already on bozo (DrCJG/snowy/darg)
1-3 on a different wagon (Chaqa(bo)/TrPrado/yav/Ezio/RHK)


if Ike is scum:
probably more consolidated. He was likely being bussed by at least 1 teammate and possibly 2. Again, his claim likely gave good cover to move off. It's possible that a teammate would stay to avoid being suspected, but I still think the play would be to move. With a scum on the block, they definitely would have been working hard to find a counterwagon. Breakdown is probably:

1- Ike
0-1 still on Ike
0-2 switching
1-2 already on bozo
1-2 on a different wagon


My best guess at the scumteam would be Ike/Balki/peter/bo/DrCJG

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1895 Post by snowy801 » Fri May 18, 2018 2:57 am

I dunno, I'm currently thinking pete is town and Balki is scum
but unfortunately I'm out of time. I'll try to see when I can be on tomorrow

##vote drcjg

two things stand out to me
eod1: he keeps asking people about their case on Ike. Prior to that, he hedges pretty hard on him and despite scum reading Ike at some points choose to vote Bozo instead and

well, take a look. It's pretty dirty

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?user=*drcjg&g=36
p24-27

the other thing was how he kept mentioning how he doesn't think the move to stressed was an attempt by scum to save James and I (way more than would be necessary to make that point) and frankly has very contradictory statements regarding our relative alignments

p63-64

and other things, etc etc

good night everyone. Here's to hoping that I'll be able to play during n4/d5. Or not, depending

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1896 Post by dargorygel » Fri May 18, 2018 3:09 am

adding to my earlier stuff... today ezio reads the heat and shade being pushed on Balki and anchors a vote on shady Balki... and silence.

Anyone else wanna join me on ezio?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1897 Post by thamrick » Fri May 18, 2018 3:31 am

Reading that Foxy/Balki exchange the last few pages, I couldn't help but be reminded of how Balki was interacting with MLQ a few games back.

##VOTE Balki

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1898 Post by thamrick » Fri May 18, 2018 3:42 am

xorxes wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 8:58 pm
From the Mafia QT:

Ezio: <b> kill xorxes</b> before he finds us all out.
Ike: Phew, that was a close one.
Balki: You were meant to die, now I will have to bus another one of you tomorrow to get towncred.
Telamor: Should I keep pushing the Prado?
[hours later] Chaqa: Hi guys! I just read my PM and found the link here, what did I miss?
xorxes wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 9:16 pm
Updated reads:

Towniest: Ike (unless and until proven otherwise), Dargo, Teacher, Prado, yavu
Townish: ghug, Jamiet, DrCJG, thamrick, DemonRHK
Null of all nullity: Chaqa, Ezio, reedeer, Stressedlines, snowy
Scumish: Balki, Telamor, peterlund, rdrivera
Scumiest: No strong scum read at this point.
Maybe that's why xorxes was NK'd. It's possible he nailed a good chunk of the scumteam and they reacted by NK'ing him. I've reread xorxes multiple times and I don't see anything that hints at a copclaim. peter pointed out earlier xorxes using the phrase "until he finds us all out" as a possible reason he was killed as a copread but that just seems too weak to me.

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1899 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Fri May 18, 2018 3:51 am

thamrick wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 3:31 am
Reading that Foxy/Balki exchange the last few pages, I couldn't help but be reminded of how Balki was interacting with MLQ a few games back.

[][]VOTE Balki
This is an incomplete theory.

You played a recent game with me where I was scum. I do something that reminds you of something I did in that game. So you think I’m scum here too.

Sounds pretty good, but it doesn’t hold up. You don’t mention any Town Balki meta for comparison. You need to compare to atown Balki meta so that you know if this “thing” that reminds you of Balki in the prior game is just how Balki is always, or if it is only how Balki is as Scum.

1. Do you see why your stated reason for voting Balki is not strong?
2. have you considered games in which I was Town and tried to sort out whether this unstated way that I’ve interacted here is just how I am or if it’s how I am only as scum?
3. Can you flesh out what it is that you are putting your finger on about my interaction here that is so reminiscent for you?

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Re: MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

#1900 Post by dargorygel » Fri May 18, 2018 3:55 am

Here is a chart of the votes of the NKed people.

Voting of the NK’s:
Xorxes: D1: ree (fox), teacher, telamor, bozo
Teacher: D1: TrPrado, snowy, ezio, No-lynch, Peter, bozo D2: peter, snowy,
Ghug: D1: TrPrado, snowy, Ike// D2 snowy, Peter, ezio, Jamiet, Stress//D3 Tel

The only conclusions I see: lots of snowy votes, (but not xorxes) and a few ezio (again, no xorxes.) Xorxes' voted for three townies, who all ended up killed. He just looks like a fear kill to me. But maybe teacher and ghug were killed for consistent voting on scum?

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