MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

[Foxcastle]

Foxcastle 100% has to go tomorrow even when I'm gone. I can't stress this enough. His analysis this game has been entirely shit and that IS scummy coming from him. He got balki Lynched a few days ago and hasn't been correct about a wagon.

I'm unclear why you think that. I've had one excellent game as scum (beginners luck, but still), why am I so shit as scum this game, then? In the subsequent games, I've been a mediocre townie.

[Jamiet99uk]

Jamiet Snowy has been acting towny pretty much the entire game. The only argument you've made against him is he's lurking, but as I've demonstrated townies absolutely lurk when they get busy.

Well, that's a fucking lie. There's more than just "he's lurking" and if you'd been paying attention to what I've been saying, you'd know that. So either you're not listening, or you're intentionally distorting my reasons for scumreading Snowy.

[Jamiet99uk]

Jamiet Snowy has been acting towny pretty much the entire game. The only argument you've made against him is he's lurking, but as I've demonstrated townies absolutely lurk when they get busy.

I'd need to do a full reread and shit but I think it's likely he's been town this whole time. Each day there have been scum on him and I expect scum would have rather built a new wagon than push his if he was really their teammate.

Okay this is also a lie. Let's look at the three confirmed (dead) scum and whether they voted for Snowy or not.

Day One:
Bo_Sox / Reedeer1 voted Bozo
Dargorygel voted
Thamrick voted RagingIke
Only DemonRHK voted Snowy

Day Two:
Bo_Sox / Reedeer1 failed to vote
Dargorygel voted Snowy
Thamrick voted Stressedlines
Snowy's wagon was DemonRHK, Dargorygel, Teacher2, Yavuzovic

Day Three:
Bo_Sox voted Telamor
Dargorygel voted Telamor
Thamrick voted Telamor
Snowy's wagon was DemonRHK, DrCJG, Jamiet99uk, Peterlund, Rdrivera, Yavuzovic

Day Four:
Bo_Sox voted Ezio
Dargorygel voted Ezio
Thamrick voted Balki
Only RagingIke voted for Snowy.

Day Five:
Nobody voted for Snowy.

Day Six:
Nobody voted for Snowy.

Day Seven:
Snowy's wagon was Yavuzovic, DrCJG, Jamiet99k

So as you can see, only ONE of our confirmed scum ever ended the day on a Snowy wagon, and then only once out of the 7 days that have now elapsed. So this idea that scum have been all over Snowy trying to lynch him every day, is nonsense.

I am not sure why Ezio feels the need to lie to protect Snowy. Hmm.

[Jamiet99uk]

Sorry typo - Dargorygel voted *Bozo* day 1.

[TrPrado]

It's kind of baffling to see someone so confident that they're going to be NK'd when we have no confirmed townies and our PR's are dead.

[TrPrado]

Maybe they genuinely didn't believe him and were hoping the real Doc could be outed?

The big problem there is Ike claimed RB a couple different times, so at the very least thamrick would have believed him. And I assume if thamrick would have believed him others on the scum team would have as well. And what exactly does Fox gain in claiming in all this that Ike could still be scum?

[Jamiet99uk]

Maybe they genuinely didn't believe him and were hoping the real Doc could be outed?

The big problem there is Ike claimed RB a couple different times, so at the very least thamrick would have believed him. And I assume if thamrick would have believed him others on the scum team would have as well. And what exactly does Fox gain in claiming in all this that Ike could still be scum?

Well Ike *was* Doc, so what's your answer?

[Ezio]

Foxcastle you've been *far* worse this game than a mediocre town, and you've been much better than mediocre town in your other games.

There is a Stark difference between your play in past town gamea and this one.

[TrPrado]

Maybe they genuinely didn't believe him and were hoping the real Doc could be outed?

The big problem there is Ike claimed RB a couple different times, so at the very least thamrick would have believed him. And I assume if thamrick would have believed him others on the scum team would have as well. And what exactly does Fox gain in claiming in all this that Ike could still be scum?

Well Ike *was* Doc, so what's your answer?

I feel like you missed the point. I think Ike claiming RB for his last 3 days of life is a sign that the scum team probably did believe he was a PR, and considering this continued after finding cop they would have known he was doc specifically. My answer is that Fox would certainly have to have been pretending here that he believed Ike wasn't doc.

[Ezio]

Idk man. Maybe I'm wrong about snowy and him lurking Dec fits in his scum meta but he feels really town, and players who are far better at reading than me townread snowy at the time of their deatha (ghug and balki). I know other townies scumread snowy but frankly I don't respext their reads as much as balki's.

[Ezio]

Also didn't thamrick end on snowy d2?

[Ezio]

*3 I have my phone

[Jamiet99uk]

Also didn't thamrick end on snowy d2?

The bot shows Thamrick ended D3 on Snowy, however this is incorrect. There was chaos at EoD3 because the forum was lagging. Thamrick's vote for Snowy right on the line was accepted by the GM, but not recorded by the Peterbot.

As I noted, it looks to me from two EoDs in a row that Thamrick jumped to save Snowy. And now we know Thamrick was scum.

[Jamiet99uk]

Sorry, Thamrick's vote for *Telamor*, even.

[TrPrado]

Yeah it’s odd but I think most of the rest of the case against Fox holds up. Except, however, the part where Ezio tries to base it more on meta than he should. Evidence outside of meta exists and he shouldn’t stoop to basing that much of his read of Fox on meta.

[rdrivera2005]

I have done a full reread of Tham:

Day 1 - One of his first posts:

”I'm getting pretty heavy townvibes from Ike, teacher2 and yav.”

Two of them are really town, I tend to believe Yav is also town.

Then he posted a full read list

I'm getting pretty strong townreads from: teacher, and darg

teacher has come out of the gates firing. Analyzing post counts and content, and I've found myself agreeing with a lot of the conclusions he's drawing. darg is asking good questions and feels solvy.

Slight townreads from: balki, RHK, rdr, DrCJG, yav, ghug, Prado

Basically in order of how I feel about them. Balki feels a little over-the-top at times which keeps him from the strong townreads, but I feel like he's reading the entire game more than he did when he played as scum. RHK hasn't posted much, but his few posts have been high quality. rdr and DrCJG seem like they're asking good questions. Yav seems more like town yav. ghug and Prado both have pretty high post counts, but not much memorable content. They're slightly above null for me

Null feelings about: Jamie, peter, snowy, reedeer, Chaqa, StressedLines

Jamie also has high content, but low memorability but that feels weird to me because I normally have a pretty strong read on Jamie. peter has seemed more interested in timing of lists and acronym arguments than analyzing the game, snowy is all fluff but that's pretty typical from what I remember from snowy. Then we have three reedeers in reedeer, Chaqa and StressedLines.

Slight Scum: bozo, ezio, Telamor

Mostly just because I expect more from these two. As noted, bozo could easily be hiding behind his standard "I always find rdr scummy" bit, and Ezio the "no-lynch" bit. I don't want to lynch either of these today as we get no information from their flips. Telamor is weird. Only post is sheeping Jamie onto TrP when Jamie just voted TrP with his first post. Again, wouldn't give much info, but one to keep an eye on.


Scum: Ike, xorxes

Two town as scum, two town and one unknown as slight scum. Scum Dargo as a Strong town. Chaga as null. I tend do believe there is at least one scum on the Slight townreads (DrCJG, Yav or Prado)

Voted Ike and stayed on it even with the claim.

N1: Only one post, where he tries to shade Teacher and Demon and push Jamiet to his town reads. Doesn´t look that great for Jamiet.

Reading through, Jamie's EoD seems natural to me. I'd probably move him into my townleans. xorxes is still a question mark to me. He seemed pretty uninvolved with EoD. Voted for bozo but only after expressing apathy for all three wagons and didn't really push for a counter to the three. ghug seemed like natural ghug to me. If he was scum, I think Ike would have been further ahead before his PR claim though. He was pushing the lynch pretty hard.

I've gotta run now though. If I don't survive, follow up with teacher, RHK, and xorxes.

D2:
Nothing really stood out to me other then the fact he interacted/questioned mostly with townies. At EOD he jumped on Stressed wagon telline he don't like either Jamiet and Snowy wagons.

N2: Defended the idea that both Snowy and Jamiet were town, but later hedgeg a lot on Snowy being scum. Then wrote this read list with Snowy as the second most scum:

Playing mafia on weekends, especially holiday weekends where I also have to work, sucks.

Haven't had time to do an in depth EoD analysis. teacher brings up some good points in his last post. I was townreading Jamie and a townlean on Snowy, but a scum save is a possibility for how that wagon happened so quickly. Admittedly, I didn't have great reason for voting Stressed in particular, I just saw it as an alternative to Jamie and Snowy who I thought were probably both town.

Heading in to work again in 10 mins so sorry for the brevity.

Town to scum:

teacher
Balki
darg
Jamie
yavuzovic
​ rdrivera
DrCJG
Ezio
Telamor
ghug
RHK
​ TrPrado
snowy
peterlund

I left off bo and Foxy until we get more info. Very little from either previous slot. I left off Ike because I still feel like there's no way we should lynch him. I keep going back and forth about whether I believe him or not.

Didn´t include both Bo and Fox.

D3: He was more active D3, but his questions and comments were either useless or obvious most of the time.
Interesting sequence of posts

Slight townread on rdrivera. Seems to be interpreting the game pretty open-mindedly in a way I think would be tough to manufacture. As past games prove though, I'm awful at reading rdr. I still have a good feeling about him this game though. The only real flags I have are his outrage posts after both lynches.

I townread Balki. I think Balki enjoys playing more as scum than he does as town tbh. When Balki was scum, he was engaging in much more detailed cases and generating cases against people. I feel like he's sitting back a little more in this one and reading other people's interactions.

Slight scum on Foxy but nothing I'm too sure of. I really didn't like his comment about trying to spread out the votes on wagons. I feel like it's too easy for scum to control the lynch that way.

I liked bo's entry post analyzing the EoD wagons and his response to teacher, but he's pretty much disappeared after that. Bo can be a lurker scum, but he tends to explain his absences. I'd guess town on bo.

thamrick
Day-3 03:52
page 73
↑Jamiet99uk: "What then? Do you want me to comment on what I think the optimal scum strategy would be? I'm not inclined to offer guida..."
No. I want to know how likely you think it is that scum would fake-claim a RB. How do you think that turns out in the end for them? This has happened in literally every game I've played in where there's a RB. People always discuss the possibility that a RB was fake-claimed, but I don't know if I've ever actually seen one be fake-claimed.


thamrick
Day-3 03:41
page 73
↑RagingIke297: "So your scum team is Fox and who else?"
you, peter, trprado, snowy, ezio would be my best guess. Very uncertain on that last spot and could substitute in Foxy, yav, Telamor, bo, DrCJG.

He first have a slight scum read on Fox, but didn´t include him on his scumteam when questioned by Ike. I find this pretty odd. Scumteam: Ike, Peter, Prado, Snowy and Ezio. Would he include one or two scum on it or list only town?

Then he voted on Bo when it´s obvious bo won´t be lynched, then voted on Snowy (would he buss two scum mates in a row)?). Ended the day on Telamor in the last minute.

N3: Interesting anser to me. Defended Bo even scumreading him. Would he also town read scum Snowy?

↑rdrivera2005: "Well, some considerations about last EOD:

I think now that Snowy is town. His reactions at EOD were really hard to fake..."
That would be a fair point, except I'm not trying to lynch snowy. I'm pretty sure he's town. You like to criticize EoD results and actions, but you've got a pretty convenient habit of always being busy (driving, at the beach, etc) during EoDs.

I agree with you about Ike and Balki. The uncertainty around Ike is causing far more confusion than it's worth. Balki's reaction to the EoD result was off. But why is yav's vote "as town as it can be?"

I'm still pretty convinced bo is scum, but your reason is garbage. Bo is always sure of himself in an arrogant and condescending way. What else is giving you bad vibes about him?

D4: He interacted a lot with me, I suspect trying to cast some shade or buddy me considering I was voting him. But then he made a really interesting post:

↑rdrivera2005: "Yes, me and Bozo have scumread each other in some games, sometimes it was right (he was scum or I was scum) and sometime..."
Sorry for the delay. Like I said, work sucks for my mafia playing.

I disagree. Your responses definitely help me see how you were and are interpreting the game.

At first I didn't really think much about bozo. I noted his vote for you with his reasoning being that he always scumreads you. It stood out to me when reading it so I thought it was a decent place to drop my vote. When bozo came back online with ~1.5hrs til EoD, I had become pretty convinced that Ike was scum. Bozo seemed to be looking better but I thought he still could be scum. I was honestly fine with both wagons at EoD.

As for where the scum likely were:

if Ike is town:
probably pretty spread out. They would have known that both wagons were safe. They would have been working hard to shape EoD to be TvT as well. They would have at least considered that Ike's PR claim was real. If they were on Ike already, okay they could ride it out and hope he hangs, but with still 4 mins to go when Ike claimed, it was unlikely that he'd be the lynch. Switching to bozo seems like it would be the right play as scum since they could easily justify their vote later. However, it's possible they'd stick it out on Ike as well.

In that scenario, I think the breakdown would be something like:

0-2 on Ike (me/Balki/you)
0-1 in the group that switched to Ike after the claim (reedeer(Foxy)/Jamie/peter)
1-2 already on bozo (DrCJG/snowy/darg)
1-3 on a different wagon (Chaqa(bo)/TrPrado/yav/Ezio/RHK)


if Ike is scum:
probably more consolidated. He was likely being bussed by at least 1 teammate and possibly 2. Again, his claim likely gave good cover to move off. It's possible that a teammate would stay to avoid being suspected, but I still think the play would be to move. With a scum on the block, they definitely would have been working hard to find a counterwagon. Breakdown is probably:

1- Ike
0-1 still on Ike
0-2 switching
1-2 already on bozo
1-2 on a different wagon


My best guess at the scumteam would be Ike/Balki/peter/bo/DrCJG

I tend to think that scum doesn´t fake this kind of analisys, just distort to frame a town instead of scum or to look good when a scum flips. Let´s look closely at his Ike´s not scum option:
0-2 on Ike (me/Balki/you) - It was 1 - him
0-1 in the group that switched to Ike after the claim (reedeer(Foxy)/Jamie/peter) - Well Peter isn't, really likely one of Fox or Jamiet is scum after all
1-2 already on bozo (DrCJG/snowy/darg) - 1 at least - Darg
1-3 on a different wagon (Chaqa(bo)/TrPrado/yav/Ezio/RHK) - One at least - Bo

So, this analysys make we strongly believe we have one scum between Fox and Jamiet.

Looking his scum team we have 3 town, one scum and DrCJG. Would he put two scum on it?

Then Thamrick make a strong attack on Balki, indirectly defending Fox and anchored on Balki. Considering the way he indirectly defended Bo in his interaction with me before, I think he is probably defending his scum buddy Fox.


N4-D5-N5- Nothing worth mentioning

D6-Start the day townreading Snowy and shading Ezio.

Make a vote analysis of D1 (that we know is town/town) and shades Snowy and me.


N6 - Defended Yav as towm. I know it´s WIFOM, but I don´t think a scum Thamrick that knows he is going to be lynched will defend a scum mate at this point.

D7 - He started trying to counter Ezio, but kinda resigned later. Nothing to read from this I guess


I also have done some vote analysis, considering Tham votes and the other scum we know:

D1: Town x Town - Tham voted Ike and Dargo voted Bozo, Chaga was on Ghug. We can´t get much from it, scum might be in any wagon.

D2: Town x Snowy x Jamiet - Tham voted Stressed, Dargo voted Snowy and Chaga didn´t vote. Here I still doesnt see scum trying to save Snowy. Dargo sitted on Snowy wagon and Thamrick only jumped on Streessed after towns Telamor and Balki make him a viable wagon. Considering Jamiet was a wagon that had at least 3 towns (Peter, me and Ghug) the only way for scum to try to get another counter wagon to a scum Snowy is if Jamiet is also scum or if there already scum on Jamiet wagon (TrPrado and Snowy). So, if I am wrong and Snowy somehow flips scum take a close look on TrPrado.

D3: Town x Snowy x Tham (scum). This in an interesting day. We ended the day with Telamor x Snowy, but at some point, with 4 hours to EOD, we have Thamrick with 4 votes (rdr, balki, fox and bo), two towns, one scum and one unkown. At this point Tham was the top wagon. Then two interesting moves: Prado voted Telamor with a weird reasoning and Fox voted Snowy with an absolutely shitty and hedgy reasoning. Those moves made Tham a secondary wagon and set the lynch between Telamor and Snowy. Later Fox changed to Telamor using his dedgy vote and Thamrick voted Snowy. Dargo was sitting on Telamor the whole day and Bo after busing Tham voted Telamor in the last minute. Looking the movement to save Thamrick (scum will take any sacrifice to protect his Hooker) I think either Prado or Fox have to be scum. So, again if Snowy if scum I think Prado could be his scum mate. If Snowy is town as I think, Fox is likely scum.

D4: Town x Ezio x scum x snowy. Here again Thamrick was a wagon with 3 votes (me, Balki and Ezio) and this time he was viable until EOD (with 4 minutes to go it was 4-4-3). Here the deciding votes to make it mostly Ezio x Balki were DrCJ with a hedgy vote on Ezio (we should look at him carefeully, but considering both Dargo and Bo were already on Ezio I still think he is town), our cop Peter that made a jump on Balki and Snowy with a vote on Balki. I honestly think it was town x town and scum were happy with any wagon that weren't Thamrick.

D5 and D6 aren´t worth an analysis considering the cop scan.

D7: Low participation and Thamrick was the obvious lynch. I still dislike DrCJ vote on Snowy, implying Thamrick would be scum if Snowy is scum. And Fox vote on Thamrick is also hedgy again. If you think someone is scum, push his lynch not vote with the majority.


I think I might be the nightkill, it's either me or Ezio I think. At this point I tend to agree with Ezio, Fox is the best lynch for tomorrow. If he is not scum we have probably already lost. I think Ezio and Snowy are town. And the last scum is between DrCJ, Jamiet and Prado in this order. Town might need to lynch Yav tomorrow if Tom can't find a sub, but I don´t think he is scum and it will be a pity if the game is decided by a modkill.

[rdrivera2005]

Sorry for the big post, but I tried to put some thought while still alive and I will be on transit again at EON.

[Foxcastle]

Both Bo and Tham swooped in last minute while the forum was lagging to vote for Telamor when it looked like Snowy was going to be in the lead.

Thamrick was already on Snowy, so if it was Town v Town, why would he have felt the need to switch? He didn't give any actual reason (at the time) for switching his vote. Maybe it was Town v Town, and he thought there was a tie—which is possible given the forum lag, since it's not clear what messages/votes he would have seen—and he wanted to make sure one of the townies got lynched. But that doesn't quite work, because I think both Tham and Bo are smart enough that they'd rather have a tie than have their fingerprints all over a town v town lynch. So yeah, it fits that they saved Snowy there.

Tham's scumread of Snowy is also wobbly...
...(p.73, 3:41) In response to Ike's question about who Tham's scumteam would be, "[Foxcastle and] you [Ike], peter, trprado, snowy, ezio would be my best guess."
...(p.74, 3:06) "And a null read on snowy."
...(p.77, 0:50) Votes Snowy "Since it appears no one seems willing to join me on bo"

I haven't read that in context, but why back off from putting him on the scumteam to a null read to riding him out until the last second of EOD?

[Foxcastle]

He first have a slight scum read on Fox, but didn´t include him on his scumteam when questioned by Ike. I find this pretty odd. Scumteam: Ike, Peter, Prado, Snowy and Ezio. Would he include one or two scum on it or list only town?

Ike's question was "So your scum team is Fox and who else?", so yes, I'm on implicitly on that list.

[rdrivera2005]

↑RagingIke297: "So your scum team is Fox and who else?"
you, peter, trprado, snowy, ezio would be my best guess. Very uncertain on that last spot and could substitute in Foxy, yav, Telamor, bo, DrCJG.

No, he listed five people as scum and hedged on five more, including you that was one of his scum reads before and this striked me odd at that moment and again now on re-read.