M62: PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF REVOLUTIONARY MAFIA GAME THREAD!

[Durga]

Bozo has been very quiet tonight.

I think I will be voting for Maniac tomorrow but I have not forgotten about Bozo and how dreadful he is. Don't think I've forgotten you, Bozo. I haven't.

You’ve all decided not to kill me tonight then? Thanks for the heads up, I’ll get an early night knowing I’m not going to wake up dead.

I doubt your team-mates will decide to kill you. You can't be *that* annoying in the QT. Perhaps the Vig will help save us some time and pop you tonight. That'd be okay.

Idk the more he posts the more he actually might be town

[Durga]

Worcej will you stop fucking chuntering about your suburban American life and sporting interests?

It's bad enough having to watch you post about that crap on Facebook.

And here I am liking your hobbies and shit...

Hold up, this isn't mean worcej? Ne saying fingers crossed is evil but this is ok?

[Fluminator]

Bozo has been very quiet tonight.

I think I will be voting for Maniac tomorrow but I have not forgotten about Bozo and how dreadful he is. Don't think I've forgotten you, Bozo. I haven't.

What happened to being angry at Yoyo? I'm actually quite angry at him and I'm weirded out your not mentioning it.

[Fluminator]

There's some strong competing views running and I'd love to see some other thoughts.

Brain was very explicit about sheeping Damo.

Kgray has asserted, especially in this post viewtopic.php?p=196017#p196017 that Damo is outright scum.

We know Brain was town, but his reads also weren't perfect. Where do people sit on Damo?

FLum, seems you have an idea of kgray's alignment based on your role post. Do you agree with kgray that damo is scum?

I've now scumread damo when he was town and townread damo when he was scum so I've never been great at reading him. He's definitely not playing the town game I'm familiar with and doing things I'm not used to.
I also think it was suspicious he stayed off the important wagons day 1. I agree with kgray that damo is scummy. I really need to reread him and check out his scum game more closely.

[Fluminator]

I heavily scumread HB until he obvtowned.

Can you explain the obvtown? I want to see it too. Help me see it.

After seeing brainbomb's flip, do you still see HB as hard town?

His notes being fake and hoping someone would notice that post and ask him is a little too 4D chess for me to think he's scum. It's possible HR nudged me to ask and they're scum partners, but HB's reaction to barely surviving is very town to me and he's not coasting off the notes list like he would were it a long con.

[Fluminator]

@Balki, I really need you to pick it up. There are so many scummy players this game and I'd like to start crossing some off my list.

Well, okay, let's talk about my favorite subject: me! What's my alignment and why? I like to talk about that. Talk about that with me.

I have no idea lol. That's why i wanted you to post more.

[Hamilton Brian]

So it seems like we've got:

Kgray: Damo is scum
Flum: Damo is scummy

Damo: Kgray is scum

Worcej, you said Durga gave a town tell?

[Hamilton Brian]

Continuing from some of the earlier posts as I pull out specifics:

Maniac townreads kgray, Balki, and myself and also HR and ghug.

So Maniac, your scumreads?

HR reads myself, kgray, and Balki as town along with ghug. And ghug is your strongest townread?

HR, who would you like to see as wagons for D3?

[Vecna]

Oh yea, if anyones interested in my current PoE

1. Hellenic Riot
4. Jamie
5. ghug
11. celaph
12. worcej
17. bozotheclown
18. e.m.c^42
22. Yoyoyozo

What did you do to remove Vash, HB (suddenly now) and Balki?

[Vecna]

Oh yea, if anyones interested in my current PoE

1. Hellenic Riot
4. Jamie
5. ghug
11. celaph
12. worcej
17. bozotheclown
18. e.m.c^42
22. Yoyoyozo

What did you do to remove Vash, HB (suddenly now) and Balki?

in fact, how are you possibly townreading Maniac

[Vecna]

From Bonatogether’s long post...

“ T-0:43: ghug switches from maniac to brain, for the reason that if it comes down to it, it's obvious which of the HB/kgray/balki (6/4/4 at the time) trio he'd choose, but he prefered to get brain out. (He hadn't been voting any of the major wagons for at least 30 hours. wack)”

Unless HB/Kgray/Balki are all scum why would scum Ghug try to get a new wagon going here. Surely he’d jump on a town wagon. As I’m town reading HB/Kgray/Balki I now strongly town read Ghug. He is now my strongest town read.

Wow, Maniac, I strongly disagree with this reasoning.

You are assuming so much about the purpose of this vote. And your ghug read is derivative on three! other reads, which you just cannot possibly be so sure about.

Putting the roles of HB, kgray, and Balki to the side, don't you think Scum!ghug might just start up a brainbomb wagon because he is trying to imitate Town!ghug and he feels like that's what Town!ghug would do there?

Considering that brainbomb is town, it would make plenty of sense for Scum!ghug to float that new wagon, regardless of the alignments of HB/kgray/Balki. Scum!ghug is not so predictable that he would necessarily relax and do nothing if he's not too worried about the way the votes are trending. Nor is Scum!ghug so predictable that he would necessarily run off and push a new wagon if he is concerned that one of his scumbuddies is about to be voted out.

It's just not that easy. Right?

Sometimes the game can be easy and we over complicate it.

My reasoning isn’t based on all three lead wagons at the time being town. (HB/Kgray/Balki), it based on at least one of them being town. I happen to town read them all. If I’m wrong then sometimes you just have to say ‘well played,you all fooled me’. But I don’t think I am wrong about all three.

Your own reasoning needs looking at though. You seem to be saying “no one could ever think starting a new wagon 43 minutes out could be considered town play” whilst at the same time your saying “Ghug could be starting that new wagon to appear town”. Both can’t be truly surely?

Maniac, talk to me why you townread me so easily last game, yet apparently are scumreading me this game

[e.m.c^42]

Question - have a scum team ever actually killed one of their own members with a NK?

I certainly had tried with simple NK, but didn't succeed lol

[Vecna]

Hmmmm, then I am not communicating clearly. I certainly do not agree with this statement: “no one could ever think starting a new wagon 43 minutes out could be considered town play.”

How did I imply that?

In effect I said “starting a new wagon 43mins out is town play”and you strongly disagreed with me. Therefore you seem to be strongly implying that “no one could consider the move town play”.

I am definitely not saying "nobody would consider that town play." I am saying that you are giving "strong town" reads for something that seems Null to me. That is, something that scum!ghug or scum!HR might do, regardless of the alignments of the three leading wagons at the time.

Man, even if Balki is scum here, im so happy we kept him around to just shut down all the bad reasoning going on lol

[Vecna]

Where'd ya go, little flying dino?

<3

[Chaqa]

Are you streaming again?!

I didn't today, but I did stream a bit yesterday. Likely I won't be playing for a few days as I'm starting up a brand new D&D campaign on Wednesday that I need to finish preparing for.

Nice way to pre-load your excuses for continuing to take part in this game as little as possible.

I'm confused as to how not playing Among Us relates to mafia?

[Vecna]

kgray, ghug, durga, Jamie and HB have all voted to kill BOTH town ND and town brain. HB's brain vote is excusable due to self-preservation but as for the other four....they can't all be town can they?

Tomorrow I think we should contain our votes to these 4 plus Maniac.

You're right damo, it's totally unreasonable that townies who know only their own alignment would vote two townies in a row, so therefore we must be sum....

A probability person like you should know that this makes no sense.

The chances of 4 townies all voting town both days is (19/25)*(17/22)^4=11.9%.

It is therefore quite likely there is at least 1 scum in the four (another way of saying not ALL town). The chance an individual town randomly votes 2 town in a row is about 58.7% so not taking anything else into account any one individual is more likely to be town but collectively the group is very likely to contain AT LEAST ONE SCUM.

Yet again you choose to misconstrue what I say to throw shade at me. You need to detunnel.

You just did the statistical equivalent of circular reasoning.

You calculate the statistical odds of 4 specific TOWNIES doing something. You CANNOT then use those same numbers to reason that they must be scum.

Given your past, I reckon you know damn well that mr Bernoulli is very disappointed with you right now.

[Chaqa]

You're right damo, it's totally unreasonable that townies who know only their own alignment would vote two townies in a row, so therefore we must be sum....

A probability person like you should know that this makes no sense.

The chances of 4 townies all voting town both days is (19/25)*(17/22)^4=11.9%.

It is therefore quite likely there is at least 1 scum in the four (another way of saying not ALL town). The chance an individual town randomly votes 2 town in a row is about 58.7% so not taking anything else into account any one individual is more likely to be town but collectively the group is very likely to contain AT LEAST ONE SCUM.

Yet again you choose to misconstrue what I say to throw shade at me. You need to detunnel.

You just did the statistical equivalent of circular reasoning.

You calculate the statistical odds of 4 specific TOWNIES doing something. You CANNOT then use those same numbers to reason that they must be scum.

Given your past, I reckon you know damn well that mr Bernoulli is very disappointed with you right now.

Maths damo is scum damo

[Vecna]

The chances of 4 townies all voting town both days is (19/25)*(17/22)^4=11.9%.

It is therefore quite likely there is at least 1 scum in the four (another way of saying not ALL town). The chance an individual town randomly votes 2 town in a row is about 58.7% so not taking anything else into account any one individual is more likely to be town but collectively the group is very likely to contain AT LEAST ONE SCUM.

Yet again you choose to misconstrue what I say to throw shade at me. You need to detunnel.

Damo, choose any group of four. Collectively, the group is very likely to contain at least one scum.

That doesn't support your position here. You need to explain why the members of this particular foursome are more likely to flip scum than a random foursome. I don't believe you have made that case persuasively. But I'm listening.

As at yesterday there were 18 town and 5 scum. Randomly pick 4 the chances they are all town is (18*17*16*15)/(23*22*21*20) = 34.6% [1dp]

The chance of 4 townies voting town both days 11.9%.

I think this is a significant enough difference to support my assertion.

oh he even doubles down on it. If Damo is actually town here, he has just proven he has no actual clue about statistics lol

[Vecna]

As at yesterday there were 18 town and 5 scum. Randomly pick 4 the chances they are all town is (18*17*16*15)/(23*22*21*20) = 34.6% [1dp]

The chance of 4 townies voting town both days 11.9%.

I think this is a significant enough difference to support my assertion.

I am trying to follow your logic here.

Let's just talk about a group of 1 to make the math easier, and then when we agree we can apply it to a group of four.

If we have one person who we know voted for town twice in a row, you are saying that we should compare (a) the random chance that any person is town (18/23) to (b) the chance of someone voting town twice in a row, if they were voting randomly (something much lower than 18/23)?

I don't see why we are comparing those things?

(1) votes are not random at all. They are influenced by, among other things, scum who are voting, cajoling, and wagoning with more info than the rest of us, and

(2) I think you need to compare (i) the chance of a townie voting to kill a townie twice in a row, with (ii) the chance of a mafia member voting to kill a townie twice in a row. But you can't really do that objectively with statistics. It isn't random. There are reasons to think that a mafia player would want to vote to kill a townie on a leading wagon (to kill townies), and there are competing reasons why a mafia player would not want to vote to kill a townie on a leading wagon (exposure, suspicion).

So, I am not sure if it is empirically true that a given player in a mafia game who voted on the leading wagon to daykill a townie twice in a row is more likely to be a mafia member than any random player, or less likely to be a mafia member. That is a complicated question that can't be answered with simple math.

Its done easily enough with conditional statistics or bernouilli. He clearly wasnt interested in a fair argument

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Balki, I really need you to pick it up. There are so many scummy players this game and I'd like to start crossing some off my list.

Well, okay, let's talk about my favorite subject: me! What's my alignment and why? I like to talk about that. Talk about that with me.

I have no idea lol. That's why i wanted you to post more.

Okay. Talk about the evidence of my alignment (either way) that you've seen so far. Or talk about the stuff that you are grappling with and unsure how to sort.