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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:09 am
by Nanook
ghug wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:07 am
Nanook wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:57 am
Unless all six scum did not read the setup I don’t think it’s particularly meaningful that damo didn’t die last night tbh
Lol 6
I think not killing damo was clearly suboptimal. Understanding the setup is easier than determining the smartest plays.
Sure, broadly agree
I think in this case understanding the setup probably gets you 99% of the way to understanding the optimal kill tho, yeah?
Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:11 am
by Nanook
What I’m getting at is that I think it’s more likely scum consciously decided to make a suboptimal kill than it is nobody on their team realized damo was the optimal kill
Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:11 am
by BunnyGo
ghug wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:07 am
Nanook wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:57 am
Unless all six scum did not read the setup I don’t think it’s particularly meaningful that damo didn’t die last night tbh
Lol 6
I think not killing damo was clearly suboptimal. Understanding the setup is easier than determining the smartest plays.
C'mon. "Kill non-VTs" is pretty f***ing clear to do on N1.
Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:12 am
by Nanook
Oh that applies to N2
N1 I don’t actually think Damo was the optimal kill, so
Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:12 am
by BunnyGo
Nanook wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:11 am
What I’m getting at is that I think it’s more likely scum consciously decided to make a suboptimal kill than it is nobody on their team realized damo was the optimal kill
You think they're getting greedy and risking having Damo as a townclear in exchange for a chance of a miskill on another day?
Did anyone start by pushing damo on day 2?
Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:13 am
by BunnyGo
Nanook wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:12 am
Oh that applies to N2
N1 I don’t actually think Damo was the optimal kill, so
Why not?
Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:15 am
by BunnyGo
BunnyGo wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:12 am
Nanook wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:11 am
What I’m getting at is that I think it’s more likely scum consciously decided to make a suboptimal kill than it is nobody on their team realized damo was the optimal kill
You think they're getting greedy and risking having Damo as a townclear in exchange for a chance of a miskill on another day?
Did anyone start by pushing damo on day 2?
HR opened with it right away.
Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:16 am
by Nanook
Um...I guess it’s actually probably fine to just say at this point it’s fairly obvious
If scum believed that damo slipped not-VT it was much more likely he was a mason than chosen one I think, so if I were mafia I’d probably have killed outside him too. Especially given the amount of VT softs during the day, as I recall there were like 3 or so?
Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:16 am
by BunnyGo
BunnyGo wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:15 am
BunnyGo wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:12 am
Nanook wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:11 am
What I’m getting at is that I think it’s more likely scum consciously decided to make a suboptimal kill than it is nobody on their team realized damo was the optimal kill
You think they're getting greedy and risking having Damo as a townclear in exchange for a chance of a miskill on another day?
Did anyone start by pushing damo on day 2?
HR opened with it right away.
Which is amusing, because he called him out for "voting EMC" and yet never voted damo the previous day.
What am I missing there?
Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:18 am
by BunnyGo
Nanook wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:16 am
Um...I guess it’s actually probably fine to just say at this point it’s fairly obvious
If scum believed that damo slipped not-VT it was much more likely he was a mason than chosen one I think, so if I were mafia I’d probably have killed outside him too. Especially given the amount of VT softs during the day, as I recall there were like 3 or so?
Mason's aren't valid targets? I guess their extra oracle and bodyguard are all to protect Neo.
hmm...was there no chance Damo was Neo and slipped up?
Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:20 am
by Nanook
BunnyGo wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:18 am
Nanook wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:16 am
Um...I guess it’s actually probably fine to just say at this point it’s fairly obvious
If scum believed that damo slipped not-VT it was much more likely he was a mason than chosen one I think, so if I were mafia I’d probably have killed outside him too. Especially given the amount of VT softs during the day, as I recall there were like 3 or so?
Mason's aren't valid targets? I guess their extra oracle and bodyguard are all to protect Neo.
hmm...was there no chance Damo was Neo and slipped up?
I mean I wouldn’t be hunting masons N1, no
And sure it’s possible, and caveat that hindsight is 20/20, but I think less likely given no claim and the tom wagon springing up potentially in part to protect him (I don’t remember if flash wagon came about same way or not tbh)
Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:20 am
by goldfinger0303
Oh, and Bunny as a reward for noticing me I'll go back to ##vote emc
I still think after last night's Q&A session emc is scum, but after the flips this morning, I think executing emc today will lead us to scum no matter what.
Option A) emc is scum -> Bunny is scum, HR is probably scum
Option B) emc is Town -> HR is town, Bunny is Town, Theflyingboat is scum
I got to option B by looking at EOD wagons. There were 4 lone wagons at EOD. HR, Chaqa, worcej, and Theflyingboat. Based on games I've played, it's pretty sure one of them is scum. Two we know now were town. HR moved at the last second. I don't think scum would purposely move to lynch a town at the last minute and expose themselves, unless it were to save a scum buddy. Perhaps emc was a super bad role to lose D1, like Encryptor or Security Agent. Worth giving scum reads to goons to save them. I just don't see any other reason why at the last second scum would get off a perfectly safe, explainable vote.
So if emc flips town, I think we have a good two strong town reads, and a very likely scum.
If emc flips scum (which is far more likely imo) we will probably get one or two extra along with it.
The only potential hole in this hypothesis is Temasek.... unfortunately though it's a big hole.
Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:22 am
by BunnyGo
goldfinger0303 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:20 am
Oh, and Bunny as a reward for noticing me I'll go back to ##vote emc
I still think after last night's Q&A session emc is scum, but after the flips this morning, I think executing emc today will lead us to scum no matter what.
Option A) emc is scum -> Bunny is scum, HR is probably scum
Option B) emc is Town -> HR is town, Bunny is Town, Theflyingboat is scum
I got to option B by looking at EOD wagons. There were 4 lone wagons at EOD. HR, Chaqa, worcej, and Theflyingboat. Based on games I've played, it's pretty sure one of them is scum. Two we know now were town. HR moved at the last second. I don't think scum would purposely move to lynch a town at the last minute and expose themselves, unless it were to save a scum buddy. Perhaps emc was a super bad role to lose D1, like Encryptor or Security Agent. Worth giving scum reads to goons to save them. I just don't see any other reason why at the last second scum would get off a perfectly safe, explainable vote.
So if emc flips town, I think we have a good two strong town reads, and a very likely scum.
If emc flips scum (which is far more likely imo) we will probably get one or two extra along with it.
The only potential hole in this hypothesis is Temasek.... unfortunately though it's a big hole.
Thank you for doing some analysis! I see and appreciate that.
Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:22 am
by Temasek22
Eh, we've all been there Nanook. Honestly I gave barely any reads in my first couple games no matter I was town or scum as I knew none of the meta.
Speaking of Meta, Bunny gives off a different vibe this time than our earlier games. But his wording doesn't really change when he is scum either so take that with a grain of salt.
Is damo mech cleared (or confirmed scum) by the way? I mean my read on him is leaning town but scum could have some crazy plan or something.
Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:24 am
by Nanook
I don’t really get the EMC scumreads tbh, like I got D1 where the “he just has to die either way” votes were from, but like...since then he’s been...fine, I think? Not like supertownie or whatever, but fine.
Is it just not wanting to believe D1 was all town wagons?
Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:25 am
by BunnyGo
Temasek22 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:22 am
Eh, we've all been there Nanook. Honestly I gave barely any reads in my first couple games no matter I was town or scum as I knew none of the meta.
Speaking of Meta, Bunny gives off a different vibe this time than our earlier games. But his wording doesn't really change when he is scum either so take that with a grain of salt.
Is damo mech cleared (or confirmed scum) by the way? I mean my read on him is leaning town but scum could have some crazy plan or something.
scum would have to have crazy plan while ahead. It's not 100% mech cleared. But the WIFOM for scum to do something dumb like this...
In addition, if the virus is cooperating with NEB, then the only way Damo is scum and still alive is if he's been redpilled somehow on N1.
So....pretty close to mech cleared.
Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:25 am
by Nanook
I’m gonna pass out now I’ll vanity search my name in the morning if you have questions or whatever
Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:26 am
by goldfinger0303
Oh my God I've summoned Temasek
Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:26 am
by Temasek22
goldfinger0303 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:20 am
(Snip)
The only potential hole in this hypothesis is Temasek.... unfortunately though it's a big hole.
I like your analysis re. emc though. His flip seems to be able to give us the most info. ##vote emc
Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:29 am
by BunnyGo
Actually, anyone with half a brain knows Damo wasn't redpilled on N1. So yeah...only way he's scum is:
1) Scum decided on ballsy play while way ahead
2) Virus has decided to not cooperate with NEB to kill scum