Re: Mafia 57 Matrix
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:54 am
##VOTE NANOOK
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https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=2795
1. Maybe, most likely not! Tbh it looks like a bunch of town wagons to me so...data is much less useful. I *could* assume bunny is scum, but like...I just kinda don’t think they are? So yeah. Probably not going to.Hellenic Riot wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:51 am1. Does that mean you can stop being lazy and actually give it, even though it's much easier now given how many alignments we now know.Nanook wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:44 am1. I got lazyHellenic Riot wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:08 am
Interesting, I certainly don't recall that game but I do like easy townreads.
Slightly strange turn of events, though I don't think it's a huge surprise scum didn't kill damo. It does shine D1 into a different light however, so there's some read adjusting to do there. The fact that almost all the EoD1 wagons were probably on town with a probable maximum of one scum wagon means that there's a pretty good chance a lot of the scum were not involved in the EoD votechanging bonanza.
On the flipside, neither of my two main scumreads are dead, and both are doing the barest of minimums. I'm quite down with a ##vote Nanook here, as there's some very notable inconsistencies there now:
Inconsistency #1: The early vote to 'break the tie' and ensuing statement about how easy it is to get reads off people's reactions to such an event... But there has never been a single Nanook attempt to actually read into the EoD1 and the fact that a tie very nearly happened. If it's such a good source of reads, where are they? It's not like you've not been prodded about exactly this analysis enough times, either.
Inconsistency #2: Following on from that, Nanook develops a strong scumread on DemonRHK out of nowhere at the start of D2 on the justification that Nanook 'hated their play D1'. DemonRHK was not involved in all the vote-flopping D1, and was only minimally around at all at EoD. Not once D1 did Nanook suggest they hated DemonRHK's play - Or indeed so much as place a single thought about it at the time. Where's the sudden hate come from?
Inconsistency #3: At the start of D2, Nanook posts that they think posting at night is bad for town so they won't be doing it as their explanation for their absence N1. They then spend the entirety of N2 shitting on DemonRHK and then shitting again on anyone who hadn't fully understood the setup. Aside from how bitterposts sniping at town is just scum coast strategy 101, there's also the fact that Nanook himself felt the need to query Damo's initial 100% vote on Demon - guess reading comprehension issues only apply to other people
As for my other reads: Tom's still very town, goldie & Bunny also look quite town, and I don't really think Hamilton Brian was forcing that confusion last night so I'm leaning town on him too. Bismarck's still scum, and there's also probably at least one scum in the people doing literally nothing (Temasek, TFB, & therul, though the latter is a different kind of nothing). And I suspect that if there was a scum-driven wagon D1 it was the damo wagon, and therefore rdrivera is also someone to keep an eye on.
2. I reread him over night, didn’t/don’t talk about reads at night for previously discussed reasons
3a. Shitting on bad play isn’t making a read
3b. I also almost immediately figured It out on my own without needing someone to hold my hand through it
2. Didn't reread over the EoD though?
3. A big ongoing rant is very different to deliberately not posting no matter how you try and spin it
What are you talking about? I most certainly did not.Tom Bombadil wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:54 amYou implied it.Nanook wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:52 amUhTom Bombadil wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:51 am
HRs made several reads - it’s weird that you are pushing the narrative that he is shitting on bad play and not making reads.
I didn’t say that...?
Knowingly is a fine question but here's what I see.BunnyGo wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:34 amWho do you think knowingly saved him?
No, I wasn't. This EOD isn't great for me.BunnyGo wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:49 amAlready asked and answered.
Were you around EOD1?
I could link you to games I guess lolol
I don't think there was any question that after Damo outed then Demon had to be lynched, so yes, I would have voted him. The fact Damo outed at all was pretty dire play though.Hamilton Brian wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:07 amKnowingly is a fine question but here's what I see.
That vote on EMC was a mess all day. Several people moving off and on. However, EMC didn't lead the vote until about 4 minutes remaining when it was 5EMC, 5Damos, 3Flash, and 3Bunny. Goldfinger's vote made it the 5th for EMC.
Ghug went from Damos to Summit. So 5, 4, 3, 3. EMC still leads.
HR casts for Flash, giving up on the Bismarck vote. EMC is still in the lead.
Bunny moves from EMC to Flash, sealing the elimination.
I hate that I keep looking at that and thinking within it Goldfinger and Bunny are most suspect. The most obvious move to "save" would be Bunny.
The distillations of information from Hellenic Riot are well-communicated. I feel like they are definitely town. @HR, you missed casting a vote on Day 2. Would have you been comfortable, given the information you were processing, casting a vote for Demon? If not, where might that vote have gone?
@EMC, FLyingBoat, and Tom...apologies if you've covered it already, but I don't remember reading why you missed the vote. Who would your vote have been cast for, and why?
I know this is trying to correlate Day 1 and Day 2 votes but I want to get it through in writing before I forget.
I don't know if Nanook is trying to be provocative or attempting a self-elimination.
Literally none of what I said overnight is relevant to reads tho. My point isn’t “every single night post is bad,” it’s “me sharing reads at night is a net negative.” Maybe I said it poorly? Idk.Hellenic Riot wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:26 amIf you don't see where the fundamental disconnect is between "Nightposting is a net negative for town so I won't do it" and spending a night going "What the fuck you're all morons, why did RHK play like that, why can none of you read fuck fuck fuckity fuck" then I don't know what to say.
Convenient then that damo being town is the only actual townread you've given all game (aside from ghug being probable town when rdrivera pushed you on it, and which you instantly hedged on in the very same post).Nanook wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:28 amLiterally none of what I said overnight is relevant to reads tho. My point isn’t “every single night post is bad,” it’s “me sharing reads at night is a net negative.” Maybe I said it poorly? Idk.Hellenic Riot wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:26 amIf you don't see where the fundamental disconnect is between "Nightposting is a net negative for town so I won't do it" and spending a night going "What the fuck you're all morons, why did RHK play like that, why can none of you read fuck fuck fuckity fuck" then I don't know what to say.
Would you care to explain why?
Hellenic Riot wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:23 amI don't think there was any question that after Damo outed then Demon had to be LANGUAGE, so yes, I would have voted him. The fact Damo outed at all was pretty dire play though.Hamilton Brian wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:07 amKnowingly is a fine question but here's what I see.
That vote on EMC was a mess all day. Several people moving off and on. However, EMC didn't lead the vote until about 4 minutes remaining when it was 5EMC, 5Damos, 3Flash, and 3Bunny. Goldfinger's vote made it the 5th for EMC.
Ghug went from Damos to Summit. So 5, 4, 3, 3. EMC still leads.
HR casts for Flash, giving up on the Bismarck vote. EMC is still in the lead.
Bunny moves from EMC to Flash, sealing the elimination.
I hate that I keep looking at that and thinking within it Goldfinger and Bunny are most suspect. The most obvious move to "save" would be Bunny.
The distillations of information from Hellenic Riot are well-communicated. I feel like they are definitely town. @HR, you missed casting a vote on Day 2. Would have you been comfortable, given the information you were processing, casting a vote for Demon? If not, where might that vote have gone?
@EMC, FLyingBoat, and Tom...apologies if you've covered it already, but I don't remember reading why you missed the vote. Who would your vote have been cast for, and why?
I know this is trying to correlate Day 1 and Day 2 votes but I want to get it through in writing before I forget.
I don't know if Nanook is trying to be provocative or attempting a self-elimination.
Damo’s mechanically town me saying that has no effectHellenic Riot wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:33 amConvenient then that damo being town is the only actual townread you've given all game (aside from ghug being probable town when rdrivera pushed you on it, and which you instantly hedged on in the very same post).Nanook wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:28 amLiterally none of what I said overnight is relevant to reads tho. My point isn’t “every single night post is bad,” it’s “me sharing reads at night is a net negative.” Maybe I said it poorly? Idk.Hellenic Riot wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:26 amIf you don't see where the fundamental disconnect is between "Nightposting is a net negative for town so I won't do it" and spending a night going "What the fuck you're all morons, why did RHK play like that, why can none of you read fuck fuck fuckity fuck" then I don't know what to say.
Oh, and you gave it last night.
You’re not far off tbhHellenic Riot wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:37 amIndeed by the look of your play it would appear that you believe you sharing reads at all is a net negative, day or night.