Mafia 57 Matrix

[ghug]

Rereading the shortened day 2 with the benefit of hindsight:

Is prevailing meta still to roleblock and kill the same person early on? What should we make of worcej being roleblocked?

Nanook is on board the RHK lynch before the claim.

I don't like this from bunny:

##vote demon and when it is not clear the NEB can have the virus get damo.

He seems to a) not understand the claim, b) believe RHK is town, and c) follow damo anyway

Jamie seems to get the claim but not consider the possibility of what actually happened:

Sorry, DemonRHK, but unless Damo is lying, you're caught - and if you flip town, we know that Damo is lying and we will lynch him tomorrow.

This could be a sloppy attempt to try to set up damo, but I think it's likelier to be town missing a possibility mafia would know to be the case.

Rivera voted and then reread the setup and "had doubts". Understanding is scum-indicative but it was also pretty obvious, and the developing understanding is an easily fakeable point in his favor, so probably a wash.

Here RHK comes in and is stupid, which makes him look even more like scum.

Bo seems pretty confident that RHK is scum and we need to hammer. A few town points.

Oh but then he says this, which eh

I'm not expressing any certainty lol. RHK has to flip to grant us any honest assessment at all about what's going on. Someone claims they have information incriminating someone, you lynch and ask questions afterwards. This is especially important with mafia having a day chat. If RHK is mafia (there is obviously a possibility he isn't, but that doesn't change anything), I don't want them to have time to figure out something they can do to save him. This is basic stuff.

Fox doesn't think we should be so certain. @Fox, did you understand the substance of the claim but take issue with its certainty, or did you not get what was going on at all?

Temosek comes in clueless.

Fox jumps on the wagon anyway.

Worcej votes, offers no analysis. Later says it's likely damo is right, there's no point in hammering.

Gold calls the GM and says demon's salt is very tasty. Kinda tells me he actually believed there was gonna be a scum flip, so that's cool (good work, RHK). Everything else about his play is so scummy, but I think I'm gonna drop him for now.

Chaqa (after hammering, right before flip):

Hey, a almost certain scum lynch where I can continue to be the worst-sub-ever is a win for me.

Also Chaqa (right after flip):

I'm thoroughly confused. I thought Damo had a guilty scan on RHK or something?

The first comment betrays more knowledge than the second. Chaqa is scum. I'd also wager that the "a almost" is a result of adding "almost" to "a certain" to seem less confident and forgetting to change the article, but I don't really expect anyone else to buy that part.


To summarize: gold and Jamie look good, bo looks OK, Fox looks sketch, Chaqa is scum

[ghug]

Oh and Bunny looks bad too, though I think I still townread in aggregate thanks to that juicy scum count slip.

[Tom Bombadil]

With 3rd party killing, I think it is less likely scum doubles up kill and roleblock, so I tend to townread worcej for now.

[Tom Bombadil]

I don't really see how Chaqa's first post betrays more knowledge?

[ghug]

I don't really see how Chaqa's first post betrays more knowledge?

"almost certain" tells me he understands what's going on.

"or something" tells me he doesn't.

[BunnyGo]

My view is that a cop claim by someone that isn't mafia on someone mafia know to be town allows them to throw their vote on the target of the investigation with impunity. The next day when it turns out it was a townie they can just play dumb and say they trusted the cop. If I had to guess 2-4 were on that wagon. I think at least one would have stayed off probably two. My guess is they would be two people who stuck to other wagons we believe to be town while posting actively after Damo's post, those who posted afterwards and didn't vote, and then those who were asleep and woke up lucky. Maybe my view of a mafia's strat here is overly simplistic but I think a mafia player would happily leap on a bad Neb wagon assuming there would be no repercussions and only great results.

You're aware there's no cop, right?

Referring to the Neb Oracle as the cop for simplicity sake

You’re aware there’s no cop, right?

[goldfinger0303]

With 3rd party killing, I think it is less likely scum doubles up kill and roleblock, so I tend to townread worcej for now.

Going forward with the JOAT dead and other PRs useless, I would tend to agree with you there. N1 though, I'm less sure. Slight town lean, but I wouldn't say it will be as definitive as RB claims going forward.

[Tom Bombadil]

You're aware there's no cop, right?

Referring to the Neb Oracle as the cop for simplicity sake

You’re aware there’s no cop, right?

What is the point of this post Bunny? What are you trying to achieve with this?

[worcej]

[snip...]
Worcej votes, offers no analysis. Later says it's likely damo is right, there's no point in hammering.
[snip...]

I actually said there was no point in not hammering and that damo had a chance to be right.

The reason for no analysis is because I knew based on the claim by damo that he either found Cypher or the Miller - which with damo exposing himself means it needed to be addressed.

There was no point trying to publicly discuss damo's claim or why we had to lynch demon because all it would do is help the dumb ones who cannot take the time to read the setup.

FWIW - scum points for ghug for really butchering what I actually said. This could easily be a lazy scum wall post.

[ghug]

With 3rd party killing, I think it is less likely scum doubles up kill and roleblock, so I tend to townread worcej for now.

Going forward with the JOAT dead and other PRs useless, I would tend to agree with you there. N1 though, I'm less sure. Slight town lean, but I wouldn't say it will be as definitive as RB claims going forward.

Why does the JOAT being dead make it more likely they'll use the roleblock on someone separate?

[worcej]

With 3rd party killing, I think it is less likely scum doubles up kill and roleblock, so I tend to townread worcej for now.

Especially with no real save roles in play.

I think there is merit in suspecting me as scum because scum claiming RB to get a clear is definitely possible, however this is not the case in this instance because I am town.

[BunnyGo]

Referring to the Neb Oracle as the cop for simplicity sake

You’re aware there’s no cop, right?

What is the point of this post Bunny? What are you trying to achieve with this?

Pointing out he hasn't read the rules carefully. Not sure if it's actually a townslip or a faked one.

[ghug]

With 3rd party killing, I think it is less likely scum doubles up kill and roleblock, so I tend to townread worcej for now.

Especially with no real save roles in play.

I think there is merit in suspecting me as scum because scum claiming RB to get a clear is definitely possible, however this is not the case in this instance because I am town.

Good point. I hadn't considered that.

[ghug]

You’re aware there’s no cop, right?

What is the point of this post Bunny? What are you trying to achieve with this?

Pointing out he hasn't read the rules carefully. Not sure if it's actually a townslip or a faked one.

I don't follow. You just repeated my question, which he had already answered adequately.

[Tom Bombadil]

With 3rd party killing, I think it is less likely scum doubles up kill and roleblock, so I tend to townread worcej for now.

Especially with no real save roles in play.

I think there is merit in suspecting me as scum because scum claiming RB to get a clear is definitely possible, however this is not the case in this instance because I am town.

Good point. I hadn't considered that.

You hadn't considered scum could fake claim RB?

[Tom Bombadil]

yeah I feel pretty good about Bunny being scum

[BunnyGo]

What is the point of this post Bunny? What are you trying to achieve with this?

Pointing out he hasn't read the rules carefully. Not sure if it's actually a townslip or a faked one.

I don't follow. You just repeated my question, which he had already answered adequately.

You too? This is a sort of blatant fake townslip now.

THERE IS NO COP SCAN OF ANY KIND ANYMORE!

The oracle is USELESS!! COMPLETELY USELESS!!

[worcej]

yeah I feel pretty good about Bunny being scum

Who would you paint as scum with him?

[ghug]

Especially with no real save roles in play.

I think there is merit in suspecting me as scum because scum claiming RB to get a clear is definitely possible, however this is not the case in this instance because I am town.

Good point. I hadn't considered that.

You hadn't considered scum could fake claim RB?

Is joke.

[Tom Bombadil]

How did you just go from it maybe being a townslip or a fake townslip, to now saying its a fake townslip in the span of mintues.