M1011 - Revenge of the Space Mutants - Game Thread

[kgray]

If damo is the JOAT, the mafia were about to see the JOAT lynched and would be down 5-2 D4. Chaqa could have taken the chance to save damo there, hoping someone would follow him to BunnyGo.

I think this is likely. Scum!Chaqa would have known the double vote was in play, and that him switching would at least tie the vote. It's certainly possible that Chaqa was hoping for someone to follow him to Bunny.

However, Chaqa's vote called for Tom/bozo/food to make the choice to switch or not. But, unless bozo or food switched their settings to "appear away," neither was online at EOD and Tom, who was around, didn't seem very convinced of my neph/bunny case. Scum!Chaqa probably figured that nobody else would switch to Bunny and he would tie the vote rather than lynch Bunny, so I think a Chaqa/damo/Bunny scumteam makes sense.

Also, since were both likely town, even if Damo is the JOAT scum knew theyd need someone to switch. All the other likely scum candidates were around except bunny.

tom didnt switch
damo was already voting bunny
bunny was not around or at least not stating anything, and him selfvoting wouldve conf-scummed him anyway.
not sure if bozo was around to switch.

Chaqa was the person that was the one that made it happen. If he is town and did an oopsy, why did none of the other scum switch earlier to tie it up, knowing damo was a double voter with it active?

Well I very much doubt Chaqa is town at this point, but if he is and we assume JOAT!damo, then damo's two teammates probably didn't think it was worth the risk to save him and just bussed him instead. The move to damo resulting in a tie is really suspect. Bozo and Tom are both pretty widely townread and I doubt it would be worth it to either of them to draw the attention to themselves. Chaqa, on the other hand, was in a lot of people's scumteams so I think it's a lot more likely that scum!Chaqa would sacrifice himself to save damo than scum!Tom or scum!bozo.

[Chaqa]

There’s no reason I wouldn’t just bus damo to remove suspicion on myself if I were town. I’m a notorious busser, all of this is based on a false assumption that I am scum.

[kgray]

That's a very unfortunate result.

Off the cuff I struggle to see damo as the JOAT who fired the double suboptimally. The guy loves prime numbers and other types of numbers I've never even heard of. Why would he not be able to math this out? Why would damo as JOAT misuse the real value of that skill? There would have been no way to know they could achieve a tie D3, and using the double only to be lynched would be irrelevant; it would be better to fight like hell to get to D4 and hang on to it.

It also kind of assumes at least 2 of the 4 on Bunny are scum, and I'm not sure about that yet.

It seems more likely someone derped it up but saw an opportunity to tie and deny us info.

Okay, that makes sense too. I'm assuming the scum who saw the opportunity to tie was Chaqa, right?

If that's the case, and damo is town, then scum!Chaqa caused (or allowed) a tie twice, saving town!damo both times. Do you think it makes sense for scum to want to deny us info so badly that they'll sacrifice a mislynch? Maybe D1 it makes sense, but now? Even though it wasn't actually mylo, scum need mislynches at this point, especially since they'd have missed out on one D1 if it were TvT.

@kgray/bozo, here is the thing I'm struggling with... in this theory, I can see Chaqa doing this early doublevote, either through mistaken excitement or for the lulz. And I can see someone brazen enough to do it with him: BunnyGo (/Neph, who would not be around to properly counsel Chaqa to the contrary). But I am honestly stuck as to who would be the third and allow this play to slip through, as I do think it is suboptimal and there are a lot of players here who would be cunning and dangerous scum... yourselves included.

Bozo already said this, but Vecna being gone could explain it. Vecna seems pretty adamant that he wouldn't have allowed his team to use it early, but I do think Vecna would understand how a tied vote D3 with a very lynchable town!damo still alive could save the double vote's usefulness - so I don't think Chaqa being the JOAT who activated it early precludes Vecna from being scum. For Vecna to be the JOAT I'd have to get pretty caught up in wifom and assume he'd use the argument that he'd never play it suboptimally as a reason to preclude him from being JOAT...

The other option is that damo's the JOAT, and Chaqa saved him. It's possible Chaqa is town who didn't know he was saving damo but that would be a pretty amazing coincidence.

[kgray]

Tell me kgray: did you not see his trolling posts YESTERDAY?! Do you see them today?

I did not see any posts from damo yesterday that I thought were trolling, no. But yeah, the idea that Vecna or I would activate the double vote and use it to vote for damo makes absolutely no sense and I doubt anyone would honestly believe that. I am fairly confident that either damo or Chaqa is the JOAT.

WHY does JOAT!chaq make more sense that you or vecna?

Chaqa switched at the last minute. Before that, it was going to be damo lynched even with the the double vote. And, the final vote count would indicate the double vote was used on your wagon. If Vecna or I were the JOAT with the double vote, why would we have stayed on your wagon knowing damo would flip AND one of damo/Vecna/me had the double vote? For you to think that either Vecna or I is the JOAT, you have to believe that whichever of us it is would be fine narrowing it down to just the two of us, rather than hiding on damo's wagon.

[kgray]

It is possible the JOAT is someone who did not realize they should save the double vote until it was too late. Chaqa never seemed clear on the optimal use of the double vote.

That would also imply that none of the scumteam understood the optimal use of the double vote. Surely the JOAT wouldn't be going off on their own without consulting their team.

JOAT!damo would. I could even see you using this post to vent frustration about it the way I did last game while on a team with Damo.

That may be true that JOAT!damo would make the decision without consulting his team. But if damo is the JOAT it's also possible (probable, I think) that the double vote was activated because damo was not likely to make it to D4 so the double vote couldn't be used in the optimal way, and they wanted to try to make it count while damo is still alive.

[kgray]

Town Damo still tries to solve when that happens. What about M54 when he was constantly on the chopping block. He was wrong about xorxes, but he was active and hunting.

That's a good point. I don't think it's 100% comparable, because damo in M54 was town who'd just come out of a tied vote at mylo and therefore had very good reason to think I was scum. But you're definitely right that he doesn't seem nearly as invested here, regardless of how much information he has.

Has he not been involved in tie votes this game? What are you doing?

What do you mean, what am I doing? I'm trying to decide if your read/push on damo is authentic or not and I'm trying to figure out both damo's and your alignments.

The tied vote D1 doesn't give nearly as much info as a tied vote in mylo like in that game, and I was mostly referring to his play before the end of D3. But yeah, I saw your point and I even agreed with it.

[kgray]

This makes some sense about your vote order. Can you elaborate why Chaq is more likely scum? Is it mechanics? Vote analysis? How he’s writing?

Besides the reasons for suspecting him before D3, his vote move in the last minute is hard to explain as anything but him moving to force the tie. Chaqa had a series of posts in the last 10 minutes where he was doubting damo was scum, including suddenly agreeing with kgray's reason for suspecting BunnyGo.

@bozo what reasons did you have to suspect him before D3? I looked through your ISO and you hardly talked about Chaqa at all before putting him in a scumteam at the beginning of D3.

[bozotheclown]

If Chaqa is trying to confuse us then the scumteam is Vecna/bozo/Chaqa
If Chaqa is confused town the scumteam is Vecna/kgray/Tom

I find it very out of character that Booz, who has spent this entire game searching backward for previous-game examples to check behavior, isn’t doing so for me here. Because I know for a fact me panicking at EoD is something that has happened within the last few games he played in.

He’s trying to push a mislynch on me.

Bozo/damo/(Vecna/Bunny)

How can me being scum square with your EOD vote?

you or Vecna (or Kgray I guess) are scum JOAT. Then, Vecna and Kgray are pushing a narrative of Buny is scum. Combined with me panicking at the quiet EoD, thinking Town is about to lose

So you/Vecna/Kgray or you/Bozo/Vecna or something

Idk man, this game makes absolutely no sense to me. Every read I’ve had has been dead wrong, so maybe it’s something ridiculous like Tom/Bozo/kgray

Chaqa and damo suggesting scum teams where Vecna or kgray would have to be the JOAT with Chaqa town makes them look more suspicious to me. Maybe I was right about Chaqa/damo/Tom.

[kgray]

If Chaqa is trying to confuse us then the scumteam is Vecna/bozo/Chaqa
If Chaqa is confused town the scumteam is Vecna/kgray/Tom

Why do you have bozo in your first team instead of Tom? Why Tom instead of bozo in the second? How can Vecna and I be a team when that would make one of us the JOAT who was so cavalier about our extra vote being revealed?

Basically can you just flesh this out a bit?

[kgray]

maybe it’s something ridiculous like Tom/Bozo/kgray

lol can you imagine?

[bozotheclown]

This makes some sense about your vote order. Can you elaborate why Chaq is more likely scum? Is it mechanics? Vote analysis? How he’s writing?

Besides the reasons for suspecting him before D3, his vote move in the last minute is hard to explain as anything but him moving to force the tie. Chaqa had a series of posts in the last 10 minutes where he was doubting damo was scum, including suddenly agreeing with kgray's reason for suspecting BunnyGo.

@bozo what reasons did you have to suspect him before D3? I looked through your ISO and you hardly talked about Chaqa at all before putting him in a scumteam at the beginning of D3.

With xorxes flipping town, his reasons for suspecting Chaqa seemed more likely to be accurate. I went over some of these D3.

[kgray]

Besides the reasons for suspecting him before D3, his vote move in the last minute is hard to explain as anything but him moving to force the tie. Chaqa had a series of posts in the last 10 minutes where he was doubting damo was scum, including suddenly agreeing with kgray's reason for suspecting BunnyGo.

@bozo what reasons did you have to suspect him before D3? I looked through your ISO and you hardly talked about Chaqa at all before putting him in a scumteam at the beginning of D3.

With xorxes flipping town, his reasons for suspecting Chaqa seemed more likely to be accurate. I went over some of these D3.

Oh, I was looking for something you said before D3 but I see what you mean now.

[damo666]

If Chaqa is trying to confuse us then the scumteam is Vecna/bozo/Chaqa
If Chaqa is confused town the scumteam is Vecna/kgray/Tom

Why do you have bozo in your first team instead of Tom? Why Tom instead of bozo in the second? How can Vecna and I be a team when that would make one of us the JOAT who was so cavalier about our extra vote being revealed?

Basically can you just flesh this out a bit?

See my previous post. D1 voting narrows it down to these 2 pairs (with assumption Vecna is JOAT).

[damo666]

Yeah I follow this now. I think you're right.

Except on day3 they were not guaranteed to make us lose a mislynch, since town still had the larger numbers. It was still likely to be a waste on D3 and a guaranteed win on D4 if they managed to tie or mislynch town on D3 without it.

Also true.

I could see scum!Vecna annoyed with JOAT!Chaqa who played the double vote suboptimally while he was gone. If this is true, then damo seems their most likely third teammate based on the idea that Chaqa was trying to save damo. But, then all 3 scum would have been on Bunny just to save scum!damo, who is very likely to be lynched later anyway, and Chaqa implicated himself in the process...

Vecna would have realized the value of tying the vote to keep town!damo around to make up for the misuse of the double vote the way bozo described. If damo is town and Vecna and Chaqa are scum, then I could see them trying to orchestrate the tie over the mislynch. In this case, it is possible that their third teammate is Bunny because I don't think it's unreasonable that Chaqa knew bozo and food were gone and Tom wasn't going to move his vote to lynch Bunny. But, it does seem more likely that the third in a Chaqa/Vecna team (if damo is town) would be bozo or Tom. I really don't think it's bozo. If it's Tom, then Chaqa would definitely know Tom wasn't going to break the tie. Tom also switching to Bunny last-minute would have been odd and would have drawn attention to Tom in addition to Chaqa, so it makes sense that they'd rather keep town!bunny and the tie over a town!bunny mislynch.

Sorry, this made my head spin. Who are you saying are the possible scumteams (excluding me of course)?

[bozotheclown]

If Chaqa is trying to confuse us then the scumteam is Vecna/bozo/Chaqa
If Chaqa is confused town the scumteam is Vecna/kgray/Tom

Why do you have bozo in your first team instead of Tom? Why Tom instead of bozo in the second? How can Vecna and I be a team when that would make one of us the JOAT who was so cavalier about our extra vote being revealed?

Basically can you just flesh this out a bit?

See my previous post. D1 voting narrows it down to these 2 pairs (with assumption Vecna is JOAT).

Do you not agree it is unlikely Vecna would be sitting on a 3 vote wagon with you, so that if you flipped town, it would be revealed that kgray or him is the JOAT?

[foodcoats]

So, I didn't actually believe this when I posted it:

That's a very unfortunate result.
Off the cuff I struggle to see damo as the JOAT who fired the double suboptimally. The guy loves prime numbers and other types of numbers I've never even heard of. Why would he not be able to math this out? Why would damo as JOAT misuse the real value of that skill? There would have been no way to know they could achieve a tie D3, and using the double only to be lynched would be irrelevant; it would be better to fight like hell to get to D4 and hang on to it.
It also kind of assumes at least 2 of the 4 on Bunny are scum, and I'm not sure about that yet.
It seems more likely someone derped it up but saw an opportunity to tie and deny us info.

... just wanted to see who would engage with this idea, as it is just barely plausible but obviously mistaken. bozo and kgray agreed with me. I'm not sure what I think about that yet.

I would much have liked to be able to wait a bit longer and see how things go, but I just realized that a 4-4 tie is possible today, so it is essential that town gains unanimity and lynches together here. Therefore I want to lay out why we should lynch damo.

The simplest explanation for EOD3 is that damo is scum, and most likely JOAT. (I would like to note that Tom and Bunny immediately said this at the beginning of the day, and I agreed with them; not sure what to think of that yet, either.)

The doublevote had to be activated D2. If damo was town, I really don't know what would motivate scum to activate it in preparation for D3. D2, I think there was general agreement that D1 xorxes vs. damo was unlikely to be TvT. As such, xorxes' mislynch on D2 naturally pointed to a damo lynch for D3. If damo was town, scum would've simply carefully pushed that lynch and saved the doublevote so that damo's mislynch would mean victory (i.e. today we'd be at 4-3, and they'd have a double). Instead, they activated the doublevote sometime during D2. The only motivation that I can see is that they realized damo was a likely lynch, damo was JOAT, and they wanted to get value out of the doublevote, even if it was a longshot. damo was such a likely lynch that I actually DO NOT believe it is likely they would save it and try to keep damo alive (as I suggested in my trap-post); I think they would activate it and cross their fingers that they might get an opportunity (like the opportunity they were given to tie with Bunny).

I would say it almost doubtless that there is at least one other scum who was on Bunny's wagon D3. Maybe it's Chaqa. Maybe it's kgray. Maybe it's Vecna. But for the moment, I think we should gather as town and lynch damo. Vecna has offered no compelling reasons not to lynch damo, even though he is defending him; everyone who is voting for Chaqa is, effectively, doing it based on scumming damo, or assuming scum are irrational/stupid. The scum are doing very well here and it's silly to assume that they made a mistake. But it's not really a mistake to use your power on the turn you think you're going to die. That's why I shot N1, I wanted to get the use of my power.

Let's lynch damo. Then we can figure out who is scum with him. Let's please not let the scum get a shutout. Chaqa MAY be scum, damo is OBVSCUM. Please god lynch damo today so we can have some kind of semblance of dignity as the town.

##VOTE damo666

[foodcoats]

Oh, I forgot:

I have townread damo because he started the game "oh so great!" I actually was stunned to find damo really participating at the beginning of the game. Normally he just lurks D1. I townread him as a result, thinking that maybe he was amped up to be town again (he was scum and got really hard caught last game), responding to the minimum of 5 posts imposed by Jamie, and wanting to be helpful as this is a mini.

Now, I think it is because he is the scumjoat, and wanted to be perceived as town. Since he usually starts the game scummy as fuck, he switched that up, and tried to be a pal. Then we'd all be like, what a townie guy.

He is not a pal, he is scum.

[foodcoats]

kgray, Vecna and bozo, I await your explanation as to why you are town and voting for Chaqa. NONE of you are dumb, and voting for Chaqa right now is OBVIOUSLY like stringing your guitar with cheese.

Explain yourselves you scumfucks.

[bozotheclown]

kgray, Vecna and bozo, I await your explanation as to why you are town and voting for Chaqa. NONE of you are dumb, and voting for Chaqa right now is OBVIOUSLY like stringing your guitar with cheese.

Explain yourselves you scumfucks.

I think Chaqa and damo are scum, but I can see a case, as I have pointed out, where Chaqa is scum and damo is town and the mafia set up damo for a mislynch today.

[BunnyGo]

Regardless. We NEED to vote damo today. I fucked up yesterday, but damo has to be scum and he’s got a chance to be the JOAT too

##Vote damo

Why did you fuck up yesterday?