M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[xorxes]

I think one of rivera and Fox is scum, unlikely both. There may be one out of Chaqa, kgray, damo and Jamie. I townread Jamie the most out of those, I have seen towny things for both damo and kgray, and Bob's vote for Chaqa makes him less likely to be scum, so I would go with rivera or Fox tomorrow.

Of the rest, I can see any of bozo, Bunny, Balki, Flum as patient zero, but I think we need to have one of the knowing scum flip before trying to identify patient zero.

Regarding the Bob vote on Chaqa, is it the vote itself or dialogue between Chaqa and Bob that gives Chaqa townpoints.

Do you have any history on Bob as a player that would imply he is or isn't the type to distance from scumpartners like that?

No, I don't really have much of a sense of how he plays other than very newbie. He might have been bussing, but I think it's less likely than not bussing.

[xorxes]

Because he said that he got Nk'ed really early really often when he didn't actually? I don't see quite how that's a nail in his coffin. If you got fearkilled a few times in a row, you'd feel pretty bad. You'd remember it. I know I remember being scumread consistently for how I play. In fact, I feel as though it happens every game. I can't see your problem there. And anyway, I don't have anyone better to vote at the moment. You point, I'll have a look at them as soon as I can access the bot again and I've had a look at the previous incarnation of myself.

He made a specific claim to look at the last 10 games as to him being killed night 1 in a lot of them. In fact he had won like 4 of them and was only killed twice in the the first two of the 10.

Seemed like a lie to me.

Well, I doubt he went and looked a the last 10 games. He probably thought he'd been killed in more of them than he was. I don't necessarily think you're scum, because, as always, I've started second-guessing myself (do you guys actively try to make me second-guess myself or is it just something that happens?) but I still can't think of a better vote right now.

Yeah, if this is scum-scum it was pretty well executed.

[kgray]

Random thoughts:

• Speculating about patient zero doesn’t seem like a good use of our time. We have no idea how many of the scumteam they found, and you can pick literally anyone and come up with reasons they could be PZ. We know we have (at least) two scum who knew bob was scum. It makes much more sense to start there.
• Given that we have only one mislynch left, I think that D5 we should vote on the D3 emc wagon. I don’t think we should assume that everyone on the bob wagon is town, but we can come back to that after sorting some of the emc wagon.
• Flum made a good point about Fox and rdr not scumreading each other. It’s suspicious. They’ve both admitted their own votes were scummy but didn’t say anything about each others' votes (that I’ve found). I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch for them to be teammates.
• I didn’t understand the xorxes wagon at all. It’s real suspicious that it was mostly people who voted emc D3, and then they were trying to prevent emc’s lynch D4.

Updated reads (I’m not really considering patient zero in these):

Balki: I think Balki is town based on EOD 4. I think I’ll always be suspicious of him, but I have to get into some pretty deep conspiracy theories to justify the way he played day 4 if he’s scum. His reluctance to vote emc and his push on Fox/rdr/damo seemed honest, and I don’t see scum-Balki saving town-emc like that. Scum-Balki would probably want us to know D3 was scum vs. town to further push his no-bussing agenda. And, considering we only have one mislynch left, I don’t see scum-Balki trying so hard to save town-emc for credit. It would be unnecessary, I think.

Bozo: I still think bozo is town.

Bunny: Leaning towards town, partially based on D3 votes. Still, something about Bunny strikes me as suspicious. It’s been this way all game and I can’t figure out what it is.

Chaqa: I really don’t think Chaqa is scum, but a lot of that is based on bob’s vote and I could be relying on that too much.

damo: I have no idea what damo is doing. For some reason my gut tells me damo is town, but I can’t follow his logic so I can’t really decide if it’s town-motivated or scum-motivated. If Chaqa is scum, I think damo is scum.

Flum: I’m pretty sure Flum is town. I think we’ve been (for the most part) seeing things from a similar perspective and he has made plenty of insightful comments which indicate to me that he’s trying to solve this. Scum-Flum would have to be extremely clever to manipulate the facts to his team’s advantage the way he has been. And that’s possible, but I think it’s much more likely he’s just town.

Fox: I think Fox is scum. In terms of gut-feel, I’ve gone back and forth on Fox this game but I think his votes (and the reasons he gave) D3 and D4 are really scummy.

Jamie: I still think Jamie is town, but would like to see him as focused on solving as he was D3.

rdrivera: I don’t get a lot of “scum vibes” from rdr but the D3 votes and him not voting emc D4 are really compelling evidence against him. One thing that’s interesting is that I think rdr was the only person who was sort of indignant about the Vecna hammer, and then bob came in and echoed that. I’m not sure if that’s alignment-indicative, though. And I think rdr is a smart and logical person who could pretty easily hide his “scumminess” so given his votes I think rdr has a good change of being scum.

xorxes: I think xorxes is town. I didn’t get the push on him D4, but apparently a lot of that was based on meta. Regardless, I don’t see any convincing reason why xorxes is scum here. Although I was already suspicious of a lot of the people voting for him, so that could be biasing my read.

My best guess at the scumteam: rdr, Fox and one of Bunny/damo? Patient zero could really be anyone….

[Balki Bartokomous]

Please lynch Foxcastle and rdrivera.

If it turns out that one of them is not scum (I would put my reputation on the line in predicting that at least one is scum, and maybe both), I would still expect to find the second scum player on the EOD3 EMC wagon.

Once regular scum is caught, we really need to reset all expectations and reads in looking for Patient Zero. Start from scratch. Certainly re-read all flipped scum and observe their interactions for clues, but we can't really assume anything about scum voting behavior with respect to Patient Zero. I think the best way to catch them is probably just to look hard at the scumhunting arguments they have made, and probe them for sincerity. Effort, emotion, sticking your neck out, and wild flailing around -- these are more likely town behaviors and less likely to be Patient Zero behaviors.

If I am the Night Kill, then I hope Watcher will have some good news for you.

Watcher -- if you see the killer, don't tell town right away. Let the day move along for a bit, let people declare their reads and where they want to lynch, and then come forth with your information. There is no reason to declare it at the start of the day.

[Foxcastle]

Let’s see… Bozo is my strongest town read at this point.

Rdrivera, Jamiet, and Bunnygo are townie. Flum is here too, but just behind them.
Chaqa, Kgray, and Damo are townleans (though I’m becoming less sure about Kgray).

Obviously, since I have only two scum reads below, I’m wrong about someone above this line.

Xorxes is a scumlean. I think he’s pointing things out and asking questions and engaging and then not doing anything with it, largely not making judgement calls, not following the thread of what the things he talks about would mean in terms of solving the game. My guess is Patient Zero: he’s not giving himself away through usual scum tells because he doesn’t know who his team is; he’s not solving game because he doesn’t actually want to find them.

I also think it makes a lot of sense that Xorxes and Balki are scum together based on the NK. They (being Balki on the main team) knew if they took out the usual veterans, they’d eventually be attention for not getting NK’d. Targeting less common early NK’s helps give them cover. Even more so, if Kgray is mafia, that would make it even more imperative to protect the veterans so that new scum wouldn’t have to fight town on their own.

Balki is scum. In his read of me on page 172, he totally drops the reason he scumread me hard for three days prior to EOD3 and instead relies only on voting patterns EOD3 and after? (Yes, my D3 votes looks bad.) He spent three days talking about non-confrontation and how great he is at using that to catch scum (using the very same phrasing as his most recent scum game!), and then all the sudden, his signature insight is not important?

(Side note: I also notice that he describes my D4 vote as “tried hard to lynch Bob voters.” Which is a mischaracterization: I voted for Xorxes. Is he not mentioning Xorxes because he knows Xorxes is Patient Zero and he doesn’t want to look like he’s defending Xorxes if he flips scum?)

Balki knew coming into this game that me being “non-confrontational” is NAI. He knows it from when he was scum in M46 and used it to push my mislynch then. He talks about how great that diagnostic is for him across a lot of games, so surely he would notice if there were exceptions, and surely he would remember having misused it as scum. Yet he still pushed it, as a certainty that it was scum-indicative, even though he knew that there was no connection between that aspect of my play style and me being scum. Lynch him.

[brainbomb]

PLEASE HOLD

[brainbomb]

Freedom pulled his knife as he approached the truck.

"Get off my truck you fat fuck". He adjusted his jean jacket as he walked.

A man dressed in a suit stood next to the Italian. He smiled. "Hello there… Freedom", he said. "Weve been expecting you".

Freedom stopped where he stood as thugs produced Janet from the passengers seat. The thugs brought Janet to the Italian on the truck bed.

"Let her go, or else" Freedom said as he ground his teeth.

"Or else what? you gonna pokey poke us with that widdle knife?" asked the fat Italian man.

The man in the suit extended arms and wrapped them around Janet. He licked her cheek and squeezed her buttocks. She held her head down in fear. "My name is Paul Lewnadowski. I'm an Architect" he said with a grin.

Freedom spit blood from his mouth. "You're both demons. You will not defeat humanity. Were fighting back. We will win.
The Italian laughed, "Winning, ahahaha, you think you're winning freedom boy? its over."

Freedom rushed the man in the suit holding Janet and he held up a revolver moments before Freedom could swing the knife.

A bullet to his head, and Janet screamed a deep agonizing wail of defeat.

Chaqa has died, he was Freedom, a Vanilla Town

[Fluminator]

lmao ok thanks

[brainbomb]

Day 5 begins
you may post

[Fluminator]

Good kill mafia

[Balki Bartokomous]

RIP Chaqa.

My reads have been pretty damn good in this game after Day 1, I have to say.

That gives us some more info on Day 3. And Day 1.

##vote Fox

[Foxcastle]

My reads have been pretty damn good in this game after Day 1, I have to say.

Huh. Wonder why that could be???

##VOTE BALKI

[Balki Bartokomous]

My reads have been pretty damn good in this game after Day 1, I have to say.

Huh. Wonder why that could be???

##VOTE BALKI

How on Earth, Fox, after the flips that we've seen from the Day 3 wagons, are you not just a little bit interested in lynching the other people who, with you, voted to lynch EMC and asked people to move off the Bob wagon?

Town!Fox is smart. Town!Fox doesn't just ignore voting behavior. Town!Fox is not playing in this game.

[damo666]

will vote for Fox or kgray

##vote Fox for now

[Balki Bartokomous]

My reads have been pretty damn good in this game after Day 1, I have to say.

Huh. Wonder why that could be???

##VOTE BALKI

Also, you know what else Town!Fox would have said by now? Town!Fox would have said something like:

"You know what, Balki, you are very good at Town, and I just can't see Town!Balki being so wrong about me for so long."

But you haven't said that. Because I am right about your alignment. And so it hasn't occurred to you to make that argument.

[Foxcastle]

My reads have been pretty damn good in this game after Day 1, I have to say.

Huh. Wonder why that could be???

##VOTE BALKI

How on Earth, Fox, after the flips that we've seen from the Day 3 wagons, are you not just a little bit interested in lynching the other people who, with you, voted to lynch EMC and asked people to move off the Bob wagon?

Town!Fox is smart. Town!Fox doesn't just ignore voting behavior. Town!Fox is not playing in this game.

I think you have clung to that idea way too tightly. It's reasonable, but it's hardly an absolute certainty like you've mentioned. The main motivation I can think of for why you'd be pushing that narrative with so little consideration for alternatives is that you're scum and you now it's wrong and you're impatient to win.

[xorxes]

I will start with ##VOTE rdrivera

[Fluminator]

Fox, I don't think Balki is getting lynched today, so who do you think his partner is?

[kgray]

Speaking of awkward phase shifts, I'll be busy in meetings and such until after EoN. If I die, everyone should know what I'm thinking at this point.

You won't be NK'd. Nor will I, nor will Xorxes, nor will Fox.

This bugs me.

[kgray]

Huh. Wonder why that could be???

##VOTE BALKI

How on Earth, Fox, after the flips that we've seen from the Day 3 wagons, are you not just a little bit interested in lynching the other people who, with you, voted to lynch EMC and asked people to move off the Bob wagon?

Town!Fox is smart. Town!Fox doesn't just ignore voting behavior. Town!Fox is not playing in this game.

I think you have clung to that idea way too tightly. It's reasonable, but it's hardly an absolute certainty like you've mentioned. The main motivation I can think of for why you'd be pushing that narrative with so little consideration for alternatives is that you're scum and you now it's wrong and you're impatient to win.

If Balki is scum impatient to win, why did he resist the emc lynch so much? That was an easy mislynch for scum-Balki to drive without drawing much suspicion.