M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[damo666]

Of the 5 Bob voters remaining the only spot I do not townread is Flum.

Of the 5 on emc (excl me) I town read Jamie and Chaqa

So:

imo the scum team is Flum + 2 from (rdr kgray Fox) or it is rdr kgray and Fox

The most likely deepscum I am misreading as town is probably Jamie but I am happy with the above conclusion.

So you think xorxes and Balki are town?

Yep.

The NK will narrow the field even if it's someone widely townread.

[damo666]

I think:
Patient Zero -> xorxes
Scum: Fox and {Flum or Jamie}

Pretty sure rivera and damo are town. Kgray is probably getting the "noob" benefit of a townread, but could be deep cover. If so, we probably lose.

Quite possible.

[Fluminator]

One mislynch left.
And if that happens, town will want to no-lynch the next day in many cases.

And if we had lynched town D3 and D4, we'd already be out of mislynches?

Okay, I'm pretty sure this is right. If someone (I don't care if it's Flum) can confirm, that'd be good though.

Yeah, the modkill took away one of our mislynches

[Fluminator]

After sleeping on it my reads haven't changed

[Fluminator]

One mislynch left.
And if that happens, town will want to no-lynch the next day in many cases.

This calculation isn't completely obvious to me. Yes if we mislynch 2 then it is 3 scum to 3 town, and that's normally a scum win.

BUT one scum doesn't know the others. It is technically possible that the 3 town could play nega-mafia and convince the traitor to vote for his teammates. It'd have to happen twice...so that's not likely.

So if we get a lynch correct and 2 wrong then It is 2-2 (with 1 scum the traitor) we could pull it off still. It's hard, but doable.

See town, HAVE HOPE!

Never give up, and never surrender.


So the question is, if we get 1 good lynch tomorrow, and mislynch the next day, should we hold to bring it to 3-2 and need 2 in a row? or should we go for a lynch and either bring it to 3-1 or 2-2?

Lol, patient zero has a scanner at night to find partners. In that situation they'd have a guaranteed town or scum which is all they need.

I like the idea though in theory. That would be fun.

Something similar happened in reverse mafia here where the original dominant faction became the minority but the game wasn't over.

[Chaqa]

Maybe in the future if there's a modkill we should skip a night phase or something. Just go day to day lol

[brainbomb]

Maybe in the future if there's a modkill we should skip a night phase or something. Just go day to day lol

36/12 is a far far better phase length. 24 hour nights are awful.

[Chaqa]

Maybe in the future if there's a modkill we should skip a night phase or something. Just go day to day lol

36/12 is a far far better phase length. 24 hour nights are awful.

Eh, I don't like the moving phase shift. I often have days where I'm gone for a full 12 hours

[damo666]

Maybe in the future if there's a modkill we should skip a night phase or something. Just go day to day lol

36/12 is a far far better phase length. 24 hour nights are awful.

Eh, I don't like the moving phase shift. I often have days where I'm gone for a full 12 hours

46/2

[brainbomb]

Maybe in the future if there's a modkill we should skip a night phase or something. Just go day to day lol

36/12 is a far far better phase length. 24 hour nights are awful.

Eh, I don't like the moving phase shift. I often have days where I'm gone for a full 12 hours

it doesnt move tho. you start at 8am, the day will always start same time 2 days later

[Chaqa]

36/12 is a far far better phase length. 24 hour nights are awful.

Eh, I don't like the moving phase shift. I often have days where I'm gone for a full 12 hours

46/2

:gasp:

[Chaqa]

36/12 is a far far better phase length. 24 hour nights are awful.

Eh, I don't like the moving phase shift. I often have days where I'm gone for a full 12 hours

it doesnt move tho. you start at 8am, the day will always start same time 2 days later

Right, but the night phase shift could be awkward for people

[Chaqa]

Speaking of awkward phase shifts, I'll be busy in meetings and such until after EoN. If I die, everyone should know what I'm thinking at this point.

[damo666]

Speaking of awkward phase shifts, I'll be busy in meetings and such until after EoN. If I die, everyone should know what I'm thinking at this point.

You won't be NK'd. Nor will I, nor will Xorxes, nor will Fox.

[brainbomb]

1 hour remains

[xorxes]

I think one of rivera and Fox is scum, unlikely both. There may be one out of Chaqa, kgray, damo and Jamie. I townread Jamie the most out of those, I have seen towny things for both damo and kgray, and Bob's vote for Chaqa makes him less likely to be scum, so I would go with rivera or Fox tomorrow.

Of the rest, I can see any of bozo, Bunny, Balki, Flum as patient zero, but I think we need to have one of the knowing scum flip before trying to identify patient zero.

[xorxes]

One mislynch left.
And if that happens, town will want to no-lynch the next day in many cases.

This calculation isn't completely obvious to me. Yes if we mislynch 2 then it is 3 scum to 3 town, and that's normally a scum win.

BUT one scum doesn't know the others. It is technically possible that the 3 town could play nega-mafia and convince the traitor to vote for his teammates. It'd have to happen twice...so that's not likely.

So if we get a lynch correct and 2 wrong then It is 2-2 (with 1 scum the traitor) we could pull it off still. It's hard, but doable.

See town, HAVE HOPE!

Never give up, and never surrender.


So the question is, if we get 1 good lynch tomorrow, and mislynch the next day, should we hold to bring it to 3-2 and need 2 in a row? or should we go for a lynch and either bring it to 3-1 or 2-2?

Lol, patient zero has a scanner at night to find partners. In that situation they'd have a guaranteed town or scum which is all they need.

I like the idea though in theory. That would be fun.

Something similar happened in reverse mafia here where the original dominant faction became the minority but the game wasn't over.

Even without the scan, it would be easy for the scum to identify themselves to patient zero because only they know who they are.

[Fluminator]

If I change my vote you scumread me for changing, if I keep my vote you scumread me for not changing. It's confirmation bias I guess.

I don't scumread you for not changing.
I scumread you because I don't follow a town thought progression for most of your changes.

I just don't know what is this town thought progression you keep referring. I didn't know if emc was town or scum and I don't know if Xorxes is town or scum. Do you want me to pretend I am full of shit and sure about things? I think there is enough town (and maybe scum) people doing this.

It's when I put my head into your position, and try to figure out what would be the most natural thought progression if you're town.

For example, I put my head into Jamiet's point of view if he is town. He just voted for EMC, when Bob was lynched as scum. Jamiet is still thinking EMC is scum, and a lot of players are saying bussing didn't happen. Jamiet throughout day wasn't buying the premise because he was certain EMC was scum, and does not think those other players should be ruled out. I can see why lynching EMC was so important to him to clear that up. Bonus points for him not even being a candidate for lynch so there was no personal survival motive in still wanting EMC lynched.

I put my head into your point of view, and it's a similar situation, but instead you're doing everything you can to vote off the EMC wagon this time for the reason that you find Xorx scummy. I've looked through your iso and the reasons are meta and he end hammered Vecna. I don't see any town progression in preferring a xorx lynch to an EMC lynch the day after you voted to lynch EMC considering the circumstances.

If you can explain why you prioritized Xorx over EMC yesterday I'm willing to listen.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I don't scumread you for not changing.
I scumread you because I don't follow a town thought progression for most of your changes.

I just don't know what is this town thought progression you keep referring. I didn't know if emc was town or scum and I don't know if Xorxes is town or scum. Do you want me to pretend I am full of shit and sure about things? I think there is enough town (and maybe scum) people doing this.

It's when I put my head into your position, and try to figure out what would be the most natural thought progression if you're town.

For example, I put my head into Jamiet's point of view if he is town. He just voted for EMC, when Bob was lynched as scum. Jamiet is still thinking EMC is scum, and a lot of players are saying bussing didn't happen. Jamiet throughout day wasn't buying the premise because he was certain EMC was scum, and does not think those other players should be ruled out. I can see why lynching EMC was so important to him to clear that up. Bonus points for him not even being a candidate for lynch so there was no personal survival motive in still wanting EMC lynched.

I put my head into your point of view, and it's a similar situation, but instead you're doing everything you can to vote off the EMC wagon this time for the reason that you find Xorx scummy. I've looked through your iso and the reasons are meta and he end hammered Vecna. I don't see any town progression in preferring a xorx lynch to an EMC lynch the day after you voted to lynch EMC considering the circumstances.

If you can explain why you prioritized Xorx over EMC yesterday I'm willing to listen.

+1 completely agree.

Same exact thing applies to Fox.

[Fluminator]

I think one of rivera and Fox is scum, unlikely both. There may be one out of Chaqa, kgray, damo and Jamie. I townread Jamie the most out of those, I have seen towny things for both damo and kgray, and Bob's vote for Chaqa makes him less likely to be scum, so I would go with rivera or Fox tomorrow.

Of the rest, I can see any of bozo, Bunny, Balki, Flum as patient zero, but I think we need to have one of the knowing scum flip before trying to identify patient zero.

Regarding the Bob vote on Chaqa, is it the vote itself or dialogue between Chaqa and Bob that gives Chaqa townpoints.

Do you have any history on Bob as a player that would imply he is or isn't the type to distance from scumpartners like that?