M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[Jamiet99uk]

Would it be considered outside the spirit of the game to try to trick him into getting modkilled?

What is this nonsense?

Yes, it is totally against the spirit of the game to somehow induce someone to break the rules of the game.

Don't be an ass.

[Chaqa]

@Everyone: Be wary of anybody attempting to brush off this renewed attempt to lynch EMC as "a policy lynch" or "just because he is lurking".

That is not the case. I genuinely scumread EMC. I gave some reasons on page 89 and little has happened to change my view.

Jamiet just wants to lynch EMC because he's lurking. This is a complete policy lynch!

[Foxcastle]

This exchange between Fox and Balki is starting to remember me one between Teacon and Xorxes where both were town.
I think you two should take a break and look other things. Even if you are right there is another scum to catch and the Traitor. Because you are just hijacking the thread.

I took Flum up on his offer to reread someone (you). Who (or what) would you have me dig into?

Could you re-read Xorxes, specially D2 and see if I am wrong on expecting Xorxes to behave differently over Vecna lynch? Also, could you see if he was trying to shade me and set me as a myslynch?

Xorxes' Day 1 is bland, and I'd say vaguely meticulous. His Night 1 is a good bit of discussion with several players who we now know are town.

Xorxes Day 2/Night 2: More laid back than I usually think of Xorxes being, so that makes this a little ambiguous. But I don't see a problem with Xorxes' progression on lynching Vecna.

I do find it odd that Xorxes basically did not think that 8 end-votes was a serious situation. He talks about how nobody wanted to cast the final end vote before Vecna did it to himself and how the phase would likely have gone forward; he didn't see the point in me switching votes to avoid the end-hammer resulting in a tie; he says that it was clear to him that we were not serious about end-hammering and that it was all pressure. But it's not like he doesn't know who we all are! The idea that it was unlikely that somebody get trigger happy and cast the final end vote is not realistic (it's realistic that it might not have happened). The point is, Xorxes' reaction to all this is to assert that we were never in any real danger of ending.

I understand the reaction Rdrivera has to this, because Xorxes is contradicting the expected result where he is surprised by what happens, rather than in denial that it should have been possible. It was clearly a dangerous situation that could have ended at any moment, but Xorxes is basically saying that it wasn't.

I really don't understand how Xorxes votes end, how it gets to 8 end votes, and his conclusion is that it wasn't a real risk that we'd have a flip then and there. But I am not sure that it's scum-indicative on Xorxes. Xorxes has a quiet confidence about his abilities, and in a situation where a confident smart person is wrong, I think it does happen that they react with denial ("that shouldn't have been possible") rather than surprise.

Day 3/Night 3/Day4: Lots of focus on Chaqa. But he has not really homed in anywhere. He's handing out lots of town points, but doesn't seem to be doing much with them; similarly, the places he does dig in to a particular exchange or vote scenario, he ends with a couple different of possibilities about what it could mean, but doesn't make a judgement call.

Another note I caught: Xorxes makes little in-jokes throughout his posts. Calling worcej smarmy, asking Chaqa about college roommates, "worcius"... That just seems odd to me, but I don't know if it means anything.

So I don't have problem with his reaction to the Vecna lynch. I do have a problem with him looking like he's doing solvy things without actually finishing the calculation. So if it came down to him versus someone I townread, I'd vote for him, but I think I am unlikely to push him today.

[Chaqa]

@Everyone: Be wary of anybody attempting to brush off this renewed attempt to lynch EMC as "a policy lynch" or "just because he is lurking".

That is not the case. I genuinely scumread EMC. I gave some reasons on page 89 and little has happened to change my view.

Related, what is the calculation on whether we should lynch EMC now to avoid a potential modkill today (assuming he doesn't show up, though I think he will), versus lynching someone else and having two flips today (assuming he doesn't show up), versus EMC shows up and we lynch someone else but have to deal with him possibly being modkilled on later days closer to LyLo/MyLo?

Letting him be modkilled is essentially just changing us from MyLo to LyLo in two days.

[Chaqa]

Would it be considered outside the spirit of the game to try to trick him into getting modkilled?

Debatable. If he is town and thinks his being modkilled helps town win, then he wouldn't be playing against his win condition necessarily. That said, if he refuses to follow this strategy, we could consider him scum :)

[kgray]

damo: I would absolutely not describe damo's EOD as subtle. To me, it seems too obvious to be bob's scum teammate. And why would he be afraid to move his vote around if he's going to be this blatant about pushing for the emc lynch in the end?

I remember damo helping get me mislynched once when he was scum doing something equally as blatant. I looked it up and it was D1 of M46. I was one vote behind scum Flavius, 7-6, 3 minutes before EOD, when scum damo posted this:

Vote bozo now

For some reason, 2 town responded by immediately voting for me, leading to me getting mislynched.

Compare this to how damo ended D3:

Back to emc folks

1 more switch required

Maybe damo is willing to blatantly try to save a scum teammate at EOD because he knows people will think it is too obvious to be scum.

Okay, that is good to know. Knowing damo has done this before makes his EOD seem less towny, but I'm not sure if it makes it more scummy. I think he could easily do the same thing as town convinced emc is the right lynch.

[Chaqa]

@Everyone: Be wary of anybody attempting to brush off this renewed attempt to lynch EMC as "a policy lynch" or "just because he is lurking".

That is not the case. I genuinely scumread EMC. I gave some reasons on page 89 and little has happened to change my view.

Related, what is the calculation on whether we should lynch EMC now to avoid a potential modkill today (assuming he doesn't show up, though I think he will), versus lynching someone else and having two flips today (assuming he doesn't show up), versus EMC shows up and we lynch someone else but have to deal with him possibly being modkilled on later days closer to LyLo/MyLo?

It's tricky.

I don't mind scum being modkilled. However, I am aware of a potential scum strategy, especially at a later stage in the game, which basically goes like this:

1. Lurk horribly.
2. Observe that the possibility of you being modkilled has been discussed.
3. Continue to lurk in the hope that people will not vote for you because they assume you are going to be modkilled.
4. Show up late in the day, and avoid both the modkill and the lynch.

I would say if EMC does this, it's especially difficult because that's also how he plays as town

[Foxcastle]

This exchange between Fox and Balki is starting to remember me one between Teacon and Xorxes where both were town.
I think you two should take a break and look other things. Even if you are right there is another scum to catch and the Traitor. Because you are just hijacking the thread.

This possibly has recently entered my mind for a very specific reason.

What specific reason?

In the game we were town-town together, we also butted heads, but it briefly got into personal attacks. I haven't checked, but I don't recall that from him as scum. I thought him calling me a "little sneak" might be an indicator that he's town.

[Chaqa]

@Jamiet - I'm not 100% against the EMC wagon, but can we wait to see if he shows up? If he is modkilled, it doesn't change our endgame math at all.

FWIW, I think Jamiet makin this push is town indicative, unless he is scum with EMC, since there's little reason for scum to push EMC right now IMO.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Everyone: Be wary of anybody attempting to brush off this renewed attempt to lynch EMC as "a policy lynch" or "just because he is lurking".

That is not the case. I genuinely scumread EMC. I gave some reasons on page 89 and little has happened to change my view.

Jamiet just wants to lynch EMC because he's lurking. This is a complete policy lynch!

I was already wary of you, Chaqademus and Pliers.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Jamiet - I'm not 100% against the EMC wagon, but can we wait to see if he shows up? If he is modkilled, it doesn't change our endgame math at all.

FWIW, I think Jamiet makin this push is town indicative, unless he is scum with EMC, since there's little reason for scum to push EMC right now IMO.

No, because then he will wait to show up until the last few minutes and once again he will avoid the lynch like what I just said, dum-dum.

[Foxcastle]

@Everyone (Balki, I expect at least you to play but hope others do too)

I'm curious about your rankings of scummiest to least scummy of the 7 players:

EMC, Damo, rdr, Jamie, kgray, Fox, Chaq.

[Scum] EMC > Chaqa >> Damo > Rdr > Jamie > Kgray >> Fox [Town]

[Chaqa]

@Everyone: Be wary of anybody attempting to brush off this renewed attempt to lynch EMC as "a policy lynch" or "just because he is lurking".

That is not the case. I genuinely scumread EMC. I gave some reasons on page 89 and little has happened to change my view.

Jamiet just wants to lynch EMC because he's lurking. This is a complete policy lynch!

I was already wary of you, Chaqademus and Pliers.

Sic Semper Tyrranus!

[Chaqa]

@Jamiet - I'm not 100% against the EMC wagon, but can we wait to see if he shows up? If he is modkilled, it doesn't change our endgame math at all.

FWIW, I think Jamiet makin this push is town indicative, unless he is scum with EMC, since there's little reason for scum to push EMC right now IMO.

No, because then he will wait to show up until the last few minutes and once again he will avoid the lynch like what I just said, dum-dum.

But, like I said... he does this as town also :/

[kgray]

I am happy someone started to see what I am seeing about kgray. His move from this at night 3

Rdrivera:
• Rdr’s vote for Bob when only xorxes was voting Bob, and when Chaqa expressed interest in voting Bob, makes me think rdr is town. I wouldn’t expect him to get this wagon going if he were bob’s teammate.

to this at day

Originally I though rdr helping to start bob's wagon was towny, but that was pretty early during the day when there was plenty of time for someone else to become a wagon. And, rdr didn't even put bob in the lead at that point, and as soon as bob was in the lead rdr changed his vote. He did provide reasonable explanations for his votes when he switched them. I think rdr is capable of doing this as scum, though, and I think rdr jumped off of bob as soon as he had a reason to, and then found reasons not to get back on bob's wagon. I think rdr's votes are scummy.

It look like trying to find a reason to vote top wagon. Also, I didn't move when Bob was in thre lead (it was tied) and she never addressed me a single question.

What changed is I finished rereading the EOD 3, and looked at the vote counts on the bot for each time people changed votes. Two of the things I was looking for was people who had excuses to leave bob's wagon and didn't (hence me thinking Bunny came out of day 3 looking towny) and people who did leave bob's wagon when they were presented with an excuse to do so (hence me thinking your and fox's votes looked scummy).

I did consider your reasons for voting emc in my analysis, even if I only alluded to it in my post. I think that as scum you'd be very capable of putting in reasonable explanations for your votes. So I while I can believe that town-rdr honestly thought emc is scum, I also believe that scum-rdr can easily come up with this reason for why emc is scum to avoid voting for a teammate.

You are right that it was tied when you moved your vote, apologies. I misread the bot. But your move did take bob out of the tied lead position, so I don't know if that changes my analysis very much.

[Fluminator]

Would it be considered outside the spirit of the game to try to trick him into getting modkilled?

Debatable. If he is town and thinks his being modkilled helps town win, then he wouldn't be playing against his win condition necessarily. That said, if he refuses to follow this strategy, we could consider him scum :)

I remember when I was on the mafia council (lol, how did I ever get that position) we put in a rule that being modkilled automatically puts you on the losing team, so it would be playing against your win con.

But I don't see it in the rule thread for this game...

Would it be considered outside the spirit of the game to try to trick him into getting modkilled?

What is this nonsense?

Yes, it is totally against the spirit of the game to somehow induce someone to break the rules of the game.

Don't be an ass.

Yeah, but EMC is already kind of playing against the spirit of the game by refusing to post or play until eod as some sort of policy which he apparently does every game?

[xorxes]

The comparison you did between my first post in this game and another game is ridiculous. It's a semi joke and the usual way I start playing as any alignment and it really gives me pause that you brought that. The way you insisted that I should have thought HM misapplied the rules instead of the rules have burn changed is even worst.

Maybe it was lighthearted, but it didn't strike me as a joke. In both cases you were responding to something non-jokey and your comment at least seemed to be one of serious approval. And it wouldn't have been remarkable if it was something you do all the time. I don't recall you ever starting a game with a favorable disposition towards me, other than these two instances. You normally view everything I do with suspicion.

As for the other thing, You are either misunderstanding or purposefully misinterpreting. Your "who changed the rules? I will now read the last 20 pages" sounded to me like you wanted to make it clear that you were not responsible for the hammer because your hammer vote was made under a different understanding of the rules.

[rdrivera2005]

@Fox - Thanks for your analysis on Xorxes. I could be tunneling. Just please don't let him alive on mylo/lylo, he is really good at it as scum.

[xorxes]

I genuinely don't want to die right now so ##vote bob

Sorry man

This post is INTERESTING.

Why the "sorry man"?

Why the "don't want to die" comment?

Of all the other posts I've seen, this is the only one that jumps out as possible bussing because of the seemingly inconsequential comments.

I wonder what Bob would have done if not for Aussie time zone issues.

"Sorry man" indicates he thought he was town and was voting just to save himself, which is a reasonable thing to say if he is town. The weird thing is the "genuinely", as if not wanting to die was something that needed explanation.

[Fluminator]

If EMC gets lynched, I won't be ranting to the God thread about how bad the town is because I understand that one.

I think I'll stay on Rdrivera though.

1. Switched off Bob (scum) onto EMC eod 3. Did it in a sneaky way by voting someone else between the switch for a small time. No matter how much someone can smoothtalk it, it looks bad on paper.

2. One of the only players (others being Fox and EMC) to never try to engage with or interact with Bob. Scum partners usually try to avoid contact to avoid associative tells or awkward scum vs. scum interaction.

3. I'm always looking for towntells in people, and since day 1, he's had no thoughts that I see more likely coming from a clueless townie perspective. Call this one gut.

4. I've struggled following his thought patterns all game, and seeing a logical progression that town would have. (For example, saying that at least two scum probably bussed Bob, but we should lynch on the EMC wagon - even though there are only 2 buddies in the know) If he was town, I'd feel like he'd realize stuff like this before being pointed out.

5. He'll say stuff and go back on them when convenient for reasons that seem weak to me.