M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[rdrivera2005]

EMC hasn't posted since page 10, and the 13 posts he made up to that point contain absolutely zero content.

He is scum again.

##VOTE EMC

I don't want to lynch Fox today and bandwagoning Tem is just boring.

##vote Chaqa, he seems off

I quoted a wrong post, but nevermind.

[kgray]

@Fox for comparison, the following players have also had at most 1 vote:

Baiki, Bozo, bo_sox, Chaq, EMC, kgray, PjAndy, Rdr, Sulit, Vecna, Worcej, Xorxes

Now, there is surely at least 1 or 2 scum in here. Several of these players are different than your complain about worcej because they gave compelling reasons for their vote (bozo, rdr, kgray, xorxes). And I'm giving Andy a pass D1 as he's new and not as awesome as kgray.

The list then becomes:

Balki, bo_sox, Chaq, EMC, Sulit, Vecna, Worcej. 7 players, high odds of 1-3 scum there, but no reason any one of them is necessarily scum or not.

So like I said, Worcej not placing a real vote is not by itself damning. But the other of his actions around it are the added oomph.

I'm also trying to not zero in and become myopic and self reinforcing this game. Temasek is not on the above list, but he's looking pretty scummy for other reasons.

What compelling reasons did rdr or xorxes give? Or me, for that matter?

[Temasek22]

It's time for me to reveal my cards.

I've played as scum on this site way too many times to still be crumbling under pressure. And in my games as scum my collapse is usually around D3/D4 after successfully lurking and appearing town early game.

Of course, as it's the school holidays for me , I got bored and just wanted to try something out, to try and sniff out scum by faking noobscum and seeing everyone's reactions. Guess what?

4 voted for me at some point, with brain giving the most sketchy reasoning of all. Most ended up focusing more on other targets, so the experiment didn't, really, work there. That said, worcej applied good pressure. Bunny and Flum I actually think are town, and emc, where have you gone? Oh, and we have wayyy too many VT claims at this point too.

##vote brainbomb

[kgray]

It's time for me to reveal my cards.

I've played as scum on this site way too many times to still be crumbling under pressure. And in my games as scum my collapse is usually around D3/D4 after successfully lurking and appearing town early game.

Of course, as it's the school holidays for me , I got bored and just wanted to try something out, to try and sniff out scum by faking noobscum and seeing everyone's reactions. Guess what?

4 voted for me at some point, with brain giving the most sketchy reasoning of all. Most ended up focusing more on other targets, so the experiment didn't, really, work there. That said, worcej applied good pressure. Bunny and Flum I actually think are town, and emc, where have you gone? Oh, and we have wayyy too many VT claims at this point too.

##vote brainbomb

What specifically did you do to fake noobscum?

[BunnyGo]

@Fox for comparison, the following players have also had at most 1 vote:

Baiki, Bozo, bo_sox, Chaq, EMC, kgray, PjAndy, Rdr, Sulit, Vecna, Worcej, Xorxes

Now, there is surely at least 1 or 2 scum in here. Several of these players are different than your complain about worcej because they gave compelling reasons for their vote (bozo, rdr, kgray, xorxes). And I'm giving Andy a pass D1 as he's new and not as awesome as kgray.

The list then becomes:

Balki, bo_sox, Chaq, EMC, Sulit, Vecna, Worcej. 7 players, high odds of 1-3 scum there, but no reason any one of them is necessarily scum or not.

So like I said, Worcej not placing a real vote is not by itself damning. But the other of his actions around it are the added oomph.

I'm also trying to not zero in and become myopic and self reinforcing this game. Temasek is not on the above list, but he's looking pretty scummy for other reasons.

What compelling reasons did rdr or xorxes give? Or me, for that matter?

You had been targeting Tem for inconsistencies right before voting. Xorxes and rdr (IIRC). I looked back at xorxes just now and it was not as compelling as I remembered; his aura of having asked a good question or two at the start leaked into my memory. It was "I didn't feel like starting yet another wagon, and Chaqa is one of the two existing ones I could see myself voting for at the moment." That's not great, but better than nothing.

Rdr's was that he wanted to force Fox to show some more stuff. Again, probably all three of you had bled from your good other posts into my memory.

[BunnyGo]

It's time for me to reveal my cards.

I've played as scum on this site way too many times to still be crumbling under pressure. And in my games as scum my collapse is usually around D3/D4 after successfully lurking and appearing town early game.

Of course, as it's the school holidays for me , I got bored and just wanted to try something out, to try and sniff out scum by faking noobscum and seeing everyone's reactions. Guess what?

4 voted for me at some point, with brain giving the most sketchy reasoning of all. Most ended up focusing more on other targets, so the experiment didn't, really, work there. That said, worcej applied good pressure. Bunny and Flum I actually think are town, and emc, where have you gone? Oh, and we have wayyy too many VT claims at this point too.

##vote brainbomb

Umm, cool bro. Big win? Didn't want to carry the facade anymore? Got nervous you wouldn't be able to back off later?

[Temasek22]

It's time for me to reveal my cards.

I've played as scum on this site way too many times to still be crumbling under pressure. And in my games as scum my collapse is usually around D3/D4 after successfully lurking and appearing town early game.

Of course, as it's the school holidays for me , I got bored and just wanted to try something out, to try and sniff out scum by faking noobscum and seeing everyone's reactions. Guess what?

4 voted for me at some point, with brain giving the most sketchy reasoning of all. Most ended up focusing more on other targets, so the experiment didn't, really, work there. That said, worcej applied good pressure. Bunny and Flum I actually think are town, and emc, where have you gone? Oh, and we have wayyy too many VT claims at this point too.

##vote brainbomb

What specifically did you do to fake noobscum?

Flip flopping+putting up horrible defenses when accused. Basically just looking back at ItsHosuke's M48 game

[kgray]

@Fox for comparison, the following players have also had at most 1 vote:

Baiki, Bozo, bo_sox, Chaq, EMC, kgray, PjAndy, Rdr, Sulit, Vecna, Worcej, Xorxes

Now, there is surely at least 1 or 2 scum in here. Several of these players are different than your complain about worcej because they gave compelling reasons for their vote (bozo, rdr, kgray, xorxes). And I'm giving Andy a pass D1 as he's new and not as awesome as kgray.

The list then becomes:

Balki, bo_sox, Chaq, EMC, Sulit, Vecna, Worcej. 7 players, high odds of 1-3 scum there, but no reason any one of them is necessarily scum or not.

So like I said, Worcej not placing a real vote is not by itself damning. But the other of his actions around it are the added oomph.

I'm also trying to not zero in and become myopic and self reinforcing this game. Temasek is not on the above list, but he's looking pretty scummy for other reasons.

What compelling reasons did rdr or xorxes give? Or me, for that matter?

You had been targeting Tem for inconsistencies right before voting. Xorxes and rdr (IIRC). I looked back at xorxes just now and it was not as compelling as I remembered; his aura of having asked a good question or two at the start leaked into my memory. It was "I didn't feel like starting yet another wagon, and Chaqa is one of the two existing ones I could see myself voting for at the moment." That's not great, but better than nothing.

Rdr's was that he wanted to force Fox to show some more stuff. Again, probably all three of you had bled from your good other posts into my memory.

So you didn't go back and look at xorxes' vote before you decided it was compelling?

[BunnyGo]

Current leading wagons:


Chaqa (3) Fluminator* xorxes rdrivera2005
Temasek22 (3) brainbomb kgray damo666
brainbomb (3) Vecna bo_sox48 Temasek22

From my POV, the brain wagon is scummiest, the Chaq wagon towniest.

Using bozo's questionairre as a metric the total town votes for the wagons are:

Chaq: 2 + 7 + 3 =12
Tem: 5 + 7 + 2 = 14
brain: 0 + 2 + 0 = 2

I don't know if this is worth anything. But the brain wagon looks bad.

[Temasek22]

It's time for me to reveal my cards.

I've played as scum on this site way too many times to still be crumbling under pressure. And in my games as scum my collapse is usually around D3/D4 after successfully lurking and appearing town early game.

Of course, as it's the school holidays for me , I got bored and just wanted to try something out, to try and sniff out scum by faking noobscum and seeing everyone's reactions. Guess what?

4 voted for me at some point, with brain giving the most sketchy reasoning of all. Most ended up focusing more on other targets, so the experiment didn't, really, work there. That said, worcej applied good pressure. Bunny and Flum I actually think are town, and emc, where have you gone? Oh, and we have wayyy too many VT claims at this point too.

##vote brainbomb

Umm, cool bro. Big win? Didn't want to carry the facade anymore? Got nervous you wouldn't be able to back off later?

Big win? No, although I am >99% sure at least one opportunistic scum jumped on my wagon on their first chance.

It wasn't worth it to carry on after 24 hours. The reaction test didn't work out the way I thought it would.

[BunnyGo]

What compelling reasons did rdr or xorxes give? Or me, for that matter?

You had been targeting Tem for inconsistencies right before voting. Xorxes and rdr (IIRC). I looked back at xorxes just now and it was not as compelling as I remembered; his aura of having asked a good question or two at the start leaked into my memory. It was "I didn't feel like starting yet another wagon, and Chaqa is one of the two existing ones I could see myself voting for at the moment." That's not great, but better than nothing.

Rdr's was that he wanted to force Fox to show some more stuff. Again, probably all three of you had bled from your good other posts into my memory.

So you didn't go back and look at xorxes' vote before you decided it was compelling?

No, if you haven't figured it out yet, I'm home on my phone homeschooling kids and trying to work (trading off with spouse). I try to find some time to search the bot, but it's usually after D1, and I'll do deep dives. It hasn't often worked out well (at least last game, previous games went better--trying not to let 1 big failure get in my head too much).

I like to post based on suspicions, impressions, feelings, recollections. It's more honest; it lets me sort by feeling, impression, and general content and sense rather than a spreadsheet. And while I do go back and check things, the "sense" works better for me than nitpicking. I've actually never caught scum by nitpicking.

[rdrivera2005]

It's time for me to reveal my cards.

I've played as scum on this site way too many times to still be crumbling under pressure. And in my games as scum my collapse is usually around D3/D4 after successfully lurking and appearing town early game.

Of course, as it's the school holidays for me , I got bored and just wanted to try something out, to try and sniff out scum by faking noobscum and seeing everyone's reactions. Guess what?

4 voted for me at some point, with brain giving the most sketchy reasoning of all. Most ended up focusing more on other targets, so the experiment didn't, really, work there. That said, worcej applied good pressure. Bunny and Flum I actually think are town, and emc, where have you gone? Oh, and we have wayyy too many VT claims at this point too.

##vote brainbomb

Umm, cool bro. Big win? Didn't want to carry the facade anymore? Got nervous you wouldn't be able to back off later?

Big win? No, although I am >99% sure at least one opportunistic scum jumped on my wagon on their first chance.

It wasn't worth it to carry on after 24 hours. The reaction test didn't work out the way I thought it would.

A bit convoluted, but you were so blatantly scummy that it can be true.

[kgray]

It's time for me to reveal my cards.

I've played as scum on this site way too many times to still be crumbling under pressure. And in my games as scum my collapse is usually around D3/D4 after successfully lurking and appearing town early game.

Of course, as it's the school holidays for me , I got bored and just wanted to try something out, to try and sniff out scum by faking noobscum and seeing everyone's reactions. Guess what?

4 voted for me at some point, with brain giving the most sketchy reasoning of all. Most ended up focusing more on other targets, so the experiment didn't, really, work there. That said, worcej applied good pressure. Bunny and Flum I actually think are town, and emc, where have you gone? Oh, and we have wayyy too many VT claims at this point too.

##vote brainbomb

What specifically did you do to fake noobscum?

Flip flopping+putting up horrible defenses when accused. Basically just looking back at ItsHosuke's M48 game

Interesting. Besides your inconsistencies with your town list, the main thing I find suspect about you is that I don't think you're actually reading the thread. Initially I thought maybe you just weren't interested in putting that much effort into the game. But now you're saying you've been trying an elaborate ruse, and that you're looking suspicious on purpose. But, you're not including "not reading the thread" in your methods of trying to look suspicious.

I doubt you're both 1. not paying attention to the game AND 2. putting on an act to try to catch people. If you're going to go through all the effort to fake looking scummy, then I'd expect you to also go through the effort to try to figure out who is actually scum. And that would definitely require reading the thread.

[Temasek22]

What specifically did you do to fake noobscum?

Flip flopping+putting up horrible defenses when accused. Basically just looking back at ItsHosuke's M48 game

Interesting. Besides your inconsistencies with your town list, the main thing I find suspect about you is that I don't think you're actually reading the thread. Initially I thought maybe you just weren't interested in putting that much effort into the game. But now you're saying you've been trying an elaborate ruse, and that you're looking suspicious on purpose. But, you're not including "not reading the thread" in your methods of trying to look suspicious.

I doubt you're both 1. not paying attention to the game AND 2. putting on an act to try to catch people. If you're going to go through all the effort to fake looking scummy, then I'd expect you to also go through the effort to try to figure out who is actually scum. And that would definitely require reading the thread.

I *do* read the thread, what makes you think I didn't?

[Temasek22]

Oh, and EoD is in 4 am in my timezone. RIP

[damo666]

It's time for me to reveal my cards.

I've played as scum on this site way too many times to still be crumbling under pressure. And in my games as scum my collapse is usually around D3/D4 after successfully lurking and appearing town early game.

Of course, as it's the school holidays for me , I got bored and just wanted to try something out, to try and sniff out scum by faking noobscum and seeing everyone's reactions. Guess what?

4 voted for me at some point, with brain giving the most sketchy reasoning of all. Most ended up focusing more on other targets, so the experiment didn't, really, work there. That said, worcej applied good pressure. Bunny and Flum I actually think are town, and emc, where have you gone? Oh, and we have wayyy too many VT claims at this point too.

##vote brainbomb

Tem panicking

[damo666]

I strongly doubt ALL scum are in that list. I also strongly doubt that list is all town. Averaging people's opinions just doesn't work like that man.

The probability there are all 4 scum in any arbitrary group of 8 is about 1.8%.
The chance of no scum is about 13 in a million.

We can be confident therefore the above list contains at least 1 scum and very likely either 2 or 3.

@Bunny please check my arithmetic, back of envelope the morning after St Payrock's day so may be unreliable.

We have 19 choose 8 number of choices of a group of 8 players. This is about 75k.

If we force the 4 scum to be in the group, then there are 15 choose 4 such collections of 8 players. which is about 1300.

Dividing gives 1.8%

Having 0 scum in the collection is 15 choose 8 which is 6435, giving 8.5%.

So having 1, 2, or 3 scum is a 90% proposition.

Thought it sounded wrong, 11C4/19C4 is indeed 8.5% (looking at it another way).

Thanks Bunny.

[damo666]

Current leading wagons:


Chaqa (3) Fluminator* xorxes rdrivera2005
Temasek22 (3) brainbomb kgray damo666
brainbomb (3) Vecna bo_sox48 Temasek22

From my POV, the brain wagon is scummiest, the Chaq wagon towniest.

Using bozo's questionairre as a metric the total town votes for the wagons are:

Chaq: 2 + 7 + 3 =12
Tem: 5 + 7 + 2 = 14
brain: 0 + 2 + 0 = 2

I don't know if this is worth anything. But the brain wagon looks bad.

Agreed

[damo666]

@Xorxes and @rdr

Why you voting for Chaqa?

[kgray]

I *do* read the thread, what makes you think I didn't?

It's the overall impression I've gotten from your posts. Part of that is because mostly you respond to things that are quick and easy to respond to (bozo's town survey and off-topic things like pizza and Zimbabwean currency, for example). I don't think I've seen you bring up any of your own insights. It just seems kind of lazy. I was willing to accept this, that you are town but just didn't care about solving this to read closely and come up with your own opinions. But I can't believe both that and that you've come up with this "pretend to be noobscum" strategy. They're contradictory to me.

But more concretely, you've asked a few questions that had already been answered in the thread. These two are from one "summary" post from you:

Godfather scans as scum to [patient zero] I think?

@kgray is your preferred pronoun [her/she]? It's what everyone uses to call you but I'm asking just in case as I didn't see any direct confirmation while skimming through the thread.

And then I found this exchange really weird:

Get the fuck off this site and never come back, Satan.

Please don't be rude, it upsets Balki.

I'm sorry for starting this, by the way. Happens to the best of us.

Jamie was clearly referring to something that happened two pages back that didn't at all start because of anything you said, and I thought that you not recognizing that was strange.

And finally, this one:

Are you claiming VT as well?

Sure, why not.

Damn, a VT claim already? That's fast

There had already been quite a bit of discussion about all the VT claims, including one post from bozo where he literally pointed out that there had been 4 of them.