M53: Mafia 1 Redux

[BunnyGo]

Looking at the vote record, I think Flash + Kakarroto could make sense.

D1: Flash votes Damo with 9 minutes to go, which could be a weak bid to save EMC. Kak sits on Jamie, nice and out of the way.

D2: Flash busses Kak, but is the only vote on Kak the whole day, and then he sits there at EOD, safely out of the way of what we now know was a TvT lynch. Kak piles on Bozo at the last minute.

D3: Flash sits on Kalel, and I pointed out previously why Kakarroto's D3 votes are scummy.

Interesting. I could still see Kak.

@Kalel: under the hypothesis that I am town (something I know) and that you are town (something you claim to know and I’ll posit for this question) why did nobody lynch me or Bob day 1?

[flash2015]

Again, you still are off on your vanity wagon.

So... you demand a case, but then assert I'm not supposed to be making a case on you anyway???

No...you hadn't actually made a case at that point when I wrote this.

[flash2015]

Looking at the vote record, I think Flash + Kakarroto could make sense.

D1: Flash votes Damo with 9 minutes to go, which could be a weak bid to save EMC. Kak sits on Jamie, nice and out of the way.

D2: Flash busses Kak, but is the only vote on Kak the whole day, and then he sits there at EOD, safely out of the way of what we now know was a TvT lynch. Kak piles on Bozo at the last minute.

D3: Flash sits on Kalel, and I pointed out previously why Kakarroto's D3 votes are scummy.

Say you don't get your wish to lynch me today, you would vote for Kak? You think Kalel is town?

[flash2015]

I think you are scum, but if I am wrong I want to see what we may agree on. Again, we need at least a tie today to not lose (preferably of course we lynch scum).

[Foxcastle]

Looking at the vote record, I think Flash + Kakarroto could make sense.

D1: Flash votes Damo with 9 minutes to go, which could be a weak bid to save EMC. Kak sits on Jamie, nice and out of the way.

D2: Flash busses Kak, but is the only vote on Kak the whole day, and then he sits there at EOD, safely out of the way of what we now know was a TvT lynch. Kak piles on Bozo at the last minute.

D3: Flash sits on Kalel, and I pointed out previously why Kakarroto's D3 votes are scummy.

Say you don't get your wish to lynch me today, you would vote for Kak? You think Kalel is town?

There are 5 hours left in the Day, so plenty of time for wishes to come true.

But yes, Kak is an option. The problem is that I keep looking at you, Kak, Kalel, and Bunny, but I am having trouble rectifying any three of you into a scum team that doesn't have inconsistencies. So it may be only two of you, and then one of the Bob, Food, and Kit (being the most likely, especially with her disappearance today).

[Foxcastle]

I think you are scum, but if I am wrong I want to see what we may agree on. Again, we need at least a tie today to not lose (preferably of course we lynch scum).

Why aim for a tie over just a no-lynch?

[flash2015]

I think you are scum, but if I am wrong I want to see what we may agree on. Again, we need at least a tie today to not lose (preferably of course we lynch scum).

Why aim for a tie over just a no-lynch?

If I understand correctly, if we are at 5 - 3 the following can happen:
(1) We lynch scum or we tie (one townie votes wrong) - we live for another day - YAY
(3) We mislynch, we lose - BOO!

If we are at 4 - 3 we can either:

(1) Lynch scum - we live for another day - YAY
(2) Mislynch or tie - we lose - BOO

So the argument for no NO LYNCH today is because it allows one townie to screw up and we still survive. What do you think?

[Foxcastle]

I think you are scum, but if I am wrong I want to see what we may agree on. Again, we need at least a tie today to not lose (preferably of course we lynch scum).

Why aim for a tie over just a no-lynch?

If I understand correctly, if we are at 5 - 3 the following can happen:
(1) We lynch scum or we tie (one townie votes wrong) - we live for another day - YAY
(3) We mislynch, we lose - BOO!

If we are at 4 - 3 we can either:

(1) Lynch scum - we live for another day - YAY
(2) Mislynch or tie - we lose - BOO

So the argument for no NO LYNCH today is because it allows one townie to screw up and we still survive. What do you think?

I'm more curious why you're talking about a tie rather than no-lynch. I see the point about 5-3 being more room for error than 4-3. But if you think there's going to be any way to swing a tie at the last minute, you should really know better.

[Foxcastle]

Kalel on D1 pushed Bob (moving off of EMC, which he got on in favor of the policy lynch) at a critical moment when the EMC wagon was gaining steam (2 hours out). It could be an effort to save EMC, and since the Bob wagon was always a close runner up, he would have felt stuck.

On D2, he sits on Brainbomb and doesn't move.

On D3, he tries for Bob again at an opportunistic moment, then moves to flash, then to Damo, but he's a contending wagon throughout, so... saving yourself is not scummy.

There's not really a clear spot for Flash in that narrative, but there could be for Kalel on D3...

[Kitsune]

We haven't seen Kit in over a day. She laid down a vote on Kak and left. Who does that at MiLo (or Mylo)? That doesn't feel very towny. Isn't she in Australia? If she is town will she have time to interact before EOD (it is now 2:14am in Sydney).

Don't worry, I'm back. I had planned to come on later yesterday, but... frankly I was a little disheartened at that point and just went to bed after I got home from work.

I feel we've probably lost this, but I'm not ready to give up yet and I came back with a new idea on how to sift through the last few days based on other players having similar experiences to mine and their activity trends through the game. I feel wpd is the best measure for this, given it corrects for play style of lots of short posts or less posts that are longer.

Building my matrix, I'm looking at:

D1/N1/D2/N2/D3/N3/D4 to now

BobMcBob 1464/1006/353.5/108/543/52/175
BunnyGo 382.5/1033/939/310/935.5/354/833
flash2015 94.5/116/58.5/62/231/214/676.5
foodcoats 475.5/497/289/691/1048.5/22/1136.5
Foxcastle 494/194/561.5/163/462.5/283/698.5
Kakarroto 1301.5/85/584.5/1303/844/542/353
KalelChase491.5/693/499/182/253/830/337
Kitsune 968/559/133.5/539/1275.5/519/54

PS: Noticing with a wry smile that we seem to have specialised into 2 Bs, 3 Fs and 3 Ks in our remaining players.

[Kitsune]

Communication trend reads:

BobMcBob: High initial engagement per day, slowly dropping off. Reads Town.
BunnyGo: Erratic engagement. Peaks N1-D2, then D3 and D4. Suggests Scumlean (low night activity, high day activity).
flash2015: Very low initial engagement, builds up to an incredible spike D4. Feels like scum surging for end game. Scum.
foodcoats: Medium initial engagement, weird drop on N3 and back to normal Day trends on D4. Townlean.
Foxcastle: Medium initial engagement, builds slowly. Scumlean communication cadence (low night activity, high day activity).
Kakarroto: High initial engagement (D1 nonsense from memory), dips N1 and then remains fairly consistent after that, dropping off D4. Town?
KalelChase: Medium engagement D1-D2, then a spike N3. Dropping off D4 which suggests they share my despondency at this point. Town?
Kitsune: High initial engagement with a low on D2, then moderate-to-high until my Day 4 slump. Town.

[Kitsune]

Scummiest communication trends (in order) are:

Flash2015
BunnyGo
Foxcastle

##vote Flash2015

I'll be online again just before EoD (hopefully an hour before) to consider everyone's final reads, but I find flash's activity surge very indicative.

I would be surprised if we don't find 2 of 3 scum in the above reads.

[KalelChase]

Looking at the vote record, I think Flash + Kakarroto could make sense.

D1: Flash votes Damo with 9 minutes to go, which could be a weak bid to save EMC. Kak sits on Jamie, nice and out of the way.

D2: Flash busses Kak, but is the only vote on Kak the whole day, and then he sits there at EOD, safely out of the way of what we now know was a TvT lynch. Kak piles on Bozo at the last minute.

D3: Flash sits on Kalel, and I pointed out previously why Kakarroto's D3 votes are scummy.

Interesting. I could still see Kak.

@Kalel: under the hypothesis that I am town (something I know) and that you are town (something you claim to know and I’ll posit for this question) why did nobody lynch me or Bob day 1?

You've asked this before and I've answered.

Short answer, I don't know.

Longer conspiracy theory, if I was scum on a 4 person team with EMC (who's been known to draw policy lynch, obnoxious lynch and modkills and therefore likely to go fairly soon anyway). Then the pay-off of lynching them D1 is actually pretty huge. Even if I was a newbie scum if I saw my other two teammates on there I'd either be comfortable either joining them, or going hide on a 1-2 vote wagon. I obviously don't know if this is the reason, but it's the only one I've got that makes sense to me.

And sorry to follow-up again Bunny, but since you had me looking at D1... the wagon on you for D1 consists of a lot of really experienced players that have all turned out to be Town. A bit of a minus, however, reading their weak rational and knowing it's D1 it's not as strong as it could be.

[BunnyGo]

Scummiest communication trends (in order) are:

Flash2015
BunnyGo
Foxcastle

##vote Flash2015

I'll be online again just before EoD (hopefully an hour before) to consider everyone's final reads, but I find flash's activity surge very indicative.

I would be surprised if we don't find 2 of 3 scum in the above reads.

Jesus, Kit. This is the most noisy and useless analysis I’ve ever seen from you. What sort of scum are you?

[BunnyGo]

Looking at the vote record, I think Flash + Kakarroto could make sense.

D1: Flash votes Damo with 9 minutes to go, which could be a weak bid to save EMC. Kak sits on Jamie, nice and out of the way.

D2: Flash busses Kak, but is the only vote on Kak the whole day, and then he sits there at EOD, safely out of the way of what we now know was a TvT lynch. Kak piles on Bozo at the last minute.

D3: Flash sits on Kalel, and I pointed out previously why Kakarroto's D3 votes are scummy.

Interesting. I could still see Kak.

@Kalel: under the hypothesis that I am town (something I know) and that you are town (something you claim to know and I’ll posit for this question) why did nobody lynch me or Bob day 1?

You've asked this before and I've answered.

Short answer, I don't know.

Longer conspiracy theory, if I was scum on a 4 person team with EMC (who's been known to draw policy lynch, obnoxious lynch and modkills and therefore likely to go fairly soon anyway). Then the pay-off of lynching them D1 is actually pretty huge. Even if I was a newbie scum if I saw my other two teammates on there I'd either be comfortable either joining them, or going hide on a 1-2 vote wagon. I obviously don't know if this is the reason, but it's the only one I've got that makes sense to me.

And sorry to follow-up again Bunny, but since you had me looking at D1... the wagon on you for D1 consists of a lot of really experienced players that have all turned out to be Town. A bit of a minus, however, reading their weak rational and knowing it's D1 it's not as strong as it could be.

And EMC...

[KalelChase]

Looking at the vote record, I think Flash + Kakarroto could make sense.

D1: Flash votes Damo with 9 minutes to go, which could be a weak bid to save EMC. Kak sits on Jamie, nice and out of the way.

D2: Flash busses Kak, but is the only vote on Kak the whole day, and then he sits there at EOD, safely out of the way of what we now know was a TvT lynch. Kak piles on Bozo at the last minute.

D3: Flash sits on Kalel, and I pointed out previously why Kakarroto's D3 votes are scummy.

Say you don't get your wish to lynch me today, you would vote for Kak? You think Kalel is town?

There are 5 hours left in the Day, so plenty of time for wishes to come true.

But yes, Kak is an option. The problem is that I keep looking at you, Kak, Kalel, and Bunny, but I am having trouble rectifying any three of you into a scum team that doesn't have inconsistencies. So it may be only two of you, and then one of the Bob, Food, and Kit (being the most likely, especially with her disappearance today).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mw3obMuTzM

[BunnyGo]

Say you don't get your wish to lynch me today, you would vote for Kak? You think Kalel is town?

There are 5 hours left in the Day, so plenty of time for wishes to come true.

But yes, Kak is an option. The problem is that I keep looking at you, Kak, Kalel, and Bunny, but I am having trouble rectifying any three of you into a scum team that doesn't have inconsistencies. So it may be only two of you, and then one of the Bob, Food, and Kit (being the most likely, especially with her disappearance today).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mw3obMuTzM

What star are we wishing on?

[flash2015]

I have seen puddles deeper than Kit's analysis...

[KalelChase]

There are 5 hours left in the Day, so plenty of time for wishes to come true.

But yes, Kak is an option. The problem is that I keep looking at you, Kak, Kalel, and Bunny, but I am having trouble rectifying any three of you into a scum team that doesn't have inconsistencies. So it may be only two of you, and then one of the Bob, Food, and Kit (being the most likely, especially with her disappearance today).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mw3obMuTzM

What star are we wishing on?

My scientific mind... Polaris
My magic mind... Venus

Bun - I am open to my scum read on you to be a building snowball of confirmation bias, but at least there's something there. I don't have much other than gut on others.
Kit's been 'absent' which is bad, but she did say she was going to be busy (as I did as well) up front.
I haven't been tracking the F'ers as distinctly as I should have been, but in the interested of having a possibility of avoiding a mislynch at this time I'm going to

##Vote Flash

Try and be back on in 2 hours.

'm getting the F/F/Fs confused constantly.

[KalelChase]

Bob and Food... you're our only hope.