MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]

[Chaqa]

Well, from my perspective, this game is (mostly) solved if damo is still town. That means Fox is Assassin, Tem is RP, xorx is town, etc.

If damo isn’t town, it’s a little more dicey.

I’ll try to dig into Bunny’s posts about Reavers a bit more, but I have a hunch that he was converted Night 2 after a failed attempt night 1

Or converted Night 3 after a failed attempt night 2. But yes, conversion after a failed attempt makes sense.

I'm hoping with two confirmed Reavers we have a better shot at figuring out the posting rules. Bunny was one of those who posted before the p181 violation, right?

[Chaqa]

##Call GM:

1. Please see my previous call regarding if an Assassin turns Reaver
2. If a Reaver has been revealed by a Level 2 Violation, would they still be subject/trigger future violations, or not?

[Chaqa]

Losing just a Reaver last night was game-changing from a math/LYLO perspective. We have a lot more leeway now. We only have three left to lynch, and eliminating one of those gives us even more time. Now:

D6: 7-1-2-0

Scenario 1: Lynch Temasek
N6: 7-1-1-0 (damo reports Fox scan)
D7: 5-1-1-0 (lose two town PR)
N7: 5-0-1-0 (lynch Foxcastle)
N8: 4-0-1-0 (lose town PR or VT)
D8: 4-0-1-0 - at this point we start lynching to find Reavers. Have two shots at it.

Scenario 2a: Lynch peterlund and he's town
N6: 6-1-2-0 (damo reports Fox scan)
D7: 4-1-2-0 (lynch based on damo scans)
N7: 4-0-2-0 (lose PR)
D8: 3-0-2-0 (lynch Temasek)
N8: 3-0-1-0 (lose town)
D9: 2-0-1-0 (one chance to lynch Reaver)

Scenario 2a: Lynch peterlund and he's Reaver
N6: 7-1-1-0 (damo reports Fox scan)
D7: 5-1-1-0 (lynch Temasek)
N7: 5-1-0-0 (lose town PR)
D8: 4-1-0-0 (lynch based on damo's scan) - Have two shots at finding Assassin.

Scenario 3a: Lynch Foxcastle and he's Assassin
N6: 7-0-2-0 (damo reports scan)
D7: 6-0-2-0 (lynch Temasek)
N7: 6-0-1-0 (lose town)
D8: 5-0-1-0 (two shots if a no-lynch used before first or second)

Scenario 3b: Lynch Foxcastle and he's VT - this one is only valid if you're not me (and therefore don't KNOW Fox is assassin unless damo is lying) or if damo is lying
N6: 6-1-2-0 (damo reports scan
D7: 4-1-2-0 (lynch Chaqa)
N7: 4-0-2-0 (lose town)
D8: 3-0-2-0 (lynch Temasek)
N8: 3-0-1-0
D8: 2-0-1-0 (one chance to lynch Reaver)

So it's clear to me, lynching Foxcastle is the best play, but for the rest of town, the worst-case is worse than the worst case of lynching Temasek today. Additionally, lynching Fox today is worse in the event damo is scum and has been lying about his scans. In that scenario, we should lynch Temasek now.

##Vote Temasek22

[Jamiet99uk]

Actions update:

D1:
xorxes revealed as Captain
damo reads Flav as town
Town lynches Flav (VT)

N1:
peter shoots Tom's bulletproof
dargo watches xorxes, sees Jamiet visit
Jamiet protects xorxes
Tom protects bozo
Superstition doesn't roleblock anyone
teacon redirects to rivera
rivera doesn't redirect
worcej kills rivera (directly or indirectly)
Kalel roleblocks ??????
Investigator investigates ?????
Reaver Prime (Temasek) visits ??????

D2:
Town lynches Hosuke (Companion)
damo reads ND (VT)

N2:
ND didn't roleblock anyone
dargo watches xorxes, noone visits
Jamiet protects and saves dargo
worcej fails to kill dargo
Tom protects damo
Kalel roleblocks damo
Investigator investigates ??????
Reaver Prime (Temasek) visits ??????

D3:
Town lynches Kalel (Mafia Roleblocker)
damo roleblocked

N3:
ND roleblocks goldie
dargo watches himself, Tom protects him
Tom protects dargo
Jamiet protects someone who is not attacked
worcej kills bozo
Investigator investigates ??????
Reaver Prime (Temasek) visits ??????

D4:
Town lynches worcej (Mafia Agent)
damo reads Temasek (Reaver Prime)
Temasek revealed by GM as part of Reavers

N4:
ND roleblocks Temasek but is assassinated
Jamiet tries to save ND
dargo watches damo and sees noone visit him
Temasek kills Tom
Assassin kills ND

D5:
Town lynches goldfinger (BH)
damo reads emc (VT)

N6:
Jamiet protects xorxes
dargo watches Jamiet and sees noone visit him
Assassin kills Bunny (Pilot - REAVERED)
Temasek holds his kill

The person I protected N3 was myself, for the record.

[Temasek22]

How?

[Temasek22]

The one variable I could not account for. ##vote fox

[Temasek22]

Losing just a Reaver last night was game-changing from a math/LYLO perspective. We have a lot more leeway now. We only have three left to lynch, and eliminating one of those gives us even more time. Now:

D6: 7-1-2-0

Scenario 1: Lynch Temasek
N6: 7-1-1-0 (damo reports Fox scan)
D7: 5-1-1-0 (lose two town PR)
N7: 5-0-1-0 (lynch Foxcastle)
N8: 4-0-1-0 (lose town PR or VT)
D8: 4-0-1-0 - at this point we start lynching to find Reavers. Have two shots at it.

Scenario 2a: Lynch peterlund and he's town
N6: 6-1-2-0 (damo reports Fox scan)
D7: 4-1-2-0 (lynch based on damo scans)
N7: 4-0-2-0 (lose PR)
D8: 3-0-2-0 (lynch Temasek)
N8: 3-0-1-0 (lose town)
D9: 2-0-1-0 (one chance to lynch Reaver)

Scenario 2a: Lynch peterlund and he's Reaver
N6: 7-1-1-0 (damo reports Fox scan)
D7: 5-1-1-0 (lynch Temasek)
N7: 5-1-0-0 (lose town PR)
D8: 4-1-0-0 (lynch based on damo's scan) - Have two shots at finding Assassin.

Scenario 3a: Lynch Foxcastle and he's Assassin
N6: 7-0-2-0 (damo reports scan)
D7: 6-0-2-0 (lynch Temasek)
N7: 6-0-1-0 (lose town)
D8: 5-0-1-0 (two shots if a no-lynch used before first or second)

Scenario 3b: Lynch Foxcastle and he's VT - this one is only valid if you're not me (and therefore don't KNOW Fox is assassin unless damo is lying) or if damo is lying
N6: 6-1-2-0 (damo reports scan
D7: 4-1-2-0 (lynch Chaqa)
N7: 4-0-2-0 (lose town)
D8: 3-0-2-0 (lynch Temasek)
N8: 3-0-1-0
D8: 2-0-1-0 (one chance to lynch Reaver)

So it's clear to me, lynching Foxcastle is the best play, but for the rest of town, the worst-case is worse than the worst case of lynching Temasek today. Additionally, lynching Fox today is worse in the event damo is scum and has been lying about his scans. In that scenario, we should lynch Temasek now.

##Vote Temasek22

Go with your best play

[Temasek22]

Sigh.

[xorxes]

##Call GM:

1. Please see my previous call regarding if an Assassin turns Reaver
2. If a Reaver has been revealed by a Level 2 Violation, would they still be subject/trigger future violations, or not?

1. is now moot because the Assassin cannot have been reavered. Jamiet claims to have protected ND the night ND was killed. Therefore either the Assassin is not reavered because Jamiet is telling the truth, or the Assassin is not reavered because Jamiet was reavered. Either way, Assassin was not reavered.

2. Good question.

[xorxes]

@Tem, can you do a violation so we can test 2?

[xorxes]

Actions update:

D1:
xorxes revealed as Captain
damo reads Flav as town
Town lynches Flav (VT)

N1:
peter shoots Tom's bulletproof
dargo watches xorxes, sees Jamiet visit
Jamiet protects xorxes
Tom protects bozo
Superstition doesn't roleblock anyone
teacon redirects to rivera
rivera doesn't redirect
worcej kills rivera (directly or indirectly)
Kalel roleblocks ??????
Investigator investigates ?????
Reaver Prime (Temasek) visits ??????

D2:
Town lynches Hosuke (Companion)
damo reads ND (VT)

N2:
ND didn't roleblock anyone
dargo watches xorxes, noone visits
Jamiet protects and saves dargo
worcej fails to kill dargo
Tom protects damo
Kalel roleblocks damo
Investigator investigates ??????
Reaver Prime (Temasek) visits ??????

D3:
Town lynches Kalel (Mafia Roleblocker)
damo roleblocked

N3:
ND roleblocks goldie
dargo watches himself, Tom protects him
Tom protects dargo
Jamiet protects someone who is not attacked
worcej kills bozo
Investigator investigates ??????
Reaver Prime (Temasek) visits ??????

D4:
Town lynches worcej (Mafia Agent)
damo reads Temasek (Reaver Prime)
Temasek revealed by GM as part of Reavers

N4:
ND roleblocks Temasek but is assassinated
Jamiet tries to save ND
dargo watches damo and sees noone visit him
Temasek kills Tom
Assassin kills ND

D5:
Town lynches goldfinger (BH)
damo reads emc (VT)

N6:
Jamiet protects xorxes
dargo watches Jamiet and sees noone visit him
Assassin kills Bunny (Pilot - REAVERED)
Temasek holds his kill

The person I protected N3 was myself, for the record.

Yeah, that was an odd choice. Probably the least informative possible choice, and a very unlikely NK target.

[damo666]

Losing just a Reaver last night was game-changing from a math/LYLO perspective. We have a lot more leeway now. We only have three left to lynch, and eliminating one of those gives us even more time. Now:

D6: 7-1-2-0

Scenario 1: Lynch Temasek
N6: 7-1-1-0 (damo reports Fox scan)
D7: 5-1-1-0 (lose two town PR)
N7: 5-0-1-0 (lynch Foxcastle)
N8: 4-0-1-0 (lose town PR or VT)
D8: 4-0-1-0 - at this point we start lynching to find Reavers. Have two shots at it.

Scenario 2a: Lynch peterlund and he's town
N6: 6-1-2-0 (damo reports Fox scan)
D7: 4-1-2-0 (lynch based on damo scans)
N7: 4-0-2-0 (lose PR)
D8: 3-0-2-0 (lynch Temasek)
N8: 3-0-1-0 (lose town)
D9: 2-0-1-0 (one chance to lynch Reaver)

Scenario 2a: Lynch peterlund and he's Reaver
N6: 7-1-1-0 (damo reports Fox scan)
D7: 5-1-1-0 (lynch Temasek)
N7: 5-1-0-0 (lose town PR)
D8: 4-1-0-0 (lynch based on damo's scan) - Have two shots at finding Assassin.

Scenario 3a: Lynch Foxcastle and he's Assassin
N6: 7-0-2-0 (damo reports scan)
D7: 6-0-2-0 (lynch Temasek)
N7: 6-0-1-0 (lose town)
D8: 5-0-1-0 (two shots if a no-lynch used before first or second)

Scenario 3b: Lynch Foxcastle and he's VT - this one is only valid if you're not me (and therefore don't KNOW Fox is assassin unless damo is lying) or if damo is lying
N6: 6-1-2-0 (damo reports scan
D7: 4-1-2-0 (lynch Chaqa)
N7: 4-0-2-0 (lose town)
D8: 3-0-2-0 (lynch Temasek)
N8: 3-0-1-0
D8: 2-0-1-0 (one chance to lynch Reaver)

So it's clear to me, lynching Foxcastle is the best play, but for the rest of town, the worst-case is worse than the worst case of lynching Temasek today. Additionally, lynching Fox today is worse in the event damo is scum and has been lying about his scans. In that scenario, we should lynch Temasek now.

##Vote Temasek22

Scenario 2a is wrong. Lynch Peter who is town he then shoots Temasek. 7120 6120 6110 4110 4010 3010 but still prefer lynching Tem

[damo666]

If my scan does not reveal a Reaver and we lynch Assassin tomorrow then the last remaining Reaver must be one of Peter Teacon Jamie (and I assume all 3 will still be then living).

The rest of us should discuss which is most likely to determine lynch order before we get bumped off. We will have 2 chances I think.

Are all 3 in at least one of the possible violations candidates lists.

[damo666]

OK. Hoping GMs will allow me to change.

I suppose it could go the other way as well. Fox's interrogation of Chaqa about the Reavers was kind of weird. I need to reread it.

Ideal scenario is that you hit the jackpot and read one of them as Reaver. Then it's autowin.

I should read the one out of the pair considered least likely to be Assassin. Sound odd but...
I get a Reaver read it's game over.
I get a VT read, the other is Assassin and last Reaver is a PR.
I get Assassin the last Reaver could be PR OR the other one, hence worst outcome ironically. I am reading Chaqa.

[damo666]

@Fox, do town a favour and kill Jamie tonight.

[Chaqa]

I suppose it could go the other way as well. Fox's interrogation of Chaqa about the Reavers was kind of weird. I need to reread it.

Ideal scenario is that you hit the jackpot and read one of them as Reaver. Then it's autowin.

I should read the one out of the pair considered least likely to be Assassin. Sound odd but...
I get a Reaver read it's game over.
I get a VT read, the other is Assassin and last Reaver is a PR.
I get Assassin the last Reaver could be PR OR the other one, hence worst outcome ironically. I am reading Chaqa.

I’d prefer you read Fox, if it’s all the same. I’m not a Reaver or Assassin.

[Chaqa]

Ah yeah my math forgot the peter shot.

##END

Temasek is the lynch and damo has a scan in. GG, just a matter of time

[damo666]

Ideal scenario is that you hit the jackpot and read one of them as Reaver. Then it's autowin.

I should read the one out of the pair considered least likely to be Assassin. Sound odd but...
I get a Reaver read it's game over.
I get a VT read, the other is Assassin and last Reaver is a PR.
I get Assassin the last Reaver could be PR OR the other one, hence worst outcome ironically. I am reading Chaqa.

I’d prefer you read Fox, if it’s all the same. I’m not a Reaver or Assassin.

Chaqa from our pov if I read Fox and he returns Assassin as you predict we do not know that you are not Reaver. If I read you and you return VT we still know Fox is Assassin.

[damo666]

Ah yeah my math forgot the peter shot.

##END

Temasek is the lynch and damo has a scan in. GG, just a matter of time

Who do you think most likely Reaver?

[Chaqa]

Ah yeah my math forgot the peter shot.

##END

Temasek is the lynch and damo has a scan in. GG, just a matter of time

Who do you think most likely Reaver?

You or Jamie or peter.

I can’t figure out why the Assassin didn’t kill you last night. My best hypothesis atm is that it’s because you’re the last Reaver and the Assassin is actually EMC, who you cleared as an olive branch type thing.

I figure the Assassin would have been forced to kill you otherwise, as you getting today’s scan off means they (Fox) would be toast. So why kill Bunny?

It could just be Fox!Assassin not paying attention, though, but it seems obvious to me the Assassin essentially conceded by not killing you.