MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]

[goldfinger0303]

A wise man would already know my remaining bounties and schedule the lunch around them

[damo666]

A wise man would already know my remaining bounties and schedule the lunch around them

You're today's lumch

[goldfinger0303]

To everyone else.

Damo's plan hinges on the fact that both he and Bunny are not the reavers. If either of them are, town will lose. All it takes is for Reaver!damo to misdirect the assassin lynch tomorrow and the Reaver team has a near-guaranteed win.

[BunnyGo]

A wise man would already know my remaining bounties and schedule the lunch around them

You're today's lumch

I appreciate the typo of the typo.

[damo666]

To everyone else.

Damo's plan hinges on the fact that both he and Bunny are not the reavers. If either of them are, town will lose. All it takes is for Reaver!damo to misdirect the assassin lynch tomorrow and the Reaver team has a near-guaranteed win.

Correct. Town cannot win without taking a risk. Bunny is less than 50% likely to have been Reavered so it's a smaller risk than a 50/50 guess on the Assassin (which at the moment is 1 in 3 even assuming you are BH.

Sorry you cannot talk yourself out of this. You are today's lynch.

[BunnyGo]

To everyone else.

Damo's plan hinges on the fact that both he and Bunny are not the reavers. If either of them are, town will lose. All it takes is for Reaver!damo to misdirect the assassin lynch tomorrow and the Reaver team has a near-guaranteed win.

Correct. Town cannot win without taking a risk. Bunny is less than 50% likely to have been Reavered so it's a smaller risk than a 50/50 guess on the Assassin (which at the moment is 1 in 3 even assuming you are BH.

Sorry you cannot talk yourself out of this. You are today's lynch.

Have you remembered to put in your order?

[goldfinger0303]

Assuming that you are factoring in the fact that you know you're not reavered, there's a 40% chance Bunny is a Reaver. You're right that's less than 50. However, I would argue that peterlund is very likely not a Reaver target. Town N1 formulated a plan to lynch Peter and have him take his shot. Tem probably would not have targeted him for this reason. That puts it at a 50/50.

However from everyone else's perspective, the chances of you or bunny being Reaver is over 50 percent, not factoring in the Peter guess.

Technically, we also don't know if both reavers are PR claimants. One could be in the Chaqa/emc/Fox group with the assassin. I personally feel like this is unlikely, but you never know.

[goldfinger0303]

But damo, from the perspective of everyone that's not you and Bunny, the chance that either of you are reavered is 60%. Therefore, statistically, relying on a plan that hinges on both of you is less likely to lead to a town win than lynching in the scum pool.

Everyone else should be doing some....idk, actual analysis, on who the assassin is. Other than blindly relying on the fact that damo is good. There hasn't been enough work on actually reading people this game. It's just been all mechanics, and scum have been skating by on that this whole time.

[e.m.c^42]

But damo, from the perspective of everyone that's not you and Bunny, the chance that either of you are reavered is 60%. Therefore, statistically, relying on a plan that hinges on both of you is less likely to lead to a town win than lynching in the scum pool.

Everyone else should be doing some....idk, actual analysis, on who the assassin is. Other than blindly relying on the fact that damo is good. There hasn't been enough work on actually reading people this game. It's just been all mechanics, and scum have been skating by on that this whole time.

vecna tropes says it's fox, lol

[Chaqa]

The Assassin is almost certainly EMC, I've already laid a case out for it, and I'd be quite disappointed if Damo isn't scanning him today.

Everyone is worried about scum throwing to the BH, but why wouldn't they be worried about us throwing to the BH? I think scum has a need to kill goldie if we don't.

We can't be sure anyone isn't Reaver besides xorxes, but tonight Bunny can commute Temasek (or the Assassin if damo gets a scan on him).

[goldfinger0303]

Aww, Chaqa I knew my memory of you was correct. You shine in the late game.

[damo666]

A wise man would already know my remaining bounties and schedule the lunch around them

You're today's lumch

I appreciate the typo of the typo.

Lol

[damo666]

To everyone else.

Damo's plan hinges on the fact that both he and Bunny are not the reavers. If either of them are, town will lose. All it takes is for Reaver!damo to misdirect the assassin lynch tomorrow and the Reaver team has a near-guaranteed win.

Correct. Town cannot win without taking a risk. Bunny is less than 50% likely to have been Reavered so it's a smaller risk than a 50/50 guess on the Assassin (which at the moment is 1 in 3 even assuming you are BH.

Sorry you cannot talk yourself out of this. You are today's lynch.

Have you remembered to put in your order?

Yes

[damo666]

To everyone else.

Damo's plan hinges on the fact that both he and Bunny are not the reavers. If either of them are, town will lose. All it takes is for Reaver!damo to misdirect the assassin lynch tomorrow and the Reaver team has a near-guaranteed win.

Correct. Town cannot win without taking a risk. Bunny is less than 50% likely to have been Reavered so it's a smaller risk than a 50/50 guess on the Assassin (which at the moment is 1 in 3 even assuming you are BH.

Sorry you cannot talk yourself out of this. You are today's lynch.

Have you remembered to put in your order?

Have you remembered yours?

[e.m.c^42]

The Assassin is almost certainly EMC, I've already laid a case out for it, and I'd be quite disappointed if Damo isn't scanning him today.

Everyone is worried about scum throwing to the BH, but why wouldn't they be worried about us throwing to the BH? I think scum has a need to kill goldie if we don't.

We can't be sure anyone isn't Reaver besides xorxes, but tonight Bunny can commute Temasek (or the Assassin if damo gets a scan on him).

I'm vaguely offended you would think I'd be so pathetic as scum :>

this type of gelatinous waffle only shines as town, stomp me down the drain babe

[damo666]

The Assassin is almost certainly EMC, I've already laid a case out for it, and I'd be quite disappointed if Damo isn't scanning him today.

Everyone is worried about scum throwing to the BH, but why wouldn't they be worried about us throwing to the BH? I think scum has a need to kill goldie if we don't.

We can't be sure anyone isn't Reaver besides xorxes, but tonight Bunny can commute Temasek (or the Assassin if damo gets a scan on him).

I'm pretty confident well be lynching 1 of 2 people tomorrow.

[Jamiet99uk]

A wise man would already know my remaining bounties and schedule the lunch around them

You're today's lumch

The correct spelling is "lymch"

[damo666]

* we'll

[damo666]

The Assassin is almost certainly EMC, I've already laid a case out for it, and I'd be quite disappointed if Damo isn't scanning him today.

Everyone is worried about scum throwing to the BH, but why wouldn't they be worried about us throwing to the BH? I think scum has a need to kill goldie if we don't.

We can't be sure anyone isn't Reaver besides xorxes, but tonight Bunny can commute Temasek (or the Assassin if damo gets a scan on him).

Hold on. Why are you voting Fox then?

[Chaqa]

Correct. Town cannot win without taking a risk. Bunny is less than 50% likely to have been Reavered so it's a smaller risk than a 50/50 guess on the Assassin (which at the moment is 1 in 3 even assuming you are BH.

Sorry you cannot talk yourself out of this. You are today's lynch.

Have you remembered to put in your order?

Yes

On EMC (or at least Fox) I hope.

Please don't waste a scan on me. I want us to win this game.