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Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:30 pm
by bozotheclown
With worse case NKs, the SK could win by N8 whether he kills all females or not:
N4: 3 town NKed
D5: 8-3-1-1, lynch last Moriarty
N5: 2 town NKed
D6: 6-3-1, lynch mafia
N6: 2 town NKed
D7: 4-2-1, lynch mafia
N7: 2 town NKed
D8: 2-1-1, lynch mafia
N8 1 town NKed
SK wins
If we lynch the last Moriarty mafia or the SK D5, and the other by D7, we can win with worse case NKs:
N4: 3 town NKed
D5: 8-3-1-1, lynch last Moriarty or SK
N5: 2 town NKed
D6: 6-3-1, lynch mafia
N6: 2 town NKed
D7: 4-2-1, lynch last Moriarty or SK
N7: 1 town NKed
D8: 3-2, lynch mafia
N8 1 town NKed
D9: 2-1, lynch mafia
town wins
If we have any more mislynches, though, we will need failed NKs to have a chance to win.
Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 2:00 pm
by Vecna
xorxes wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:21 am
From Mafia1 QT:
BionicMole: lol, how on earth did I survive that?
Kill xorxes
From Mafia2 QT:
dargo: Can we kill xorxes already, please?
Vecna: It will look suspicious if he's killed before me.
bozo: He knows I'm not a VT, I will be forced to cc the Urchin if he is still alive.
Vecna: All right then.
Kill xorxes
From Jack QT:
Flav: I think I will kill someone random just to confuse everyone. Let's see, eenie, meenie, miney, moe,
kill xorxes
Probably more accurate if you replace all instances of xorxes with vecna
Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 3:00 pm
by purplecow
xorxes wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:21 am
From Mafia1 QT:
BionicMole: lol, how on earth did I survive that?
Kill xorxes
From Mafia2 QT:
dargo: Can we kill xorxes already, please?
Vecna: It will look suspicious if he's killed before me.
bozo: He knows I'm not a VT, I will be forced to cc the Urchin if he is still alive.
Vecna: All right then.
Kill xorxes
From Jack QT:
Flav: I think I will kill someone random just to confuse everyone. Let's see, eenie, meenie, miney, moe,
kill xorxes
I find this really funny for some reason.
Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 4:24 pm
by KalelChase
e.m.c^42 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:39 pm
KalelChase wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:36 pm
CmdrLikely wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:34 pm
Really, gang? Actually, I admit that I would have considered a Kit lynch, but I don't think I would have jumped on that wagon.
I'd be interested to analyze after this game is over how many times the wagon changes in the last hour and if that was beneficial for town or for maf...
This is an interesting point. I'm going to go be depressed and follow Flavs advice of no talking.
Tom - I'll probably be on doing some data mining so don't get paranoid.
No, please don't go silent lol
Check... back on. Read through... here's a few comments.
Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 4:31 pm
by KalelChase
Vecna wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:33 pm
KalelChase wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:31 pm
e.m.c^42 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:19 pm
The problem with Kalel is that I have difficulties parsing his "data dump" posts. Can't easily tell if he's just bs'ing stuff on the spot or actually putting thought into it.
The weights are hard for two reasons.
First, from a relationship perspective it's hard to put a weight on an interaction until one of the roles is at least hardclaimed (I'm not good at crumb pick-ups yet). I give + for challenging others, or bringing up a new investigative topic, but pocketing, bussing, etc. are harder to nail-down.
Second, some behaviors (Overposting noise & Claiming you're the cop and you guilty read someone) initially seemed to me to be very scummy. This was reinforced by several people saying 'reaction tests' are worthless. However, with ND and Tom in this game I've seen it work.
Ultimately, the spreadsheet is probably going to be a failure because it's like anonymous gunboat. It's only half the game (or less). But it helps me because it puts my data out there for others to comment on.
This type of posting is so hard for me to gauge on genuineness though. In my head it reads/sounds like an 80s robot reciting the stock market changes or some nonsense like that.
From a town person id expect at least some shit I can identofy with. Does this person play like thia ebery game?
I have been compared to an 80's robot before. Still play Zork on occasion and used to load games on my commodore 64 by cassette tape.
Can anyone give me anything remotely resembling a case on me that's not 'using the force'? I think the best thing against me is that I seem to be protecting Bionic, and we don't know if I'm right on that or not (including me).
It happened both other games... the more social I am the more I'm scum read. Something I should probably talk about with my therapist.
Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 4:44 pm
by e.m.c^42
KalelChase wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 4:31 pm
Still play Zork on occasion
Fuck yeah! Play any other IF?
Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 4:56 pm
by Chaqa
Did someone say Zork?
Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:36 pm
by dargorygel
Text only hitchhikers' guide?
Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:51 pm
by e.m.c^42
Colossal Cave Adventure? Anchorhead? Zork II?
Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:56 pm
by e.m.c^42
dargorygel wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:36 pm
Text only hitchhikers' guide?
This was so hard lmao, I ended up just using walkthrough and enjoying the writing instead of trying.
Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:02 pm
by e.m.c^42
Should really finish up my response by there is no motivation whatsoever to do so
Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:03 pm
by Vecna
And just with one post my desire to lynch Kalal has slightly lessened
Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:04 pm
by e.m.c^42
And yes, Vecna, Kalel is like this pretty much every game he's played here so far. He's pretty data-oriented in general, albeit communicating the analysis needs some improvement.
Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:05 pm
by Vecna
"some" feels like a bit of an understatement
Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:08 pm
by e.m.c^42
it's so sad, you're more likely than usual to be 3p or scum this game
but dw
I'll defend you against lynching, as long as you survive the night :>
Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:11 pm
by Vecna
Is that directed at me or Kalal?
I have no idea why you'd (or anyone else for that matter) think im anything else but town this game.
Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:17 pm
by e.m.c^42
Vecna wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:11 pm
Is that directed at me or Kalal?
I have no idea why you'd (or anyone else for that matter) think im anything else but town this game.
Obviously you, darlin'
I'm engaging in fun wifom tinfoil
want me to finally write you a wall?
Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:20 pm
by Vecna
Id prefer a poem
Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:22 pm
by Vecna
Actually a wall sounds interesting. Maybe ill give another crack at trying to be able to read you.
Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:24 pm
by xorxes
Vecna wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:28 pm
Tom Bombadil wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:18 pm
I think Kalel turns up when it’s safe to post, safe to vote etc. I think he’s around more than he let’s on. I think this calm “reason?” act is even a very careful response to being voted by me for no apparent reason. I’m quite convinced
Did someone confirm whether the quick kitsune sheep was in line with all the spreadsheet nonsense?
This rings pretty true and I feel I have a solid team B shaping up in my head.
Very curious to hear about that team, hopefully before EON.
What's your read of bozo?