Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

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bozotheclown
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Re: Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

#2881 Post by bozotheclown » Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:26 pm

@rdrivera: I voted for Mean because I did not think her argument was logical that the mafia would NK brain N2 if they were sure he was VT instead of trying to find one of the PRs, especially with the risk of him being watched because of his cop claim.

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Re: Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

#2882 Post by thamrick » Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:02 pm

@Foxcastle - can you explain to me why I shouldn't read EoD4 as you hardcore defending Bo?

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Re: Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

#2883 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:15 pm

thamrick wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:02 pm
@Foxcastle - can you explain to me why I shouldn't read EoD4 as you hardcore defending Bo?
Well, I'm going to quibble with "hardcore" there... "Bo might me scum, but I haven't reached that conclusion myself." That's hardly hardcore defending.

I was scumreading Balki much more strongly, and much more sure of my feelings there, so I had a much stronger preference for that wagon that I was willing to advocate for. I had taken another look at bo_sox, particularly his interaction with Rjm, but didn't scumread him. Looking for a reason to scumreading might have been harder since he wasn't around D1, and his voting record is kinda lame (but with 122, there was plenty of material).

But sure, I did not help lynch Bo yesterday.

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Re: Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

#2884 Post by thamrick » Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:35 pm

Foxcastle wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:15 pm
thamrick wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:02 pm
@Foxcastle - can you explain to me why I shouldn't read EoD4 as you hardcore defending Bo?
Well, I'm going to quibble with "hardcore" there... "Bo might me scum, but I haven't reached that conclusion myself." That's hardly hardcore defending.

I was scumreading Balki much more strongly, and much more sure of my feelings there, so I had a much stronger preference for that wagon that I was willing to advocate for. I had taken another look at bo_sox, particularly his interaction with Rjm, but didn't scumread him. Looking for a reason to scumreading might have been harder since he wasn't around D1, and his voting record is kinda lame (but with 122, there was plenty of material).

But sure, I did not help lynch Bo yesterday.
Well forgive me for sliding you down my townreads because of it.

I'm relatively sure 1 of the remaining scum is in Balki/MLQ. Why wouldn't there be a bigger push as those were much more viable wagons than rdrivera? Still leaning Balki? I tend to lean MLQ but I honestly wouldn't be surprised either way.

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Re: Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

#2885 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:46 pm

I'm devastated, Tham. ;)

If Mean is scum, she's done a fantastic job, in no small part by managing to keep up the perception, through some pretty small slips and oblique ways of seeing things, that she hasn't seen the inside of the Mafia QT. I've documented my townread of her previously.

I'm not sure what your second questions is. Why wouldn't there be a bigger push on what? Mean and Balki? There was on Balki, and Mean was tied with rdrivera at 2 for the last half hour.

I am still ready to vote for Balki, yes.

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Re: Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

#2886 Post by thamrick » Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:03 pm

I'll reread you and reread your points about MLQ's lack of QT insight. Doubt I'll have time before EoN but I'll do it tomorrow when I have more time.

I could probably be convinced to vote Balki. His PR fishing was... fishy :P

But Balki flipping from MLQ to Bo to untie the vote and staying there even when he was the lead wagon is a pretty strong point to Balki.

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Re: Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

#2887 Post by MeanLaQueefa » Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:19 pm

Thing is, balki is always in the right spot to look good when the flip comes. I'm usually in the wrong spot. Where would scum choose to be since they get to make the choice most of the information?

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Re: Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

#2888 Post by Tom Bombadil » Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:27 pm

I'm coming around to Foxy's way of thinking.

And Mean's exasperation towards me seems rather towny

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Re: Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

#2889 Post by thamrick » Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:39 pm

@anyone - given that Bo was on the Yav wagon, I think it's relatively safe to assume he didn't know ND's role (VT or Miller) and was trying to lynch a potential Cop.

Is it more likely that the remaining scum were on the Yav wagon or the ND wagon?

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Re: Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

#2890 Post by Tom Bombadil » Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:45 pm

Truthfully, I think that is the most difficult day to analyze, as it was so confusing - with no scum to protect, they could justify going on either.

D1 and D2 warrant a reread, but I'm feeling lazy and that we are in great shape, so I'm not going to do it before I likely die - I'll make you guys do that.

Especially D1. D1s are the best to analyze - especially when scum flips. Usually that means another wagon was scum, or scum players got cornered into bussing because they townread the other wagon.

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Re: Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

#2891 Post by MeanLaQueefa » Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:51 pm

Tham, scum don't all get on one wagon, they split up.

Balki is another scum, he has to be, he was on the ND wagon. I'd assume the last scum is in deep and would be on the ND wagon as well because it was the easier wagon to skirt around on. This assumption would clear myself, vash, tom and demon. This is an easier assumption for me, knowing my alignment, so the only one who I'm clearing without great justification is vash. This theory would point to the last scum being found in bozo, tham, rdr, ree, and fox, excluding maniac because he's clear. Out of those, the easiest answer to the last scum lies in bozo and ree, and I could also believe tham as a deep scum. Rdr and fox seem less likely to be deep scum to me.

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Re: Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

#2892 Post by Tom Bombadil » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:03 pm

I kind of really think bozo might be godfather.

Like, I claimed cop with some legit breadcrumbs from the first couple posts of the game. And I clearly had a stronger scumread D2 of rj. Then brain comes in and counter claims me with nothing but "inno on bozo."

Two things strike me:

1) brain fakeclaims every game at least 294 times. Why would scum believe him over me - someone who never fakeclaims?

2) I had crumbs. The only reason I would have specific cop crumbs is if were cop, or I were scum setting up a counterclaim or fakeclaim down the road. Brain had no crumbs.

So why did scum kill brain over me?

One theory is that brain was fairly strongly townread where I was not, so they took the safe route because they didn't know which was true - possible.

The theory I like is that they though there WAS A CHANCE, EVEN SMALL that brain was actually cop, and that he actually did scan godfather. Scum lose a player D1, they need to find someone to go deep. Wouldn't scum pounce on the opportunity, even if its just a chance, to softclear bozo to the endgame? Because otherwise, I don't know why they would think brain was cop and not me, the one who doesn't fakeclaim and had actual crumbs.

Thoughts?

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Re: Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

#2893 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:07 pm

MeanLaQueefa wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:19 pm
Thing is, balki is always in the right spot to look good when the flip comes. I'm usually in the wrong spot. Where would scum choose to be since they get to make the choice most of the information?
This is not correct.

On Day 1, I was on the Jamiet wagon. True. I started that wagon.
On Day 2, I was on the Vashta wagon and not on the RJ wagon. So, that's not where Scum Balki wanted to be, right?
On Day 3, I was on the ND wagon, and he flipped VT. So, that's not where Scum Balki wanted to be, right?
On Day 4, I was a decisive vote on the Bo wagon.

So, we have four data points, and I have been in a "good for scum" spot 2/4 times. 50%.

I don't think the facts support your statement that "balki is always in the right spot to look good when the flip comes."

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Re: Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

#2894 Post by Tom Bombadil » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:08 pm

" I'd assume the last scum is in deep and would be on the ND wagon as well because it was the easier wagon to skirt around on. This assumption would clear myself, vash, tom and demon."

I would not clear Vash for this. He has a repuation for being so detached he doesn't know whats going on - he can use that to justify many actions as scum.

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Re: Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

#2895 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:11 pm

Tom Bombadil wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:03 pm
I kind of really think bozo might be godfather.

Like, I claimed cop with some legit breadcrumbs from the first couple posts of the game. And I clearly had a stronger scumread D2 of rj. Then brain comes in and counter claims me with nothing but "inno on bozo."

Two things strike me:

1) brain fakeclaims every game at least 294 times. Why would scum believe him over me - someone who never fakeclaims?

2) I had crumbs. The only reason I would have specific cop crumbs is if were cop, or I were scum setting up a counterclaim or fakeclaim down the road. Brain had no crumbs.

So why did scum kill brain over me?

One theory is that brain was fairly strongly townread where I was not, so they took the safe route because they didn't know which was true - possible.

The theory I like is that they though there WAS A CHANCE, EVEN SMALL that brain was actually cop, and that he actually did scan godfather. Scum lose a player D1, they need to find someone to go deep. Wouldn't scum pounce on the opportunity, even if its just a chance, to softclear bozo to the endgame? Because otherwise, I don't know why they would think brain was cop and not me, the one who doesn't fakeclaim and had actual crumbs.

Thoughts?
I think your analysis makes sense here, though your conclusion goes too far. I think that Bozo is very likely to be Godfather OR Town.

I think that if Bozo is Godfather, scum kills brainbomb there.

If Bozo is Town, scum probably kills brainbomb there too.

I think it makes sense to divide our scum search into two parts, one for the GF and one for the Hooker. And I think we should use all the data available to figure out who can possibly fit into each box and who can fit into either box.

I agree that Bozo is a leading candidate for the GF box.

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Re: Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

#2896 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:12 pm

In the last game, when Bo was also scum, he thought keeping Brain around helped sow confusion. By the time it came time to kill Brain, Bo had been lynched and the prevailing argument was that Brain is actually pretty good at this, and it would be wise to also eliminate a PR claim. I'm not sure that informs us much on what happened N2 here...

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Re: Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

#2897 Post by MeanLaQueefa » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:15 pm

I made a follow up post about this, but it didn't get posted for some reason earlier.

Balki, you would have gotten scrutiny like I did if you were on the yav wagon, ND is definitely where you wanted to be if you're scum, both wagons were town that day so him flipping town is completely irrelevant.

And yes, you didn't bus rjm, but that makes the most sense because rjm was a hard scum to bus because he was the witch, mafia's most powerful role. Bo didn't bus him either.

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Re: Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

#2898 Post by Maniac » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:17 pm

Tom Bombadil wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:03 pm
I kind of really think bozo might be godfather.

.....

Thoughts?
Remember this was very early in the game and before demon was exposed. Scum had to go for their best guess at COP regardless or risk trying to RB him and have the watcher pick off their hooker. If bozo is generally innocent I think scum still want COP dead before he gets lucky.

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Re: Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

#2899 Post by thamrick » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:17 pm

Foxcastle wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:12 pm
In the last game, when Bo was also scum, he thought keeping Brain around helped sow confusion. By the time it came time to kill Brain, Bo had been lynched and the prevailing argument was that Brain is actually pretty good at this, and it would be wise to also eliminate a PR claim. I'm not sure that informs us much on what happened N2 here...
What do you mean?

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Re: Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

#2900 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:19 pm

Let's all which Thamrick a hearty congratulations for finally overtaking Brainbomb's post total, despite his death six days ago! <golf clap>

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