MAFIA 48 -The Gladiator- GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[rdrivera2005]

Ok, finished my analysis, I know most of this was already discussed but I missed most part of EOD and decided to do some digging about it and on how the Prado wagon formed to understand the dynamics.

First vote on Prado was from Vecna during the joke phase and Jamiet joined with another joke vote. They both moved away not longer.
Then Yuuk voted Prado because “I don't know what TrPrado is doing”. He moved away soon.
Then Vapor started the wagon again because “I was excited to discover him only for my enthusiasm to be deflated when I clicked on his content”
Then Xorxes joined because “I can do Prado or RHK, neither one has any content in their posts.” He then just sat on TrP all day long.
Temasek joined the wagon half an hour later, with a convoluted explanation, half joking, half because he was lurking, making it the biggest wagon with 22 hours to EOD.
Then with around 11 hours to EOD Vapor moved away and later Temasek also moved.
At this point Demon and Jamiet are the biggest wagons with 3 votes, so at this point I don't read much on this votes.
Food voted Prado without much explanation around 3 hours before EOD (
Then ItsHosuke and Yuuki wagons start to form. With around one hour to EOD they were tied with 5 votes and Prado is a distant wagon with his two votes.
Then with 0:47 IKe voted Prado quoting an answer from Jamiet to Xorxes telling that TrPrado “isn't going to be today's lynch.“ This make 5 Hosuke, 4 Yukki, 3 Trp.
Then Jamiet followed making it 5 Hosuke, 4 Trp, 3 Yukki.
Next vote was Temasek after flip flopping around (was voting Hosuke, voted Yukki ) telling that he feels Yukki may be town. Now Prado is on the lead 5 x 4 Hosuke and 3 Jamiet.
Ike then move to Jamiet making it 4x4x4, but changed to Food in 5 minutes.
EMC then cast the final Prado vote, because "he didn't like Prado reactions to being a wagon and the reaction testing". This made 5 Prado x 4 Hosuke that will later end in 5 x 3 when Vecna moved to Chaqa.

My analysis over this:
If someone was saved its Hosuke. Yukki wagon was fading with half an hour to go and Yukki could still vote Hosuke (or Prado) to save himself. The fact Yukki voted on Jamiet and later on Chaqa makes me feel he is likely town (I was already townreading him anyway). Jamiet turned into a top wagon after Prado was already at 4-5 votes so he was also not saved.

If Hosuke is town, there is not much to get from the wagon analysis, scum were probably spread between wagons and this could explain an unusually calm EOD. The one to watch in this case I think is Ike, he detaching from the leading wagon to a Jamiet wagon and then to a no-lynch that would never happen at that point could mean he is scum that don't want to end in the myslynched town wagon.

If Hosuke is scum (we might need to flip him sooner or later if he doesn't clear himself or get NKed) then I think there is a good chance to find one or two scum on Prado voters. From this lot, Jamiet, Temasek and EMC are the ones I would look at.
I don’t like the way Jamiet was pushing Ike as sure scum but voting Yukki and then just jumped in the Prado wagon after Ike voted Prado. I just can’t find a town logic on this and saving Hosuke could be the reason.
Temasek was trying to play the noob card that didn't know what he was doing, but ended up voting for someone he didn't even referenced before.
And Emc again did the last minute vote trick (well, he voted Percy first, 10 minutes earlier). This isn't AI as he does this at any alignment, but if Hosuke is scum I can easily see emc saving his partner neck using his meta and a generic reasoning to vote Prado.

[ND]

##GM Note

I don't want people to think that Darg or I made an error. No GM error has been made. My note was an amendment to the game start post because that information was not properly included. That is all.

[Jamiet99uk]

##GM Note

I don't want people to think that Darg or I made an error. No GM error has been made. My note was an amendment to the game start post because that information was not properly included. That is all.

Thanks for the clarification, ND.

[DemonRHK]

I never implied the GMs made an error.

I'm implying all player, myself included, are dumbasses and might skim PMs.

Even then, vapor isn't fully clear, but close enough for the moment.

[Carambola]

Tell us your ideas, then :D

Right or wrong, they're still helpful

Too many of you guys come out as either scum or nosense/something’s-wrong-with-this-person’s-head. Too many to fit into a scum team.

I voted Vapor. Next time, I have 3 strong candidates, but I think we are too far from the actual voting, and throwing names can only help scum to feed wagons and TvT frenzy.
I am pretty confident that once scum wins and this will be over, obvious scum will be obvious. The real problem is how many non scum players are acting just as scum would. Hence the problem. It’s not scum giving us false negatives, it’s how many false positives we are getting.

[Jamiet99uk]

I have 3 strong candidates, but I think we are too far from the actual voting, and throwing names can only help scum to feed wagons and TvT frenzy.

This is sensible thinking.

What people tend to do, if they want to share their reads at night, is to prepare their reads list, and then wait until the very last minute of the night phase to post them.

That way, if you are NK'ed, the surviving town can learn what your reads were, but you don't give scum time to react at EoN.

[Jamiet99uk]

I am pretty confident that once scum wins and this will be over...

However, could you stop being so negative? It's only Night 1.

[Jamiet99uk]

Jamie: scummy scum. Been getting a more townish vibe now that he has been humbled by his error on Prado. Seems to adapt his behavior whenever he is called out so this looks to me like one more stripe to the tiger.

See, this is the problem with new players who can't read me.

"Jamiet is being scummy - he MUST be scum, it's obvious!"
"Oh, now Jamiet is being towny - he MUST be scum, it's obvious!"

It appears there is literally nothing I could do at this point to make you rethink your tunnel-visioned verdict on me.

[Jamiet99uk]

Useless. I will be more engaged in a few hours. This looks a shambles.

Multiple hours have passed since you said this.

What are your thoughts, Damo? Please serve up a few steaming dollops of wisdom in our hour of need.

[Jamiet99uk]

hold up... Jamie looks horrific

In the space of eight minutes he went from saying that the lynch was never gonna happen to joining it. He then went from not really mentioning it to going balls deep.

If jamie is scum then someone was defs saved

This was because TrPrado turned up and was all like "Hey look at my amazing...………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..reaction test, hur hur hur" and being generally skeezy and horrible and oozing scummyness, and because partly due to that, his wagon started moving.

There's nothing scummy in saying you don't think a wagon on one of your scumreads is likely to happen, and then when it then does actually get moving, joining it - especially as TrPrado was trying to get me lynched on the basis of some absolute lies he was pedding, and I know I'm town.

[Jamiet99uk]

I'm going back over Vaporwave since apparently he's not posting tonight (in jail? fake in jail?)

This is one of the first things I noticed:

don't wanna fuck things up so I'll abstain

This is not a good look. Not wanting to be accountable.

[rdrivera2005]

hold up... Jamie looks horrific

In the space of eight minutes he went from saying that the lynch was never gonna happen to joining it. He then went from not really mentioning it to going balls deep.

If jamie is scum then someone was defs saved

This was because TrPrado turned up and was all like "Hey look at my amazing...………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..reaction test, hur hur hur" and being generally skeezy and horrible and oozing scummyness, and because partly due to that, his wagon started moving.

There's nothing scummy in saying you don't think a wagon on one of your scumreads is likely to happen, and then when it then does actually get moving, joining it - especially as TrPrado was trying to get me lynched on the basis of some absolute lies he was pedding, and I know I'm town.

Jamiet, what's your read on Ike? You were scumreading him hard but then joined him on Prado. This is the scummiest thing on your Prado vote to me.

[Jamiet99uk]

hold up... Jamie looks horrific

In the space of eight minutes he went from saying that the lynch was never gonna happen to joining it. He then went from not really mentioning it to going balls deep.

If jamie is scum then someone was defs saved

This was because TrPrado turned up and was all like "Hey look at my amazing...………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..reaction test, hur hur hur" and being generally skeezy and horrible and oozing scummyness, and because partly due to that, his wagon started moving.

There's nothing scummy in saying you don't think a wagon on one of your scumreads is likely to happen, and then when it then does actually get moving, joining it - especially as TrPrado was trying to get me lynched on the basis of some absolute lies he was pedding, and I know I'm town.

Jamiet, what's your read on Ike? You were scumreading him hard but then joined him on Prado. This is the scummiest thing on your Prado vote to me.

I don't want to talk about RagingIke right now.

[RagingIke297]

hold up... Jamie looks horrific

In the space of eight minutes he went from saying that the lynch was never gonna happen to joining it. He then went from not really mentioning it to going balls deep.

If jamie is scum then someone was defs saved

This was because TrPrado turned up and was all like "Hey look at my amazing...………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..reaction test, hur hur hur" and being generally skeezy and horrible and oozing scummyness, and because partly due to that, his wagon started moving.

There's nothing scummy in saying you don't think a wagon on one of your scumreads is likely to happen, and then when it then does actually get moving, joining it - especially as TrPrado was trying to get me lynched on the basis of some absolute lies he was pedding, and I know I'm town.

Jamiet, what's your read on Ike? You were scumreading him hard but then joined him on Prado. This is the scummiest thing on your Prado vote to me.

Not only did he join me, but he accused me of voting Prado twice and something else that I can't remember that turned out to be false or a misrepresentation and he hasn't commented on it since

[RagingIke297]

This was because TrPrado turned up and was all like "Hey look at my amazing...………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..reaction test, hur hur hur" and being generally skeezy and horrible and oozing scummyness, and because partly due to that, his wagon started moving.

There's nothing scummy in saying you don't think a wagon on one of your scumreads is likely to happen, and then when it then does actually get moving, joining it - especially as TrPrado was trying to get me lynched on the basis of some absolute lies he was pedding, and I know I'm town.

Jamiet, what's your read on Ike? You were scumreading him hard but then joined him on Prado. This is the scummiest thing on your Prado vote to me.

I don't want to talk about RagingIke right now.

Me neither my man, me neither

[DemonRHK]

@Jamie: What makes TrP's reaction test any worse that yuuki's is mis-stating who made the claim you're focused on?

[worcej]

ND's GM call stated the prisoned/jailed person is muted. That is why we don't know which one is, but a non-poster would indicate who is jailed.

Yeah I saw that which is why I was wondering. It wasn't mentioned in the setup though.

I would argue that whoever was jailed this night is a townclear. Scum would not have known this beforehand so they wouldn't have targeted one of their own.

I would not assume they didn't know it.

##call SENATORS:
Can you confirm the Mafia did or did not know that the jailed target would be muted for the night before N1 kicked in?

[worcej]

Yeah, but Chaqa's Razor says that scum should always do the unexpected.

+1 for this clap back.

Also, as darg accidentally demonstrated last game, sometimes scum can do some wild BS in hopes to advance the game.

[worcej]

Also, anyone want to possibly discuss why scum chose either rdr or vapor for the jail?

I wasn't Jailed, just having another really busy day at work.
I started doing an EOD and vote analysis last night, but didn't have time to finish, will try to finish now on my lunch time.

Now this is very enlightening...

Why did the scum jail Vapor?

[Jamiet99uk]

This was because TrPrado turned up and was all like "Hey look at my amazing...………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..reaction test, hur hur hur" and being generally skeezy and horrible and oozing scummyness, and because partly due to that, his wagon started moving.

There's nothing scummy in saying you don't think a wagon on one of your scumreads is likely to happen, and then when it then does actually get moving, joining it - especially as TrPrado was trying to get me lynched on the basis of some absolute lies he was pedding, and I know I'm town.

Jamiet, what's your read on Ike? You were scumreading him hard but then joined him on Prado. This is the scummiest thing on your Prado vote to me.

Not only did he join me, but he accused me of voting Prado twice and something else that I can't remember that turned out to be false or a misrepresentation and he hasn't commented on it since

Oh I'll comment on that. You were throwing your vote around left right and centre so much I mistakenly thought you'd been on Prado and then hopped off and back on. Simply a mistake caused by your crazy Brainbomb vote spamming during the day.