MAFIA 48 -The Gladiator- GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[yuuki]

^This

I think there is a good chance Chaqa will say he copscanned Demon lol

Lol. Or Tem.

Do you think he should tell us now? Ie before he gets the result if he really is cop.

I think he is cop though otherwise the real one would be pushing him.

I don't think he would because it would be akin to revealing himself. That being said this will obviously sort itself out over time, so no rush to deal with it. I'm definitely recommending fellow townies don't follow Chaqa's word as a cleared townie (like maybe Vapor) since he is not really cleared. Not yet at least. And his ideas have mostly been awful for town, so there's that too.

Also, if Chaqa really is cop he should have a real scan by now or he should not had revealed foodcoats was his first scan.

[Chaqa]

I really didn’t expect them to kill food. Figured Vecna or Jamiet or xorx or someone high profile would die.

[yuuki]

I really didn’t expect them to kill food. Figured Vecna or Jamiet or xorx or someone high profile would die.

Like I say, if that is your real scan you should not have said it, because you allow mafia to plan their nightkills better

[yuuki]

I really didn’t expect them to kill food. Figured Vecna or Jamiet or xorx or someone high profile would die.

Like I say, if that is your real scan you should not have said it, because you allow mafia to plan their nightkills better

Also, everyone knows the best early copscans are lurkers. Why would anyone scan food? It's baffling

[Jamiet99uk]

We were asked for reads, and I have some reads, and here they are:

Carambola - He's the lowest poster, lower even than the people who died D1 and N1. No meta on him so could just be lost n00b town, but he really needs to up his participation. Null, Lurker.

Chaqa - Claims Lazy Cop but has been fairly shady and isn't trying very hard. Townlean for now purely on the basis of his claim, but not clear.

damo666 - His D1 was hot garbage but he's improved and at least appears to be trying. Townlean.

e.m.c^42 - Null. I really don't know.

Jamiet99uk - Obvtown.

Nephthys - He's suddenly upped his participation today and I want to give him a re-read. NULL until I have done.

Percy Williams - Percy needs to post more, but what he has posted feels honest. Townlean.

RagingIke297 - He's been so all over the place and posted loads but most of it is rubbish. I've never seen him hop his votes about this much. Scumlean.

rdrivera2005 - Not usually such a low poster and next on my re-reads after Nephththths. NULL until re-read.

Temasek22 - Likely SCUM based on the ISO I posted earlier today.

Vaporwave - Can be assumed to be Town as he claims stabbed, which will resolve itself at EoD today if he's fibbing.

Vecna - Scumlean.

worcej - Weird that he's vanished since EoD2 but I was Townleaning him then.

xorxes - I believe Xorxes is scum because his Survivor claim makes more sense as scum than as town, as I have explained.

yuuki - Still feels like a Scumlean.

[Jamiet99uk]

Note: For what it's worth I think the Survivor is likely in my Scumleans or Nulls, not my Townleans.

[Vaporwave]

Carambola looks more like a poet rather than a gladiator..

his quick reveal feels easy breezy, some would say innocent.

But if you look at his humor, I see some craftiness, this guy knows what's he's doing.

Not a lynch for today, but a guy to remember. His POE was comprised of yuuki, Jamie and Rage. Voted Jamie, I want to know where he's at with current suspects

[Vecna]

Maybe this will actually help me sort my thoughts a bit, trying to put shit in order and seeing if my internal logic is problematic or not. The percentages are my rough estimate of how likely I think theyre town.

TOWN
Vaporwave 95% - This percentage goes down quite a bit if he suddenly comes out and gladiates someone before dying. Outside of that, scum really wouldnt waste their jail two nights in a row and sacrifice a member without gain. Besides that, hes been plenty of towny before through play.

Chaqa 80% - I thought claiming cop an hour before EOD was the towny way of handling it. It was stupid, but not in a scummy way where you only claim it with very little time remaining to cause a last minute swing and hope to out the town cop. The way he did it wouldve still allowed a cc and for him to die or waste emperor shit. I also feel his play overall is clumsy and silly, which does not feel at all similair to his calculated responses and votes that we witnessed last game. It might be a very good act, but I have reasonable strong doubts about it. At any rate, im sure if he's scum we'll get some EoN cc soon enough. Or if scum get desperate and run out of other ideas to kill him.

Nephthys 75% - Started off really weak, and I really didnt like the weird interaction analysis nonsense he was doing day1. His inactivity felt off. More recent his posts have started feeling good. Pretty towny inquisitive vibe, and I can sort of get where he was coming from with attacking me. Could still be an act, but I remember scum Nephtys being more dulled down.

Yuuki 75% - Agressive, committed, hostile. Dont really agree with a whole lot of his stances, but I dont think he'd be this consistent in his thinking and be able to fake this much agression and make it feel real.

Jamie 70% - Irritating, stubborn, the usual bullheaded jamiet that refuses to see things any other way besides his own narrow view. There have been a few moments where I doubted my townread because he really seems awfull in what he reacts to....but very little of it feels fake and forced. It mostly feels vanilla jamiet being jamiet.

e.m.c 55% - Quite a big drop here because apparently I do not really have more moderately strong townreads. EMC has done very little. The one recent big post seemed classical EMC analysis. It could also very well just be trying to appeal to me, knowing what the scum strategy is (making me look suspicious) and truth talking. Some of the other posts seemed quite genuine though. I could totally see EMC be very uncomfortable about the Ike situation. I could also just see him use it as an excuse, but the rest of his moderately genuine sounding posts make me lean slightly in favor of town over scum. Itd be lovely if he could just go back to live posting so I could get an actual decent read on him.

Damo 50% - Nothing he has done has been very town indicative I feel. He's still very much in the range of what he is capable of scum. Nearly all the time as town at this stage of the game he has made a couple of posts I can point to and be "this post never ever comes from scum". Here I have not seen it. Its a bunch of boasting about how towny he is, but im not seeing it yet. I do believe he was on the right side of the Hosuku lynch, but I feel that theres an alternative to the theory of "the right people were not online to save Hosuku". Namely that the more important team members were under pressure, of which Damo is definately a possibility. At any rate, if he is town, it should become apparent soon enough so Damo is not really someone I want to lynch today, unless the other options are really terrible.

Worcej 50% - Very similair to Damo, but has been around more. A bunch of towny'ish sounding posts, and overall he seems to be saying the right type of stuff. But he just does not feel as daring as last game. He is nowhere near as OBV-town as he was last game. Which is cause for concern. He feels like Worcej-light. He's a lot more present then he was in the last game I saw him as scum though. so what to make of it? Not really playing according to either meta that im used off as him. I wouldnt be surprised if hes actually the survivor.

rdrivera 50% - Was on the right side of the Hosutu (WTF IS THIS GUYS NAME, EVERY TIME I THINK I GET IT WRONG) lynch. Mightve been classic Rdrivera bussing. I havent really seen as many posts of Rdrivera that I agree with as I normally do as town under good circumstances. There were a few, but they were uncomfortably little. Still in his range of what he is capable of faking as scum, but im not convinced yet. I did like his recent post of him pointing to Xorxes for trying to set him up as a mislynch.

Percy 45% - Still hasnt really done a lot. Had a very bad moment where people complained he wasnt being funny, and he suddenly tried to be a clown. The posts that came after were a bit better, but there was so little of them. He fits quite well in a number of scum teams. I dont really know. Null, but with a bad taste.

Carambola 45% - I really have no idea what to think of this slot. Tries to be aggresive. Tries to be agitated. Doesnt really feel like the slot has a reason to be any of these things. The attitude feels a lot more natural for Yuuki.

xorxes 45% - Im just gonna go out and say it. Xorxes is strongly in his "PR or SCUM" meta. Id have thought to have at least someone on scum pick up on this and try to kill him if he was indeed town. Instead we find ourselves in a situation where both me and Xorxes are kept alive. I could think of a situation where Xorxes wants to keep me around to try and share the negative "still being alive penalty". The other alternative is that scum is indeed just all new people, or trying to make us look suspicious. At any rate - Xorxes is missing that little something, and is obviously trying to fly under the radar - for whatever reason that might be.

RagingIke 30% - I havent really liked anything this slot has done. He still doesnt feel overly scummy, but theres no thoughts where I could strongly identify with. The slots just been fluffing about with cutesy stuff, trying to get on my bad side - trying to make me look bad, and quickly backing off at the sign of any blowback or resistance. Very possible scum.

Temasek 30% - As I said before, mixed feelings. The interactions with Hosuku felt SvS after his sudden unvote. Or maybe it was just general unease and not wanting to be wrong about lynching his buddy, because that would also probably be embarrassing after his boasting earlier on. I could totally see this guy being the scum scapegoat. Or the most obvious answer is just the correct answer, and it was indeed flimsy scum bussing gone wrong. Should be lynched. Would not be overly surprised if scum played it cleverly and it flips town.

SCUM

[Jamiet99uk]

I notice a lot of people spelling both Temasek and It'sHosuke's names wrong, in all kinds of different ways.

Idle thought: Could this be a weird scum policy to avoid being connected on re-read, because searches involving the correct spelling will not generate a return?

[Vecna]

ItsHosuke

itsHOSUKE

ITShoSUke

itshOsUkE

ItsHoSuKe

OUE

OUE?

Almost french but not quite

[Vecna]

My reads suck. I blame the people in the middle group for their mediocre participation.

[Vaporwave]

The percentages are my rough estimate of how likely I think theyre town.

No, what is this freaky telepathy, I wanted to do a percentage list just like this one

TOWN
Vaporwave 95% - This percentage goes down quite a bit if he suddenly comes out and gladiates someone before dying. Outside of that, scum really wouldnt waste their jail two nights in a row and sacrifice a member without gain. Besides that, hes been plenty of towny before through play.

YASS that's right finally a read based on content. I understand that being stabbed offers townie points, but I prefer being townleaned based on posts

[Vecna]

Better not come out and try to gladiate someone Vapor, ill lynch you without even asking for town to CC

[Vaporwave]

ok..then I'll prob do 'most to least' town

once again, if I mention someone as strong town, pls trust me and don't bother with them, I have a talented nose able to sniff this sort of thing

[Vecna]

Oh btw, what do people feel about, at some point, have both town gladiators claim at EoN? Not saying it has to be this night (although it might be optimal based on what vapour flips as)

But it forces scum to either fakeclaim at that designated point, or never be able to use their gladiator. This has the result it either eliminates their utility of trying to do shenanigans to get an extra nightkill, or it forces them to out one of their remaining PR's and giving us a 50/50, for which we will have a clever plan on how to resolve it.

The downside is obviously that scum will not waste a nightkill on killing the reward gladiator.

Thoughts? Shit im missing? Reasons for doubt, or why this plan is fucking stupid?

And while responding, please dont go and be stupidly passionate about it one way or the other and letting scum read into your reply.

[Vecna]

The added benefit is ofcourse as well that we do not get a silly mislynch attempt on these two gladiators.

[Jamiet99uk]

Oh btw, what do people feel about, at some point, have both town gladiators claim at EoN? Not saying it has to be this night (although it might be optimal based on what vapour flips as)

But it forces scum to either fakeclaim at that designated point, or never be able to use their gladiator. This has the result it either eliminates their utility of trying to do shenanigans to get an extra nightkill, or it forces them to out one of their remaining PR's and giving us a 50/50, for which we will have a clever plan on how to resolve it.

The downside is obviously that scum will not waste a nightkill on killing the reward gladiator.

Thoughts? Shit im missing? Reasons for doubt, or why this plan is fucking stupid?

And while responding, please dont go and be stupidly passionate about it one way or the other and letting scum read into your reply.

I do not hate this idea.

[Chaqa]

Oh btw, what do people feel about, at some point, have both town gladiators claim at EoN? Not saying it has to be this night (although it might be optimal based on what vapour flips as)

But it forces scum to either fakeclaim at that designated point, or never be able to use their gladiator. This has the result it either eliminates their utility of trying to do shenanigans to get an extra nightkill, or it forces them to out one of their remaining PR's and giving us a 50/50, for which we will have a clever plan on how to resolve it.

The downside is obviously that scum will not waste a nightkill on killing the reward gladiator.

Thoughts? Shit im missing? Reasons for doubt, or why this plan is fucking stupid?

And while responding, please dont go and be stupidly passionate about it one way or the other and letting scum read into your reply.

Have them both claim but not specify who is who and then there’s a level of protection for them as wel.

[Vecna]

Numberwise, if Vapour flips as a lesser gladiator:

4 VT's left
1 survivor
4 unknown town PR's
Chaqa (assuming some assumptions)

2/9 for scum to waste a NK on survivor or reward gladiator (terrible outcome for scum)
3/9 for scum to hit roleblocker, bodyguard or weird other gladiator (great outcome for scum)
4/9 to hit a random VT
Effective Lynchpool of 13 people, of which 4 are scum (4/13)

This is without claiming them, and without taking todays lynch into consideration, if they do not try to kill Chaqa.

6/9 chance for a benefical NK for town. 4/13 chance to lynch scum, randomly speaking

If we claim the gladiators:
Good opportunity to wifom-kill between cop/2nd gladiator for scum
1/7 chance to waste NK
2/7 chance to kill Roleblocker/Bodyguard
4/7 chance to kill VT
Lynchpool reduced to 11 people, of which 4 are scum (4/11)

Not sure how to compare, since scum are probably just gonna NK the claimed delayed gladiator or the cop.

Meh. Probably not yet worth it.

[Vecna]

Oh btw, what do people feel about, at some point, have both town gladiators claim at EoN? Not saying it has to be this night (although it might be optimal based on what vapour flips as)

But it forces scum to either fakeclaim at that designated point, or never be able to use their gladiator. This has the result it either eliminates their utility of trying to do shenanigans to get an extra nightkill, or it forces them to out one of their remaining PR's and giving us a 50/50, for which we will have a clever plan on how to resolve it.

The downside is obviously that scum will not waste a nightkill on killing the reward gladiator.

Thoughts? Shit im missing? Reasons for doubt, or why this plan is fucking stupid?

And while responding, please dont go and be stupidly passionate about it one way or the other and letting scum read into your reply.

Have them both claim but not specify who is who and then there’s a level of protection for them as wel.

Hmmm yeah, that would work, if scum choose not to CC