Game Theory Games

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Squigs44
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Game Theory Games

#1 Post by Squigs44 » Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:37 pm

I love 538's Riddler and especially when they do competitions/contests around game theory. So I thought I would see if any of you were interested in doing the same sort of thing here on webDip. If we have enough interest, then about once a week I will post a challenge - you PM me with your submission - and after the week has past, I will reveal who won. If there isn't enough interest then I will just let this thread die.

Since we are on webdip, I want to make them diplomacy related if I can. So for the first week, here is your challenge:

Each of the supply centers in Diplomacy is arranged alphabetically from Ankara to Warsaw. Ankara is given 34 points, Belgium 33, Berlin 32, Brest 31, and so on down to Vienna 2, Warsaw 1. You are allowed to place a single unit, fleet or army, on a single territory on the map. After everyone has placed their unit, I will score the map in the following way:
Each SC will be awarded to the player who has the closest unit to that SC. Distance to SCs is determined by the shortest number of phases it would take that unit to reach that SC. For example, if I place A Kiel, I would be a distance of 0 from Kiel, a distance of 1 from Denmark, Holland, Ruhr, Munich, and Berlin. My army in Kiel would not be able to claim any SCs that it could not reach, such as London (no convoying allowed). Likewise, a fleet placed in MAO would not be able to reach Paris. In the event of a tie, points for a SC will be split equally among all players involved in the tie. Your goal is to score the most points.

If you have any questions about rules, feel free to ask them here or in a PM.

In order to participate, please PM me (don't post here) with the territory and unit type. I will be accepting participants until Friday August 9th at 11:59 pm Eastern Time. I will then process the results and post the winner and the next challenge the following day (should we get enough participants).

Also feel free to discuss strategy/game theory here, but remember that any info you give your opponents could sway their decision.
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Re: Game Theory Games

#2 Post by Squigs44 » Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:42 pm

Here is a full list of point totals for your use:

Ankara - 34
Belgium - 33
Berlin - 32
Brest -31
Budapest - 30
Bulgaria - 29
Constantinople - 28
Denmark - 27
Edinburgh - 26
Greece - 25
Holland - 24
Kiel - 23
Liverpool - 22
London - 21
Marseilles - 20
Moscow - 19
Munich - 18
Naples - 17
Norway - 16
Paris - 15
Portugal - 14
Rome - 13
Rumania - 12
Saint Petersburg - 11
Serbia - 10
Sevastopol - 9
Smyrna - 8
Spain - 7
Sweden - 6
Trieste - 5
Tunis - 4
Venice - 3
Vienna - 2
Warsaw - 1
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Re: Game Theory Games

#3 Post by Squigs44 » Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:58 pm

Oh - also - if you place a fleet on a territory that has two coasts, please specify which coast you are placing it on.
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Re: Game Theory Games

#4 Post by AncientMemories » Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:51 am

What if two people place their unit in the same territory?

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Re: Game Theory Games

#5 Post by Squigs44 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:01 am

AncientMemories wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:51 am
What if two people place their unit in the same territory?
If two people place the same unit type in the same territory then they will have to share all of the points that they would have otherwise scored. Choose wisely!
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Re: Game Theory Games

#6 Post by Squigs44 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:37 pm

I'm happy to say that less than 24 hours in, it looks like we have enough people for this to work (although I won't reveal exact numbers). Some people have asked if you can change your submission after entering it in, and the answer is yes, as long as you do it before the deadline.
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pyxxy
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Re: Game Theory Games

#7 Post by pyxxy » Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:29 am

Made a map with the points for each center on it to help myself think and figured I should share it.

(I'm new to the forum so idk if it's possible to post images?)
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Re: Game Theory Games

#8 Post by BobMcBob » Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:47 am

Anybody else want to build an army in Wales with me?

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Re: Game Theory Games

#9 Post by Claesar » Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:24 am

pyxxy wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:29 am
Made a map with the points for each center on it to help myself think and figured I should share it.

(I'm new to the forum so idk if it's possible to post images?)
I made that map as well and decided to keep it to myself :eyeroll: There goes my edge..
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Re: Game Theory Games

#10 Post by pyxxy » Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:01 pm

Claesar wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:24 am
pyxxy wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:29 am
Made a map with the points for each center on it to help myself think and figured I should share it.

(I'm new to the forum so idk if it's possible to post images?)
I made that map as well and decided to keep it to myself :eyeroll: There goes my edge..
I'd be lying if I said it wasn't part of my strategy to make and share the map so it will influence what gets picked ;)
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Re: Game Theory Games

#11 Post by KCelec » Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:43 pm

BobMcBob wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:47 am
Anybody else want to build an army in Wales with me?
Sorry, but I have planned to build an army in North Africa.
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Re: Game Theory Games

#12 Post by AncientMemories » Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:03 pm

What would make this more diplomaticy themed is having it be a repeated game or allowing moves and scoring each round.

Anyways, for the sake of not splitting points with anyone, I'm building an army in con.

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Re: Game Theory Games

#13 Post by Squigs44 » Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:30 pm

Entries keep coming in which is pretty exciting for me since I do live score updates for myself. The Riddler often repeats some of its competitions, but has a gap in between them, so we might repeat this one in like a month or two. I already have next week's all planned out, and an idea for the following week.
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Re: Game Theory Games

#14 Post by Squigs44 » Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:31 am

I am trying to reply to everyone who submitted an entry to let them know that I got their submission. If you have made a submission but have not heard back from me, let me know.
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Re: Game Theory Games

#15 Post by BobMcBob » Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:55 am

KCelec wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:43 pm
BobMcBob wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:47 am
Anybody else want to build an army in Wales with me?
Sorry, but I have planned to build an army in North Africa.
Darn, you got me there. That build is far superior. I can change my build, right?

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Re: Game Theory Games

#16 Post by Squigs44 » Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:56 am

A little over a day left before the deadline on this one. I notice some people who have +1'd my posts that are not participating and some people who are participating that have not +1'd my posts. Neither of those should be happening. Everyone should be giving me +1s and participating.
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Re: Game Theory Games

#17 Post by BobMcBob » Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:03 am

Squigs44 wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:56 am
A little over a day left before the deadline on this one. I notice some people who have +1'd my posts that are not participating and some people who are participating that have not +1'd my posts. Neither of those should be happening. Everyone should be giving me +1s and participating.
I think I'm okay in both of those areas. As a reward, can you share the score sheet with me? ;)
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Re: Game Theory Games

#18 Post by Temasek22 » Fri Aug 09, 2019 10:23 am

BobMcBob wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:03 am
Squigs44 wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:56 am
A little over a day left before the deadline on this one. I notice some people who have +1'd my posts that are not participating and some people who are participating that have not +1'd my posts. Neither of those should be happening. Everyone should be giving me +1s and participating.
I think I'm okay in both of those areas. As a reward, can you share the score sheet with me? ;)
I have exclusive info that you should build F Con. Thank me later
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Re: Game Theory Games

#19 Post by Squigs44 » Sat Aug 10, 2019 5:02 am

Well, the deadline has past, and I am going to be busy tomorrow morning, so I am going to post the results right now!

It was interesting to see how things shook out, especially since I did not know that so many people would be participating. We had a total of 21 participants in this game, which made for quite the crowded board. At first glance, the SCs seemed to be in two main clusters:

Ankara, Constantinople, Bulgaria, Greece, Budapest were all somewhat close to each other - as well as Brest, Belgium, Holland, Denmark, Berlin. Many people recognized these hotspots, and decided to place their unit right in the middle of the hotbed. Take for example, A Bulgaria. Bulgaria is worth 29 points, with 75 additional points within one space, and 86 more within another space. Indeed, this would have been a great pick for this game - if not for the fact that 6 out of 21 participants picked it. The six of them had to split their points, which dropped them down to below 18 points each (still not last place though).

So with 34 SCs and 21 participants, surely the optimal strategy would be to pick somewhere out of the way, but still close to some reasonably high-scoring SCs? Well, that was what Xorxes thought when he selected a Fleet in Edinburgh. And it did him quite well, earning him 48 points and securing him fourth place.

No, the real winner is the player that was able to correctly pick Brest as a higher scoring SC that others would shy away from (31 points for being the only one on Brest) but was also able to snag points from two other nearby middling SCs (20 from Marseilles, 15 from Paris). Congratulions to RoganJosh for taking first place scoring 66 points.

Tough luck goes to BobMcBob and gimix, who came tied in second by both selecting A Kiel. Had either one of them not entered, the other would have had nearly double their 48.57 points and would have won soundly.

Complete standings below:
1 RoganJosh A Brest 66
2 BobMcBob A Kiel 48.57
gimix A Kiel 48.57
4 Xorxes F Edinburgh 48
5 ItsHosuke F Black Sea 43.33
6 MoscowFleet F Greece 43.01
7 Temasek22 F North Sea 37.88
8 Carl Tuckerson A Moscow 24.72
9 KCelec F Belgium 21.3
bozotheclown F Belgium 21.3
11 yuuki F Gacony 21
12 e.m.c^42 F Aegean Sea 20.41
13 Magnetic24 F Sweden 18.08
14 (6 people) A Bulgaria 17.56
(90kicvesb, AncientMemories, Claesar, Doug7878, Mercy, yavuzovic)
20 tr1285 A St Pete 16.33
21 pyxxy F Smyrna 11.11
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Re: Game Theory Games

#20 Post by Squigs44 » Sat Aug 10, 2019 5:04 am

Here is this week's Game Theory Game:

Let's Fix Squigs Gunboat Woes

Note: The following scenario is purely fictional.

I have recently started playing some gunboat games, and I am a bit disappointed. I keep getting assigned to play awful countries, like Russia. Being a dev, I decided to do something about it, and implemented a new system for better country placement. Here is how it works:
Before a game begins, each player submits an ordered list of the seven countries from most preferable to least preferable. The gamemaster will then look at the lists and place countries in the following way:
If a player is the only person to put a specific country at the top of their list, then they are awarded that country. If multiple people put the same country at the top of their list, then one of them is chosen at random to play as that country. The remaining players that were not chosen get bumped to the next round. From there, we look at each players second choice. If their second choice has already been awarded to a different player, then they are bumped to the next round. If their second choice is available and no one else in that round has that country as their second choice, they are awarded that country. If their second choice is not taken, but someone else also wants that country, it is randomly decided who gets that country, and the remaining players are bumped to the next round. This continues until all players have been assigned a country.
Now, once I am in the game, I am far from guaranteed to win. The probability that I win is based off of Swordsman’s Tier List for Gunboat Diplomacy, plus some of my personal preferences. With France, I have a 30% chance of soloing. With Turkey, I have a 24% chance of soloing. With Germany, I have an 18% chance of soloing. With Italy, I have a 12% chance of soloing. With England, I have an 8% chance of soloing. With Austria I have a 5% chance of soloing. With Russia, I have a 3% chance of soloing. Each game is played until a solo, no draws allowed.

So the question is: What ordered list of countries should I submit?

For this week, if you would like to participate, just PM me with your ordered list of country placement (please label it as most preferable to least preferable so I don’t get confused). After receiving everyone’s submissions, I will simulate about a million games where country placement will be dependent on this new system, and the winner of each game will be dependent on the odds given here. You will be guaranteed to play an equal amount of games as everyone else, and you will be placed in games with all other contestants in a fair manner. Your goal is to win more games than anyone else.

For those of you serious about Game Theory, I will allow you to submit a mixed strategy. Do this by submitting a percentage with each list and I will use that to randomly select one of the strategies you submitted, dependent on the percentages you submit. To save myself some work in setting up the simulator, and to add a bit of a challenge to you, any mixed strategy is limited to 5 strategies max. If you don’t know what this paragraph is talking about, just ignore it.

Entries are due by Friday August 16th at 11:59 pm Eastern Time
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