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Foxcastle wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 09, 2019 1:12 pm

Panicked insistence that we must kill scum is not actually a plan. Hope is not a strategy.

Look, information kills shouldn't be Town/SK's strategy (they're the same right now). Right now, we have to rely on some luck to win this game - we need the Blind Assassin to successfully kill scum tonight - and than hopefully garner enough information from the scum flip to vote out scum.

There's a decent chance that the BA used his tracking in the previous night (I mean, he still could of killed someone, but there's a good chance he just used his tracking) - which hopefully he chose the right person to guarantee scum kill somebody, or at worst case, rule out 1 person from his pool of people to NK.

Rivera’s helplessness seems genuine to mean. I don’t know that scum Rivera would act like that

Some ISO reactions:

I think Neph is town. Most recently, I think his proposal that the BA scan instead of kill tonight is flawed, but in a way that is more likely to be a townie error than scum trying to undermine the BA's potential assistance.

I would also not lynch Damo yet. Again, he's trying to push a Chippe lynch followed by an et lynch. That seems like a townie error rather than a scum plan.

I think Teacon is scum. It's superficial engagement. He talks about the secretary a couple times, once in regard to Flavius's early "slip", and then later to basically accuse the secretary of having coached Cruaader's newbie play. I think that if D1 was TvT, there'll be scum on the idependent wagons, and since Cruaader and Espresso are cleared and I'm townreading ND, and null/slight town on Xorxes, he'd fit the bill. Even if Flavius is scum, I still think it's possible for a scum to avoid both lead wagons.

Percy likes to hunt for PRs without much subtlety to it. I think that indicates genuine curiosity about the game, which is townie. There are couple places where he throws out jokes (D2, p. 138 and N2, p. 153), and is somewhat cheerful in contrast to the rest of the thread being frustrated. That could imply confidence that comes with being scum, but also I doubt scum would risk that. (Even if Percy has a similar streak to EMC and likes making subtle mocking scum comments in the thread, this is too bold.) So I'll say Percy is town.

Teacon is scum. And I'm still stuck on TrPrado, Flavius, and Rdrivera being scum, too.

ChippeRock wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:58 pm

Foxcastle wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 09, 2019 1:12 pm

Panicked insistence that we must kill scum is not actually a plan. Hope is not a strategy.

Look, information kills shouldn't be Town/SK's strategy (they're the same right now). Right now, we have to rely on some luck to win this game - we need the Blind Assassin to successfully kill scum tonight - and than hopefully garner enough information from the scum flip to vote out scum.

There's a decent chance that the BA used his tracking in the previous night (I mean, he still could of killed someone, but there's a good chance he just used his tracking) - which hopefully he chose the right person to guarantee scum kill somebody, or at worst case, rule out 1 person from his pool of people to NK.

The BA's track result is PR or not-PR. If they got not-PR then it's most likely town, but if they got PR it's 5 scum vs 4 town, so they never have a guaranteed scum kill.

xorxes wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:17 pm

ChippeRock wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:58 pm

Foxcastle wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 09, 2019 1:12 pm

Panicked insistence that we must kill scum is not actually a plan. Hope is not a strategy.

Look, information kills shouldn't be Town/SK's strategy (they're the same right now). Right now, we have to rely on some luck to win this game - we need the Blind Assassin to successfully kill scum tonight - and than hopefully garner enough information from the scum flip to vote out scum.

There's a decent chance that the BA used his tracking in the previous night (I mean, he still could of killed someone, but there's a good chance he just used his tracking) - which hopefully he chose the right person to guarantee scum kill somebody, or at worst case, rule out 1 person from his pool of people to NK.

The BA's track result is PR or not-PR. If they got not-PR then it's most likely town, but if they got PR it's 5 scum vs 4 town, so they never have a guaranteed scum kill.

Checking back to the OP, I see that you are indeed correct. I guess I misunderstood what BA's Tracking ability did.

Just read Xorxes ISO.

Blindly Assassinate Xorxes

I feel a bit better about this one than the Prado vote. You know what is suspicious about Xorxes? He has basically no original town reads all game. Early Day 1 he says Carl seems Town and Squigs is “maybe Town,” but these were widely held views and he left himself a hedge on Squigs. Since then, basically anything he has said on alignments has been light scumreading. This is exactly what you expect to see from scum, who need mislynches to win, and who do not want to limit the pool of potential mislynches.

Im going to take a closer look at Neph next.

@teacon: how did you manage to quote something from this thread and post it on another thread? Did you have the post prepared on some external text editor?

Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:27 pm

Just read Xorxes ISO.

Blindly Assassinate Xorxes

I feel a bit better about this one than the Prado vote. You know what is suspicious about Xorxes? He has basically no original town reads all game. Early Day 1 he says Carl seems Town and Squigs is “maybe Town,” but these were widely held views and he left himself a hedge on Squigs. Since then, basically anything he has said on alignments has been light scumreading. This is exactly what you expect to see from scum, who need mislynches to win, and who do not want to limit the pool of potential mislynches.

Im going to take a closer look at Neph next.

What? I have many more townreads than scumreads.

xorxes wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:32 pm

Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:27 pm

Just read Xorxes ISO.

Blindly Assassinate Xorxes

I feel a bit better about this one than the Prado vote. You know what is suspicious about Xorxes? He has basically no original town reads all game. Early Day 1 he says Carl seems Town and Squigs is “maybe Town,” but these were widely held views and he left himself a hedge on Squigs. Since then, basically anything he has said on alignments has been light scumreading. This is exactly what you expect to see from scum, who need mislynches to win, and who do not want to limit the pool of potential mislynches.

Im going to take a closer look at Neph next.

What? I have many more townreads than scumreads.

Who are your town reads and how sure are you about them?

...

* waits patiently for the “many moretown reads.”

Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:33 pm

xorxes wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:32 pm

Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:27 pm

Just read Xorxes ISO.

Blindly Assassinate Xorxes

I feel a bit better about this one than the Prado vote. You know what is suspicious about Xorxes? He has basically no original town reads all game. Early Day 1 he says Carl seems Town and Squigs is “maybe Town,” but these were widely held views and he left himself a hedge on Squigs. Since then, basically anything he has said on alignments has been light scumreading. This is exactly what you expect to see from scum, who need mislynches to win, and who do not want to limit the pool of potential mislynches.

Im going to take a closer look at Neph next.

What? I have many more townreads than scumreads.

Who are your town reads and how sure are you about them?

Pretty sure Durga, Chippe, ND, et, Flav are town.
Weaker townleans on Tom, Squigs, Prado and Fox.
Complete nulls on connor, peter.
Suspicious of rivera, Balki, Nephthys, damo, teacon.
Most suspicious of Percy.

Link to where you’ve presented those townreads before I called you out on it.

Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:46 pm

Link to where you’ve presented those townreads before I called you out on it.

Go look for them!

Can you give us your reads as well?

xorxes wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:51 pm

Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:46 pm

Link to where you’ve presented those townreads before I called you out on it.

Go look for them!

Can you give us your reads as well?

I have a comment/question on this, but I'm waiting to see if you're going to answer Balki.

xorxes wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:51 pm

Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:46 pm

Link to where you’ve presented those townreads before I called you out on it.

Go look for them!

Can you give us your reads as well?

I did. I did not see them. You read Carl as Town early when everyone else did, and you put down a “maybe Town” on Squigs. Otherwise, just flinging around soft shade.

I’ll post my reads before the night ends, though I’m going to be in a car for the last hour or so, so not as late as I wish.

@Xorx, why do you think Fox is Town?

And why do you think Prado is Town?

And why are you playing so poorly and without conviction?

Quick thoughts bcoz I'm busy today

Null: I go back and forth on these two in my head (Flav/Chippie) I think Chippie has played an anti-town game, but there have been moments of town indicative play in him. Same for Flav really if you read him up to the Espresso-ET thing, but to a lesser extent.

Scumlean: Moscow (Peter) and Teacon. I think there is something in this bracket. Both haven't really been present (obviously MF got replaced) but Teacon isn't acting his usual self. Busy or not. Bares watching.

Scummier: I think ET is scum. People say it’s noob town, but why is that the case here? I think he is playing everyone. Conner, yeah there is a guy named Conner in the game. I plan to re-read him when I get the chance. He is flying under the radar so to speak for sure. Xorxes: Doesn’t act himself and I’m thinking he is scum based on what I am seeing. Not a top read, but that’s what’s going through my head.

That’s what I’m thinking.