Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

[et]

@Squigs
I realised your will.
But why do you think lost third party support town?
There are no relationship with third party's win.
Is that common sense here?

[worcej]

Vote Count:
et (4) connorcompton, Percy Williams, Squigs44, Foxcastle
No‑Lynch (2) yavuzovic, et

Currently et is set to be found as guilty. 49-ish minutes left in D7.

[connorcompton]

@Squigs
I realised your will.
But why do you think lost third party support town?
There are no relationship with third party's win.
Is that common sense here?

I'm not Squigs but I'd still like to comment.
There is absolutely no strategic incentive for ND to tell the truth about what they know in their dying breath, since they are going to lose either way.
But, people always have a preference, and this is fairly psychological, but because of many reasons, a third party BA is very likely to sympathise with town over Mafia, especially since we were losing, so it is sensible to assume he's telling the truth. His closing statement comes off as very genuine, and he wouldn't put in effort to try and disguise his intentions that well unless he really wanted Mafia to win, and there really isn't anything indicating that.

[et]

@Squigs
I realised your will.
But why do you think lost third party support town?
There are no relationship with third party's win.
Is that common sense here?

I'm not Squigs but I'd still like to comment.
There is absolutely no strategic incentive for ND to tell the truth about what they know in their dying breath, since they are going to lose either way.
But, people always have a preference, and this is fairly psychological, but because of many reasons, a third party BA is very likely to sympathise with town over Mafia, especially since we were losing, so it is sensible to assume he's telling the truth. His closing statement comes off as very genuine, and he wouldn't put in effort to try and disguise his intentions that well unless he really wanted Mafia to win, and there really isn't anything indicating that.

Thanks.

[yavuzovic]

No worries I am here ending my reaction test.
##vote et
I had nothing to do and decided to do a reaction test to see if anyone joins me on no lynch. Nobody did but now I suspect connor little more, I need few minutes to read the recent posts though, we just need this flip and we will have more information - or a lost game

[yavuzovic]

I haven't been absent too

[connorcompton]

No worries I am here ending my reaction test.
##vote et
I had nothing to do and decided to do a reaction test to see if anyone joins me on no lynch. Nobody did but now I suspect connor little more, I need few minutes to read the recent posts though, we just need this flip and we will have more information - or a lost game

Well Done :)

[connorcompton]

No worries I am here ending my reaction test.
##vote et
I had nothing to do and decided to do a reaction test to see if anyone joins me on no lynch. Nobody did but now I suspect connor little more, I need few minutes to read the recent posts though, we just need this flip and we will have more information - or a lost game

Also, I wouldn't mind knowing why you suspect me a little more.

[et]

If third party supporting town after lost is common sense, I might disrespect that.
Sorry.
But I didn't think that is common sense, that was not understandable at all.
So I was very sad. Connor, thank you to tell me. And Yav, thanks, your vote encouraged me, although that was reaction test.

ND, I value logic above feeling. Sorry for irritating and irritated. I don't fit you. But I don't hate you. And I really believe you didn't scout me at Night1. Can I confirm that after this game ends? Please don't take that disrespect for you. Just I don't feel so bad third party telling lie.

Durga, you were oasis of this serious game. I don't like sheeping townclear player. So I didn't talk with you so much after you revealed you are innocent child.

EspressoPlatinum, I think you were true winner in Day2 face off. You were far more towny than me. If I were the third town, I must vote me.

Anyway, I have enjoyed this game in totally.
Thank you all.

[Jamiet99uk]

ORDER IN COURT!
DAY HAS ENDED
- PLEASE HOLD -

[Jamiet99uk]

D7 final Vote Count:
et (5) connorcompton, Percy Williams, Squigs44, Foxcastle, Yavuzovic
No‑Lynch (1) et

KEEP HOLDING

[Jamiet99uk]

GM NOTE

Worcej has the flavour post for this lynch, and is having to log in using his cellphone, so please wait a few moments. Keep holding.

[worcej]

EOD7 Flavor
Phoenix stood behind the defence podium, his hands tightly gripping the side. On the stand stood the old portly man with a clown nose, the one that was previously a suspect several days before. The evidence in front of him was a confession of guilt from a known murderer. It wasn’t enough to stick...

“Well Mr. Wright?” The replacement Judge asked impatiently. “Do you have any other evidence to condone this man?”

Phoenix sat looking down at the sheets, desperate for a new break.

“Well, I don’t know why I am here again. I was innocent before and I am innocent now. It’s almost like you’re submitting me to double jeopardy here...”

The replacement Judge perks up. “Oh I love that show! We shouldn’t hold you any longer to prevent you from being there.”

Suddenly, Phoenix has a breakthrough. Right as the Judge is about to slam down the gavel...

“HOLD IT!!!”

Air swooshing begins to fill the room as Phoenix begins his epic pointing skills. He aims his finger at the man and the air flows violently in his direction.

“Double Jeopardy isn’t a show, but an archaic legal term that is completely irrelevant in our current legal system. Few people would know what that is, unless they were a LAW PROFESSOR!”

The air knocks the clown nose off the man, and everyone gasps to see ​
Aristotle Means standing on the stand.

The Judge gasps. “Oh wow, your disguise was so perfect, no wonder the former Judge let you go away innocent! I was about to declare your innocence, but you don’t deserve any freedom! Take him away!”

Bailiffs grab Aristotle, throw a gag in his mouth, and drag him out of the courtroom. Phoenix sighs in relief, knowing he is one step closer to solving the case and getting justice for the fallen.

Et HAS BEEN LYNCHED. HE WAS Aristotle Means, the MAFIA LAWYER!

NIGHT 7 HAS BEGUN, YOU MAY NOW POST

[connorcompton]

4-1! We can do this!

[connorcompton]

4-1! We can do this!

(3-1 after tonight then 2-1 after no-lynch but still)

[connorcompton]

Interesting probability problem:

A, B, and C are in the final 3 of a Mafia game, person C is Mafia.
One person must be lynched, or town loses. Assume someone will be lynched.
Knowing nothing more about this game, what are the chances town wins?

There are two different ways of looking at this that I can think of.

1) There are three people, one must be lynched, if C is lynched, town win. each has 33% chance. 33% chance town win.

2) From A's perspective, they have a choice of two people. There is a 50% chance they vote correctly. B also has a 50% chance of guessing correctly. For town to win, A and B must guess correctly. 25% chance they vote for eachother, C votes for one of them and town loses. 25% chance of A votes C, B votes A, C will then vote A, town loses. 25% chance the opposite happens, and only a 25% chance they both vote C and town wins. 25% chance town wins.

I'm not really sure here.

Not relevant to the game, but I think it's interesting.

[Percy Williams]

Whoo! I was really worried we were voting for a townie, I townread him so long, and he put up a good fight. I can almost taste our victory now.

[Foxcastle]

Good game, et, hope to see you in a future game.

[connorcompton]

I think et did a great job of making me worry. Well done for never stopping, et.

[Foxcastle]

Interesting probability problem:

A, B, and C are in the final 3 of a Mafia game, person C is Mafia.
One person must be lynched, or town loses. Assume someone will be lynched.
Knowing nothing more about this game, what are the chances town wins?

There are two different ways of looking at this that I can think of.

1) There are three people, one must be lynched, if C is lynched, town win. each has 33% chance. 33% chance town win.

2) From A's perspective, they have a choice of two people. There is a 50% chance they vote correctly. B also has a 50% chance of guessing correctly. For town to win, A and B must guess correctly. 25% chance they vote for eachother, C votes for one of them and town loses. 25% chance of A votes C, B votes A, C will then vote A, town loses. 25% chance the opposite happens, and only a 25% chance they both vote C and town wins. 25% chance town wins.

I'm not really sure here.

Not relevant to the game, but I think it's interesting.

Proposition 2 is phrased confusingly, but it looks wrong to me.