Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

[Jamiet99uk]

##CALL GM - The site's issues doesn't affect the Mafia QT - thus I think it's an unfair advantage for Mafia to get an extra 24 hours to change their Night actions. I think that the Mafia's Night actions should be enforced based on what they were at what would of been the end of this night (before the extra 24 hours were added), as they were completely unaffected by the site's troubles - and thus shouldn't be allowed to be changed from what they originally would of been executed as.

GM NOTE

What you think is noted. However, this phase extension was requested by multiple players, and we feel it is a fair solution to a situation completely out of our hands. Literally doubling the length of the night phase allows everyone ample time to participate in the phase. That is all.

[ChippeRock]

##CALL GM - The site's issues doesn't affect the Mafia QT - thus I think it's an unfair advantage for Mafia to get an extra 24 hours to change their Night actions. I think that the Mafia's Night actions should be enforced based on what they were at what would of been the end of this night (before the extra 24 hours were added), as they were completely unaffected by the site's troubles - and thus shouldn't be allowed to be changed from what they originally would of been executed as.

GM NOTE

What you think is noted. However, this phase extension was requested by multiple players, and we feel it is a fair solution to a situation completely out of our hands. Literally doubling the length of the night phase allows everyone ample time to participate in the phase. That is all.

You are giving Mafia an extra 24 hours that they would not of had if the site hadn't gone down. It's not a "fair solution" to give Mafia extra time to change their roleblock and potentially (though unlikely) change their NK.

Mafia's Night actions should not be allowed to change - since it's after when Night should of ended. The Mafia QT was not affected by the site's issues, therefore, Mafia's Night actions were unaffected by the site's issues - meaning the extra time gives Mafia an unfair advantage.

[Squigs44]

##CALL GM - The site's issues doesn't affect the Mafia QT - thus I think it's an unfair advantage for Mafia to get an extra 24 hours to change their Night actions. I think that the Mafia's Night actions should be enforced based on what they were at what would of been the end of this night (before the extra 24 hours were added), as they were completely unaffected by the site's troubles - and thus shouldn't be allowed to be changed from what they originally would of been executed as.

GM NOTE

What you think is noted. However, this phase extension was requested by multiple players, and we feel it is a fair solution to a situation completely out of our hands. Literally doubling the length of the night phase allows everyone ample time to participate in the phase. That is all.

You are giving Mafia an extra 24 hours that they would not of had if the site hadn't gone down. It's not a "fair solution" to give Mafia extra time to change their roleblock and potentially (though unlikely) change their NK.

Mafia's Night actions should not be allowed to change - since it's after when Night should of ended. The Mafia QT was not affected by the site's issues, therefore, Mafia's Night actions were unaffected by the site's issues - meaning the extra time gives Mafia an unfair advantage.

Chippe - do you actually believe restricting mafia to not being able to react to 20 hours of content is fair?

[ChippeRock]

GM NOTE

What you think is noted. However, this phase extension was requested by multiple players, and we feel it is a fair solution to a situation completely out of our hands. Literally doubling the length of the night phase allows everyone ample time to participate in the phase. That is all.

You are giving Mafia an extra 24 hours that they would not of had if the site hadn't gone down. It's not a "fair solution" to give Mafia extra time to change their roleblock and potentially (though unlikely) change their NK.

Mafia's Night actions should not be allowed to change - since it's after when Night should of ended. The Mafia QT was not affected by the site's issues, therefore, Mafia's Night actions were unaffected by the site's issues - meaning the extra time gives Mafia an unfair advantage.

Chippe - do you actually believe restricting mafia to not being able to react to 20 hours of content is fair?

The forum was apparently unaffected - so my point still stands.

[Jamiet99uk]

You are giving Mafia an extra 24 hours that they would not of had if the site hadn't gone down. It's not a "fair solution" to give Mafia extra time to change their roleblock and potentially (though unlikely) change their NK.

Mafia's Night actions should not be allowed to change - since it's after when Night should of ended. The Mafia QT was not affected by the site's issues, therefore, Mafia's Night actions were unaffected by the site's issues - meaning the extra time gives Mafia an unfair advantage.

Night has NOT ended. Forcing Mafia to lock in their actions at the original phase end point, when play continues and new information could be revealed in the thread as the extended night continues, would potentially place them at a very seriously unfair disadvantage. It is the general rule here that people with night actions may change them up to the end of the night phase, unless specifically stated otherwise. The night phase is currently continuing.

This is the last word in relation to your demand. If you still don't like it, take it up your complaint after the game has ended.

[FlaviusAetius]

We shouldnt talk at Night though, or then Mafia can react and do things, come up with plans etc etc

[ChippeRock]

You are giving Mafia an extra 24 hours that they would not of had if the site hadn't gone down. It's not a "fair solution" to give Mafia extra time to change their roleblock and potentially (though unlikely) change their NK.

Mafia's Night actions should not be allowed to change - since it's after when Night should of ended. The Mafia QT was not affected by the site's issues, therefore, Mafia's Night actions were unaffected by the site's issues - meaning the extra time gives Mafia an unfair advantage.

Night has NOT ended. Forcing Mafia to lock in their actions at the original phase end point, when play continues and new information could be revealed in the thread as the extended night continues, would potentially place them at a very seriously unfair disadvantage. It is the general rule here that people with night actions may change them up to the end of the night phase, unless specifically stated otherwise. The night phase is currently continuing.

This is the last word in relation to your demand. If you still don't like it, take it up your complaint after the game has ended.

"Disadvantage"? Really? Fucking bullshit. Their QT was completely unaffected - allowing them more time to communicate with each other and figure out who they want to NK and RB is completely unfair to town. The forum was completely unaffected as well from what I hear.

Pulls the "disadvantage" card, SMH...

[ChippeRock]

Just realized this, but doesn't damo being the Assassin kind of put to bed the whole "Flav panicked and used his Day kill" theory to rest? I'm not saying he's not scum, but it was a major pillar for the scum case on him...

Anybody have any theories on why damo used his Day kill so early than? Grasping for good reasons on why he would use it so early...

Also, with Neph & rdrivera confirmed to be the Judge & Reporter and Durga revealed as the Innocent Child - this confirms that Tom was a VT, right? I doubt they killed a Mafia member, and the Blind Assassin is still running around...

[Durga]

Right... Well... Chippe is probably actually not mafia, surprisingly.

[ND]

This is going to be a big post. Please bare with me. I will outline my thoughts about Fox and ET and definitively state my case about who I believe is the scumteam and that is Fox-ET. I have eliminated Percy as a potential candidate and I will explain why. We will start with vote history and be using the final tally.

D5 is fairly useless. Everyone was on Damo.

D4: Teacon v Foxcastle
Teacon (7) Peterlund (scum), et (?), Damo666 (scum), Durga (town),ND (town), Foxcastle (?), Squigs (?)
Foxcastle (6) ChippieRock (?), Teacon (Town), Neph (Town), Percy (?), Conner (?), Flav (?)

Day 4 Speculation: If we approach this with the final scrum team being ET-Fox then that would mean the entire scrum team was on Teacon. Why? Why would the entire scum team prefer to lynch Teacon over Fox? If D4 was TvT then I would expect to see a mixed result because it wouldn’t matter in a TvT who was lynched. We already know, point of fact, that two scum members are on Teacon (Damo/Peter). If ET and Fox are also scum then it is a group of four scum on Teacon. This implies that Fox is scum simply because it illustrates an effort to save Foxcastle in a TvM scenario not TvT.

D3: Xorxes v Teacon v Fox V Percy
Xorxes (10): Durga (town), Percy (?), Neph (town), Teacon (town), ND (town), Et (?), rd (town), Balki (scum), Squigs (?), Flav (?)
Teacon (4): Peter (scum), Damo (scum), Conner (?), Fox (?)
Fox (1): Chippie (?)
Percy (1): xorxes (?)

Day 3 Speculation: Xorxes votes Percy as an outlier tertiary wagon vote D1 and D3. If he was bussing Percy there would be more force behind the vote. There really isn’t much. A point in Percy’s favor of not being scum. Fox on the other hand joins Peter and Damo (both scum) to vote Teacon. The Teacon wagon failed drastically. Balki fake claiming BA votes Xorxes and there is just too much pressure on Xorxes. ET always votes the primary wagon which is his pattern throughout the game. We don’t see a united scum team effort to save Xorxes because a) Xorxes doesn’t join Teacon, ET votes dominant wagon, and Balki doesn’t join Teacon. They probably knew that it was fruitless to try. Still though two flipped scum vote Teacon and if Fox is also scum then that would make 3 votes on Teacon D3 scum. A very high amount of scum on Teacon when the Xorxes wagon has so much momentum.

D2: ET v Espresso
Espresso (10): TrPrado (town), damo (scum), Fox (?), ET (?), Neph (town), xorxes (scum), Percy (?), Balki (scum), Teacon (town), Chippie (?)
ET (9): Rd (town), conner (?), Espresso (town), Squigs (?), ND (town), Durga (town), Tom (town), Peter (scum), Flav (?)

Day 2 Speculation: Like D4 we see two forced wagons. Like D4 we see a high concentration of scum on one wagon. D4 we saw all scum (assuming Fox-ET are scum on Teacon). D2 we see 5 out of 6 scum on Espresso. Peter is the only outlier vote and he just joined the game and I don’t think his outlier vote means much especially if he was just trying to catch up. It’s totally within the realm of reason to operate under a theory that he was not informed in his vote here. If Fox and ET are scum then the rest of the scum team (Xorxes, Balki, Damo, ET, and Fox are all on Espresso. That’s five out of six of the scum team and a full half of the voters on Espresso being scum. That’s enough momentum to carry the wagon if they can get some town to go along with it. Their objective was to clearly save ET just as it was to save Fox D4. D2 and D4 are major indicators to me for why ET and Fox are scum: a) the effort to save both, b) the concentration of scum, c) the preferment of the known flipped mafia members for one candidate (town) over the other. I reason that if D2 and D4 were TvT then the mafia team would be mixed in their votes (as we will see below, i.e. day 1). There wouldn’t be a preference really for either candidate because in a TvT it doesn’t really matter who dies so long as it’s a town that dies. We do not see this pattern in D2 and D4 instead we see scum prefer one wagon over the other, why? Because one of the wagons was town and one of the wagons was scum.

D1: Bozo v Flav v Cruaader v Chippie v Percy v No Lynch
Bozo (11): Percy (?), et (?), Damo (Scum), Squigs (?), Chippie (?), Conner (?), Carl (Town), Flav (?), Rd (town), Neph (town), Tom (Town)
Flav (7): Balki (scum), Darg (town), Fox (?), Moscow (scum), Trprado (town), Durga (town), Bozo (town)
Cruaader (2): ND (town), Teacon (town)
Chippie (1): Espresso (town)
Percy (1): Xorxes (scum)
No Lynch (1): Cruaader (town)

Day 1 Speculation: Very disorienting to look at this. This is what I would expect on a day where the primary and secondary wagons (and tertiary) are town. The scum team in this situation don’t group because there is no reason to do so. There is no risk to them so their votes are scattered. Assuming Fox and ET are scum we see ET vote the dominant wagon as usual. He is joined by Damo. This means that Bozo was lynched by a primary town driven wagon. 9 out of the 11 votes on Bozo were town if this analysis is accurate. The scum were most concentrated on Flav with 3 (Balki, Fox, Moscow). Xorxes was an outlier vote like D4 on Percy. But, again, this is a representation of what I would expect the scum to do in almost any situation when they don’t prefer a wagon and there is no reason to group vote. D1 is the antithesis of D2, D4, and even to some extent D3. D1 is town chaos D2 and D4 are mafia driven and manipulated days.

Highlights:
ET-Fox group when necessary to save a team mate.
ET so far has only voted the dominant wagon.
Scum are highly concentrated on both the Teacon D4 and Espresso D2 wagon.
Xorxes didn’t push Percy with the force I would expect him to do for a bus (meta) on Percy if Percy was in fact scum.
Scum were scattered D1 which indicates that D1 was TvT (Bozo is known town and I assume that Flav is town or BA)
Peter’s vote on ET over Espresso isn’t that theory breaking because we have to factor in that Peter had just joined the game. It’s totally possible he just put a vote in that doesn’t outweigh the high concentration of scum on Espresso over ET.
Neph actually picked two wagons that were TVM and we, the town, lynched town both times.
If ET and Fox are in fact the last two scum then they only voted together D2 and D4. Those are two lynchpin days if this is in fact true. It would fit the theory of the scum clustering together those days to save both ET and Fox.
Taking the vote metrics together as a whole we know for a fact that some members of the scum team have voted together. Peter and Damo voted together several times (D3 and D4). Xorxes and Balki voted with Damo (and ET, Fox) D2 on Espresso over ET.
By just looking at known scum members we see a pattern of scum grouping D2 and D4 on the dominant wagon which indicates they preferred the dominant wagon over the secondary wagon in both cases the secondary wagon just happened to be someone who stands a good chance, a great chance, at being scum (ET/Fox). This is circumstantial, but it fits the pattern and theory that ET and Fox are the final two scum.

Limited Fox and ET ISO
This is a limited ISO focusing on Fox and ET interactions.

There are two interesting observations to start (Page 1-2) and (Page 95) between Fox and ET.
Fox (1-2) asks ET how much mafia experience he has. Nothing major on it’s own. Fox (95) in a response to Carl N1 about who is present and lurking Fox says this: “And Percy is the only one who was actually absent. Et and Damo were present but lurking.” This in my opinion is an example of softing or prepping a future vote (if needed). We know Damo is scum. In a response to Carl, Fox basically gives out two members of his team (ET and Damo (confirmed). If he ever needs to bus or justify a vote he can point back to this if absolutely necessary stating that he was suspicious of them for muh lurking N1. He links ET and Damo.

Seemingly, continuing this trend on Page (104) Fox begins to talk about lurking (again remember the link to ET and Damo previously) and relationships between scum. He also talks a bit about game solving. He gives a potential scum team here with ET being mentioned and states that he has a method or there is a method (his ?) I guess his analytical method (which we see later in the form of a spreadsheet (?) predicts scum in: connor, et, neph, percy, tom, teacon. In this post we know that Neph, Teacon, and Tom are all town so it is already half wrong. I doubt highly that Percy and Connor are scum. Thus his method is actually 1 for 6. But, then again Fox is scum. Still he continues the trend here on 104 of linking ET to lurking and being scum which he starts on Page 95. *As a note I am not sure exactly on re-read what this method is in reference to I assume his "method"*

Yet once the Judge makes it between Espresso and ET Fox says: “Et and EspressoPatronum seem like a terrible face-off.” (120) with this again on (123) “Having reread et and EspressoPatronum, et looks like the townier of the two.” This is an interesting turnaround if you factor in what he just said on Page 95 and 104. In both cited examples he gives ET as being one of the scumteam and doesn’t mention Espresso. This whole example in the ISO illustrates a contradiction and that contradiction is his vote for Espresso over ET. He has to justify a vote on EP because he had previously scumread ET and now can’t follow that read thus ending in a contradictory and forced vote here to save his teammate ET. It’s an example of contrived and contradictory play.

He gives a few more posts about ET on Page 138 and 161 but the gist is that he prefers EP over ET. Additionally, he does link Damo with being town on 161 and Teacon being scum on 161. Here we see how he continues his scumread on Teacon which first is pushed out on Page 104, but is now reading Damo as town when originally he was saying Damo was a lurker (Page 95). His scum read on ET didn’t survive 16 pages. As soon as the Neph made it about ET-EP that scumread on ET was gone.

We see this evolution of his read on ET continue to change as well. On Page 192 he gives a towncore with ET in it. Damo is in his townlean. Peter is null. Xorxes/Flav/Teacon I guess are scum. His reads are pretty spread out on Page 192. But, I highlight this because of what will happen in a bit.

On Page 215, Fox in a response to me says that “ET isn’t off the hook” (215) which is a strange turnaround since he had previously listed ET in his ‘towncore’. However, by page 265 Fox is once again solidly town reading ET. In fact he gives ET his ultimate townread and top town player listing with Damo being his most scum player in the game. For me, this seems a bit forced at this point. Both players in Damo and ET have gone a long way since Page 95 where he linked them both to lurking which carries a negative connotation. Even his read of Damo doesn’t really seem to make a lot of sense since previously he had given damo a townlean on Page 192. Now it is true that prior to this Fox read update on 265 we had the whole duel roleblock situation play out between Damo and Conner. Yet, it’s surprising that Fox chooses to scumread Damo over Conner on Page 265. Because on Page 192 in his read update he gave Damo the townlean and Conner a null rating (with Peter). Why would he choose to scumread Damo over Conner when previously he had townread Damo over Conner? This is again a contradiction with his play. Based on his reads it doesn’t make sense. It’s not fluid. It’s a forced read based on his implicit knowledge (because he is scum he knows who his team is). He knows that if he pushes Conner over Damo and if Conner flips town that will not only doom Damo but also himself. He instead chooses to scumread Damo (flipping his read from 192) because of how he anticipates the duel rb situation playing out (I speculate). That’s what makes it forced and not genuine play. Question, why does he do this with Damo and not ET? Perhaps he had a good read on the thread and anticipated ET’s chances of surviving were greater than Damo’s. Furthermore, perhaps he thought his towncore read of ET would be better accepted than doing the same for Damo (and he thought the general mood of the thread was to lynch Damo over Conner so he wanted to get in on that). It’s a contradiction to be sure.

I think based on this ISO, and the vote analysis that his play is contradictory and contrived in several notable examples. I think his read on ET is contrived just like his read turnaround on Damo was contrived. It was a big mistake not lynching Fox when we had the chance.

So does looking at ET also yield any connections or results? I've already done two massive re-reads of ET and two ISO's but I bring this up because it's bizarre.

On Page 191 ET says about Fox, “Let's leave that aside for now.
I agree with not lyching Fox today.
For example if Fox is Hooker, we can know xorxes's fake claim.
But I can't expect that so much.
How can we say Fox as hooker now?
I don't have any idea.”

This is a bizarre post and I may have noted it before, but ET linking Fox to being scum and being the hooker is odd. I can’t remember if anyone else has linked Fox to being the hooker, but given that the ‘roleblocker’ is still alive and ET and Fox are an extremely likely scum pair (the scum pair in my opinion) this may be a slip on ET’s part. There are some other points where ET comments on Fox (55, 159, 179, 192, 249) In almost all of these examples ET is basically like I will look at Fox, Fox is suspicious for defending bozo (?), etc. There really isn’t a lot of substance to it. Basically ET just plopping down statements he can fall back on later if he needs to vote for someone because as we know ET is going to vote for whoever the lead wagon is.

In conclusion, I believe ET and Fox are the scum team and the best pair to fit that possibility. I believe the vote count backs this up as does the statements from both.

[ChippeRock]

This is going to be a big post. Please bare with me. I will outline my thoughts about Fox and ET and definitively state my case about who I believe is the scumteam and that is Fox-ET. I have eliminated Percy as a potential candidate and I will explain why. We will start with vote history and be using the final tally.

D5 is fairly useless. Everyone was on Damo.

D4: Teacon v Foxcastle
Teacon (7) Peterlund (scum), et (?), Damo666 (scum), Durga (town),ND (town), Foxcastle (?), Squigs (?)
Foxcastle (6) ChippieRock (?), Teacon (Town), Neph (Town), Percy (?), Conner (?), Flav (?)

Day 4 Speculation: If we approach this with the final scrum team being ET-Fox then that would mean the entire scrum team was on Teacon. Why? Why would the entire scum team prefer to lynch Teacon over Fox? If D4 was TvT then I would expect to see a mixed result because it wouldn’t matter in a TvT who was lynched. We already know, point of fact, that two scum members are on Teacon (Damo/Peter). If ET and Fox are also scum then it is a group of four scum on Teacon. This implies that Fox is scum simply because it illustrates an effort to save Foxcastle in a TvM scenario not TvT.

D3: Xorxes v Teacon v Fox V Percy
Xorxes (10): Durga (town), Percy (?), Neph (town), Teacon (town), ND (town), Et (?), rd (town), Balki (scum), Squigs (?), Flav (?)
Teacon (4): Peter (scum), Damo (scum), Conner (?), Fox (?)
Fox (1): Chippie (?)
Percy (1): xorxes (?)

Day 3 Speculation: Xorxes votes Percy as an outlier tertiary wagon vote D1 and D3. If he was bussing Percy there would be more force behind the vote. There really isn’t much. A point in Percy’s favor of not being scum. Fox on the other hand joins Peter and Damo (both scum) to vote Teacon. The Teacon wagon failed drastically. Balki fake claiming BA votes Xorxes and there is just too much pressure on Xorxes. ET always votes the primary wagon which is his pattern throughout the game. We don’t see a united scum team effort to save Xorxes because a) Xorxes doesn’t join Teacon, ET votes dominant wagon, and Balki doesn’t join Teacon. They probably knew that it was fruitless to try. Still though two flipped scum vote Teacon and if Fox is also scum then that would make 3 votes on Teacon D3 scum. A very high amount of scum on Teacon when the Xorxes wagon has so much momentum.

D2: ET v Espresso
Espresso (10): TrPrado (town), damo (scum), Fox (?), ET (?), Neph (town), xorxes (scum), Percy (?), Balki (scum), Teacon (town), Chippie (?)
ET (9): Rd (town), conner (?), Espresso (town), Squigs (?), ND (town), Durga (town), Tom (town), Peter (scum), Flav (?)

Day 2 Speculation: Like D4 we see two forced wagons. Like D4 we see a high concentration of scum on one wagon. D4 we saw all scum (assuming Fox-ET are scum on Teacon). D2 we see 5 out of 6 scum on Espresso. Peter is the only outlier vote and he just joined the game and I don’t think his outlier vote means much especially if he was just trying to catch up. It’s totally within the realm of reason to operate under a theory that he was not informed in his vote here. If Fox and ET are scum then the rest of the scum team (Xorxes, Balki, Damo, ET, and Fox are all on Espresso. That’s five out of six of the scum team and a full half of the voters on Espresso being scum. That’s enough momentum to carry the wagon if they can get some town to go along with it. Their objective was to clearly save ET just as it was to save Fox D4. D2 and D4 are major indicators to me for why ET and Fox are scum: a) the effort to save both, b) the concentration of scum, c) the preferment of the known flipped mafia members for one candidate (town) over the other. I reason that if D2 and D4 were TvT then the mafia team would be mixed in their votes (as we will see below, i.e. day 1). There wouldn’t be a preference really for either candidate because in a TvT it doesn’t really matter who dies so long as it’s a town that dies. We do not see this pattern in D2 and D4 instead we see scum prefer one wagon over the other, why? Because one of the wagons was town and one of the wagons was scum.

D1: Bozo v Flav v Cruaader v Chippie v Percy v No Lynch
Bozo (11): Percy (?), et (?), Damo (Scum), Squigs (?), Chippie (?), Conner (?), Carl (Town), Flav (?), Rd (town), Neph (town), Tom (Town)
Flav (7): Balki (scum), Darg (town), Fox (?), Moscow (scum), Trprado (town), Durga (town), Bozo (town)
Cruaader (2): ND (town), Teacon (town)
Chippie (1): Espresso (town)
Percy (1): Xorxes (scum)
No Lynch (1): Cruaader (town)

Day 1 Speculation: Very disorienting to look at this. This is what I would expect on a day where the primary and secondary wagons (and tertiary) are town. The scum team in this situation don’t group because there is no reason to do so. There is no risk to them so their votes are scattered. Assuming Fox and ET are scum we see ET vote the dominant wagon as usual. He is joined by Damo. This means that Bozo was lynched by a primary town driven wagon. 9 out of the 11 votes on Bozo were town if this analysis is accurate. The scum were most concentrated on Flav with 3 (Balki, Fox, Moscow). Xorxes was an outlier vote like D4 on Percy. But, again, this is a representation of what I would expect the scum to do in almost any situation when they don’t prefer a wagon and there is no reason to group vote. D1 is the antithesis of D2, D4, and even to some extent D3. D1 is town chaos D2 and D4 are mafia driven and manipulated days.

Highlights:
ET-Fox group when necessary to save a team mate.
ET so far has only voted the dominant wagon.
Scum are highly concentrated on both the Teacon D4 and Espresso D2 wagon.
Xorxes didn’t push Percy with the force I would expect him to do for a bus (meta) on Percy if Percy was in fact scum.
Scum were scattered D1 which indicates that D1 was TvT (Bozo is known town and I assume that Flav is town or BA)
Peter’s vote on ET over Espresso isn’t that theory breaking because we have to factor in that Peter had just joined the game. It’s totally possible he just put a vote in that doesn’t outweigh the high concentration of scum on Espresso over ET.
Neph actually picked two wagons that were TVM and we, the town, lynched town both times.
If ET and Fox are in fact the last two scum then they only voted together D2 and D4. Those are two lynchpin days if this is in fact true. It would fit the theory of the scum clustering together those days to save both ET and Fox.
Taking the vote metrics together as a whole we know for a fact that some members of the scum team have voted together. Peter and Damo voted together several times (D3 and D4). Xorxes and Balki voted with Damo (and ET, Fox) D2 on Espresso over ET.
By just looking at known scum members we see a pattern of scum grouping D2 and D4 on the dominant wagon which indicates they preferred the dominant wagon over the secondary wagon in both cases the secondary wagon just happened to be someone who stands a good chance, a great chance, at being scum (ET/Fox). This is circumstantial, but it fits the pattern and theory that ET and Fox are the final two scum.

Limited Fox and ET ISO
This is a limited ISO focusing on Fox and ET interactions.

There are two interesting observations to start (Page 1-2) and (Page 95) between Fox and ET.
Fox (1-2) asks ET how much mafia experience he has. Nothing major on it’s own. Fox (95) in a response to Carl N1 about who is present and lurking Fox says this: “And Percy is the only one who was actually absent. Et and Damo were present but lurking.” This in my opinion is an example of softing or prepping a future vote (if needed). We know Damo is scum. In a response to Carl, Fox basically gives out two members of his team (ET and Damo (confirmed). If he ever needs to bus or justify a vote he can point back to this if absolutely necessary stating that he was suspicious of them for muh lurking N1. He links ET and Damo.

Seemingly, continuing this trend on Page (104) Fox begins to talk about lurking (again remember the link to ET and Damo previously) and relationships between scum. He also talks a bit about game solving. He gives a potential scum team here with ET being mentioned and states that he has a method or there is a method (his ?) I guess his analytical method (which we see later in the form of a spreadsheet (?) predicts scum in: connor, et, neph, percy, tom, teacon. In this post we know that Neph, Teacon, and Tom are all town so it is already half wrong. I doubt highly that Percy and Connor are scum. Thus his method is actually 1 for 6. But, then again Fox is scum. Still he continues the trend here on 104 of linking ET to lurking and being scum which he starts on Page 95. *As a note I am not sure exactly on re-read what this method is in reference to I assume his "method"*

Yet once the Judge makes it between Espresso and ET Fox says: “Et and EspressoPatronum seem like a terrible face-off.” (120) with this again on (123) “Having reread et and EspressoPatronum, et looks like the townier of the two.” This is an interesting turnaround if you factor in what he just said on Page 95 and 104. In both cited examples he gives ET as being one of the scumteam and doesn’t mention Espresso. This whole example in the ISO illustrates a contradiction and that contradiction is his vote for Espresso over ET. He has to justify a vote on EP because he had previously scumread ET and now can’t follow that read thus ending in a contradictory and forced vote here to save his teammate ET. It’s an example of contrived and contradictory play.

He gives a few more posts about ET on Page 138 and 161 but the gist is that he prefers EP over ET. Additionally, he does link Damo with being town on 161 and Teacon being scum on 161. Here we see how he continues his scumread on Teacon which first is pushed out on Page 104, but is now reading Damo as town when originally he was saying Damo was a lurker (Page 95). His scum read on ET didn’t survive 16 pages. As soon as the Neph made it about ET-EP that scumread on ET was gone.

We see this evolution of his read on ET continue to change as well. On Page 192 he gives a towncore with ET in it. Damo is in his townlean. Peter is null. Xorxes/Flav/Teacon I guess are scum. His reads are pretty spread out on Page 192. But, I highlight this because of what will happen in a bit.

On Page 215, Fox in a response to me says that “ET isn’t off the hook” (215) which is a strange turnaround since he had previously listed ET in his ‘towncore’. However, by page 265 Fox is once again solidly town reading ET. In fact he gives ET his ultimate townread and top town player listing with Damo being his most scum player in the game. For me, this seems a bit forced at this point. Both players in Damo and ET have gone a long way since Page 95 where he linked them both to lurking which carries a negative connotation. Even his read of Damo doesn’t really seem to make a lot of sense since previously he had given damo a townlean on Page 192. Now it is true that prior to this Fox read update on 265 we had the whole duel roleblock situation play out between Damo and Conner. Yet, it’s surprising that Fox chooses to scumread Damo over Conner on Page 265. Because on Page 192 in his read update he gave Damo the townlean and Conner a null rating (with Peter). Why would he choose to scumread Damo over Conner when previously he had townread Damo over Conner? This is again a contradiction with his play. Based on his reads it doesn’t make sense. It’s not fluid. It’s a forced read based on his implicit knowledge (because he is scum he knows who his team is). He knows that if he pushes Conner over Damo and if Conner flips town that will not only doom Damo but also himself. He instead chooses to scumread Damo (flipping his read from 192) because of how he anticipates the duel rb situation playing out (I speculate). That’s what makes it forced and not genuine play. Question, why does he do this with Damo and not ET? Perhaps he had a good read on the thread and anticipated ET’s chances of surviving were greater than Damo’s. Furthermore, perhaps he thought his towncore read of ET would be better accepted than doing the same for Damo (and he thought the general mood of the thread was to lynch Damo over Conner so he wanted to get in on that). It’s a contradiction to be sure.

I think based on this ISO, and the vote analysis that his play is contradictory and contrived in several notable examples. I think his read on ET is contrived just like his read turnaround on Damo was contrived. It was a big mistake not lynching Fox when we had the chance.

So does looking at ET also yield any connections or results? I've already done two massive re-reads of ET and two ISO's but I bring this up because it's bizarre.

On Page 191 ET says about Fox, “Let's leave that aside for now.
I agree with not lyching Fox today.
For example if Fox is Hooker, we can know xorxes's fake claim.
But I can't expect that so much.
How can we say Fox as hooker now?
I don't have any idea.”

This is a bizarre post and I may have noted it before, but ET linking Fox to being scum and being the hooker is odd. I can’t remember if anyone else has linked Fox to being the hooker, but given that the ‘roleblocker’ is still alive and ET and Fox are an extremely likely scum pair (the scum pair in my opinion) this may be a slip on ET’s part. There are some other points where ET comments on Fox (55, 159, 179, 192, 249) In almost all of these examples ET is basically like I will look at Fox, Fox is suspicious for defending bozo (?), etc. There really isn’t a lot of substance to it. Basically ET just plopping down statements he can fall back on later if he needs to vote for someone because as we know ET is going to vote for whoever the lead wagon is.

In conclusion, I believe ET and Fox are the scum team and the best pair to fit that possibility. I believe the vote count backs this up as does the statements from both.

Fucking hell, those vote speculations were biased as fuck! Really ND? You're trying to tell us that, on Day 4, ALL of scum voted for 1 person - not 3-1 or 2-2, but 4-0? You're also trying to tell me that on Day 2, 5/6 scum were on Espresso - not 4-2, or 3-3, but fucking 5-1?? You even try to justify that it was only 5-1 because peter "was trying to catch up" and "was not informed in his vote"??

You've truly lost it ND; this is tunneling at its finest - and I just can't understand why you, of all damn people, is the one spewing stupidity. The only explanation that makes sense is that you're scum, because there's no way an experienced player like you would try to state that with a straight face!

Also, no mention that while perhaps et has been on the lynch wagon every day, that et was one of the first on bozo's wagon? And bozo's wagon was going nowhere until the VERY last minutes?

So much damn tunneling on et from you ND - the pieces of the puzzle don't fit together. I agree et's play is VERY suspect, but trying to back yourself up on your scum team read by speculating that scum voted in unison not once, but twice?!?

Other than your obscene tunneling on et and disregarding your "speculation", I do agree that Fox needs to be lynched next - I agree with your points on his gameplay. However, I don't agree with your scumteam, because you're crazy enough to think that scum voted in unison not once, but twice. Despite this, I do think that your points on Fox's play are some good ones - and while I don't agree with your scumteam, which you're making some serious leaps and bounds trying to justify, I think you're right about Fox.

[ChippeRock]

Also, could someone state what the town case on Squigs is? I remember someone (probably Durga?) stating that he's "as clear town as you can be without being mechanically cleared" or something to that effect. Could somebody explain why this is the case?

[Squigs44]

Also, could someone state what the town case on Squigs is? I remember someone (probably Durga?) stating that he's "as clear town as you can be without being mechanically cleared" or something to that effect. Could somebody explain why this is the case?

Because my role PM says I'm town.

Hey ND, the main disagreement I have with your case is your D2 vote analysis. MoscowFleet had voted for EP, so to me it doesn't make sense for mafia Peter to show up and right off the bat vote a mafia mate. Why not just stick with Moscows vote? Am I correct that you speculate that Peter didn't even look at his mafia team when he put that vote down? I feel like the first thing Peter did was figure out who his team was and what was happening. Mafia doesn't just put out a careless vote.

[Squigs44]

This might have broken my ND Fox team though...

[ChippeRock]

Also, could someone state what the town case on Squigs is? I remember someone (probably Durga?) stating that he's "as clear town as you can be without being mechanically cleared" or something to that effect. Could somebody explain why this is the case?

Because my role PM says I'm town.

That's called "mechanically cleared" dipshit.

[Durga]

Sorry I wanted to read tonight and put down my thoughts but I didn't get a chance to

[Durga]

We know there was at least one scum on et, I'm willing to bet there's a high chance there was too. I don't like how he's fallen off my radar but I think there's a high chance that was town v town.

The teacon v xorxes wagon was also interesting. I think it makes Fox look bad.

I'm convinced d1 was either all town or town vs 3rd party.

[ND]

@Chippie: I think your reaction is kind of bizarre. This is my quick paraphrase: ‘ND is scum and bad for tunneling ET! ND is stupid, but tunneling at it’s finest! His vote speculation is biased as fuck! But, I agree with you on Fox! Let’s lynch Fox next! I think your right on Fox!’ end paraphrasing.

I don’t think the speculation on the vote tallies are biased at all. I am operating under the assumption that ET and Fox are scum. I’ve disqualified everyone else for various reasons. That leaves those two. Am I just not supposed to go over why I argue ET is scum and review the evidence? That doesn’t make any sense. You yourself think Fox is scum (you just said it). That means that D2 and D4 by your own admission it would have been at a minimum 4 out of 6 scum on Espresso (over half the team) and 3 out of 4 on teacon (three fourths the team). Yet you make a huge deal out of my analysis? Dude, you are almost there yourself! By your own logic it is already a super high concentration of scum on those two days just short of my own reasoning.

What makes the most sense D4 and D2 that they are TvT or TvM? In a TvT scenario as I write in my analysis there just isn’t any logical reason for scum to group vote. Why concentrate vote when a townie is going to die? There is no reason for them to save anyone. It doesn’t matter who dies as long as it isn’t them. We know based on the flips that they are concentrating votes and if Fox is scum (as you think as I think) then that further means more concentration of votes (as I speculate above and you lampoon despite having similar thoughts). In a TvM scenario, it does matter who dies because everyone of them that dies means their win condition is harder to accomplish. Thus, in a TvM scenario it makes logical sense to group vote and guess what we are seeing scum group vote D2 (Espresso) and D4 (Teacon) and again on D3 (Teacon). Scum scatter vote D1 which is different than the other days implying it's not TvM but TvT.


@Squigs: I said in my analysis that I don’t think it’s theory breaking. I don’t think it’s theory breaking because I have noted a connection between Fox and ET and also Damo (see limited Fox-ET ISO). I have noted that Fox and ET vote together on the lynchpin days (D2 and D4). To be fair, it is something I did consider in length during this review because Peter’s D2 vote is an outlier and maybe even a hole. Do I think that it outweighs everything else? No. And I have no idea what Peter did or didn’t do when he joined the game. If I subbed into a game and rolled scum I, personally, would look at my team. It could be as simple as him bussing ET or not wanting to be associated with his team. I could conjecture all day on it. But, I don’t think it outweighs the rest of the case, no.

@Durga: “We know there was at least one scum on et I'm willing to bet there's a high chance there was too” Well if I am wrong and it’s not Fox and ET as the scumteam then that means the other scum on ET must have been one of these: Connor, Squigs, or Flav. None of them really make sense to be the scumteam for various reasons. If Fox is scum then as I pointed out in my reply above to Chippie then that means 4 out of 6 scum are on Espresso and that is already a very large concentration of scum on someone else, why would they care which of Espresso and ET is lynched D2 and pool their votes like that if it’s TvT? That again doesn’t make sense.

So, by process of elimination it has to be Fox and Et.

[ChippeRock]

@Chippie: I think your reaction is kind of bizarre. This is my quick paraphrase: ‘ND is scum and bad for tunneling ET! ND is stupid, but tunneling at it’s finest! His vote speculation is biased as fuck! But, I agree with you on Fox! Let’s lynch Fox next! I think your right on Fox!’ end paraphrasing.

I don’t think the speculation on the vote tallies are biased at all. I am operating under the assumption that ET and Fox are scum. I’ve disqualified everyone else for various reasons. That leaves those two. Am I just not supposed to go over why I argue ET is scum and review the evidence? That doesn’t make any sense. You yourself think Fox is scum (you just said it). That means that D2 and D4 by your own admission it would have been at a minimum 4 out of 6 scum on Espresso (over half the team) and 3 out of 4 on teacon (three fourths the team). Yet you make a huge deal out of my analysis? Dude, you are almost there yourself! By your own logic it is already a super high concentration of scum on those two days just short of my own reasoning.

What makes the most sense D4 and D2 that they are TvT or TvM? In a TvT scenario as I write in my analysis there just isn’t any logical reason for scum to group vote. Why concentrate vote when a townie is going to die? There is no reason for them to save anyone. It doesn’t matter who dies as long as it isn’t them. We know based on the flips that they are concentrating votes and if Fox is scum (as you think as I think) then that further means more concentration of votes (as I speculate above and you lampoon despite having similar thoughts). In a TvM scenario, it does matter who dies because everyone of them that dies means their win condition is harder to accomplish. Thus, in a TvM scenario it makes logical sense to group vote and guess what we are seeing scum group vote D2 (Espresso) and D4 (Teacon) and again on D3 (Teacon). Scum scatter vote D1 which is different than the other days implying it's not TvM but TvT.


@Squigs: I said in my analysis that I don’t think it’s theory breaking. I don’t think it’s theory breaking because I have noted a connection between Fox and ET and also Damo (see limited Fox-ET ISO). I have noted that Fox and ET vote together on the lynchpin days (D2 and D4). To be fair, it is something I did consider in length during this review because Peter’s D2 vote is an outlier and maybe even a hole. Do I think that it outweighs everything else? No. And I have no idea what Peter did or didn’t do when he joined the game. If I subbed into a game and rolled scum I, personally, would look at my team. It could be as simple as him bussing ET or not wanting to be associated with his team. I could conjecture all day on it. But, I don’t think it outweighs the rest of the case, no.

@Durga: “We know there was at least one scum on et I'm willing to bet there's a high chance there was too” Well if I am wrong and it’s not Fox and ET as the scumteam then that means the other scum on ET must have been one of these: Connor, Squigs, or Flav. None of them really make sense to be the scumteam for various reasons. If Fox is scum then as I pointed out in my reply above to Chippie then that means 4 out of 6 scum are on Espresso and that is already a very large concentration of scum on someone else, why would they care which of Espresso and ET is lynched D2 and pool their votes like that if it’s TvT? That again doesn’t make sense.

So, by process of elimination it has to be Fox and Et.

No, what I said was that your "speculations" about the votes was just a bunch of tunneling stupidity. I have no problem with your analysis, just your "speculations".

@ND, even with TvM - scum wouldn't be so bold as to vote 4-0 or 5-1. Additionally, are you trying to state that the two times Neph used his power he captured exactly 1 scum both times? AND Town mislynched BOTH times? AND scum block-voted BOTH times?

Sorry, I'm just not seeing it. You're trying to state that scum block-voted not once, but twice - risking ALL of their necks just for 1 scum buddy. Sorry, just not seeing it.

[ND]

K well d4, if fox is scum then at a minimum they block voted three out of four on teacon same d3. So yeah they block voted. At least twice. Definitely more than twice though.