Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

[xorxes]

ND: Probably town.

Hard hitting question alert!...

Why?

He hasn't done anything that looked bad to me, although most of the impression comes from the early part of the game and he has been more absent lately.

[Foxcastle]

Sorry for lack of participation today. It will likely persist through this evening and tomorrow (though I should be able to be on for EOD) as I'm hosed with work stuff that fell on my head this morning.

[Durga]

You're not the innocent child. If you are, you should absolutely reveal because you are under a lot of suspicion and this isn't helping.

Secondly, the scum team isn't going to kill the innocent child for a long time. So you're not harming them.

Thirdly, please explain what you're talking about regarding the thing you're hiding. Stop hiding it.

[Durga]

Sorry for lack of participation today. It will likely persist through this evening and tomorrow (though I should be able to be on for EOD) as I'm hosed with work stuff that fell on my head this morning.

is this the lurker scum!fox that i know so well?

[ChippeRock]

You're not the innocent child. If you are, you should absolutely reveal because you are under a lot of suspicion and this isn't helping.

Secondly, the scum team isn't going to kill the innocent child for a long time. So you're not harming them.

Thirdly, please explain what you're talking about regarding the thing you're hiding. Stop hiding it.

Please @ whoever this is to. Innocent Child should absolutely not reveal, because if they did, than that confirms Neph is either scum or Judge - which is certainly not in town's best interests (unless Balki turns out to be scum). Though the Innocent Child won't get killed in a very long time, there are still other consequences to him revealing.

[Durga]

where is squigs, i can't engage chippe

last post was @ percy

[Foxcastle]

I think it's true that Xorxes doesn't bus. I was looking at some of his recent games (he's rolled scum a lot lately), and I think that's true. But it's also a useless factoid this game with him on Percy on D1 and with the judge on D2. He is usually on one of the lead wagons.

[ChippeRock]

where is squigs, i can't engage chippe

last post was @ percy

Because you can't find an argument against my opinions.

Judge is definitely more important than the Reporter - the Reporter has a 2/15 chance of watching somebody who can be 100% confirmed as scum. The other 13/15, we wouldn't know if they're scum or town (but most likely town). Why there's even a defense for the Reporter is ridiculous in my opinion.

[Squigs44]

Guys Percy is being purposefully confusing to try to hide PRs. It's pointless but not scummy.

Innocent child can reveal if they want but if they feel safe I personally think there is more value in them waiting.

Chippe stop talking about Durga. You've made yourself clear so start focusing on other people.

[Durga]

i thought if trump played mafia it would be really similar to ND's playstyle but i think i'm wrong now

[xorxes]

- PR hunting and BA hunting
- Above with little attempts at solving
- Hedgy play with the other whom I believe to be sum

A xorxes flip provides more although I think Percy is more likely. A Percy flip increases my xorx read which then allows me to be fully happy lynching him. I suppose I would lunch xorx today but would prefer percy.

You think I'm bussing Percy? I'm fine with that.

Only scum Xorxes is fine with this. I
If its Town Xorxes, then he knows we can't afford the misogyny on him even if he's certain I'm scum.

If it's scum xorxes, all he needs for scum to win is one town mislynch, and this relationship setup suggests that if/when I flip town, Xorxes was not bussing me and is town, which would put a scum xorxes in the clear.

Nonsense. Once you flip it will be obvious that I'm town.

Well... maybe not obvious. Last game I lynched scum damo and then they decided to lynch me because obviously I had to be bussing. But at least the "let's lynch xorxes because he hasn't solved the game for us yet" stupidity will be over.

[Durga]

we're not lynching good old perce

i agree his weird thing isn't something scum would do, but he does need to stop being confusing. scum isn't that stupid and there isn't some weird hidden mechanism

[xorxes]

Also @durga @balki

What do you make of the weak case xorx made on Percy. I don't see how that can't be busssing

How was it weak for what we had available on D1?

ok xorx. you have like a billion things available now!! solve the goddamn game for me thx

I already did a few minutes ago. See my "map of the players".

[Durga]

actually @xorx currently you're about to be lynched and the people on you are actually pretty townie for the most part so uh, this isn't like last game with teacon and his scum brigade

[xorxes]

Then why did you you ask?
And if there is only one left they aren't all dead are they. And I wouldn't say which pr it was bad to die for me to reveal was I was trying to do to prevent scum from figuring out what I was doing. Ask me WHEN THEY'RE ALL DEAD. I'm not going to give the Mafia any information.

Okay, bullshit.

Percy, you just openly speculated about who is the Innocent Child like two pages ago. What are you talking about?

You mean the throwaway line about Chippe crumbling innocent child?
Please!
1. How do you know that that line of wasn't part of my strategy?
2. Even if the Pr I'm trying to cloud has been claimed, I'm not going to reveal information that could help scum find the real PR if they are choosing to remain anonymous.
3. Why do you think I would explain without all of them being dead or the game being over as I originally said?

This whole discussion is just anti-town (but not the reason I scumread you).

[xorxes]

I think it's true that Xorxes doesn't bus. I was looking at some of his recent games (he's rolled scum a lot lately), and I think that's true. But it's also a useless factoid this game with him on Percy on D1 and with the judge on D2. He is usually on one of the lead wagons.

I am almost always on one of the lead wagons because I'm usually present at EOD when it happens at the usual times (whether I'm town or scum). This game I can't be present at EOD, therefore I can only be on one of the lead wagons by chance. People reading into that is ludicrous.

[Foxcastle]

I think it's true that Xorxes doesn't bus. I was looking at some of his recent games (he's rolled scum a lot lately), and I think that's true. But it's also a useless factoid this game with him on Percy on D1 and with the judge on D2. He is usually on one of the lead wagons.

I am almost always on one of the lead wagons because I'm usually present at EOD when it happens at the usual times (whether I'm town or scum). This game I can't be present at EOD, therefore I can only be on one of the lead wagons by chance. People reading into that is ludicrous.

Yes. I was thinking that when I wrote out my post, but didn't make it explicit.

[Foxcastle]

Besides the timing of EOD, Xorxes, why do you think your play has been so different from previous games?

[xorxes]

actually @xorx currently you're about to be lynched and the people on you are actually pretty townie for the most part so uh, this isn't like last game with teacon and his scum brigade

It's nothing like last game. But Percy has been telling us that I have been behaving towards him as I behaved towards teacon last game. That was the second red flag from him. (The first one was the one about someone being town or BA but not scum, I have to check who that someone was.)

[teacon7]

@et

You asked for a list of what I am thinking so far. Keep in mind that these reads largely miss out on n1-n2 (I still haven't had a chance to read those 80-some pages in the middle of the game), so I'm operating with incomplete information.

BLIND ASSASSIN:
Balki - I'm fairly sure he's the SK. If he's not, the real SK had better kill him. no point in going down the line of thinking where he's lying.

Mechanically TOWN:
teacon7 - You don't know this of course, but as we gain clears this list will increase. I don't think I'm playing a very good game, so I'm actually surprisd more people aren't scumreading me. Looks like I might become a convenient target lynch target here in the near future, so please if you're town glean everything you can from how people talk at/about me.

99% TOWN:
rdrivera - There's very little chance scum would claim the way he did. Pursuing an alternate scenario requires a lot of tinfoil that I don't have time for right now.

very likely TOWN:
Durga - Her reactions and investigations have seemed really towny to me. The reactions and frustratiosn seem natural. her concern when I posted elsewhere read as "concerned town." If she's scum, she's scum with ND and the mafQT looks hilarious, because they've not been fighting about things here in the main thread. I have varying levels of townread on both rn, so that's a non-issue right now.

very slight TOWN:
Chippe - his early "proof" that he's vt looked silly. I don't believe for a minute that we should conclude that he was actually proving he was VT. That said, we can't know anything from what he said, since scum could post the same thing he did. We have town PR who can verify their role, so stunts like his are fundamentally NAI. Let's just leave it at that. His actions since have looked like he's trying to figure out the game, and while I don't agree with him on a lot of stuff.
ND - I don't like his tone, but when he's around he looks like he's trying to find scum. If he's scum, he's scum with durga, since they've NOT been at each other's throats. Either way, they're probably the same alignment.
et - I'm reading his behavior as towny, seeking information and looking to learn from people. He's demonstrating that he reads/understands more than he talks. That may be due to a language barrier, but I'm not so sure how he'd understand the thread but still post so very concisely. I don't want to be rude about it, but there's a disparity between understanding level and post level here, so that's why he's a "slight" townread.
flav - I've never seen him play as scum. My only experience was scumreading a town-flav. I wanted to learn from last game to overlook tone and watch behavior. flav does look like he's looking for scum. I don't always understand the logic he's making, but after a while it makes some sense (i.e., his discussion about how we "know" about who killed whom looks like he doesn't realize that maf have an extra kill in the assassin, or that there was a modkill.) He's lost a little bit of the newbie act from last game, which is about proportional to the # of games he's played. I'd say that between this game and last he looks to be doing a lot less sheeping, and a lot more of his own independent thinking. That's actually AI, hopefully towny AI, and imo is an improvement for him as a player overall regardless of his alignment this game. I do think though that the "balki is a good player" thing from much earlier could have been an early slip - flav isn't the scum secretary, but someone else (xorx?) could be.

A note: I could be wrong on the townreads. I'm letting you know who seems towny to me. I've been wrong about things before, and there's something I'm not seeing. I'm probably pretty deceivable when it comes to reads, as someone who looks solvy therefore looks towny to me. That can't always be the case, as peopel like ND or Durga or squigs are imho capable of looking solvey as scum. We can't know anything for sure until we have mechanically cleared players. That said this is the gamestate I'm imaginging right now.

NULL: (not enough info to tell. tbh I can sympathize because the game is still really big, but that's becoming less and less of an excuse.)
connor - I have no idea. new. overwhelmed by reading. He needs to show up more.
damo - I legitimately forgot he was playing. Is this like town damo or scum damo?
Percy - I don't really remember anything he's done or posted. He's weighed in on points about as much as I've seen before. iirc, he's in a totally different time zone than me, so I'm not surprised we've not seen each other. need to ISO him, which... shouldn't take too long.
peterlund - subbed in for moscow. I scumread moscow's d1 post, but that's not really a lot to go on. He's the "scummiest" of my nulls.

WASH: ("wash" here means "some scum points and some town points that cancel each other" ... it's not a null read because there's amplitude to the reads in both directions, but functionally means "I don't know")
squigs - He was pretty active d1, and then I went on a trip and when I cam back squigs was posting in a radically different way. I don't mean "posting less" so much as "what he's trying to do is different." d1 I actually thought he might be the BA. Now, I'm not so sure, and have to re-think things.

Slight SCUM:
Nephthys - I really didn't like anything I've seen neph say. I scumread him much earlier in the game for largely playing by throwing shade, rather than asking questions and parsing the game. He's since claimed, and I don't know what to make of htat. His claim is dependent on balki's claim, which in turn is dependent on rdr's claim, which.... you see where this is going. I wouldn't lynch him today, but I won't say he's safe until we have confirmation. His reaction to balki and his claim looked like he was really nervious. I'm also not sure what to make of his later post about "you guys have to accept my claim" ... did we doubt you, neph? Are you trying to convince us? Are you scum and were you expecting a CC from the real PR? I'm not sure what to make of it. Why didn't NEPH claim a specific role?

LIKELY SCUM
Foxcastle - He's played by putting major shade on people, but hasn't seemed like he's been trying to solve the game or probe for info or find scum. I've been meaning to ISO him to show what I mean, but I'm trying to catch up reading/skimming first. What has fox actually DONE this game that contributed independent thought?
xorxes - xorx has been uncharictaristically quiet. I don't like that. I'll grant that it's a big game and that he's probably tired from the last one. I didn't like that his early post mentioned me and that he hasn't interacted since. What's the deal? I liked what I've seen of his play n2-d3, though he seems a lot lot lot less solvy and moe like: "I'm going to skate by talking about mechanics and obvious things" rather than "I'm going to try to solve the game." This is far different than last game, even the last game where he got tunnel vision on me after being pretty solvy. The problem with me saying this is that I a) don't want to get into another big fight with xorx again because it wasn't helpful for town last time, and b) saying "xorx should be here more" is an argument from silence. Xorx being gone is only very very slightly AI, because he could be lurking PR or busy IRL or something. Thing is... lurking is more AI in this game than we really want to admit. We don't lynch lurkers as often because we know an argument from silence (arguing on the lack of expected evidence, rather than the presence of evidence) is a much poorer argument IRL than in this game.

If I had to put a scumteam together in order of descending scumminess, I'd say it's likely:

foxcastle, xorx, squigs, and 2-3 of the 4 "nulls" from above. Neph is a special case that I don't know how to handle, but he's on the team when I put together a scumteam in my head, he's on it. .