ND wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2019 4:28 pm
EOD1 Analysis:
//Analysis of 27-33//
Pp. 27:
Vapor: “Espresso feels like purity incarnate (thanks Durga for letting us know he's incredibly smart), everyone can clearly see Espresso's self-control when ND tries to get under his skin, he's calculated, generous and acceptable”
/This is an interesting notation. We will revisit the Espresso-Durga connection soon. Not only are their votes linked through me, but they have played a remarkably close knit day up until and through EOD1 although Durga does attempt something as we will see. This is astute analysis./
Durga: /Paraphrase: She rambles about how EP is so great or whatever/
Fox: I’m leading the Vote (4) to Fox (3)
Vashta: /Paraphrase: Basically how he isn’t moving his vote and only giving thoughts on, “If he gives more thoughts on the people who aren’t voting him then maybe I could change my read on him, but atm I see no reason to swap off.”
/Characteristically false. I spent most of the back half of Day 1 giving thoughts on others including a post in which I did a reads list. Either he isn’t reading, he isn’t paying attention, or he is going for the easy target.
Durga: “We should honestly just lynch xorxes he’s totally scum.”
/Seems odd now doesn’t it? Since Xorxes was fairly instrumental in pushing Damo. It came to a head when I forced it being me or Damo which we will get too./
Teacon: /Pp. 27: Paraphrase: I don’t see Teacon as scum here. He is driving discussion in a way./
Pp. 28:
Xorxes: /Paraphrase: Spends some time talking about Damo start of 28. I see his reasoning here especially given Damo’s ‘we think alike’ comment. Should be noted that this is not full out smoking gun, at least not to the room, but sometimes leads can be personal in nature and they can be personal smoking guns if you note something no one else is seeing. Especially given the quoted text it does appear and is perhaps quite likely that Damo drew inspiration from past scum player’s and their games as Xorxes states here: “He copies people’s reads from past games as town?”/
Durga: /Paraphrase: Wants to push the deadline back/
Misc: /Summary: Other comments to Xorxes, some discussion on Vashta from Teacon that spills over from 27. Some commentary on Vapor from Moscow. Any of this could be floating the possibility of another wagon but no one outright does anything./
ND: I tie it and state that Damo is a good second choice for me.
Durga: /In reply to Xorxes: “I don’t get it. Both statements can be made as either alignment. It’s just true about bozo.”
/Thoughts: Could be an honest critique of Xorxes or a defense of Damo. We’ll get into this more in a minute./
Pp. 29:
Durga: “I don’t think I have a good read on Damo”
/Thoughts: Okay. Important point. She would never move her vote off me if she was town. She relishes murdering me. She mentions this again towards the end and since day was moving slow she had time to re-read Damo. She doesn’t. She also floats Percy as a possible third wagon (below) analysis on that below. I don't think she does this if she is town./
Misc: /MF counters Xorxes point but still supports Damo lynch. Teacon questions Bozo about Xorxes’ post. Xorxes doubles down on his point. Vapor - Moscow spill over discussion from 28. Teacon questions Xorxes about his post. All of this is generic questioning. Nothing really stands out to me./
Misc: /Some discussion from Moscow back to Vapor. Durga doesn’t know when deadline is because she probably doesn’t read game start post./
Vashta: /Asked about his vote on me: “Yes because he’s mostly posting in a way that is not constructive and is only scum reading people who are voting him.”
/Thoughts: There was clearly something off with Damo. And, ignoring that and instead peddling the whole thing about play style = bad vs. actual bad actor (Damo) is ignoring a preponderance of evidence in exchange for a seemingly easy lynch (someone who acted strange -me-. We’ll get more into that in a minute. But, we see correlation between the reason for this vote and also Espresso. Both voted for me because weird = bad and not bad actor (Damo) equals well bad actor. This is core scum tactic folks.
Teacon: /Paraphrase: Floats Percy as a possible lynch but doesn’t move vote and says he will vote Damo if it is me or him./
Bozo: /Paraphrase: Disputes Xorxes but sticks to the Damo push/
Pp. 30
RD: /Paraphrase: Against Percy lynch/
Teacon-ND: We both comment how it is quiet for EOD
Durga: “Anyone wanna switch to Percy with me?”
/Thoughts: This is an interesting point because up until this point and we can see on previous pages that there was some potential for a Percy third wagon. However, this was shot down by RD. This was not floated directly as a possibility by anyone in these strict terms like Durga suggested although there was tacit support for it. Durga openly suggesting moving her vote from me to Percy is a potential opening for others to move their votes and for her to follow them. Which allows her not to take the lead vote, but also move her vote if enough do it. This is usually done late in EOD by mafia to try to move people off a fellow mafia member about to be lynched./
Teacon: “emc I think you’d better vote”
/Thoughts: Teacon directly mentioned Percy as a possible vote earlier on Pp. 29. If he had knowledge of Damo’s role he could have used this ploy by Durga to move his vote if he was scum. This would have likely started some kind of cascade with Durga following and potentially others. It would surely have saved Damo and broken the tie. However, he doesn’t do it. He asks EMC to vote. This was his out if he was scum. This is what makes him not scum./
Misc: /Others ask EMC to vote. RD shoots down Percy again./
Pp. 31
Misc: /Thoughts: With EMC not immediately voting it falls to Teacon who moves his vote to Damo. he also notes how Durga has tried to start other wagons. A worthy point and something I have spent time discussing here./
Durga: /Paraphrase: She responds. Full of snideness. She wants me to get lynched. For whatever muh reason she can dream up. She calls Teacon scum for questioning her. Repeats that Damo is a null. She had several hours to look back over Damo in the bot yet he is still a null for her. With her attempt to start a Percy wagon a failure (like her) she now has to await the outcome of her teammate getting lynched. She says she isn’t moving alone which again supports above analysis about not wanting to be the first to jump ship and wanting a cascade wagon effect to take place which saves Damo and dooms Percy. By this logic and if Durga does flip scum it is pretty much safe to say that Percy was the back up lynch choice but probably only because Durga was smart enough to realize that there was some tacit town support for a Percy lynch D1 but not enough to support to outweigh Damo. If someone else was being floated around she would have chosen them. It didn’t matter who it was as long as it wasn’t her, Damo or whoever the other one is. Probably Espresso or deep threat/
EMC: /Paraphrase: Finally votes Damo, but at this point Teacon has already pushed it over Damo is now leading. EMC wasn’t brave enough to break the tie, but jumped on once Damo was inevitable. There is a difference there, he basically pads the wagon and guarantees it’s success. Voting for me at this point would have only tied it again. I don’t think EMC/Einstein is scum though.
Pp. 32
Misc: Rd not going to change. EMC justifies himself. Moscow votes Damo and guarantees the lynch. Phase ends.
Damo is the Godfather
Some big takeaways:
Durga does try to start a third wagon after reading the room and seeing if she could get anyone to start a wagon first (she wasn’t going to weaken my wagon someone else had to start the cascade for her to leave it which saves Damo) which could overtake Damo and either make it Me Vs Percy or just Percy. It fails and she asks Teacon if he is scum when he doesn’t go along with it.
Clearly Durga’s push was targeted at least towards Teacon and Teacon was her mark in all this. This makes Teacon very less likely to be scum. It makes Percy less likely to be scum. Durga is scum. She needs to be exited next.
EMC comes out as well, not the bravest man in the world, but the guy who guarantees Damo’s death. After him we see the cascade and town come together to lynch Damo. His vote after Teacon gives it a +1 over me all but guarantee it. MF seals the deal.
Espresso is absent, but it’s important to remember how we began this. Vapor’s post mentioning the connection between Espresso and Durga. This is a real thing and we have even seen it in the night phase with Durga trying to explain Espressos delayed reaction to the flip. Xorxes shot her defense down though. There is a connection here and yeah maybe they know each other in IRL and all that, but in-game there is some symmetry going on as well. Bares watching.
Vashta doesn’t waver. He made a few posts D1. Spotted me as a target and stuck to the vote. Maybe he didn’t have the time for it or fully had time to read the game. Maybe he just thought I would be an easy oh shucks I picked the wrong guy type of lynch. Or maybe he was looking for an easy marking. He gets a slight scum lean.
Xorxes is basically the hero of EOD1. He pushes Damo. He finds something he believes to be of an important nature and argues that Damo is reusing old read lists. It’s not impossible. I fully believe this is town Xorxes. Yes some night discussion about how genuine this is, but from my own experience sometimes you do see something that only you recognize as a major scumtell I think that’s what happened here.
Notation on my own play and how this happened:
By making myself the center of attention and debate I have given everyone a great gift. I wanted to deliberately give people a reason to vote for me. Whether that reason was for being insulting, getting under skin, or for just being strange and out there. It didn’t really matter. I wanted to see who would fall for the bait. I wanted to see who would not take the bait. That’s important. The people who voted for me (as Vashta keeps saying I am bad for voting and suspecting them) well that’s kind of the point of what I did. I wanted to see who would be lazy enough to vote for me just based on me playing strange or being insulting to them. People who play this game and cast a vote to eliminate a player because they are a little spammy or a little strange or just rude aren’t really playing the game. They are looking for a way to coast through it. They aren’t deducing things. They aren’t thinking. And, they certainly are not playing with a pro-town mindset. They are looking for an easy kill.
The Mafia team want an easy kill. The town want to deduce the motivations of players and discover who the mafia are so they can be lynched and the town can win. By setting myself up as a target to draw the attention of every player, their ire, their votes, suspicions, whatever, I gave the town a gift. If I had died then D2 you could have seen who simply coasted D1 with a vote on me and why they did so. Was it because they really thought I was scum or did they vote for me because Durga said so (aka Damo) or because my play style was strange (Espresso), or because (i suspect people who vote for me aka Vashta) or simply because they don’t like me as a person (Durga). Whatever the reason, it would have given you all valuable information on these player’s motivations which you could have used to win or at least get close to winning.
There are still problems with my plan. It’s totally possible that someone I think to be town is playing me and is scum. They just played it differently than their cohort (Damo) we know damo played D1 lazy and got called out and lynched. My plan succeeded in doing enough to get Damo lynched with the help of Xorxes and everyone else who voted him. It doesn’t mean we won. It just means we are a third of the way there.
I think I caught Durga in this ploy, but I have a clear bias. We don’t get along. It needs to be stated. Those of you who read this can give your thoughts, but I do deeply think that based on EOD Durga is scum. She wanted to save Damo. She wanted to get someone other than Damo lynched. I could honestly see Vashta or Espresso as the third, but if I’m wrong it’s a deep threat. Which makes this tough. Still, I’m glad I did what I could to get us this far. I may not be appreciated much or respected as a good player, but I did what I could guys.