M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

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xorxes
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Re: M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

#761 Post by xorxes » Sat May 18, 2019 3:54 pm

bozotheclown wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 3:40 pm
So why would xorxes suddenly start bussing damo, the GF, and help get him lynched? Maybe he felt damo was being suspicious enough that damo would get lynched soon anyway. Maybe Percy Williams is scum also, and with both of his teammates already getting pressure, he thought he had to make a bold move for scum to have a chance. Maybe he didn't, but we should not assume xorxes is town for "catching" damo.
All good points. It would be the first time I bus my teammates so brazenly, but I will have to try it some time as scum.

Only problem is, what happens after I get lots of towncred and survive N1 and N2? I can only try that strategy in a game with complicated mechanics that could explain my survival because scum are busy with other things, fearful of saves, and so on, but in this vanilla setup early credibility for me at the expense of a teammate is of no use, because it vanishes as soon as I survive the nightkills.

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Re: M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

#762 Post by ND » Sat May 18, 2019 4:02 pm

I highly doubt Xorxes is scum bro.

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Re: M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

#763 Post by xorxes » Sat May 18, 2019 4:03 pm

teacon7 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 3:02 am
EspressoPatronum wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 2:45 am
Feigning thoughtfulness and/or indecision is a classic mafia move in irl games, and I'm sure it's the same on forum.
It is here too, but it's hard to distinguish from thoughtful town. I basically won't explain more of this in case you rolled scum and are fishing for advice.
Why were you happily giving advice to damo on how to improve his game, but here you are remiss in explaining something to Espresso. Also, scum "fishing for advice"? First time I hear of something like that.

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Re: M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

#764 Post by xorxes » Sat May 18, 2019 4:08 pm

teacon7 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 2:00 pm
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 12:49 pm
Agree too, Durga is usually a lot more confrontational as town. Of course she could change meta, but I doubt it's the case. Anyway, I don't like her push on ND too, because it's lazy, it's like pushing Brain on D1.
Easy lynches are scum lightning rods. But imo durga would know we'd think that, so... hm.

I will say this: this is possibly the most active I've seen durga in a game before.
Townie points for Durga if teacon is scum.

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Re: M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

#765 Post by ND » Sat May 18, 2019 4:18 pm

I am about to drop huge analysis all over this thread.

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Re: M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

#766 Post by EspressoPatronum » Sat May 18, 2019 4:20 pm

xorxes wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 3:46 pm
ND wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 3:28 pm
xorxes wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 3:23 pm


teacon seems to have studied last game very carefully. I said last game I never saw scum coach other scum openly in the thread. teacon here (and I think elsewhere) coaches damo openly in the thread.
You really think Teacon was coaching Damo? I saw Teacon more as a discussion driver but you think he was openly coaching him?
Possibly, yes.
I also saw him as more of a discussion driver. He was asking a lot of questions to different people and responding with positive messages.

What do you guys think about Damo not mentioning Teacon in his reads on p20? Teacon highlights it at p22 with, "aww, you left me out.
Also: thanks for being more verbose. keep it coming."

I'm pretty sure Damo mentioned everyone else in his post. It could have been an accident, but maybe he was trying to help separate himself from teacon.

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Re: M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

#767 Post by xorxes » Sat May 18, 2019 4:20 pm

teacon7 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 3:12 pm
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 2:43 pm
e.m.c^42 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 2:38 pm


Oh, so far the hedging has already been turned down a lot
this is attempting 'not hedging' for me XD

For voting, dunno. I will decide later. But not probably Vapor or ND.
Just for the record, this is true. I was triggered on his first game for the absurd amount of hedging emc did, but later realized it was just his style.

It still annoy me the lack of votes as it make hard to analyze later.
well shoot. my scumlean has similar reads as I do. now what?
Second time teacon indirectly commits to not vote for ND, when it didn't seem it would matter much.

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Re: M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

#768 Post by xorxes » Sat May 18, 2019 4:22 pm

EspressoPatronum wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 4:20 pm
xorxes wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 3:46 pm
ND wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 3:28 pm


You really think Teacon was coaching Damo? I saw Teacon more as a discussion driver but you think he was openly coaching him?
Possibly, yes.
I also saw him as more of a discussion driver. He was asking a lot of questions to different people and responding with positive messages.

What do you guys think about Damo not mentioning Teacon in his reads on p20? Teacon highlights it at p22 with, "aww, you left me out.
Also: thanks for being more verbose. keep it coming."

I'm pretty sure Damo mentioned everyone else in his post. It could have been an accident, but maybe he was trying to help separate himself from teacon.
He didn't mention Vapor either.

I already asked Vapor and teacon to comment about that.

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Re: M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

#769 Post by ND » Sat May 18, 2019 4:28 pm

EOD1 Analysis:

//Analysis of 27-33//

Pp. 27:

Vapor: “Espresso feels like purity incarnate (thanks Durga for letting us know he's incredibly smart), everyone can clearly see Espresso's self-control when ND tries to get under his skin, he's calculated, generous and acceptable”

/This is an interesting notation. We will revisit the Espresso-Durga connection soon. Not only are their votes linked through me, but they have played a remarkably close knit day up until and through EOD1 although Durga does attempt something as we will see. This is astute analysis./

Durga: /Paraphrase: She rambles about how EP is so great or whatever/

Fox: I’m leading the Vote (4) to Fox (3)

Vashta: /Paraphrase: Basically how he isn’t moving his vote and only giving thoughts on, “If he gives more thoughts on the people who aren’t voting him then maybe I could change my read on him, but atm I see no reason to swap off.”

/Characteristically false. I spent most of the back half of Day 1 giving thoughts on others including a post in which I did a reads list. Either he isn’t reading, he isn’t paying attention, or he is going for the easy target.

Durga: “We should honestly just lynch xorxes he’s totally scum.”

/Seems odd now doesn’t it? Since Xorxes was fairly instrumental in pushing Damo. It came to a head when I forced it being me or Damo which we will get too./

Teacon: /Pp. 27: Paraphrase: I don’t see Teacon as scum here. He is driving discussion in a way./

Pp. 28:

Xorxes: /Paraphrase: Spends some time talking about Damo start of 28. I see his reasoning here especially given Damo’s ‘we think alike’ comment. Should be noted that this is not full out smoking gun, at least not to the room, but sometimes leads can be personal in nature and they can be personal smoking guns if you note something no one else is seeing. Especially given the quoted text it does appear and is perhaps quite likely that Damo drew inspiration from past scum player’s and their games as Xorxes states here: “He copies people’s reads from past games as town?”/

Durga: /Paraphrase: Wants to push the deadline back/

Misc: /Summary: Other comments to Xorxes, some discussion on Vashta from Teacon that spills over from 27. Some commentary on Vapor from Moscow. Any of this could be floating the possibility of another wagon but no one outright does anything./

ND: I tie it and state that Damo is a good second choice for me.

Durga: /In reply to Xorxes: “I don’t get it. Both statements can be made as either alignment. It’s just true about bozo.”

/Thoughts: Could be an honest critique of Xorxes or a defense of Damo. We’ll get into this more in a minute./

Pp. 29:

Durga: “I don’t think I have a good read on Damo”

/Thoughts: Okay. Important point. She would never move her vote off me if she was town. She relishes murdering me. She mentions this again towards the end and since day was moving slow she had time to re-read Damo. She doesn’t. She also floats Percy as a possible third wagon (below) analysis on that below. I don't think she does this if she is town./

Misc: /MF counters Xorxes point but still supports Damo lynch. Teacon questions Bozo about Xorxes’ post. Xorxes doubles down on his point. Vapor - Moscow spill over discussion from 28. Teacon questions Xorxes about his post. All of this is generic questioning. Nothing really stands out to me./

Misc: /Some discussion from Moscow back to Vapor. Durga doesn’t know when deadline is because she probably doesn’t read game start post./

Vashta: /Asked about his vote on me: “Yes because he’s mostly posting in a way that is not constructive and is only scum reading people who are voting him.”

/Thoughts: There was clearly something off with Damo. And, ignoring that and instead peddling the whole thing about play style = bad vs. actual bad actor (Damo) is ignoring a preponderance of evidence in exchange for a seemingly easy lynch (someone who acted strange -me-. We’ll get more into that in a minute. But, we see correlation between the reason for this vote and also Espresso. Both voted for me because weird = bad and not bad actor (Damo) equals well bad actor. This is core scum tactic folks.

Teacon: /Paraphrase: Floats Percy as a possible lynch but doesn’t move vote and says he will vote Damo if it is me or him./

Bozo: /Paraphrase: Disputes Xorxes but sticks to the Damo push/

Pp. 30
RD: /Paraphrase: Against Percy lynch/

Teacon-ND: We both comment how it is quiet for EOD

Durga: “Anyone wanna switch to Percy with me?”

/Thoughts: This is an interesting point because up until this point and we can see on previous pages that there was some potential for a Percy third wagon. However, this was shot down by RD. This was not floated directly as a possibility by anyone in these strict terms like Durga suggested although there was tacit support for it. Durga openly suggesting moving her vote from me to Percy is a potential opening for others to move their votes and for her to follow them. Which allows her not to take the lead vote, but also move her vote if enough do it. This is usually done late in EOD by mafia to try to move people off a fellow mafia member about to be lynched./

Teacon: “emc I think you’d better vote”

/Thoughts: Teacon directly mentioned Percy as a possible vote earlier on Pp. 29. If he had knowledge of Damo’s role he could have used this ploy by Durga to move his vote if he was scum. This would have likely started some kind of cascade with Durga following and potentially others. It would surely have saved Damo and broken the tie. However, he doesn’t do it. He asks EMC to vote. This was his out if he was scum. This is what makes him not scum./

Misc: /Others ask EMC to vote. RD shoots down Percy again./

Pp. 31

Misc: /Thoughts: With EMC not immediately voting it falls to Teacon who moves his vote to Damo. he also notes how Durga has tried to start other wagons. A worthy point and something I have spent time discussing here./

Durga: /Paraphrase: She responds. Full of snideness. She wants me to get lynched. For whatever muh reason she can dream up. She calls Teacon scum for questioning her. Repeats that Damo is a null. She had several hours to look back over Damo in the bot yet he is still a null for her. With her attempt to start a Percy wagon a failure (like her) she now has to await the outcome of her teammate getting lynched. She says she isn’t moving alone which again supports above analysis about not wanting to be the first to jump ship and wanting a cascade wagon effect to take place which saves Damo and dooms Percy. By this logic and if Durga does flip scum it is pretty much safe to say that Percy was the back up lynch choice but probably only because Durga was smart enough to realize that there was some tacit town support for a Percy lynch D1 but not enough to support to outweigh Damo. If someone else was being floated around she would have chosen them. It didn’t matter who it was as long as it wasn’t her, Damo or whoever the other one is. Probably Espresso or deep threat/

EMC: /Paraphrase: Finally votes Damo, but at this point Teacon has already pushed it over Damo is now leading. EMC wasn’t brave enough to break the tie, but jumped on once Damo was inevitable. There is a difference there, he basically pads the wagon and guarantees it’s success. Voting for me at this point would have only tied it again. I don’t think EMC/Einstein is scum though.

Pp. 32
Misc: Rd not going to change. EMC justifies himself. Moscow votes Damo and guarantees the lynch. Phase ends.

Damo is the Godfather

Some big takeaways:

Durga does try to start a third wagon after reading the room and seeing if she could get anyone to start a wagon first (she wasn’t going to weaken my wagon someone else had to start the cascade for her to leave it which saves Damo) which could overtake Damo and either make it Me Vs Percy or just Percy. It fails and she asks Teacon if he is scum when he doesn’t go along with it.
Clearly Durga’s push was targeted at least towards Teacon and Teacon was her mark in all this. This makes Teacon very less likely to be scum. It makes Percy less likely to be scum. Durga is scum. She needs to be exited next.

EMC comes out as well, not the bravest man in the world, but the guy who guarantees Damo’s death. After him we see the cascade and town come together to lynch Damo. His vote after Teacon gives it a +1 over me all but guarantee it. MF seals the deal.

Espresso is absent, but it’s important to remember how we began this. Vapor’s post mentioning the connection between Espresso and Durga. This is a real thing and we have even seen it in the night phase with Durga trying to explain Espressos delayed reaction to the flip. Xorxes shot her defense down though. There is a connection here and yeah maybe they know each other in IRL and all that, but in-game there is some symmetry going on as well. Bares watching.

Vashta doesn’t waver. He made a few posts D1. Spotted me as a target and stuck to the vote. Maybe he didn’t have the time for it or fully had time to read the game. Maybe he just thought I would be an easy oh shucks I picked the wrong guy type of lynch. Or maybe he was looking for an easy marking. He gets a slight scum lean.

Xorxes is basically the hero of EOD1. He pushes Damo. He finds something he believes to be of an important nature and argues that Damo is reusing old read lists. It’s not impossible. I fully believe this is town Xorxes. Yes some night discussion about how genuine this is, but from my own experience sometimes you do see something that only you recognize as a major scumtell I think that’s what happened here.

Notation on my own play and how this happened:

By making myself the center of attention and debate I have given everyone a great gift. I wanted to deliberately give people a reason to vote for me. Whether that reason was for being insulting, getting under skin, or for just being strange and out there. It didn’t really matter. I wanted to see who would fall for the bait. I wanted to see who would not take the bait. That’s important. The people who voted for me (as Vashta keeps saying I am bad for voting and suspecting them) well that’s kind of the point of what I did. I wanted to see who would be lazy enough to vote for me just based on me playing strange or being insulting to them. People who play this game and cast a vote to eliminate a player because they are a little spammy or a little strange or just rude aren’t really playing the game. They are looking for a way to coast through it. They aren’t deducing things. They aren’t thinking. And, they certainly are not playing with a pro-town mindset. They are looking for an easy kill.

The Mafia team want an easy kill. The town want to deduce the motivations of players and discover who the mafia are so they can be lynched and the town can win. By setting myself up as a target to draw the attention of every player, their ire, their votes, suspicions, whatever, I gave the town a gift. If I had died then D2 you could have seen who simply coasted D1 with a vote on me and why they did so. Was it because they really thought I was scum or did they vote for me because Durga said so (aka Damo) or because my play style was strange (Espresso), or because (i suspect people who vote for me aka Vashta) or simply because they don’t like me as a person (Durga). Whatever the reason, it would have given you all valuable information on these player’s motivations which you could have used to win or at least get close to winning.

There are still problems with my plan. It’s totally possible that someone I think to be town is playing me and is scum. They just played it differently than their cohort (Damo) we know damo played D1 lazy and got called out and lynched. My plan succeeded in doing enough to get Damo lynched with the help of Xorxes and everyone else who voted him. It doesn’t mean we won. It just means we are a third of the way there.

I think I caught Durga in this ploy, but I have a clear bias. We don’t get along. It needs to be stated. Those of you who read this can give your thoughts, but I do deeply think that based on EOD Durga is scum. She wanted to save Damo. She wanted to get someone other than Damo lynched. I could honestly see Vashta or Espresso as the third, but if I’m wrong it’s a deep threat. Which makes this tough. Still, I’m glad I did what I could to get us this far. I may not be appreciated much or respected as a good player, but I did what I could guys.

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Re: M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

#770 Post by EspressoPatronum » Sat May 18, 2019 4:29 pm

xorxes wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 4:22 pm
EspressoPatronum wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 4:20 pm
xorxes wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 3:46 pm


Possibly, yes.
I also saw him as more of a discussion driver. He was asking a lot of questions to different people and responding with positive messages.

What do you guys think about Damo not mentioning Teacon in his reads on p20? Teacon highlights it at p22 with, "aww, you left me out.
Also: thanks for being more verbose. keep it coming."

I'm pretty sure Damo mentioned everyone else in his post. It could have been an accident, but maybe he was trying to help separate himself from teacon.
He didn't mention Vapor either.

I already asked Vapor and teacon to comment about that.
Ah kk, I missed that on p36. What are your thoughts on Vapor's reply on p38? Promising things will make more sense on D3 seems a bit sketchy to me. He also mentioned something on p12 and 13 about having a plan and revealing it later.

Still waiting on teacon's response

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Re: M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

#771 Post by bozotheclown » Sat May 18, 2019 4:30 pm

xorxes wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 4:22 pm
EspressoPatronum wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 4:20 pm
xorxes wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 3:46 pm


Possibly, yes.
I also saw him as more of a discussion driver. He was asking a lot of questions to different people and responding with positive messages.

What do you guys think about Damo not mentioning Teacon in his reads on p20? Teacon highlights it at p22 with, "aww, you left me out.
Also: thanks for being more verbose. keep it coming."

I'm pretty sure Damo mentioned everyone else in his post. It could have been an accident, but maybe he was trying to help separate himself from teacon.
He didn't mention Vapor either.

I already asked Vapor and teacon to comment about that.
It probably means Vapor and teacon are town, I doubt damo would forget to include his teammates.

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Re: M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

#772 Post by EspressoPatronum » Sat May 18, 2019 4:38 pm

ND wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 4:28 pm
EOD1 Analysis:

//Analysis of 27-33//

Pp. 27:

Vapor: “Espresso feels like purity incarnate (thanks Durga for letting us know he's incredibly smart), everyone can clearly see Espresso's self-control when ND tries to get under his skin, he's calculated, generous and acceptable”

/This is an interesting notation. We will revisit the Espresso-Durga connection soon. Not only are their votes linked through me, but they have played a remarkably close knit day up until and through EOD1 although Durga does attempt something as we will see. This is astute analysis./

Durga: /Paraphrase: She rambles about how EP is so great or whatever/

Fox: I’m leading the Vote (4) to Fox (3)

Vashta: /Paraphrase: Basically how he isn’t moving his vote and only giving thoughts on, “If he gives more thoughts on the people who aren’t voting him then maybe I could change my read on him, but atm I see no reason to swap off.”

/Characteristically false. I spent most of the back half of Day 1 giving thoughts on others including a post in which I did a reads list. Either he isn’t reading, he isn’t paying attention, or he is going for the easy target.

Durga: “We should honestly just lynch xorxes he’s totally scum.”

/Seems odd now doesn’t it? Since Xorxes was fairly instrumental in pushing Damo. It came to a head when I forced it being me or Damo which we will get too./

Teacon: /Pp. 27: Paraphrase: I don’t see Teacon as scum here. He is driving discussion in a way./

Pp. 28:

Xorxes: /Paraphrase: Spends some time talking about Damo start of 28. I see his reasoning here especially given Damo’s ‘we think alike’ comment. Should be noted that this is not full out smoking gun, at least not to the room, but sometimes leads can be personal in nature and they can be personal smoking guns if you note something no one else is seeing. Especially given the quoted text it does appear and is perhaps quite likely that Damo drew inspiration from past scum player’s and their games as Xorxes states here: “He copies people’s reads from past games as town?”/

Durga: /Paraphrase: Wants to push the deadline back/

Misc: /Summary: Other comments to Xorxes, some discussion on Vashta from Teacon that spills over from 27. Some commentary on Vapor from Moscow. Any of this could be floating the possibility of another wagon but no one outright does anything./

ND: I tie it and state that Damo is a good second choice for me.

Durga: /In reply to Xorxes: “I don’t get it. Both statements can be made as either alignment. It’s just true about bozo.”

/Thoughts: Could be an honest critique of Xorxes or a defense of Damo. We’ll get into this more in a minute./

Pp. 29:

Durga: “I don’t think I have a good read on Damo”

/Thoughts: Okay. Important point. She would never move her vote off me if she was town. She relishes murdering me. She mentions this again towards the end and since day was moving slow she had time to re-read Damo. She doesn’t. She also floats Percy as a possible third wagon (below) analysis on that below. I don't think she does this if she is town./

Misc: /MF counters Xorxes point but still supports Damo lynch. Teacon questions Bozo about Xorxes’ post. Xorxes doubles down on his point. Vapor - Moscow spill over discussion from 28. Teacon questions Xorxes about his post. All of this is generic questioning. Nothing really stands out to me./

Misc: /Some discussion from Moscow back to Vapor. Durga doesn’t know when deadline is because she probably doesn’t read game start post./

Vashta: /Asked about his vote on me: “Yes because he’s mostly posting in a way that is not constructive and is only scum reading people who are voting him.”

/Thoughts: There was clearly something off with Damo. And, ignoring that and instead peddling the whole thing about play style = bad vs. actual bad actor (Damo) is ignoring a preponderance of evidence in exchange for a seemingly easy lynch (someone who acted strange -me-. We’ll get more into that in a minute. But, we see correlation between the reason for this vote and also Espresso. Both voted for me because weird = bad and not bad actor (Damo) equals well bad actor. This is core scum tactic folks.

Teacon: /Paraphrase: Floats Percy as a possible lynch but doesn’t move vote and says he will vote Damo if it is me or him./

Bozo: /Paraphrase: Disputes Xorxes but sticks to the Damo push/

Pp. 30
RD: /Paraphrase: Against Percy lynch/

Teacon-ND: We both comment how it is quiet for EOD

Durga: “Anyone wanna switch to Percy with me?”

/Thoughts: This is an interesting point because up until this point and we can see on previous pages that there was some potential for a Percy third wagon. However, this was shot down by RD. This was not floated directly as a possibility by anyone in these strict terms like Durga suggested although there was tacit support for it. Durga openly suggesting moving her vote from me to Percy is a potential opening for others to move their votes and for her to follow them. Which allows her not to take the lead vote, but also move her vote if enough do it. This is usually done late in EOD by mafia to try to move people off a fellow mafia member about to be lynched./

Teacon: “emc I think you’d better vote”

/Thoughts: Teacon directly mentioned Percy as a possible vote earlier on Pp. 29. If he had knowledge of Damo’s role he could have used this ploy by Durga to move his vote if he was scum. This would have likely started some kind of cascade with Durga following and potentially others. It would surely have saved Damo and broken the tie. However, he doesn’t do it. He asks EMC to vote. This was his out if he was scum. This is what makes him not scum./

Misc: /Others ask EMC to vote. RD shoots down Percy again./

Pp. 31

Misc: /Thoughts: With EMC not immediately voting it falls to Teacon who moves his vote to Damo. he also notes how Durga has tried to start other wagons. A worthy point and something I have spent time discussing here./

Durga: /Paraphrase: She responds. Full of snideness. She wants me to get lynched. For whatever muh reason she can dream up. She calls Teacon scum for questioning her. Repeats that Damo is a null. She had several hours to look back over Damo in the bot yet he is still a null for her. With her attempt to start a Percy wagon a failure (like her) she now has to await the outcome of her teammate getting lynched. She says she isn’t moving alone which again supports above analysis about not wanting to be the first to jump ship and wanting a cascade wagon effect to take place which saves Damo and dooms Percy. By this logic and if Durga does flip scum it is pretty much safe to say that Percy was the back up lynch choice but probably only because Durga was smart enough to realize that there was some tacit town support for a Percy lynch D1 but not enough to support to outweigh Damo. If someone else was being floated around she would have chosen them. It didn’t matter who it was as long as it wasn’t her, Damo or whoever the other one is. Probably Espresso or deep threat/

EMC: /Paraphrase: Finally votes Damo, but at this point Teacon has already pushed it over Damo is now leading. EMC wasn’t brave enough to break the tie, but jumped on once Damo was inevitable. There is a difference there, he basically pads the wagon and guarantees it’s success. Voting for me at this point would have only tied it again. I don’t think EMC/Einstein is scum though.

Pp. 32
Misc: Rd not going to change. EMC justifies himself. Moscow votes Damo and guarantees the lynch. Phase ends.

Damo is the Godfather

Some big takeaways:

Durga does try to start a third wagon after reading the room and seeing if she could get anyone to start a wagon first (she wasn’t going to weaken my wagon someone else had to start the cascade for her to leave it which saves Damo) which could overtake Damo and either make it Me Vs Percy or just Percy. It fails and she asks Teacon if he is scum when he doesn’t go along with it.
Clearly Durga’s push was targeted at least towards Teacon and Teacon was her mark in all this. This makes Teacon very less likely to be scum. It makes Percy less likely to be scum. Durga is scum. She needs to be exited next.

EMC comes out as well, not the bravest man in the world, but the guy who guarantees Damo’s death. After him we see the cascade and town come together to lynch Damo. His vote after Teacon gives it a +1 over me all but guarantee it. MF seals the deal.

Espresso is absent, but it’s important to remember how we began this. Vapor’s post mentioning the connection between Espresso and Durga. This is a real thing and we have even seen it in the night phase with Durga trying to explain Espressos delayed reaction to the flip. Xorxes shot her defense down though. There is a connection here and yeah maybe they know each other in IRL and all that, but in-game there is some symmetry going on as well. Bares watching.

Vashta doesn’t waver. He made a few posts D1. Spotted me as a target and stuck to the vote. Maybe he didn’t have the time for it or fully had time to read the game. Maybe he just thought I would be an easy oh shucks I picked the wrong guy type of lynch. Or maybe he was looking for an easy marking. He gets a slight scum lean.

Xorxes is basically the hero of EOD1. He pushes Damo. He finds something he believes to be of an important nature and argues that Damo is reusing old read lists. It’s not impossible. I fully believe this is town Xorxes. Yes some night discussion about how genuine this is, but from my own experience sometimes you do see something that only you recognize as a major scumtell I think that’s what happened here.

Notation on my own play and how this happened:

By making myself the center of attention and debate I have given everyone a great gift. I wanted to deliberately give people a reason to vote for me. Whether that reason was for being insulting, getting under skin, or for just being strange and out there. It didn’t really matter. I wanted to see who would fall for the bait. I wanted to see who would not take the bait. That’s important. The people who voted for me (as Vashta keeps saying I am bad for voting and suspecting them) well that’s kind of the point of what I did. I wanted to see who would be lazy enough to vote for me just based on me playing strange or being insulting to them. People who play this game and cast a vote to eliminate a player because they are a little spammy or a little strange or just rude aren’t really playing the game. They are looking for a way to coast through it. They aren’t deducing things. They aren’t thinking. And, they certainly are not playing with a pro-town mindset. They are looking for an easy kill.

The Mafia team want an easy kill. The town want to deduce the motivations of players and discover who the mafia are so they can be lynched and the town can win. By setting myself up as a target to draw the attention of every player, their ire, their votes, suspicions, whatever, I gave the town a gift. If I had died then D2 you could have seen who simply coasted D1 with a vote on me and why they did so. Was it because they really thought I was scum or did they vote for me because Durga said so (aka Damo) or because my play style was strange (Espresso), or because (i suspect people who vote for me aka Vashta) or simply because they don’t like me as a person (Durga). Whatever the reason, it would have given you all valuable information on these player’s motivations which you could have used to win or at least get close to winning.

There are still problems with my plan. It’s totally possible that someone I think to be town is playing me and is scum. They just played it differently than their cohort (Damo) we know damo played D1 lazy and got called out and lynched. My plan succeeded in doing enough to get Damo lynched with the help of Xorxes and everyone else who voted him. It doesn’t mean we won. It just means we are a third of the way there.

I think I caught Durga in this ploy, but I have a clear bias. We don’t get along. It needs to be stated. Those of you who read this can give your thoughts, but I do deeply think that based on EOD Durga is scum. She wanted to save Damo. She wanted to get someone other than Damo lynched. I could honestly see Vashta or Espresso as the third, but if I’m wrong it’s a deep threat. Which makes this tough. Still, I’m glad I did what I could to get us this far. I may not be appreciated much or respected as a good player, but I did what I could guys.
I really appreciate the long post and the effort put into the analysis. I gave it a quick skim now but will read it more carefully later and respond in kind.

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Re: M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

#773 Post by Durga » Sat May 18, 2019 4:43 pm

Jfc ND why didn't you just do some type of analysis like that on D1. You're wrong, but good effort.

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Re: M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

#774 Post by xorxes » Sat May 18, 2019 4:43 pm

teacon7 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 8:50 pm
teacon7 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 8:46 pm
xorxes wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 8:44 pm
teacon, what was your take on damo? You probably said it already but I haven't been able to read everything yet.
he's hedgy, which is a second to third tier lynch offense for D1. read my post on pg27. for the rationale.
by second-to-third-tier... I mean... we're all kinda unsure on D1, because we don't know anything yet.

i'd point out that your point about similar phrasing has some merit, but might be a bit of projection. "hey, that's what I say when I'm scum! therefore, he's scum!" It's similar phrasing, but maybe temper the amplitude of your read since he might not play scum the same way you do.
I really really really disliked this post of teacon defending damo and it's what started me on teacon. "hey, that's what I say when I'm scum! therefore, he's scum!" had nothing to do with my case.

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Re: M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

#775 Post by Durga » Sat May 18, 2019 4:44 pm

bozotheclown wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 4:30 pm
xorxes wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 4:22 pm
EspressoPatronum wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 4:20 pm


I also saw him as more of a discussion driver. He was asking a lot of questions to different people and responding with positive messages.

What do you guys think about Damo not mentioning Teacon in his reads on p20? Teacon highlights it at p22 with, "aww, you left me out.
Also: thanks for being more verbose. keep it coming."

I'm pretty sure Damo mentioned everyone else in his post. It could have been an accident, but maybe he was trying to help separate himself from teacon.
He didn't mention Vapor either.

I already asked Vapor and teacon to comment about that.
It probably means Vapor and teacon are town, I doubt damo would forget to include his teammates.
I mean, it IS damo..

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Re: M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

#776 Post by Durga » Sat May 18, 2019 4:47 pm

Also there's 0 benefit to scum xorx pushing damo like that because he'll just get caught if he isn't nk'd. I think it's pretty safe to say xorx is town

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Re: M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

#777 Post by xorxes » Sat May 18, 2019 4:50 pm

teacon7 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 8:52 pm
Durga wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 8:49 pm
xorxes wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 8:33 pm
Scum!xorxes, last game:


damo, this game:


I'm really surprised that nobody else is at all bothered by this.

I can't see it as mere coincidence. I can come up perhaps with an innocent explanation but it's certainly not the one damo gave, that "we think alike".

If we lynch anyone other than damo today I don't understand what you all are thinking.

I have a dentist appointment in half an hour and may or may not be back for EOD.
I don't get it. Both statements can be made as either alignment. It's just true about bozo.
@bozo, what do you make of this? Are you scum this game? what does that tell us about xorxes and damo? plz weigh in so we can lynch scum. thanks.
This was also horrible. He encourages Durga in her not getting what this is about, tries to make it about me, tries to bring bozo (who had expressed some suspicion of me) to weigh in for support.

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Re: M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

#778 Post by xorxes » Sat May 18, 2019 4:53 pm

teacon7 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 8:55 pm
xorxes wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 8:53 pm
It's not "that's the kind of thing I say when I'm scum", it's "that's the very same turn of phrase I used last game", there's an important difference there.
You really think he just copy/pasted off of your reads from last game? that just seems so... I dunno. lazy? obvious? complimentary?
It was all three, yes.
Quantitative questions:
How many games has damo played?
How many of them were you, xorxes, on the winning team for?
What was all this about???

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Re: M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

#779 Post by xorxes » Sat May 18, 2019 4:55 pm

teacon7 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 9:00 pm
Vaporwave wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 8:54 pm
My vote on Percy is obvious no longer for pressure, I'm not pleased with what he offered so far.
I'm all for lynching Percy today. But I'll move to damo if it's between him and ND. What are you going to do?
I'd say this post plays in favor of teacon. Could be resignation to the inevitable, but maybe he is town after all...

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Re: M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

#780 Post by bozotheclown » Sat May 18, 2019 4:57 pm

xorxes wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 11:33 pm
Vaporwave wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 11:21 pm
xorxes wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 11:13 pm


Well, cop should leave a clear indication of what the scan was for when he flips, but there's no need to reveal early unless it's a guilty. And even if they get a guilty, it might be better to wait and use it in our favor, but that depends on how things develop.
Do you suggest that all players leave peeks in second half of D2?
No! I trust the cop to be smart enough to leave a clear indication of his scan without revealing himself.

Besides, it's not obvious that the cop should scan tonight. It depends a lot on who they are and how exposed they are.
I do not see any reason the cop would not want to maximize the chance of getting their scan in by using it tonight.

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