webdiplomacy.net

The probability of town getting a perfect win is 1/5*2/13*1/11 is 2/715

can the stats dude squiggs conflerm that

Okay, yeah, that's better.

Although no way town agrees to a random lynch, and no way mafia makes a random kill, so...

Attorney wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:34 am

can the stats dude squiggs conflerm that

Both correct.

Here's an exercise for you:

Calculate the probability of for each of all possible lynch sequences and hence determine the overall probablity of a town (or mafia) win.

That should keep you quiet for a little while.

I may not be able to check in Saturday. I will meet requirements for the day cycle, but I've come down with the plague, and may still have to work tomorrow.

Game starts Monday @Percy

Percy Williams wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:28 am

Je confirme

Vive La France

damo666 wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:43 am

Attorney wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:34 am

can the stats dude squiggs conflerm that

Both correct.

Here's an exercise for you:

Calculate the probability of for each of all possible lynch sequences and hence determine the overall probablity of a town (or mafia) win.

That should keep you quiet for a little while.

lol
i did for a 9p vanilla game and 551/945

##GM NOTE
I have pasted a copy of our roles and items for comment. If anyone sees any major problems or has any suggestions just let me know below and I'll work on it. Thanks. Game starts on Monday.

Alien Cop: The Alien cop scans one player each night to determine if they have Alien DNA. Results read as ALIEN DNA or NO ALIEN DNA and they do not differentiate between the actual alien or infected town player. The Alien Cop wins with the town.

Lazy Cop: The Lazy cop scans one player each night to determine if they are a member of the Majestic 12. Results will be received on the subsequent night phase and read MJ-12 Clearance Confirmed or No Security Clearance (Not MJ-12). The Lazy Cop wins with the town.

Army Truck Driver: Each night the Army Truck Driver can pick one player up and switch them with another player. Thus, any night action performed on a switched player will affect the other player targeted by the bus driver. Players switched will receive a PM notifying them they went on a whirlwind ride. The Army Truck Driver wins with the town.

Medicine Man (3x): The Medicine Man has three songs that allow him to restore vitality, balance, and harmony to the holy people.
Song of Restoration (1x): When a body dies (with the exception of disintegration) the spirit goes into limbo for 24 hours (not the god qt). The Medicine Man can act during the day or night phase to sing a song of restoration which will return the spirit to the body at the end of the subsequent phase.
Song of Cleansing (1x): Once per game, the Medicine Man and enact a holy ritual which will remove the Alien Virus, Government Bio Virus, or any other harmful role impairing ability (roleblock).
Song of Healing (1x): Once per game, the Medicine Man may visit a player and protect them with holy herbs and chants. This will protect them from any killing action.
The Medicine Man wins with the town.

Vanilla Townie (10): You are a vanilla townie! Each day you may vote for whoever you believe to be scum. You win with the town.

Mafia (4 Scum PR)

The Mafia have a faction roleblock, but one member that holds the Mafia QT have to carry it out. A Mafia PR cannot take two night actions.

Assassin (1x shot): The Assassin does not possess the mafia qt and does not gain it. Additionally, the assassin has a high capacity rifle and can shoot a target during the day or night. Once the shot is fired they revert to being a traitor with no action. If the traitor/assassin is the last surviving mafia member they can access to the night kill. The Assassin wins with the mafia. They appear as MJ-12 on cop scans.



Godfather: The Godfather is immune to the alien virus and scans as a town player to the lazy cop. They also know the identity of the Assassin, but the Assassin does not know the Godfather’s identity. The Godfather carries out the night kill. The Godfather wins with the mafia.


Item Thief (3x): The Item Thief can visit one player per night and will steal any item they have. They can hold up to one item. After three successful item thefts the Item Thief becomes a Mafia Goon. Players are notified if their item is stolen. The Item Thief appears as MJ-12 on cop scans. The Secretary wins with the Mafia.

Secretary (1x): The Secretary allows the mafia to talk during the day. Additionally, once per game the Secretary may target a player to discover what action they took or did not take during the night phase. The Secretary appears as MJ-12 on cop scans. The Secretary wins with the mafia.

3rd Party

Alien: The Alien is night immune unless targeted by an item that circumvents night immunity. The Alien infects one player each night with the Alien Virus. The player will not learn they were infected. The Alien reads as ALIEN DNA on Alien Cop reports. Players infected by the Alien Virus register the following effects:

-Night of Infection-: The infected player registers as an Alien on Alien Cop reports.
-Following Day Phase-: If the infected player votes for the Alien then their vote will automatically be transferred to whoever the Alien voted for.
-2nd Day Phase-: The infected player’s vote will automatically be transferred to whoever the Alien voted for.
-3rd Day Phase-: The Alien becomes aware of the infected player’s night actions (if any) and can redirect them to whoever the alien wants to target. If there are multiple players that are 3rd day phase infection or beyond the Alien is limited to doing this on one player.

The Alien wins when there is a majority of players infected. Infected players do not switch alignments.

Items:

3x Satellite Phone: A military satellite phone used to communicate at night in -QT- with others who possess a satellite phone.

1x Triage Kit: A military triage kit used to heal grievous wounds

1x Reverse Alien DNA: A Secret Government antibody that reverses the Alien Virus and heals a player of the Alien Virus.

1x Alien Manipulation Ray: A vote is applied elsewhere at the player’s discretion. Can be used during the day phase.

1x Alien Heat Gun: When used on another player during the day phase that player gets extremely hot. It will be publicly revealed that the targeted player cannot vote and any and all votes will be subtracted from vote counts/final vote count. If used at night it works as a roleblock.

1x Government Security Check: A player may check to see if another player is MJ-12 or not. Results come in a day late.

1x Alien Synthesizer: When used a player is able to target another player at night. The targeted player receives an extra item of the targeting player’s choosing from this group.
A gun which can be used during the day.
A dart which is used by pm’ing the gm’s and will not reveal the player who used it. The dart roleblocks the targeted player’s night action (if any)
A military vest which on at night makes the player immune to one night killing action.

1x Holy Herb: Allows the player to ingest a holy herb. Once they take it they select one player. If they are killed then that player’s identity is publicly revealed. In effect for the phase taken and the subsequent phase.

1x Alien Ray Gun: A player is disintegrated. No body, name, or role reveal. If used during the day phase the player disintegrated will still be listed until the post end of day vote count. This circumvents night immunity.

1x Intelligence Box: When used the player will receive whatever PM or Night Action the targeted player took for that night phase unless it is the Alien or a 3rd day infected player who was redirected by the Alien.

There may be still be references to a few other items in that copy/paste post. I've since cut those items so only the items/roles on that copy/paste post are going to be in the game.

Questions:

1. If the Godfather is killed, does the Mafia lose their NK, or does someone else carry it out. If the latter, who?

2. Can the Alien Ray Gun be fired during the day, or only at night?

Ignore Question 2, I see it can be.

I think someone else who possesses the mafia qt carries the kill out. If the item thief has done 3 successful kills then the item thief can carry out the kill or the secretary.

CALL GM:

What happens if the "Reverse Alien DNA" item effect is used on the Alien?

Oh wait again I see - the Alien is night immune.

If the Reverse Alien DNA item is used on the alien it fails. If used on an infected player that player is no longer infected.

Attorney wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:56 pm

I think someone else who possesses the mafia qt carries the kill out. If the item thief has done 3 successful kills then the item thief can carry out the kill or the secretary.

Attorney is correct. Someone who possesses the mafia qt has to carry out the kill and the faction rb. Basically a Mafia PR can't perform two actions in one night phase. So they will have to decide as a group what they want to do.

Well they don't **have** to rb or kill. They can choose not to use those faction abilities. If they wish.

ND wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:12 pm

Attorney wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:56 pm

I think someone else who possesses the mafia qt carries the kill out. If the item thief has done 3 successful kills then the item thief can carry out the kill or the secretary.

Attorney is correct. Someone who possesses the mafia qt has to carry out the kill and the faction rb. Basically a Mafia PR can't perform two actions in one night phase. So they will have to decide as a group what they want to do.

So, just to be clear, even though the ASSASSIN is Mafia aligned, if all the other Mafia are killed and they're the only scum left, does that mean the Assassin cannot perform nightkills?

No it should say it in the role. If all other mafia are dead the assassin gets nk power.