MAFIA 43 - GAME THREAD

[Squigs44]

Attorney was spamming the thread day in and day out and then suddenly stopped.

##vote attorney

For the record I think it's very likely Attorney is scum. However, we can guarantee that with a scan with the party cop tonight. I don't think anyone has lied about their alignment so I don't think the party cop has the potential to do anything else.

For that reason, I don't think we should lynch Attorney today and instead focus our efforts on people that are harder to clear.

Can we though? What if Attorney was the non-cons scum now realised he has to change back?

Scum is either conservative or DUP. If Attorney scans as either, we lynch him. If he doesn't scan as either, he is guaranteed to not be scum.

[Ezio]

Why aren't we just getting rid of him then? He could be rb or something

The downside is pretty huge if he's telling the truth and just got cold feet. Mafia don't have any broken PR's we have to worry about. The RB's only purpose now is to hit our party cop which isn't worth the risk.

[Ezio]

Attorney was spamming the thread day in and day out and then suddenly stopped.

##vote attorney

For the record I think it's very likely Attorney is scum. However, we can guarantee that with a scan with the party cop tonight. I don't think anyone has lied about their alignment so I don't think the party cop has the potential to do anything else.

For that reason, I don't think we should lynch Attorney today and instead focus our efforts on people that are harder to clear.

Can we though? What if Attorney was the non-cons scum now realised he has to change back?

The only non con scum is DUP, so still scum

[RagingIke297]

We should absolutely execute the plan assuming it's auto win, but I don't want everyone to get complacent here.

Correct, if we get complacent we start thinking crazy things, like Xorxes is town

Ike. Buddy. The arguments you've made have not been that it's "likely" Xorxes is town. The arguments you've made have been it's "possible" for Xorxes to be town.

You're going off the deep end here. Frankly I like it. What I want you to do is see if a Scum! Xorxes has defended any non-con in particular. See if he's made any defenses that are inconsistent with some of his arguments OUTSIDE of the conservative pile.

We are going to lynch every conservative before we lynch any non-con so if Xorxes is scum we will absolutely catch him.

Says he doesn't like Thamrick on pg 46
Bozo is probably town on 67
Fox is not lynch material on 76
He's been on attorney pretty hard since the flip back, but I'm not a fan of the flip back either soooooo

Maybe Foxy? This is just me looking through the bot at work, might have missed stuff.


Also something else, he kinda changed opinions on where we should lynch from day 1 to day 2, day 1 was
"We lynch whoever is scummiest.

The conservative pile should have a higher scum concentration if we reach a certain number of conservative claims."

Now day 2 is "Any conservative is fair game" and "OK, vote for one of the con claims, we're not lynching noncons today"

[RagingIke297]

Here's the thing I don't get.

Almost everyone thinks Fox is scum. Literally the only thing saving him is that he claimed non-con. I think that if we let him live then we just give him more time to improve his play and try to cover it up. If we lynch Fox then its auto.

I know I'm going to be lynched sooner or later, I'm conservative. I knew that when I claimed it and I expect nothing less, that being said, if Ezio wasn't a PR then his case would never have gotten this much traction. More likely actually that he would be my competing wagon if my wagon formed at all.

Ah, yet another person falling into the "everyone told the truth" pit.

Also the proper sentence would be, "if we lynch fox and he's scum then it's auto"

[xorxes]

Why aren't we just getting rid of him then? He could be rb or something

The downside is pretty huge if he's telling the truth and just got cold feet. Mafia don't have any broken PR's we have to worry about. The RB's only purpose now is to hit our party cop which isn't worth the risk.

The Mafia obviously thought I may be the Party Cop, which I'm obviously not going to confirm or deny. Even so, I'm in favor of letting Attorney live for today.

[xorxes]

Also something else, he kinda changed opinions on where we should lynch from day 1 to day 2, day 1 was
"We lynch whoever is scummiest.

Dah, that was for the benefit of the Mafia. I wanted them to feel safe claiming conservative.

The conservative pile should have a higher scum concentration if we reach a certain number of conservative claims."

Now day 2 is "Any conservative is fair game" and "OK, vote for one of the con claims, we're not lynching noncons today"

Indeed, we reached the magic number of con claims where it makes sense to lynch only cons. I don't know if you're being dense or scum, I tend to think the latter.

[Foxcastle]

I am skimming through, but won't be able to do a full catchup. I have a few minutes. But again, I am in the middle of a major work event and won't have time to do much the rest of today or tomorrow.

The case that Xorxes is deep scum is unconvincing. I mean it's possible, but wow, I don't see it. (Although it is super convenient that his conservative claim means he might be a lower NK priority than non-cons, so the usual "if Xorxes is still alive after day 2" or whatever may not apply here.)

If the plan is for the party cop to deal with Attorney tonight, I will need to reconsider who to vote for. I am unlikely to vote for any non-conservative, and I'm not sure why people think, if there are scum-conservatives that claimed non-con, and town-non-cons who claimed conservative, why the town non-cons haven't come forward to illuminate the situation.

[xorxes]

Here's the thing I don't get.

Almost everyone thinks Fox is scum. Literally the only thing saving him is that he claimed non-con. I think that if we let him live then we just give him more time to improve his play and try to cover it up. If we lynch Fox then its auto.

I know I'm going to be lynched sooner or later, I'm conservative. I knew that when I claimed it and I expect nothing less, that being said, if Ezio wasn't a PR then his case would never have gotten this much traction. More likely actually that he would be my competing wagon if my wagon formed at all.

Neph, if you are town, the pile of con scum candidates for you is smaller than for most everyone else. Why are you concentrating on Fox or Ezio instead of trying to figure out which three of Durga/flash/rivera/damo/Ike/tom are the scum? It's 50% and you don't seem to care! When do you get a pool with such a high percentage of practically guaranteed scum?

[flash2015]

Where is damo? I don't think he has posted at all D2.

[flash2015]

Here's the thing I don't get.

Almost everyone thinks Fox is scum. Literally the only thing saving him is that he claimed non-con. I think that if we let him live then we just give him more time to improve his play and try to cover it up. If we lynch Fox then its auto.

I know I'm going to be lynched sooner or later, I'm conservative. I knew that when I claimed it and I expect nothing less, that being said, if Ezio wasn't a PR then his case would never have gotten this much traction. More likely actually that he would be my competing wagon if my wagon formed at all.

Neph, if you are town, the pile of con scum candidates for you is smaller than for most everyone else. Why are you concentrating on Fox or Ezio instead of trying to figure out which three of Durga/flash/rivera/damo/Ike/tom are the scum? It's 50% and you don't seem to care! When do you get a pool with such a high percentage of practically guaranteed scum?

You are assuming that Nepthys is guaranteed scum? Just curious why you left him out here.

[Ezio]

Here's the thing I don't get.

Almost everyone thinks Fox is scum. Literally the only thing saving him is that he claimed non-con. I think that if we let him live then we just give him more time to improve his play and try to cover it up. If we lynch Fox then its auto.

I know I'm going to be lynched sooner or later, I'm conservative. I knew that when I claimed it and I expect nothing less, that being said, if Ezio wasn't a PR then his case would never have gotten this much traction. More likely actually that he would be my competing wagon if my wagon formed at all.

Neph, if you are town, the pile of con scum candidates for you is smaller than for most everyone else. Why are you concentrating on Fox or Ezio instead of trying to figure out which three of Durga/flash/rivera/damo/Ike/tom are the scum? It's 50% and you don't seem to care! When do you get a pool with such a high percentage of practically guaranteed scum?

You are assuming that Nepthys is guaranteed scum? Just curious why you left him out here.

Flash, the answer is in the quote. Please reread it and if you still miss it ask again and I'll explain.

[flash2015]

Neph, if you are town, the pile of con scum candidates for you is smaller than for most everyone else. Why are you concentrating on Fox or Ezio instead of trying to figure out which three of Durga/flash/rivera/damo/Ike/tom are the scum? It's 50% and you don't seem to care! When do you get a pool with such a high percentage of practically guaranteed scum?

You are assuming that Nepthys is guaranteed scum? Just curious why you left him out here.

Flash, the answer is in the quote. Please reread it and if you still miss it ask again and I'll explain.

Ignore me. I am a little dense today

[xorxes]

Here's the thing I don't get.

Almost everyone thinks Fox is scum. Literally the only thing saving him is that he claimed non-con. I think that if we let him live then we just give him more time to improve his play and try to cover it up. If we lynch Fox then its auto.

I know I'm going to be lynched sooner or later, I'm conservative. I knew that when I claimed it and I expect nothing less, that being said, if Ezio wasn't a PR then his case would never have gotten this much traction. More likely actually that he would be my competing wagon if my wagon formed at all.

Neph, if you are town, the pile of con scum candidates for you is smaller than for most everyone else. Why are you concentrating on Fox or Ezio instead of trying to figure out which three of Durga/flash/rivera/damo/Ike/tom are the scum? It's 50% and you don't seem to care! When do you get a pool with such a high percentage of practically guaranteed scum?

You are assuming that Nepthys is guaranteed scum? Just curious why you left him out here.

"Neph, if you are town, ..."

Attorney is the one I left out because we're all more or less in agreement he is scum.

[flash2015]

Neph, if you are town, the pile of con scum candidates for you is smaller than for most everyone else. Why are you concentrating on Fox or Ezio instead of trying to figure out which three of Durga/flash/rivera/damo/Ike/tom are the scum? It's 50% and you don't seem to care! When do you get a pool with such a high percentage of practically guaranteed scum?

You are assuming that Nepthys is guaranteed scum? Just curious why you left him out here.

"Neph, if you are town, ..."

Attorney is the one I left out because we're all more or less in agreement he is scum.

I understood. Brain fart on my part.

[thamrick]

Tom Has almost nothing posted, but I think we got lucky and he's town.

[Attorney]

Neph, if you are town, the pile of con scum candidates for you is smaller than for most everyone else. Why are you concentrating on Fox or Ezio instead of trying to figure out which three of Durga/flash/rivera/damo/Ike/tom are the scum? It's 50% and you don't seem to care! When do you get a pool with such a high percentage of practically guaranteed scum?

You are assuming that Nepthys is guaranteed scum? Just curious why you left him out here.

"Neph, if you are town, ..."

Attorney is the one I left out because we're all more or less in agreement he is scum.

why
I will stop fluffing btw

[Attorney]

Guys.
Can you please keep me alive and let party cop scan me and instead hang neph.
I claimed conservative to mess with the mafias info.
Neph is a conservative claim so we can't gain any info from the Party Cop scan of Neph if we lynch me.

[Attorney]

The theory was that by increasing the conservative pool size we would decrease the chance mafia hit the party cop.
The language he used was "i claimed to add noise to conservative pile"

Yes. The problem is that he claimed conservative before I suggested that, as an improvement to the original plan, some noncon might consider claiming conservative. I didn't really want that to happen, but just seed the doubt in the Mafia's minds that it may happen, so that the Party Cop could be found in either camp.

Now it is possible that Attorney had all these ideas that he never shared about fakeclaiming to confuse the Mafia, and if his conservative claim had come after I made the suggestion, well, maybe the retract would be more believable. But the obvious candidates for fakeclaiming were the PRs who could prove themselves town if needed, not a backbencher that couldn't.

So no, his retraction is not believable, but still we don't need to lynch him today.

Plus, of course, it made no sense to retract when he did. If he wanted to confuse the Mafia, why retract?

it was after n1 and then i realized i needed to tell the truth

[Percy Williams]

That is AWFUL reasoning to vote for Bozo. Do people in the USA not understand basic maths and probability? We already have a big advantage in this setup. We shouldn't give that away by potentially mislynching in the non-con pool, at least this early in the game. If all else fails, I would argue it would be better you vote for me than voting for Bozo, especially since you already say you scumread me.

Since I'm not from the land down under, I have to be from the USA?