Re: Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda
Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:45 pm
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Vecna wrote: ↑Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:19 pmDid he ever follow up on it? Did he ever give you any indication he was suspicious about your alignment and that he was trying to sort you?Ezio wrote: ↑Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:46 pm
You're just wrong here. Not only are people just curious when lunatics make crazy claims outta nowhere, but it even is optimal for town to care.
Town likes to know other people's reasoning to analyze it. If the "magic words" were shitty/useless/not real I'd imagine it would affect his read of me.
My point was that -town XORXES- normally doesnt care about such frivolous small details. He thinks in the big lines, just lets you post, and makes up his own mind on the sidelines.
Even if you disagree with my reasoning, do you also disagree with the conclusion? Still waiting for you to reveal why you suddenly had that epihany (which I believe is wrong).
Ezio, can you just make clear before EOD whether your Xorxes read is based on your own deduction, or based on a power role? Because our roles are not revealed when we flip, this is very important.
@Vecna, here is an example of some reasoning you have on me in this game. Does the Squigs flip impact your view at all?Vecna wrote: ↑Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:53 am...snip...
That leaves these 5 slots that I think contain all scum:
Balki Bartokomous
Damian
Rdrivera2005
Squigs44
xorxes
...snip...
Balki is just in full on scummode. Trying to ask for a mass-claim. Poking at Ezio's words to try and frame it in a pro-scum way. He came on before EOD, asked for people about a potential vote, probably saw that Squigs was gonna be alright, so he just vanished.
I personally think the scum is Balki + squigs + one of (Damian/Rd/Xorx/Ghug/Bozo)
Wait...what? What do you mean I can assume you are?
Fine for you to be "hella skeptical," but also know that trying to work with your town reads and engage with them is just smart play and makes the town work. So, obviously weigh that with the possibility that I am scum doing something nefarious, but the truth is I am trying to put a coalition of crime-fighting do gooders together.damian wrote: ↑Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:28 pmReading Balki's reactions going through his re-read it feels like he's trying to hunt for townreads. Rather than scum hunting. Seems scummy to me.
Also I don't love the way he's buddying me, complimenting my colour question, reassuring me he isn't reading me as scum before asking a question. I feel like he's trying to woo me. And I'm hella skeptical.
Wait...why does this seem scummy? Did you mean to say: "seems really smart to me"?
This is why a mass reveal makes a lot of sense. We are really close. If we have info roles that have uncovered any info, whether it's a town scan, or a guilty scan, or somebody visited someone else; or if we have someone who can basically clear himself, or has the ability to clear someone else; we can get very close to solving the game right now.Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:35 pmWait...why does this seem scummy? Did you mean to say: "seems really smart to me"?
I know that 3/7 of the following are scum:
bozotheclown
Damian
Ezio
FoxCastle
rdrivera2005
Vecna
xorxes
Every time I can correctly townread someone in that group, the odds of the others being scum goes up a ton. If I can correctly pick out four townies in that group, I've solved the game.
Why on Earth wouldn't I be looking carefully for town reads and using process of elimination? I think that is a lot more effective than trying to accurately catch someone being "scummy."
+1Squigs44 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:29 pmOn a reread of Foxcastle, I realized just how much he hedges and backtracks and rambles. It is almost like every post. Here are just a few of the many examples:
Here is a rambling post:Here is a post where he uses all sorts of hedgy language (bolded for your convenience:Foxcastle wrote: ↑Sun Dec 02, 2018 10:20 pmGenerally, I think Ezio is more prone to sitting back and not trying to lead town or come up with weird plans. (His predisposition to no-lynch aside...) So that he put a kinda wacky plan out there there seems out of character, and he even noted that it might have been one of his biggest posts ever. So either he's scum and trying to do something unexpected to make us think that he's town because scum wouldn't draw attention to themselves like that and townies are known to want to try new plans; or he's town and genuinely thinks we have a better shot if we eliminate the best/worst scum/town players. And when you put it like that, it kinda points to scum, but see also the point where I think Ezio is smarter than that... But then, that's exactly the trap I warned about falling into...Especially interesting is his part about not expecting Ezio to be a wagon, but still voting him.Foxcastle wrote: ↑Mon Dec 03, 2018 10:05 pmI am leaning scum Ezio because I think his plan for lynching people based on who's good/bad scum/town was off. I mean, the plan was flawed, but also it was off that he proposed it. But it's not a strong read. Also, he has posted more and been more engaged than in previous games, which is different, but then this is a different game, and besides, he's been silent for something like 15 hours now, so who knows if that means/meant anything.
I think Ezio is the more interesting flip, so that's where my vote is now, and also to prompt him to participate if he shows back up before EOD. But given that he hasn't been around to make it more or less interesting, I suspect that he will actually not get a wagon today. (I try not to read too much into when people are around, but I also think it's true that we tend to lynch active players over less active players, so lurking is in fact a good scum strategy early on...)
I'm having a little trouble on Damian, but am leaning scum on. He was super awkward, and that's not scummy in and of itself, but there's something off there. Also, his style and tone is different from what I can tell by a brief comparison to his last town game (M33). After the whole color test, I'm not sure what to think—that was silly (not scummy), and some of his questioning after that has gotten better, and I don't have a real baseline for him.
Balki, Xorxes, and Vecna seem pretty townie. But they are often hard for me to read. Ghug and Flum, too.
Bozo seems like town. Or at least seems like he's not scum. I would not vote for Bozo at this point, but I do want to see how that progresses.
I don't scumread ND and rdrivera, and rdrivera is another player that's hard for me to read, but I usually have a better sense of them as time goes by. (And then there's my old theory that when rdrivera is being scumread by a significant portion of game, he's actually town, and when he's mostly townread is when he's scum... We'll see.)
Okay, so those posts were pretty early in the game, and it is okay to hedge, since you know next to nothing, right? Well, let's look at a more recent post, where he makes an argument, and then undermines the whole thing with a paragraph at the end with some left-field speculation:
Usually, hedging and setting yourself up for an easy backtrack is pretty scummy, because it allows you to switch to whatever is most convenient for you. However, with Foxcastle, it seems more like he is legitimately just thinking out loud, and coming up with new thoughts as he types. This stream-of-thought approach actually has me thinking Fox.Foxcastle wrote: ↑Tue Dec 04, 2018 10:10 pmFrom what I have seen, scum tend to avoid clumping together, so I really doubt all three of them are on ND. That's not perfect in this case, because if Squigs was saved, then the scum had to support the ND wagon to do it. But even in that case, I think at least one scum would go somewhere else, and where better than to bus their scummate who they know is likely to remain on the chopping block in coming days?
If it was town-v-town, then scum didn't need to help the ND wagon at all. My general thought on scum is that they don't want to clump up and they want to blend in, they don't want to be implicated in a mislynch but also don't want to be seen totally avoiding the action, and so the second place wagon is a good place for one of them to land.
But I think this is the smallest game I've played, and that could make a difference (I don't see how, but maybe), and also they have a day chat, which means they can coordinate themselves much better if they do decide to bus/clump/whatever.
For those that say Foxy is one of the town-locks, what is it about Fox that makes you so sure?
Ezio also apparently liked Vecna's Balki/Squigs scumteam post. Did the Squigs flip impact your Balki read at all? If not, why not?Ezio wrote: ↑Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:14 pmUh this was vecnas good post about balki.
"Balki is just in full on scummode. Trying to ask for a mass-claim. Poking at Ezio's words to try and frame it in a pro-scum way. He came on before EOD, asked for people about a potential vote, probably saw that Squigs was gonna be alright, so he just vanished.'
Well, sometimes I talk that way, especially when evaluating an idea that looked so ridiculous, but turned out to have correct results. I thought that was pretty funny, and so I sort of highlighted it in an amused kind of way.
Is this true? I tend to think the opposite -- that scum have an easier time throwing around shade, but are reluctant to douse flames of other people's scum reads because giving town reads cuts off options. There is probably no hard and fast rule here.
Really? Asking if anyone has a gun is PR fishing? Give me a break.
This strikes me as very town.rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:57 pmWhy should I do that? Lock my vote in someone that I townread? I still have hope that people could see you are a better option. And also, I don´t think I am a so valuable asset to town to cast a defensive vote with one hour to go. I considered it when I look the tie, but thought it would be pointless.
Can someone tell me what the vote count was when rdrivera left? I did not think he had many votes on him at all, so this "rdrivera would have been more survivalist" strain of thought seems wrong. I know I had placed a vote on him. Did anyone else? Maybe Squigs?ghug wrote: ↑Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:12 pmThis strikes me as very town.rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:57 pmWhy should I do that? Lock my vote in someone that I townread? I still have hope that people could see you are a better option. And also, I don´t think I am a so valuable asset to town to cast a defensive vote with one hour to go. I considered it when I look the tie, but thought it would be pointless.
Vote count when Squigs said that:
I think there were 4 town votes on rdrivera at EOD2. What does that tell you about the votes on Squigs?