Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

[Vecna]

Ezio is putting on a show. I don't like it.

I can actually get this. Would he really be so obvious about it if he was scum with Rdrivera though? Bozo also openly asking for people to vote on the counterwagon to Rdrivera....

[Vecna]

Wait wait wait. No no no no. RD is the counterwagon not Damian. Bad Ezio.

RD is almost certainly town if squiggs flips scum.

Maybe there were no counter-wagons, just people being setup for the next mislynch?

[Vecna]

#pleasesavesquigs

See, this is trying to make it look like Rdrivera is the scum counter-wagon, from a Balki that already knows Squigs is about to townflip.

[bozotheclown]

Everyone else does not know it yet, but Squigs D1 wagon was all town. It is interesting none of the scum jumped to Squigs instead of ND. Maybe they did not want to be seen as the deciding vote on Squigs.

Assuming all the scum did not move to ND D1, one or more of Foxcastle, Balki, and Ezio are scum. I think there is a good chance Ezio is town, and I suspect Foxcastle is town as well, so I think Balki is the scum. That would mean 2 scum moved to ND, and the possibilities are Vecna, xorxes, damian, and rdrivera. I think damian is one, I am not sure about the other.

##VOTE Balki Bartokomous

[Vecna]

So. Unless Scum has a false information role. Ghug, Flum and Squig are all town.

Hard to learn anything about Vecna from that EOD I’m still leaning town on him. But I feel more confident that RDR is scum.

So RDR, Fox, Ezio?

I actually think these 3 are all most likely town.

[Vecna]

Why wouldn’t Rdriveria choose to move his vote to Squig as the current leading wagon, to make it harder for us to lynch him?

Town angle - Trying to push the person he things is scummiest, not worried about protecting himself.

Scum angle - Trying to protect Squig.

What are yout thoughts about rd now that we know Squigs was town?

Slimy slimy slimy

[Vecna]

Xorxes is now 100% confirmed town, and I swear to god anyone who tries to lynch him will be chainsawed the fuck outta here.

Xorxes, thank you for saying the magic fucking words. I love you so much right now.

What were the magic words?

Town dont care about this also btw. Its just scum Xorxes trying to make a mental note on how he can succesfully fool people, since he's been less effective in that in the past.

[Vecna]

Maybe they vote during the day and the NK processes together with the lynch?

So, just started my reread. I have to point this out. There was confusion on the first page about how the game would work with no night phase. Xorxes was the first to speculate that the NK would process together with the lynch.

I think this was a reasonable guess, and it is what I was thinking would probably happen too. But I think it's significant that Xorxes was the first to put that guess in thread, and it seems like this is exactly correct. I would think that scum knew exactly how these mechanics worked form the start, and they would be hesitant to reveal the correct mechanics, for fear it would give them away.

I betcha Xorxes is town.

This is terrible reasoning. And just pure wifom. Scum would love to just have some mechanical stuff to talk to, knowing they could always later easily rely on such reasoning to look better.

[Vecna]

We have 4 mislynches in the worst case scenario before we lose.

I feel like Foxy is too sure about the setup here in this Day 1, page 4 post, right? I mean, I felt so in the dark Day 1, I did not think to tally up the potential mislynches. This really looks scum indicative to me.

##vote Foxcastle

Its wrong info though because 4 mislynches results in 8 towndeaths, results in 3 scum vs 2 town.

We have 3 mislynches. Day4 is lylo if we mislynch today.

[Vecna]

This post from Damian on page 7 is aging quite well.

He town reads Xorxes and Vecna, which I am thinking is probably right at this point in time.

He town reads Tom, and notes ND is asking good questions. Obviously both those guys are town.

Throws a bit of suspicion at Balki and Foxy, and I can understand why.

I'm liking Damian a bit more.

Cross post. ##VOTE Balki then

This really just comes outta nowhere and is looking like scum bussing.

[Vecna]

Why on Earth I am still alive? I entered the game expecting to see a PM with the link to the God thread, and have to see you lynched town Squigs and that Ghug is town cleared.
Now I need to endure two days with Balki puting his little show before you finally myslinch me.
I still need to read EOD and the last pages, but won't do that now. Good night.

Yeah, im thinking the scum offensive is going all-in on Rdrivera.

I could even see Balki having a valid case on the Bozo + Rdrivera case, if it werent for the fact he completely ignores Xorxes here in his reads progression, even after that little 1 on 1 he had with him just before that.

[Vecna]

Got myself a little break. I've got no idea how Oracle works. I wasn't suggesting that scum would have a power to do a fake reveal like that. Way too powerful in a closed set up.

But if Scum had one of those fancy roles that shows up innocent on a scan like the godfather. Wouldn't that be a problem?

Based on what people are saying we have 2 mislynches left before we lose. So I'm going to treat ghug as town-cleared regardless.

I've got no idea what to make of Balki's burst of re-read analysis. I pretty much agree with his scum team though. I'd have loved it to come soon before the phase in hopes of pushing a few more people to Fox with me.

Although from his scum team Bozo's still a null for me, and I'm feeling Ezio more so. But RDR and Fox have looked pretty scummy to me.

Vecna is still looking quite town to me. With both him and Xorxes pushing for Balki I'd be curious to hear more about that case. As they've both put forward some good arguments thus far.

I'm part of the ranks of the great unwashed. I don't understand the xorxes town clear. I'm leaning town on him, but no more so than Balki. Which is to say. A solid Null.

Im gonna need to appeal to you later on. Because your vote is probably gonna be the one that allows scum what they intend to do here, or will be the difference in us still recovering from this.

[Vecna]

Why on Earth I am still alive? I entered the game expecting to see a PM with the link to the God thread, and have to see you lynched town Squigs and that Ghug is town cleared.
Now I need to endure two days with Balki puting his little show before you finally myslinch me.
I still need to read EOD and the last pages, but won't do that now. Good night.

Interesting reaction. Do you think I am town or scum? Explain.

Why did you think you were going to die? And why do you say you have to “endure two days”? That’s quite a defeatist attitude. If you are Town, you still have lots of time to make your alignment clear.

This defeatist attitude is in line with town Rdrivera in my experience. He's quite the fighter as scum, so unless he is being set up as the bus of the day to make the scum lynching him look good, this is more likely a town tell.

[Vecna]

Everyone else does not know it yet, but Squigs D1 wagon was all town. It is interesting none of the scum jumped to Squigs instead of ND. Maybe they did not want to be seen as the deciding vote on Squigs.

Assuming all the scum did not move to ND D1, one or more of Foxcastle, Balki, and Ezio are scum. I think there is a good chance Ezio is town, and I suspect Foxcastle is town as well, so I think Balki is the scum. That would mean 2 scum moved to ND, and the possibilities are Vecna, xorxes, damian, and rdrivera. I think damian is one, I am not sure about the other.

##VOTE Balki Bartokomous

Yeah bozo really feels like scum here.

[Vecna]

Without confbiassing myself even further into the team, oversight time.

Town pile:
Vecna
Ezio
Damian
ghug

Scum pile:
Balki Bartokomous
bozotheclown
FoxCastle
rdrivera2005
xorxes

Im pretty certain that my town pile is correct. I feel I have pretty damn good reasons in my mind that strongly make me feel that Damian and Ezio are just obv-town here. There is a slight slight chance one of them is just having an extremely stellar scum-game, but both of them just feel purely genuine.

From the scumpile, I feel best about Foxcastle. With a decent margin. All of this is purely based on initial gutfeelings about his walls though, and I historically fucking suck at reading Foxcastle.

From a gamestate, I feel it is extremely likely that at least some scum have designated Rdrivera as the next mislynch. I also know for a fact TODAY is where the bussing is starting to form. All of this makes complete sense with my initial impression of a Balki + Bozo + Xorxes scumteam. Xorxes did that thing where he suddenly voted Balki for townreading Damian. Extremely weird. Balki on the other hand, is completely ignoring Xorxes. Bozo is voting Balki. Also for no reason whatsoever, no genuine thought that I can discern that has brought him to that. Also really feels like a bussing vote. Meaning scum has set themselves up in such a way that they can either mislynch Rdrivera, or bus Balki for credit. Both these outcomes would be decent for them.

The alternative is that my initial gut on Rdrivera was correct. This still means that any of the people in the scumpool can be his allies. Balki couldve started the bussing early as a counter-wagon to Squigs. I find this slightly more unlikely, since it really would benefit scum a lot to get that mislynch in the bag. Bozo seems like an obvious candidate, but I also think it would be really bad scumplay to so openly have Bozo ask Xorxes to vote on squigs as opposed to Rdrivera. Foxcastle sadly really is the big questionmark here, and I still do not really know how to feel about that. It also makes him an easy target for the Balki, which he is now indeed pushing as well.

Overall I think Rdrivera is a bad lynch today. Im taking the risk of looking bad if he does turn up scum at some point, but I believe Xorxes and Bozo have to be scum in nearly any scum configuration here.

[Vecna]

##Vote Xorxes

[Vecna]

I know my (scum)reads have been widely shit so far in this game.

My townreads have been completely on the money however (maybe with the exception of Fox, that is yet to be revealed).

Im really hoping that I can convince Ezio/Damian/Ghug here. I also really want to urge whomever is town in that pile of 5 to step up their game bigtime.

[bozotheclown]

This post from Damian on page 7 is aging quite well.

He town reads Xorxes and Vecna, which I am thinking is probably right at this point in time.

He town reads Tom, and notes ND is asking good questions. Obviously both those guys are town.

Throws a bit of suspicion at Balki and Foxy, and I can understand why.

I'm liking Damian a bit more.

Cross post. ##VOTE Balki then

This really just comes outta nowhere and is looking like scum bussing.

Why not vote for Balki then?

[Vecna]

Feel free to actually read my posts and you might find the answer

[rdrivera2005]

Why on Earth I am still alive? I entered the game expecting to see a PM with the link to the God thread, and have to see you lynched town Squigs and that Ghug is town cleared.
Now I need to endure two days with Balki puting his little show before you finally myslinch me.
I still need to read EOD and the last pages, but won't do that now. Good night.

Interesting reaction. Do you think I am town or scum? Explain.

Why did you think you were going to die? And why do you say you have to “endure two days”? That’s quite a defeatist attitude. If you are Town, you still have lots of time to make your alignment clear.

I was really upset last night, mostly because of out of game things, so it reflect a bit on this post. I tought I will be dead because I did a quick look at Peter´s bot before my tennis game starts and I was tied with Squigs at 3. I was pretty sure Damian and Xorxes will end voting me, so I was really expecting to be gone and I didn't have much to do about it.

I was also frustrated the votes on me are the type:

Balki Bartokomous
Day-2 01:43
page 35 / orig
↑rdrivera2005: "I found this Ghug wagon pretty weird. Did a quick re-read on him and didn't found anything really scummy other then his ..."
You see — this here as all the characteristics of a scummitty scumbucket post.

##vote rdrivera

I’m Town, follow me please.

ghug
Day-2 01:40
page 35 / orig
Damian weren't you good at this game at one point?

##vote Rd

Squigs44
Day-2 00:43
page 37 / orig
Alright, so lynching Bozo is not gonna happen. I don't like these wagons. I really dislike voting Rdrivera after he said he is leaving, but I honestly think he is scummier than Damian.

##vote Rdrivera

Would move to a Flum wagon if it popped up.

How can I defend from this kind of vote? People vote for me because my posts "looks scummy", what does this really mean? This also make me frustrated and more angry. I am probably the player with the biggest meta as scum in this site and this kind of analysis is so poor. My posts as scum are a lot more careful, I even write them on Word to have less spelling mistakes, but this is obviously WIFOM.

About you being town or scum I was leaning town on you and scum on Ghug. Now that Ghug is conf town I think I might be wrong about you too, but I don't have a case to build and will not pretend I have, I need to do some VCA and re-reading after the flips and knowing Ghug is town.
What bothers me most is you call my post above as scummy, but you didn't do exactly what you ask people to do when analysing you: why scum rdrivera will enter the thread after a myslynch and make a frustrated post? To get towncred? It was a hell of a bad attempt if this is my motivation. Scum rdrivera will just lurk until next day and expect townie people to fight each other or will buss hard considering scum has a big advantage at this moment.