Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

[bozotheclown]

Your assumption is not correct.

The D1 Squigs wagon was all town, and it is possible the D2 Squigs wagon was all town. Why? I don't know, but with town pushing Squigs, the scum probably had no reason to join in.

I find this supposition about D2 to be odd. For it to be true. RDR would have to be town. Which would leave you with precisely three people would could be scum candidates.

Myself, Vecna and Balki.

I find the supposition especially curious because we still don't know a significant chunk of the Squig wagon on D2's alignments.

I said it was possible, not certain, because my guess is that Foxcastle, Ezio, and xorxes are town. Why couldn't rdrivera be scum if the Squigs wagon was all town?

I do think you and Balki are good scum candidates, though.

[damian]

Consider how the EOD went.
The vote was tied, there was a very serious chance of him being lynched depending on what Xorxes decided.

If he was scum it would make sense for at least one other scum vote to be trying to protect him by being in of the Squig wagon.

Unless scum already knew how Xorxes would vote.

Also RDR said he saw the votes tied and decided not to move to Squigs. Does that seem like an action scum would take to you? It’s the one part of his game that’s making me doubt my scum read of him

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Fox, your post on me is mostly narrative, but I think you have a few reasons in there among everything else. Can you distill your thinking on me down to about 2-5 bullet points so that we can have a pointed conversation about it? If I respond to that whole long thing, line-by-line, nobody is going to read it.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Also, you have a bunch if sarcastic comments in there trying to shade me for saying I was going to do stuff later and then not doing stuff when I said I would.

I think I was pretty clear that I had real life stuff through Tuesday and I would pick it up on Wednesday. That was true. I returned from a trip on Tuesday night, I had a bunch of email and stuff to catch up on Wednesday morning, and then I basically devoted my whole afternoon on Wednesday and much of Thursday to getting caught up.

Frankly, I wasn’t super keen on playing this game, based on timing and some other stuff. I was invited with great charm and vigor, and I felt like saying yes even if the timing wasn’t great. If you think any of this is alignment indicative, please explain. I don’t need to read your sarcasm about it any more.

[Foxcastle]

@Fox, your post on me is mostly narrative, but I think you have a few reasons in there among everything else. Can you distill your thinking on me down to about 2-5 bullet points so that we can have a pointed conversation about it? If I respond to that whole long thing, line-by-line, nobody is going to read it.

Lazy. And I suspect he's fishing for more material that he can use to pick apart what I've written, like he did to Vecna's read of him. I hope you're a good guy in real life, Balki, because if you're lawyering for the mob or something, that's terrifying.

[Foxcastle]

Also, you have a bunch if sarcastic comments in there trying to shade me for saying I was going to do stuff later and then not doing stuff when I said I would.

I think I was pretty clear that I had real life stuff through Tuesday and I would pick it up on Wednesday. That was true. I returned from a trip on Tuesday night, I had a bunch of email and stuff to catch up on Wednesday morning, and then I basically devoted my whole afternoon on Wednesday and much of Thursday to getting caught up.

Frankly, I wasn’t super keen on playing this game, based on timing and some other stuff. I was invited with great charm and vigor, and I felt like saying yes even if the timing wasn’t great. If you think any of this is alignment indicative, please explain. I don’t need to read your sarcasm about it any more.

I am absolutely not shading you for when you've been able to play. I have had my own real life commitments that have gotten in the way of game, and I think that, in general, we just have to trust other players to not abuse that as an excuse for lurking.

I see that at the end of Day 2 my expectations for your participation were perhaps high. You said you had some work to do that morning and would then be engaged. And you were, but I was probably expecting too much given you didn't have time to apologize, and you did get right to it the next day. So I apologize for that, but I'm not scumreading you for when you were able to play.

I am scumreading you for claiming that you're gamesolving when you aren't presenting cases, evidence, or anything else that's convincing beyond reactions that some things are scummy.

[Foxcastle]

I see that at the end of Day 2 my expectations for your participation were perhaps high. You said you had some work to do that morning and would then be engaged. And you were, but I was probably expecting too much given you didn't have time to apologize, and you did get right to it the next day. So I apologize for that, but I'm not scumreading you for when you were able to play.

My brain ran ahead of my fingers here. It should say, "...you didn't have time to analyze, and you did get right to it the next day. So I apologize..."

I'm not expecting an apology from you, to be clear, and I'm sincere in my own apology if it seemed like I was trying to insinuate you were avoiding the game.

[bozotheclown]

Consider how the EOD went.
The vote was tied, there was a very serious chance of him being lynched depending on what Xorxes decided.

If he was scum it would make sense for at least one other scum vote to be trying to protect him by being in of the Squig wagon.

Unless scum already knew how Xorxes would vote.

Also RDR said he saw the votes tied and decided not to move to Squigs. Does that seem like an action scum would take to you? It’s the one part of his game that’s making me doubt my scum read of him

rdrivera was never leading in votes, the scum could have gotten away with never voting for Squigs with rdrivera as scum. However, I did not say I did not think rdrivera was town.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I see that at the end of Day 2 my expectations for your participation were perhaps high. You said you had some work to do that morning and would then be engaged. And you were, but I was probably expecting too much given you didn't have time to apologize, and you did get right to it the next day. So I apologize for that, but I'm not scumreading you for when you were able to play.

My brain ran ahead of my fingers here. It should say, "...you didn't have time to analyze, and you did get right to it the next day. So I apologize..."

I'm not expecting an apology from you, to be clear, and I'm sincere in my own apology if it seemed like I was trying to insinuate you were avoiding the game.

All good. No worries. You weren't being at all malicious, I just don't want to have to respond to the "you said you were going to be here X, and you were here Y" stuff. I don't think any of it is possibly alignment indicative anyway, so let's just focus on the meat.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Fox, your post on me is mostly narrative, but I think you have a few reasons in there among everything else. Can you distill your thinking on me down to about 2-5 bullet points so that we can have a pointed conversation about it? If I respond to that whole long thing, line-by-line, nobody is going to read it.

Lazy. And I suspect he's fishing for more material that he can use to pick apart what I've written, like he did to Vecna's read of him. I hope you're a good guy in real life, Balki, because if you're lawyering for the mob or something, that's terrifying.

Is it lazy?

I am not at all fishing for more material, I just want to have a focused discussion directed at the stuff that you say you find alignment indicative. I can try to distill your points down to what "looks" like the stuff that you care about and actually moves you, but then you'll likely say I've got it wrong, or I'm misrepresenting you, or I'm a lawyer for the mob or something. I want a focused discussion here that people will actually be able to read and understand.

If you won't try to organize your thinking into what you really care about, then I'll try to do it in about an hour or so.

[Foxcastle]

I am not at all fishing for more material, I just want to have a focused discussion directed at the stuff that you say you find alignment indicative. I can try to distill your points down to what "looks" like the stuff that you care about and actually moves you, but then you'll likely say I've got it wrong, or I'm misrepresenting you, or I'm a lawyer for the mob or something. I want a focused discussion here that people will actually be able to read and understand.

If you won't try to organize your thinking into what you really care about, then I'll try to do it in about an hour or so.

I think there are enough people interested in you right now, Balki, that the most useful thing for town is to see you tackle it on your own.

[Ezio]

I think you are the most likely scum of those that did not vote for ND, and I doubt all three scum voted for ND.

Doesn't really answer the question. Also, what? That is crazy bizarre.

So...the ND wagon lynched a townie, right? So, are you saying that people off of that wagon are particularly likely to be scum? Why?

I agree that probably not all scum voted for ND, but that's just based on general math.

Why do you consider me to be scummy other than the fact that I did not vote to lynch Town!ND?

I do not know how this does not answer the question. Obviously I am voting to lynch you because I think you are scum, and I told you the reason why I think that. It is not that complex, but I will restate it:
1. I doubt all three scum moved to the ND wagon at EOD.
2. You, Foxcastle, and Ezio are the only remaining possibilities for a scum that did not vote for ND.
3. I think Foxcastle is town.
4. I was assuming Ezio is town, although I am not as sure now.
5. By POE, you are likely scum.

To answer your other question, yes, I think there are other reasons to suspect you as scum. I like some of the points made Vecna, xorxes, and Foxcastle. Some examples of things I find suspicious are your town read of damian for his color test results and your push on Foxcastle.

Hey bozo can you put a %certainty next to each of your points here? In order for it to be true, all of those must be true. Multiply them out and see what the result is. That's how sure you are they're scum.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I am not at all fishing for more material, I just want to have a focused discussion directed at the stuff that you say you find alignment indicative. I can try to distill your points down to what "looks" like the stuff that you care about and actually moves you, but then you'll likely say I've got it wrong, or I'm misrepresenting you, or I'm a lawyer for the mob or something. I want a focused discussion here that people will actually be able to read and understand.

If you won't try to organize your thinking into what you really care about, then I'll try to do it in about an hour or so.

I think there are enough people interested in you right now, Balki, that the most useful thing for town is to see you tackle it on your own.

I mean...it's just a narrative of a reread of me, going through many of the things I've done and trying to shade everything. Then there is a conclusion at the end repeating the same sort of "Balki is making noise but he's not trying to catch scum" nonsense that I cannot refute because I do not understand at all what you are trying to say.

If you want to be understood, tell us a concise set of reasons why you think I am scum. If you're sticking with: "making noise but not solving," as the only thing. That's fine. I'll focus on refuting that. If there is more buried in that text wall, bring them out or post your whole big thing and bold the stuff that really moves you.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I'm working on the task that ghug assigned to me, which is to analyze the various arguments made against me from the perspective of "is this more likely to come from scum or town." Right now I'm looking at:

Argument 1: Scum is likely to spread out. So because Balki voted for Ezio Day 1 and then rdrivera Day 2, and nobody else fits that profile, Balki is more likely to be scum.

Argument 2: I think it is likely that not all scum voted for ND. Blake is the most likely to be scum out of the non-ND wagon group.

Argument 3: Balki's scum meta is to make a lot of noise, but not to solve or make cases that can later be used to evaluate him when he is proven wrong, and he fits that meta here.

Argument 4: Balki and Vecna are trying to setup rdrivera if rdrivera is town. If rdrivera is scum, then Balki and Vecna are trying to clear rdrivera if one of them flips.

Argument 5: Balki's town read of Damian just because Damian had a bunch of town reads on Day 1 that turned out to be correct/color howitzer seems scummy.

Argument 6: Balki's reread seems more focused on finding town reads than on finding scum reads.

I'll have analysis on these in about an hour or so, but if there are "Balki is scum because" arguments that I have missed, would you please tell me what they are? Also, if you think I am mischaracterizing or misunderstanding one of these arguments, I'd be interested to know that too.

[damian]

Can we not lynch Balki.
His latest posts feel so much like town desperate to avoid a mislynch.

Considering if we mislynch tomorrow is probably LYOL. I’d feel a lot better if the top wagon wasn’t starting to give me town vibes.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Without confbiassing myself even further into the team, oversight time.

Town pile:
Vecna
Ezio
Damian
ghug

Scum pile:
Balki Bartokomous
bozotheclown
FoxCastle
rdrivera2005
xorxes

Im pretty certain that my town pile is correct. I feel I have pretty damn good reasons in my mind that strongly make me feel that Damian and Ezio are just obv-town here. There is a slight slight chance one of them is just having an extremely stellar scum-game, but both of them just feel purely genuine.

From the scumpile, I feel best about Foxcastle. With a decent margin. All of this is purely based on initial gutfeelings about his walls though, and I historically fucking suck at reading Foxcastle.

From a gamestate, I feel it is extremely likely that at least some scum have designated Rdrivera as the next mislynch. I also know for a fact TODAY is where the bussing is starting to form. All of this makes complete sense with my initial impression of a Balki + Bozo + Xorxes scumteam. Xorxes did that thing where he suddenly voted Balki for townreading Damian. Extremely weird. Balki on the other hand, is completely ignoring Xorxes. Bozo is voting Balki. Also for no reason whatsoever, no genuine thought that I can discern that has brought him to that. Also really feels like a bussing vote. Meaning scum has set themselves up in such a way that they can either mislynch Rdrivera, or bus Balki for credit. Both these outcomes would be decent for them.

The alternative is that my initial gut on Rdrivera was correct. This still means that any of the people in the scumpool can be his allies. Balki couldve started the bussing early as a counter-wagon to Squigs. I find this slightly more unlikely, since it really would benefit scum a lot to get that mislynch in the bag. Bozo seems like an obvious candidate, but I also think it would be really bad scumplay to so openly have Bozo ask Xorxes to vote on squigs as opposed to Rdrivera. Foxcastle sadly really is the big questionmark here, and I still do not really know how to feel about that. It also makes him an easy target for the Balki, which he is now indeed pushing as well.

Overall I think Rdrivera is a bad lynch today. Im taking the risk of looking bad if he does turn up scum at some point, but I believe Xorxes and Bozo have to be scum in nearly any scum configuration here.

^ Towny post.

Still feeling like Vecna is town.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Vecna, I'm reviewing your posts and trying to put your Balki read into a concise argument. Your read strikes me as sincere, frankly, but it's hard for me to put it into words, as your progression is a long set of reactions to various posts, in which you speculate about why they are consistent with Scum!Balki. If you could put your Balki read into a set of bullet points, what would they be?

I do think your argument is sincere, and I think the mistake you are making is due to confirmation bias. You seem to be reading everything I write and considering how it might make sense from the perspective of Scum!Balki. What is missing from your analysis is you are not thinking about how the same post would make sense from Town!Balki, and then weighing which is more likely.

In this game, your biggest error, in my view, is that you should have gone back and recalibrate after the Squigs flip. Many of your posts about me prior to EOD2 were about how I was protecting Squigs, who you viewed as scummy. And if you thought Squigs was scummy, then it would make sense that you viewed me through a skeptical lens. But then after Squigs flipped, you did not go back to the drawing board, you kept that skeptical lens and just conf biased yourself into: "well, maybe Scum!Balki was trying to defend Town!Squigs to get Town credit." I mean sure, that is a possible thing that scum do, but you've never seriously weighed the alternative, which is: "Maybe Town!Balki actually had a sincere town read on Squigs and did not want him to be mislynched.

I have a very strong record on this site of being good at town reads. I have a lot of confidence in my town reads. You should consider the possibility that I have made some accurate town reads in this game, and I am trying to help us win.

[damian]

You’ve made a good list of the arguments against you.
I believe ghug’s question was what do you think the motivation behind each line of argument is.

Not what the motivation for each person was.

[Balki Bartokomous]

You’ve made a good list of the arguments against you.
I believe ghug’s question was what do you think the motivation behind each line of argument is.

Not what the motivation for each person was.

Yeah, I know. Working on that now.

[damian]

The change is Ezio’s posting patter has been pretty massive. D2 he was the most prolific poster. Today we are less than 5 hours from the deadline and he has been one of the least prolific posters.

D2 he was in full, controlling the town, everyone should follow me mode.
D3 that’s all but vanished, he’s asking lots of questions about what the rest of us thinking about people he wants to lynch and despite claiming to have a town lock on Xorxes he’s not suggesting anyone sheep him.

I can understand differences in time being responsible for the difference in post count. But the difference in post tone is scummy.

He should be our lynch target today