Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

[rdrivera2005]

@Rdr You could have moved your vote to Squig before you left to help prevent your near lynch. Why didn't you.

Why should I do that? Lock my vote in someone that I townread? I still have hope that people could see you are a better option. And also, I don´t think I am a so valuable asset to town to cast a defensive vote with one hour to go. I considered it when I look the tie, but thought it would be pointless.

[rdrivera2005]

Now I need to endure two days with Balki puting his little show before you finally myslinch me.

I am really struggling to understand how this post from rdrivera could come from town. I mean, I’m not even voting rdrivera right now. I’m voting Foxcastle. Nobody is voting rdrivera. And nobody has really hopped on and said “Yep, Balki’s Town. He seems to be on to something.” Why is rdrivera so resigned to his fate here?

@rdrivera, can you tell us about your reads of Foxy, Bozo, and Ezio? And can you tell us why you’re so sad and resigned to your fate?

I am a guy who can be swayed by good arguments. If you’re town, you have tons of time and I don’t even want to lynch you first. Come here and town it up.

I think I answered a part of this on my last answer to you, let me answer the rest. And the same things I said there is valid here. You said you struggle to see why this post come to town rdrivera, but please explain why do you think scum rdrivera will do such a post? I referred to you because you started the wagon on me and you were also on a strike of a dozen posts where on half of them you either call me scummy or put me in your scum team.

I am townreading Fox, specially because of the interaction with Damian, I can't see why scum Fox will choose to buddy me and I don´t think scum Damian will be bussing Fox this way. The fact you are voting him also makes me think he is town to be honest. I am torn on Bozo. He has some towny moments and he is sticking his neck more then I remember when we were scum together, but sometimes his post seems just filler. I had a scumread on Ezio from D1, but I need to re-read him after last day, I just don't see why Ezio would defend me the way he did as scum, but also the thing on Xorxes stroke me bad as Ezio like a lot this kind of plot when he is scum. I have a lot of respect for Ezio play as scum since the game where we were scum together and he counterclaimed me to get lynched and made me win on lylo.

I am not resigned to my faith, I fight to the end either as town or as scum, and I will do it here. But my biggest flaw in Mafia (and diplomacy at some extent) is convincing people about my views. I usually have more success as scum because people ignore me a lot and this allow me to stay alive longer. And I use this to my favor when I am Mafia, but it sucks when I am town.

[damian]

Vecna is still looking quite town to me. With both him and Xorxes pushing for Balki I'd be curious to hear more about that case. As they've both put forward some good arguments thus far.

I think you are town, so don’t assume suspicion when I ask you this question, but what do you to believe to be Vecna and Xorxes’s “good arguments” that I am scum?

I haven't seen any yet. Which I why I wanted to hear more about that case from them. I meant that they had put forward good points in general.

Vecna in particular has does some impressive analysis during his bursts of activity.

[damian]

I had a scumread on Ezio from D1, but I need to re-read him after last day, I just don't see why Ezio would defend me the way he did as scum, but also the thing on Xorxes stroke me bad as Ezio like a lot this kind of plot when he is scum. I have a lot of respect for Ezio play as scum since the game where we were scum together and he counterclaimed me to get lynched and made me win on lylo.

You've got a somewhat unique perspective right now.
We already know that day one the two main wagons at the end. ND and Squig were town v.s. town.

But you also know the alignment of both main wagons for day 2. If day 2 was also town v.s. town. What motivation could Ezio have to try and protect you. What motivation did Balki, Bozo and Ghug (town) have to push for you.

[damian]

I'm no longer sure what to think about RD.
His first post after the flip, where he talked about having to suffer through two more days. Once again sounded like him playing scared. Which I think is a scum indicator.

But failing to vote for Squigs especially if he saw that it was tied. I'm not sure. That's not consistent with him playing scared.

[Balki Bartokomous]

So, just started my reread. I have to point this out. There was confusion on the first page about how the game would work with no night phase. Xorxes was the first to speculate that the NK would process together with the lynch.

I think this was a reasonable guess, and it is what I was thinking would probably happen too. But I think it's significant that Xorxes was the first to put that guess in thread, and it seems like this is exactly correct. I would think that scum knew exactly how these mechanics worked form the start, and they would be hesitant to reveal the correct mechanics, for fear it would give them away.

I betcha Xorxes is town.

This is terrible reasoning. And just pure wifom. Scum would love to just have some mechanical stuff to talk to, knowing they could always later easily rely on such reasoning to look better.

This is not terrible reasoning and it’s not pure wifom.

Scum enter the game with secrets. And they know that revealing that they have these secrets could get them caught and lose them the game. I believe it would be an unnatural reaction to show up on page one to “speculate” correctly about exactly how the kill/EOD mechanic works.

And I reject your “wifom” suggestion because the argument I am making is not a usual argument and not something that xorxes would have in mind on page 1.

Vecna, you always read me as scum. And I think you’re reading everything I write thinking “what diabolical thing is Scum!Balki trying to do here?” You need to have an open mind.

[damian]

Looking back at D1 voting patterns knowing that it was Town. v.s. Town I would guess that scum would be spread out. And at least one would have parked themselves off the main two wagons.

That group is: Fox, Balki, Ezio.

Group 2 is people who voted for Squigs: Bozo, Ghug, ND, Tom

Group 3 is people who voted for ND: Vecna, Xorxes, Damian, Rdriveria, Flum, Squigs

Black is dead townie. Gold is Confirmed Townie. Blue is Group 1, Red is Group 2 and Green is Group 3

So lets see how these groups divide themselves up during Day 2

Squigs: Fluminator , bozotheclown, Foxcastle, Ezio, xorxes

Rdriveria: Balki Bartokomous, ghug, Squigs44, damian

Not on a wagon: Vecna, Rdriviera

Bozo has been consistently a Squig voter. Which could be a sign of lazy scum finding a target and latching on. Or it could be a consistent scum read. Certainly during day 1 bozo's justification felt fairly flimsy.

I'm not sure what else to take out of the voting patterns. Myself, RDR and Vecna were all non-squig voters both days. But Rdr and Vecna missed the end of day 2. So I don't think there is really much I can take away from that.

Fox and Ezio both moved to voting Squig after being on different wagons day 1. I'd like to go back and see how their reads evolved. Because that pattern could be spreading for cover before moving to the target set up for day 2. Especially if Rdr is actually scum.

[damian]

I would be shocked if all the scum voted together on day 2.

Which means from
Balki Bartokomous, Vecna, Rdriviera. I expect there to be 1 scum.
Probably Rdr? Maybe Balki. Unlikely to be both, imo. I'm also pretty sure Vecna is town which means.

From bozotheclown, Foxcastle, Ezio, xorxes there has to be 2 scum. I feel like all of the players here are scummy to null at best though.

[Ezio]

Xorxes is now 100% confirmed town, and I swear to god anyone who tries to lynch him will be chainsawed the fuck outta here.

Xorxes, thank you for saying the magic fucking words. I love you so much right now.

What were the magic words?

Town dont care about this also btw. Its just scum Xorxes trying to make a mental note on how he can succesfully fool people, since he's been less effective in that in the past.

You're just wrong here. Not only are people just curious when lunatics make crazy claims outta nowhere, but it even is optimal for town to care.
Town likes to know other people's reasoning to analyze it. If the "magic words" were shitty/useless/not real I'd imagine it would affect his read of me.

[Vecna]

I had a scumread on Ezio from D1, but I need to re-read him after last day, I just don't see why Ezio would defend me the way he did as scum, but also the thing on Xorxes stroke me bad as Ezio like a lot this kind of plot when he is scum. I have a lot of respect for Ezio play as scum since the game where we were scum together and he counterclaimed me to get lynched and made me win on lylo.

You've got a somewhat unique perspective right now.
We already know that day one the two main wagons at the end. ND and Squig were town v.s. town.

But you also know the alignment of both main wagons for day 2. If day 2 was also town v.s. town. What motivation could Ezio have to try and protect you. What motivation did Balki, Bozo and Ghug (town) have to push for you.

(to set up the next mislynch)

[Vecna]

So, just started my reread. I have to point this out. There was confusion on the first page about how the game would work with no night phase. Xorxes was the first to speculate that the NK would process together with the lynch.

I think this was a reasonable guess, and it is what I was thinking would probably happen too. But I think it's significant that Xorxes was the first to put that guess in thread, and it seems like this is exactly correct. I would think that scum knew exactly how these mechanics worked form the start, and they would be hesitant to reveal the correct mechanics, for fear it would give them away.

I betcha Xorxes is town.

This is terrible reasoning. And just pure wifom. Scum would love to just have some mechanical stuff to talk to, knowing they could always later easily rely on such reasoning to look better.

This is not terrible reasoning and it’s not pure wifom.

Scum enter the game with secrets. And they know that revealing that they have these secrets could get them caught and lose them the game. I believe it would be an unnatural reaction to show up on page one to “speculate” correctly about exactly how the kill/EOD mechanic works.

And I reject your “wifom” suggestion because the argument I am making is not a usual argument and not something that xorxes would have in mind on page 1.

Vecna, you always read me as scum. And I think you’re reading everything I write thinking “what diabolical thing is Scum!Balki trying to do here?” You need to have an open mind.

Speculating correctly is the easiest way to get townread for the wrong reasons. Because then as I said, you can just claim that you were towny for reasoning correctly, because scum would "obviously never" do that. Like I said. Its wifom.

And the fact you didnt even consider the alternative, while Xorxes has proven time and again that he is a capable player, just makes me think you had an agenda for doing so.

And trying to frame me as not being open minded is not going to help you see me things correctly. Resorting to "you always read me as scum" will neither accomplish that, since all it tries to do is discredit my reads.

[Vecna]

What were the magic words?

Town dont care about this also btw. Its just scum Xorxes trying to make a mental note on how he can succesfully fool people, since he's been less effective in that in the past.

You're just wrong here. Not only are people just curious when lunatics make crazy claims outta nowhere, but it even is optimal for town to care.
Town likes to know other people's reasoning to analyze it. If the "magic words" were shitty/useless/not real I'd imagine it would affect his read of me.

Did he ever follow up on it? Did he ever give you any indication he was suspicious about your alignment and that he was trying to sort you?

My point was that -town XORXES- normally doesnt care about such frivolous small details. He thinks in the big lines, just lets you post, and makes up his own mind on the sidelines.

Even if you disagree with my reasoning, do you also disagree with the conclusion? Still waiting for you to reveal why you suddenly had that epihany (which I believe is wrong).

[bozotheclown]

I would be shocked if all the scum voted together on day 2.

Which means from
Balki Bartokomous, Vecna, Rdriviera. I expect there to be 1 scum.
Probably Rdr? Maybe Balki. Unlikely to be both, imo. I'm also pretty sure Vecna is town which means.

From bozotheclown, Foxcastle, Ezio, xorxes there has to be 2 scum. I feel like all of the players here are scummy to null at best though.

Why is 2 from the first group and 1 from the second group not possible?

[bozotheclown]

Feel free to actually read my posts and you might find the answer

I did, and your conclusion always seems to be that Balki is scum, either because of something he said, how he voted, or he was likely bussed.

[Foxcastle]

I am not going to be able to add a lot today, but will be able to do some rereading and have more to say tomorrow.

Ezio is big question for me now, and I clearly need to just rethink the game. And I'm glad Balki is here and participating, because (and I'm trying to step back and be objective in reading him and not fall into OMGUS) this is his scum meta.

[bozotheclown]

Bozo is voting Balki. Also for no reason whatsoever, no genuine thought that I can discern that has brought him to that. Also really feels like a bussing vote.

You had just given a number of reasons why you suspect Balki, and presumably why others should suspect him, but say I have no reason to vote for him. Why post all of that if you do not think it is possible to persuade others? Besides, I did say why I was voting for him.

[damian]

I would be shocked if all the scum voted together on day 2.

Which means from
Balki Bartokomous, Vecna, Rdriviera. I expect there to be 1 scum.
Probably Rdr? Maybe Balki. Unlikely to be both, imo. I'm also pretty sure Vecna is town which means.

From bozotheclown, Foxcastle, Ezio, xorxes there has to be 2 scum. I feel like all of the players here are scummy to null at best though.

Why is 2 from the first group and 1 from the second group not possible?

I don’t think Balki would have started the wagon on RDR day 2 and pushed for people to move to it if they are scum teammates. The conclusion was pretty up in the air until Xorxes made his decisions

[Balki Bartokomous]

Speculating correctly is the easiest way to get townread for the wrong reasons. Because then as I said, you can just claim that you were towny for reasoning correctly, because scum would "obviously never" do that. Like I said. Its wifom.

I don’t think this is an “easy way to get townread,” and I don’t think anyone would have the expectation on page 1 that if they are the first to correctly speculate about the correct EOd mechanics that someone will go back and read them as town for it. I think my read here is unusual and unexpected, which avoids the wifom traps.

Considering the psychology of scum, who just received a bunch of secrets that town did not have, I think they would be more likely to think “If someone goes back and sees that I was right about all the things that scum know about and town don’t know about, then I’ll be caught as scum.

And the fact you didnt even consider the alternative, while Xorxes has proven time and again that he is a capable player, just makes me think you had an agenda for doing so.

How can you say I have not thought about the alternative? I have thought very carefully about the alternative. I have explained why I don’t expect scum would place a post like that in order to get a town read later — the town read I am flinging is counterintuitive and unexpected. I’ve certainly “considered the alternative,” and I’ve analyzed it and I think the most likely case here is that’s Xorxes is town.

And trying to frame me as not being open minded is not going to help you see me things correctly. Resorting to "you always read me as scum" will neither accomplish that, since all it tries to do is discredit my reads.

Well, I am not trying to discredit all of your reads. I am trying to discredit one of your reads, which I know to be wrong.

And I don’t really know how to help you see things correctly. My technique right now is to engage with you, and get you to consider the fact that you frequently read me as scum when I am town, and I believe you are town doing that again. You continually point out why Scum!Balki might do certain things. You very rarely consider why Town!Balki might do the same things. Town!Balki is a good dude — he can be helpful. Don’t miss out on an opportunity to use him to your advantage.

[Vecna]

I am not going to be able to add a lot today, but will be able to do some rereading and have more to say tomorrow.

Ezio is big question for me now, and I clearly need to just rethink the game. And I'm glad Balki is here and participating, because (and I'm trying to step back and be objective in reading him and not fall into OMGUS) this is his scum meta.

Why is it his scum meta?

[Vecna]

Speculating correctly is the easiest way to get townread for the wrong reasons. Because then as I said, you can just claim that you were towny for reasoning correctly, because scum would "obviously never" do that. Like I said. Its wifom.

I don’t think this is an “easy way to get townread,” and I don’t think anyone would have the expectation on page 1 that if they are the first to correctly speculate about the correct EOd mechanics that someone will go back and read them as town for it. I think my read here is unusual and unexpected, which avoids the wifom traps.

Considering the psychology of scum, who just received a bunch of secrets that town did not have, I think they would be more likely to think “If someone goes back and sees that I was right about all the things that scum know about and town don’t know about, then I’ll be caught as scum.

And the fact you didnt even consider the alternative, while Xorxes has proven time and again that he is a capable player, just makes me think you had an agenda for doing so.

How can you say I have not thought about the alternative? I have thought very carefully about the alternative. I have explained why I don’t expect scum would place a post like that in order to get a town read later — the town read I am flinging is counterintuitive and unexpected. I’ve certainly “considered the alternative,” and I’ve analyzed it and I think the most likely case here is that’s Xorxes is town.

And trying to frame me as not being open minded is not going to help you see me things correctly. Resorting to "you always read me as scum" will neither accomplish that, since all it tries to do is discredit my reads.

Well, I am not trying to discredit all of your reads. I am trying to discredit one of your reads, which I know to be wrong.

And I don’t really know how to help you see things correctly. My technique right now is to engage with you, and get you to consider the fact that you frequently read me as scum when I am town, and I believe you are town doing that again. You continually point out why Scum!Balki might do certain things. You very rarely consider why Town!Balki might do the same things. Town!Balki is a good dude — he can be helpful. Don’t miss out on an opportunity to use him to your advantage.

Sure. Help me understand your read on FoxCastle a bit more indepth.