Mafia XL - A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum

[Balki Bartokomous]

Id like some stances from balki on where hes standing with reads on people. lotsa asling questions, no visible processibg of said information with the exception being the squigs bit.

I don't think this is a correct description of my play, but in any event:

Town reads on Bozo and Squigs. I also feel pretty good about xorxes and damo.

Leaning scum on Jamiet, ND, DemonRHK

Feeling like I could vote for thdfrance for secret mysterious reasons.

Can you recap your skepticism of me?

[ND]

I really don't like Damo's statements about 'light posters' and then gravitating towards Peterlund's wagon. If he was going to vote for a "light poster" then how exactly did he arrive at Peter. There are a few "light posters" why him? Going to Peter, to me, reflects his motive to put his vote on a player with a wagon vs a player with no wagon. Granted, if you look at the M40 global stats Peter is at the bottom, but DemonRHK is below him and both bo and DrCJG are near Peter in post count. So, why pick Peter from that group of four? Because Peter, has a wagon. He has since moved the vote to Jamie. A player who can't even defend himself. Both are viable wagons at this point though.

next point

The Jamie wagon is just weird. Jamie isn't even playing so the players voting Jamie are voting to lynch that player spot. If someone subs in, are those players still going to vote to lynch that new player? Regardless? If no one subs in then they are voting to lynch a player who has quit the game and can't even defend his alleged actions. If no one subs in then it's getting modkilled and will be revealed anyway. I don't like it.

[ghug]

Is EoD at 3 or 4?

[Foxcastle]

Is EoD at 3 or 4?

##GM NOTE: EOD is at 5PM Eastern Time, which is in 4 hours and 40 minutes.

[bozotheclown]

Dr CGJ

I think light posters are good to vote for to try get them engaged.

They are as good a D1 lynch as anyone else if there is limited stuff to go on.

In fact it would be interesting to do a scum/day1 post frequency analysis but I ain't got the time.

I agree voting them to get engaged... indeed that's exactly what i said you were doing in my previous post.

By contrast though, I would actually bet scum are more likely to avoid being a light poster D1... at least I have found that when I am scum I tend to want to constantly be in the conversation sometimes pushing it sometimes riding the coat tails but rarely wanting to draw attention as someone not working to solve.

It has been my experience that players talking about their own scum meta to explain why they are town is scum indicative.

[ghug]

Oh shit it's at 2

[Szpoti]

Even if he is VT it is better than a mislynch of a town PR and he may well be modkilled anyway. We hardly want to lose 2 town.

This is incorrect thinking. As town, we need as much info as possible. Voting for someone already getting modkilled is the equivalent of voting no-lynch. It has the exact same outcome.

I agree we hardly want to lose 2 town, but if Jamie is town and gets modkilled there is nothing we can do to save that slot. A vote on Jamie in that case means we guarantee that we don't hit scum D1, we gain little to no info, scum gets a NK, and we start D2 down 2 town.

Any argument against a No-Lynch can be applied to voting for a modkilled person.

Exactly what I've tried to convey in my post, here explained with technical precision.

[RagingIke297]

4 hours until end of day, let's start consolidating people

[rdrivera2005]

Ok, not sure how much I will be able to play this afternoon, but will try to be online at EOD.
I am still comfortable with my vote on Demon. I could also vote on Damo or Ike in this order of the current wagons.
I can't understand Jamiet being top wagon, it's incredible lame lynching an empty spot D1. And I think it's a town spot.
The wagon on Peter is also lame, can't see anything scummy on his short ISO.

[Foxcastle]

VOTE COUNT

Peterlund (3) — Tom Bombadil, RagingIke, bozotheclown
damo666 (3) — ND, bo_sox48, peterlund
DemonRHK (3) — rdrivera2005, xorxes, Squigs44
RagingIke (3) — thdfrance, worcej, DrCJG
thdfrance (2) — DemonRHK, ghug
bo_sox48 (1) — Vecna
No-lynch (1) — Szpoti

I do not expect it to be the case, but in the event that a sub is not found in time for EOD, Jamiet will remain a valid vote, but for the time being I have voided votes on/by him.

CURRENTLY NO ONE IS SET TO BE LYNCHED

There are 3 hours and 50 minutes remaining in Day 1.

[Squigs44]

Even if he is VT it is better than a mislynch of a town PR and he may well be modkilled anyway. We hardly want to lose 2 town.

This is incorrect thinking. As town, we need as much info as possible. Voting for someone already getting modkilled is the equivalent of voting no-lynch. It has the exact same outcome.

I agree we hardly want to lose 2 town, but if Jamie is town and gets modkilled there is nothing we can do to save that slot. A vote on Jamie in that case means we guarantee that we don't hit scum D1, we gain little to no info, scum gets a NK, and we start D2 down 2 town.

Any argument against a No-Lynch can be applied to voting for a modkilled person.

Jamie might be goon though.

If you think he is goon then vote for him, but defend that case that he is goon. I wasn't criticizing your vote, I was criticizing your point about the "already being modkilled" stance you took. I personally don't think that Jamie's reaction to everything is more town indicative than scum indicative, but if you disagree than persuade me otherwise.

[Squigs44]

I really don't like Damo's statements about 'light posters' and then gravitating towards Peterlund's wagon. If he was going to vote for a "light poster" then how exactly did he arrive at Peter. There are a few "light posters" why him? Going to Peter, to me, reflects his motive to put his vote on a player with a wagon vs a player with no wagon. Granted, if you look at the M40 global stats Peter is at the bottom, but DemonRHK is below him and both bo and DrCJG are near Peter in post count. So, why pick Peter from that group of four? Because Peter, has a wagon. He has since moved the vote to Jamie. A player who can't even defend himself. Both are viable wagons at this point though.

next point

The Jamie wagon is just weird. Jamie isn't even playing so the players voting Jamie are voting to lynch that player spot. If someone subs in, are those players still going to vote to lynch that new player? Regardless? If no one subs in then they are voting to lynch a player who has quit the game and can't even defend his alleged actions. If no one subs in then it's getting modkilled and will be revealed anyway. I don't like it.

@ND - When you say both are viable wagons, do you mean damo and peter? If so do you think there is some bussing going on, or do you just think one of the two is scum.

[yavuzovic]

The whole "this is what scum would do in this situation" thing is very common on Webdip. Lots of people use this thinking, and almost everyone that uses it gets called out for it, but it really isn't correlated with being scum. Demon is grasping at reasons to vote anyone.

Also about Demon's comment on thd pushing a Xorxes obvtown:
Xorxes has not been obvtown this game. thd gives reasoning behind his votes, and freely admits that they are based more off of his feelings of Xorxes' interactions with others.

Both of Demon's votes look forced to me, and he has posted very little else in content.

##Vote DemonRHK

I agree, I will follow this because that's exactly what RHK has done so far. ##vote DemonRhK
Because after reading Squigs' post about why we shouldn't vote for Jamie I want to vote someone else and it's probably RHK. It will be awesome if we catch a scum D1!

[yavuzovic]

If Jamie doesn't die we can consider.

[damo666]

Squigs - 'may well be' is hardly 'already being' but I don't want to pursue that point.

I think Jamie's action is indicative of being non-PR but no idea if goon or VT.

Given I don't have any strong -ve reads and don't particularly like any of the alternative wagons I think it's reasonable to vote Jamie as it least it avoids a mislynch of a town PR and may bag a goon.

AND given there are less than 3 hours left there is definitely a non zero chance of him being modkilled.

So, no, I can't persuade you he is goon but I hope you agree he is probably non-PR. In the circs I think (for the time being anyway) it is a reasonable vote.

[damo666]

Is flash to replace Jamie? I see him.

[Squigs44]

Squigs - 'may well be' is hardly 'already being' but I don't want to pursue that point.

I think Jamie's action is indicative of being non-PR but no idea if goon or VT.

Given I don't have any strong -ve reads and don't particularly like any of the alternative wagons I think it's reasonable to vote Jamie as it least it avoids a mislynch of a town PR and may bag a goon.

AND given there are less than 3 hours left there is definitely a non zero chance of him being modkilled.

So, no, I can't persuade you he is goon but I hope you agree he is probably non-PR. In the circs I think (for the time being anyway) it is a reasonable vote.

If you choose a random person to vote for you have a 5/21 = 23.8% chance of hitting scum. If you choose a random person out of goons and vts you have a 2/15 = 13.3% chance of hitting scum.

I hate using odds because nothing a player does in this game is random, but it seems like you are voting Jamie because of odds which are definitely not in your favor.

[thdfrance]

Peterlund (3)
damo666 (3)
DemonRHK (3)
RagingIke (3)

Of these four I think damo and Ike could possibly be scum. Null read on peter and slight town on Demon. Going to leave my vote on Ike right now...but I think we learn stuff from lynching ike or damo

[thdfrance]

Voting Jamie is a horrible idea. We don't have nearly enough information on him to make any semblance of an educated guess...and we know he's erratic to begin with. I think we should put our votes in a different basket.

[Squigs44]

Like your vote on Jamie is just so logically flawed I can't believe you are actually arguing this. It also gives you an easy out, since you can say you didn't scumread him. You are avoiding actually scumreading anyone.