webdiplomacy.net

I think I'm the bigger town liability, especially now, and should go.

Durga wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:45 pm

i would never have made this play under normal circumstances but really i just hate you all

yeah it's a bad play. now they'll NK you and keep silent neph

Foxcastle wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:47 pm

I think I'm the bigger town liability, especially now, and should go.

this means "i'm a less useful role than teacon and should go"

teacon7 wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:48 pm

Durga wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:45 pm

i would never have made this play under normal circumstances but really i just hate you all

yeah it's a bad play. now they'll NK you and keep silent neph

where is the middle finger emoji? ##CALL JMO

Durga wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:47 pm

ChippeRock wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:46 pm

Durga wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:43 pm

i'm leading the lynch on chipperock tomorrow skrrrttt

Do it than. You'll solidify how badly you've played as town so far this game by lynching a VT - thus, you would of committed the same crime "I did" when my vote ended up being the difference maker in lynching Espresso, and making you hypocritical.

okay boo, stop abusing your town clears you scummy bitch <3

Imagine the uproar Durga would of caused if I had called Durga a b*tch... Except wait, b*tch is really offending to me in any way - try some other insult.

GM NOTE

Worcej is stuck in a work meeting and I'm adjudicating all this from my phone, so bear with me.

10 minutes remain.

Foxcastle wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:47 pm

I think I'm the bigger town liability, especially now, and should go.

@Fox if you are VT you must switch back. Teacon could be scum/BA. Only needs 1 other to switch.

ChippeRock wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:49 pm

Durga wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:47 pm

ChippeRock wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:46 pm

Do it than. You'll solidify how badly you've played as town so far this game by lynching a VT - thus, you would of committed the same crime "I did" when my vote ended up being the difference maker in lynching Espresso, and making you hypocritical.

okay boo, stop abusing your town clears you scummy bitch <3

Imagine the uproar Durga would of caused if I had called Durga a b*tch... Except wait, b*tch is really offending to me in any way - try some other insult.

is = isn't

damo666 wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:50 pm

Foxcastle wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:47 pm

I think I'm the bigger town liability, especially now, and should go.

@Fox if you are VT you must switch back. Teacon could be scum/BA. Only needs 1 other to switch.

I don't think I will ever not be in the way of actually lynching scum/BA. And Mafia will never kill me after this.

damo666 wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:50 pm

Foxcastle wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:47 pm

I think I'm the bigger town liability, especially now, and should go.

@Fox if you are VT you must switch back. Teacon could be scum/BA. Only needs 1 other to switch.

Yes, even the small sliver of a chance that teacon is scum/BA is much better for town than confirmed lynching a VT (who might be less useful than the other "VT").

Why are town committing suicide?

i would really like teacon to die.

So yeah, my theory on Durga being IC was another big part of my townread on her, but I wasn't gonna say that before.

To demonstrate that the push on Durga was a mistake and not a scum ploy.

damo666 wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:51 pm

Why are town committing suicide?

It's ridiculous honestly. If nobody (except for Fox) flips in the last 2 hours, than perhaps it was Town v. Town - just like et vs Espresso.

Fine. Whatever. I know I'm town.

##VOTE TEACON

Durga wrote: ↑

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:52 pm

i would really like teacon to die.

##vote teacon
I think they're both mafia at this point so I'll return the favor and sheep you

the only issue with teacon is damo is my scum read and he's voting teacon

copypasta wall of reads for EodD4


scumteam, in descending order of scumminess:
Confirmed scum:
xorxes - Confirmed scum. I'm listing dead scum because making sense of the team means looking at the game over time, not just in the present tense. Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat, etc. I suspect that xorx actually does have a lot of work IRL, but that he was pretty active in their QT trying to direct traffic d1 and d2. Having someone as intelligent as xorx directing traffic or spotting potential slips would have been a real advantage.

balki - Confirmed scum. He's key to undesrtanding what else is going on here.
Balki was marked for death when on d3 rdriv reported having seen him. Either we lynched Balki for going out, or Balk claimed BA. Balki claimed BA for two reasons: individually, he'd get a chance to live a bit longer... maybe his team would be able to rb the real BA. For his wincon, Balki's play makes a lot of sense: fish for PR by asking for multiple claims (blaki guessed well about neph, for example), and try to set up mislynches for d4 and d5. With those individual and team-wincon goals in mind, that's exactly what he did. Saving xorx wasn't really an option, because a) usually xorx dies d3-d4 anyway (sorry xorx, it's cos you're good), and b) anyone caught trying to save xorxes would look really suspect. So what did Balki try to do? He set up the conditions for mislynches. He knew he was going to die to the real BA, so he set up his d3 to make other people look bad once he and xorxes had flipped. He did this by trying to make alternate wagons, but deliberately avoiding teacon or foxcastle. Teacon was a higher wagon than fox at this point, so teacon is more likely the setup. Information from d4 may adjust your impressions here. Balki's turn was very successful, I might add.


likely scum, based on behavior:

squiggs - he's obviously good at the game. No question there. I wouldn't have His hemming and hawing and hedging d4 is what really started getting me thinking he's scum. His behavioral pattern early d4 are VERY consistent with balki/durga. get the judge to pick a TvT set of choices, then sit back and watch sparks fly while the TvT try to eat each other. Both he and durga were the most active in a) influencing Neph, and b) getting Neph to pick fox/teacon. I was gone d2, but I'm wondering if they did something similar in suggesting an et/EP pairing. Anyway, squiggs has generally stopped trying to solve the game d4. he knows we're TvT, and has spent a lot of time on subjects other than analyzing d3. It doesn't help that he dismisses evidence from past reads and vote counts with two confirmed scum. Really? Why would you not use the information that is now available to us?

??? - this slot not defined yet, because durga flipped out and revealed as the IC. more on the way.

contingent scum:
et - ND's case has some merit. I actually scumread ET most because I think ND is the BA. et has been engaging a bit, and while he's gone in with some back and forth, he's mostly followed other people's arguments. Apart from thinking ND is the BA, the biggest reason et is scum is because: his reading comprehension FAR outstrips his contributions. I can tell he's reading and following the game pretty well - he gets what's going on. He's obviously pretty intelligent. His posting though... makes it look like he's less famliar with writing. I don't see the disparity here - why is he limited to posting so briefly if he's able to understand the MOUNTAIN of text we've posted here? He wants to play the langauge card. I feel like such a jerk saying that, but I can't help that htis is the read. @et if you're town I'm sorry please forgive the insensitivity in this, a game of lying and accusing.

one of damo/connor, leaning damo. - I'm leaning that damo is the scum of this pair, because Balki tried to "push" him d3. I'm guessing that when balki and xorx flipped scum, we were supposed to think that "damo was an innocent patsy that balki tried to set up in order to save xorx." it's not much, as damo could really just have been in the wrong place at the wrong time, but of the two, it's more likely that damo is scum.



town, in a vaguely descending order of towniness. if there's dead town I forgot, it's because I don't remember anything you've posted.
confirmed town:
rdrivera, Tom, espresso, and the other ones I can't remember - RIP guys. fwiw maybe Tom the innocent child. He could have been acting different for reactions, as he knew he could prove his innocence.

Nephthys - Confirmed judge. also, he was played by durga/squiggs int

apparently,
durga - innocent child
wtf. here's my wall for when I thought she was scum:
she hardclaimed scum, if that helps. But really, the case on her is finding similar behavior patterns to balki. d3 she voted xorxes early and stuck on him for a long time. I get the impression that she's quite capable of bussing her teammates, so her voting xorx is NAI. I also think xorx told his team to bus him. the bigger thing is that she spent all d3 voting for xorx but generally shading other people - fox and teacon especially. This fits with the same set of goals that scum-balki aimed for d3: fish for PR, shade people to set up mislynch candidates. I don't like how she says scum aren't PR hunting (remember that?) - when clearly they were PR hunting the whole game. See exhibit A: {all the dead PR.} lastly, she hardclaimed scum. Now, I'lll grant you that we're probably very different people on different wavelengths and we'd likely dislike each other in real life and all that (see: abuse against people for their outside-of-game poltical views), but the in-game behavior pattern here seems indicative of manipulative scum psych.

looks like I was dead wrong. revealing when she did was clearly a bad play. not sure what else to say rn, because I want to finish these before the day ends.



likely town:
foxcastle - probably town. If he's not town, he's done such a good job looking town that he totally played me. gg either way, I guess?

chippe - I think he's been trying to draw an NK from day 1. All that kerfuffle about proving he was a VT? Maybe he's the IC and was trying to soft-claim. I don't know. For a while I thought he was judge and trying to lynch neph because he "knew 100% Neph was lying" ...but that's clearly not the case.


townread by POE:
flav - he played like this last game when he was town. it's "off balance" in that he strikes out and pushes his scumreads hard. he spends a lot more time trying ot persuade than he spends trying to push and gather information. as far as I can tell, it's NAI. I do think he's playing a much better game than the last one, and I acutally hope he sticks around to play more. congrats on the graduation.

percy - idfk. null. I'm glad he likes my humor. :) iirc, he's in australia or something so he's rarely online at the same time I am. if he's scum, he's so darn affable I still don't have anything to catch him on. I'm looking forward to seeing him as scum, but I don't think it's this game.


town by POE, but I'd scumread if I could:
ND - he's playing differently than other games I've seen. It's a meta thing, sure. But also: he's playing conservatively in general. pick one read, push it, melt into the shadows. If I didn't think he was the BA, I'd put him as scum with durga (they're... not fighting), put et as town, and make flav the BA.

the other of damo/conor - for reasons listed in the scumteam reads

peterlund/moscow - these guys are almost scumreads because they've done so little. moscow started with a really weird first message to me. It was good towny advice, but didn't make a ton of sense. moscow lurking is NAI because he does this all the time. peter lurking is NAI while he catches up, but I don't know what that indicates later on. His posture doesn't really look solvy at all, so he'd be a slight scumread if my scumteam wasn't already full.



blind assasin candidates, in descending order of likliness:
ND - has a strong strong case on et which is built on basically nothing. I suspect he has a scan on et, but can't really say why. He's playing more conservatively than he usually does (as if ND could ever be more conservative?! lol), which imo is either a scumtell or a 3rd-party-tell. He's taking less chances, and tunnelling a LOT more. His actions make way more sense if he has a positive scan on et, but had to kill blaki n3.

flav - if flav is the BA, then fox is scum. flav's push on fox looks fairly similar to ND's push on et. he's CERTAIN that fox is scum? how? Maybe he crumbed somethign about "being up all night" getting this case. I dunno. Flav acted like this last game so his behavior is NAI, whereas ND is really out of character - ND usually makes more waves.

Note that I asked a question of a group of people (including ND/flav) about whether I should post my guesses about the BA. I don't know what to make of their answers (too much chance for wifom), but both ND and flav weighed in on the question.


lynch orders are tough to predict at this point, because there are contingencies I can't predict for at night. here's my best guess with little time to go.

{one of damo/connor} >
{the other of damo/conner if we guessed wrong and the BA didn't take care of it} >
squiggs >
{ND or flav whomever you think is more likely to be BA} >
{et if ND was BA, fox if flav was BA} >

..idk if we'll live that long, but after that you're on your own.

well those are pretty much the worst reads i've ever encountered