Sealion from Germany's Perspective: 1901
Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:15 am
A recent game got me to thinking about how Germany has some great negotiating tools at his disposal in 1901. Specifically, Sweden gives him leverage over Russia and an army and Ruhr gives him leverage with France over Belgium.
So, combine those two bargaining chips and you have the tools to get France and Russia to join you in a quick hit on England, aka a Sealion.
In pre-Spring negotiations, Germany should indicate to Russia that he would like to see A Mos-StP and in exchange for that, Germany will let Russia into Sweden in the Fall. (Also, a Russian opening to the North means Russia is putting less pressure on Austria, and statistically Germany does well when Austria does well.)
Next, Germany should talk to France and prime him to take an aggressive line against England. The real challenge here is getting France to move F Bre-ENG, which is absolutely essential in my opinion, especially if France is skittish and prefers to stick to Iberia in 1901. Germany should promise Belgium as an additional incentive, as well as London at some point down the road.
Finally, in talks with England, Germany should (truthfully) mention that Russia is planning a Northern opening and warn England that Norway may need to be taken by force, while mentioning nothing about France. The thought of no builds in 1901 is usually enough to motivate England to push the fleets to NTH and NWG and ensure that France gets into ENG.
If all goes according to plan, the moves we should see are:
France: F Bre-ENG, A Par-Pic, A Mar-Spa;
Germany: F Kie-Den, A Ber-Kie, A Mun-Ruh;
Russia: F StP-BOT, A Mos-Stp;
England, F Lon-NTH, F Edi-NWG, A Lpl-Yor.
At this point England should be panicking and see R/F as enemies. Since G accurately warned England about R's northern opening, E will now be more likely to trust him. This leaves G in a great spot for Fall 1901 as R/F as he can go one of two ways based on the diplomatic winds:
1) Continue with the Sealion and cruelly play F Den-NTH, cutting E's support to Norway and leaving him with no builds, while letting R have Sweden and F have Belgium;
2) let E into Norway and in general let R/F do the hard work on the Sealion while G sees the builds for Winter 1901, not burning his bridges with anyone. By Spring 1902, G can side with E and turn against F, with R left stuck in the north unable to secure the promised land in Norway and unable to exert maximum pressure on Austria, as he often does in a normal Southern opening. Germany enters 1902 with a strategically comfortable position: no more than one foe (F), two players likely to be sympathetic to him (E/R), and an Austria strong enough to act as a buffer from the south (unless there is a rare I/T alliance).
Thoughts? :)
So, combine those two bargaining chips and you have the tools to get France and Russia to join you in a quick hit on England, aka a Sealion.
In pre-Spring negotiations, Germany should indicate to Russia that he would like to see A Mos-StP and in exchange for that, Germany will let Russia into Sweden in the Fall. (Also, a Russian opening to the North means Russia is putting less pressure on Austria, and statistically Germany does well when Austria does well.)
Next, Germany should talk to France and prime him to take an aggressive line against England. The real challenge here is getting France to move F Bre-ENG, which is absolutely essential in my opinion, especially if France is skittish and prefers to stick to Iberia in 1901. Germany should promise Belgium as an additional incentive, as well as London at some point down the road.
Finally, in talks with England, Germany should (truthfully) mention that Russia is planning a Northern opening and warn England that Norway may need to be taken by force, while mentioning nothing about France. The thought of no builds in 1901 is usually enough to motivate England to push the fleets to NTH and NWG and ensure that France gets into ENG.
If all goes according to plan, the moves we should see are:
France: F Bre-ENG, A Par-Pic, A Mar-Spa;
Germany: F Kie-Den, A Ber-Kie, A Mun-Ruh;
Russia: F StP-BOT, A Mos-Stp;
England, F Lon-NTH, F Edi-NWG, A Lpl-Yor.
At this point England should be panicking and see R/F as enemies. Since G accurately warned England about R's northern opening, E will now be more likely to trust him. This leaves G in a great spot for Fall 1901 as R/F as he can go one of two ways based on the diplomatic winds:
1) Continue with the Sealion and cruelly play F Den-NTH, cutting E's support to Norway and leaving him with no builds, while letting R have Sweden and F have Belgium;
2) let E into Norway and in general let R/F do the hard work on the Sealion while G sees the builds for Winter 1901, not burning his bridges with anyone. By Spring 1902, G can side with E and turn against F, with R left stuck in the north unable to secure the promised land in Norway and unable to exert maximum pressure on Austria, as he often does in a normal Southern opening. Germany enters 1902 with a strategically comfortable position: no more than one foe (F), two players likely to be sympathetic to him (E/R), and an Austria strong enough to act as a buffer from the south (unless there is a rare I/T alliance).
Thoughts? :)