[Poll] Balkan Gambit
Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:42 am
If you are playing Austria and doing a Balkan Gambit, what orders do you give to Army Vienna?
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Indeed, if Italy takes Trieste in Spring you are 100% sure of losing a home center. But most Italians attack Tyrolia rather than Trieste. Tough one.fourofswords wrote: ↑Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:33 amCover Trieste. This creates vulnerability to Russia. Before the game, be friendly to everyone, then see how their moves on turn one(always advisable). Second choice, cover Galicia, which creates vulnerability to Italy. But, losing Venice on turn one is worse than losing Galicia.
The advantage of bouncing is that you have both protected Galicia and is in a superior position to cover your back from Italy. If A VIE-GAL succeeds how are you going to defend Trieste without losing power over Greece? Yet A GAL gives you more options about Rumania...Condescension wrote: ↑Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:18 amMove it to Gal, every time for sure.
I am not sure if you should arrange a bounce with Russia or if you would prefer to take Gal. I'm inclined to say arranging a bounce is usually for the best but I don't really have a good argument for why.
You're a better player than me so I'm curious about your thoughts on this. Under what circumstances should I, as Italy, move to Trieste in 1901S (except as the first move in the Key Lepanto)?President Eden wrote: ↑Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:01 amThe other thing, as Condescension somewhat touched on, is that it's far from optimal for Italy to attack Austria in S1901 every time. I won't go as far as he did and say that a good Italian player will never attack Austria on the first turn, but there are a ton of variables that go into a first-turn attack generally, and especially so with Italy and Austria. Italy has the capacity to influence several places on the board at once, and has to sacrifice that capacity to make a strong attack on Austria that has a decent chance at getting anywhere. This gives Austria more of a window to negotiate a peaceful border with Italy in the first turn, and if that can be done then the answer is clearly VIE -> GAL.
Italy's A VEN-TRI is actually a very strong move, especially if followed by A ROM-VEN (then TYR). If it fails it's bad, indeed, but isn't it true of most moves? Russia's F BOT-SWE, when it fails, is a stupid move since F BOT-BAL is clearly superior... but how can one be sure of what will be what in 1901?Condescension wrote: ↑Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:23 pmNo good Italy will move to Trieste in S1901, but every good Russia will move to Galicia.
I think Italy might be better thought of as a land power than a naval one -- there are five landlocked Eastern centers which Italy wants if it's going to solo, and a handful of coastal centers (Trieste, Romania, Sevastopol, Ankara) that demand army attention more than fleet attention. Contrast with someone like France, who has just one landlocked center in its usual 18 to solo and which needs predominantly fleets to conquer every center in its list.Condescension wrote: ↑Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:33 pmYou're a better player than me so I'm curious about your thoughts on this. Under what circumstances should I, as Italy, move to Trieste in 1901S (except as the first move in the Key Lepanto)?President Eden wrote: ↑Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:01 amThe other thing, as Condescension somewhat touched on, is that it's far from optimal for Italy to attack Austria in S1901 every time. I won't go as far as he did and say that a good Italian player will never attack Austria on the first turn, but there are a ton of variables that go into a first-turn attack generally, and especially so with Italy and Austria. Italy has the capacity to influence several places on the board at once, and has to sacrifice that capacity to make a strong attack on Austria that has a decent chance at getting anywhere. This gives Austria more of a window to negotiate a peaceful border with Italy in the first turn, and if that can be done then the answer is clearly VIE -> GAL.
Unless the Austrian seems like he'll be aggressive to you in the Spring... which imo does not make sense, why open up a land war when you're a naval power, while advantaging Turkey heavily who will come for you after he takes the Balkans?
I'm a long-time Austria specialist, and I thought like this until very recently. You may know Peter Yeargin from the WDC2016 videos - he played Austria there, and *spoiler* didn't win, but he did make the top board on the back of (IIRC) a 15-center Austrian board top, and he was confident enough about it to pick Austria early. Peter and I had a long talk about why he doesn't like opening to Galicia. Some of this may be specific to him and his reputation (which helps me too, and maybe isn't relevant to anonymous games) but his theory is as follows:GarlMargs wrote: ↑Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:28 pmAnything besides Vie to Gal seems like suicide to me.
Going to Trieste might just be the dumbest though. If you don't trust Italy not to walk in to Venice, you have no business moving to Albania in the first place. At least the others have something unorthodox going for them (ex: a chance for three builds, an attack on Munich, etc). They're all inferior to the move to Gal IMO, but I can at least understand why they are used.
This is an awesome point.dancing queen wrote: ↑Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:57 am3) Giving Russia the tactical flexibility to do something else with Army Warsaw is _almost always_ good for you - they can open North! They can focus on Turkey! They can harass Germany!
You raised some good points. I suppose it really comes down to a difference of philosophy on how to deal with the "main goal is to stay alive" bit. I'm not keen on the Balkan Gambit in general. It seems far too reckless most of the time and I generally won't try it unless Italy and I hit it off famously. In my experience, a good relationship with Italy usually implies a central powers alliance against Turkey and Russia, in which case the move to Galicia makes the most sense.dancing queen wrote: ↑Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:57 am
I could go on, but I've certainly added this move to my repertoire. Prez talks about the metagame where you have to bounce Galicia and Italy won't run in on you, and its very real. But thinking out of the box is what can break a game wide open, and as Austria, you don't want to be the one who it gets broken on.