[Poll] Balkan Gambit

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Enriador
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[Poll] Balkan Gambit

#1 Post by Enriador » Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:42 am

If you are playing Austria and doing a Balkan Gambit, what orders do you give to Army Vienna?

https://strawpoll.com/redwyz6b

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Re: [Poll] Balkan Gambit

#2 Post by fourofswords » Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:33 am

Cover Trieste. This creates vulnerability to Russia. Before the game, be friendly to everyone, then see how their moves on turn one(always advisable). Second choice, cover Galicia, which creates vulnerability to Italy. But, losing Venice on turn one is worse than losing Galicia.
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Re: [Poll] Balkan Gambit

#3 Post by Durga » Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:40 am

If it's gunboat, move it to gal

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Re: [Poll] Balkan Gambit

#4 Post by Claesar » Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:51 am

My philosophy is that if Italy attacks you, you lose the game. And you take them down with you. So might as well cover Gal.

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Re: [Poll] Balkan Gambit

#5 Post by Condescension » Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:18 am

Move it to Gal, every time for sure.

I am not sure if you should arrange a bounce with Russia or if you would prefer to take Gal. I'm inclined to say arranging a bounce is usually for the best but I don't really have a good argument for why.

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Re: [Poll] Balkan Gambit

#6 Post by Enriador » Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:09 pm

fourofswords wrote:
Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:33 am
Cover Trieste. This creates vulnerability to Russia. Before the game, be friendly to everyone, then see how their moves on turn one(always advisable). Second choice, cover Galicia, which creates vulnerability to Italy. But, losing Venice on turn one is worse than losing Galicia.
Indeed, if Italy takes Trieste in Spring you are 100% sure of losing a home center. But most Italians attack Tyrolia rather than Trieste. Tough one.

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Re: [Poll] Balkan Gambit

#7 Post by Enriador » Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:11 pm

Condescension wrote:
Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:18 am
Move it to Gal, every time for sure.

I am not sure if you should arrange a bounce with Russia or if you would prefer to take Gal. I'm inclined to say arranging a bounce is usually for the best but I don't really have a good argument for why.
The advantage of bouncing is that you have both protected Galicia and is in a superior position to cover your back from Italy. If A VIE-GAL succeeds how are you going to defend Trieste without losing power over Greece? Yet A GAL gives you more options about Rumania...

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Re: [Poll] Balkan Gambit

#8 Post by Condescension » Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:23 pm

No good Italy will move to Trieste in S1901, but every good Russia will move to Galicia.

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Re: [Poll] Balkan Gambit

#9 Post by President Eden » Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:01 am

I think Galicia is as close to a "correct" answer to this question as there can be in this game.

Austria has two objectives in 1901:
+ Secure Greece and Serbia
+ Secure its home centers from Italian and Russian aggression
You won't necessarily be able to do all these things in every game, but you should set out with this as the plan for 1901 and adjust accordingly.
Vienna can secure against Russia by itself, by moving to Galicia. Vienna cannot guarantee a block against a hostile Italy since Italy has Tyrolia and Trieste as viable options.
Further, in press games, negotiating the bounce so that you don't accidentally end up in Galicia and unable to defend against a hostile Italy is easy doing. Russia can't stop you from submitting the order VIE -> GAL, and if you explicitly state that you want to bounce and do not want to end up in Galicia, then Russia will be very likely to bounce and avoid annoying you while giving you premium positioning against him (especially if an Italian attack doesn't materialize and the Galician unit gets essentially a "free play" on positioning against Russia).
In gunboat, you can be damn near assured of Russian ordering WAR -> GAL. It's too important to prevent anyone from entering Galicia. Damage potential on either side is too high.

The other thing, as Condescension somewhat touched on, is that it's far from optimal for Italy to attack Austria in S1901 every time. I won't go as far as he did and say that a good Italian player will never attack Austria on the first turn, but there are a ton of variables that go into a first-turn attack generally, and especially so with Italy and Austria. Italy has the capacity to influence several places on the board at once, and has to sacrifice that capacity to make a strong attack on Austria that has a decent chance at getting anywhere. This gives Austria more of a window to negotiate a peaceful border with Italy in the first turn, and if that can be done then the answer is clearly VIE -> GAL.
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Re: [Poll] Balkan Gambit

#10 Post by Condescension » Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:33 pm

President Eden wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:01 am
The other thing, as Condescension somewhat touched on, is that it's far from optimal for Italy to attack Austria in S1901 every time. I won't go as far as he did and say that a good Italian player will never attack Austria on the first turn, but there are a ton of variables that go into a first-turn attack generally, and especially so with Italy and Austria. Italy has the capacity to influence several places on the board at once, and has to sacrifice that capacity to make a strong attack on Austria that has a decent chance at getting anywhere. This gives Austria more of a window to negotiate a peaceful border with Italy in the first turn, and if that can be done then the answer is clearly VIE -> GAL.
You're a better player than me so I'm curious about your thoughts on this. Under what circumstances should I, as Italy, move to Trieste in 1901S (except as the first move in the Key Lepanto)?

Unless the Austrian seems like he'll be aggressive to you in the Spring... which imo does not make sense, why open up a land war when you're a naval power, while advantaging Turkey heavily who will come for you after he takes the Balkans?

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Re: [Poll] Balkan Gambit

#11 Post by Enriador » Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:58 pm

Condescension wrote:
Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:23 pm
No good Italy will move to Trieste in S1901, but every good Russia will move to Galicia.
Italy's A VEN-TRI is actually a very strong move, especially if followed by A ROM-VEN (then TYR). If it fails it's bad, indeed, but isn't it true of most moves? Russia's F BOT-SWE, when it fails, is a stupid move since F BOT-BAL is clearly superior... but how can one be sure of what will be what in 1901?

If Italy has an army in Trieste in Fall 1901, they can be 99% sure of taking an Austrian home center and getting an excellent 5-center start. Building A VEN (while the initial A ROM sits in TYR) locks down your position and enables further conquests with or without Russian/Turkish cooperation.

Toby Harris and Andrew Goff have far more to say about why A VEN-TRI is so good (http://uk.diplom.org/pouch//Zine/F2016M ... taly2.html).

I agree A VEN-TRI is a shoot in the dark, especially since you don't know anything about the rest of the board... if it does work out however it means instant profit for Italy. When it does not (e.g. due to a Juggernaut or a bounce), you can always suggest the Key Lepanto as a last resort. :P

Also, not "every good Russia will move to Galicia". A WAR-GAL is the right move most of the time, but if there are 1) more pressing issues elsewhere and 2) a competent Austria, there is a case to be made for demilitarizing GAL and using A WAR-UKR/LVN/SIL. Austria has many fronts to cover and Italy to worry about, so freeing up Army Vienna can be pretty sweet for them.

And really, how many times did you ever see A GAL-WAR? As Russia, an army stuck in Warsaw by Fall wastes a precious amount of tempi and makes you wonder if better diplomacy wouldn't have gotten you elsewhere.

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Re: [Poll] Balkan Gambit

#12 Post by President Eden » Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:41 am

Condescension wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:33 pm
President Eden wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:01 am
The other thing, as Condescension somewhat touched on, is that it's far from optimal for Italy to attack Austria in S1901 every time. I won't go as far as he did and say that a good Italian player will never attack Austria on the first turn, but there are a ton of variables that go into a first-turn attack generally, and especially so with Italy and Austria. Italy has the capacity to influence several places on the board at once, and has to sacrifice that capacity to make a strong attack on Austria that has a decent chance at getting anywhere. This gives Austria more of a window to negotiate a peaceful border with Italy in the first turn, and if that can be done then the answer is clearly VIE -> GAL.
You're a better player than me so I'm curious about your thoughts on this. Under what circumstances should I, as Italy, move to Trieste in 1901S (except as the first move in the Key Lepanto)?

Unless the Austrian seems like he'll be aggressive to you in the Spring... which imo does not make sense, why open up a land war when you're a naval power, while advantaging Turkey heavily who will come for you after he takes the Balkans?
I think Italy might be better thought of as a land power than a naval one -- there are five landlocked Eastern centers which Italy wants if it's going to solo, and a handful of coastal centers (Trieste, Romania, Sevastopol, Ankara) that demand army attention more than fleet attention. Contrast with someone like France, who has just one landlocked center in its usual 18 to solo and which needs predominantly fleets to conquer every center in its list.
This isn't terribly relevant for the question but a useful thought exercise when considering Italy generally, I think. Italy has a careful balance to walk, because it does clearly need a strong navy to win -- it will usually end up in a major battle in the Western Mediterranean against France or the owner of France's Mediterranean provinces, and Turkey will usually demand significant naval attention. But armies are still structurally more important to Italy's solo route.

There are a couple of things I would be looking for before I could feel comfortable committing to VEN -> TRI.
(1) France and England are in conflict. France needs to be distracted and ideally in a way which draws her navy north. Fortunately this isn't hard to achieve and requires little or no work from you.
If you have the clout, I would try to secure an E/G alliance, as this does the twofold job of tying up France and checking Russia -- Russia's going to be less likely to try to seize your gains from Austria if they have a bigger problem on their northern front. This can backfire a bit in the long run because it incentivizes Western countries to take key provinces on the stalemate line, but the alternative is usually a strong France, which is probably worse for you overall.
(2a) A strong Russian ally who is committed to splitting Turkey with you next. Part of the major benefit of moving to Trieste right away is that if it works, you're virtually guaranteed to take an Austrian home center in 1901. You should be looking to make your gains in the Balkan area more than in Austria's home centers, though, in order to keep Turkey bottled up and make Turkey the more tempting second target for Russia.
--OR--
(2b) A Turkish player who is committed to moving to Armenia on the first turn. This will spark an R/T war which will allow you to focus all your attention on the simple task of killing Austria as efficiently as possible, without political concerns like making sure you take Serbia over Vienna to make things easier on Russia and harder on Turkey, etc. Even if Turkey, in this situation, would like Austria to stay viable in order to enable the Turkish attack on Russia to succeed, Turkey is unlikely to want to go out of its way to help Austria repel you. Frankly, once Turkey gets Romania, Austria has little to offer Turkey in terms of assistance, anyway. Turkey will also be more inclined to build F Con/Ank instead of F Smy in W1901 in this case, which delays any concerns about Turkish naval presence for at least a year relative to the situations where I/R/T collaborate to kill Austria.
(3) A weak Austrian player. Pretty obvious, but it bears emphasizing. If I think Austria is a good player who can get the ear of one or more neighbors and keep them from pressuring Austria's eastern front, then I'm not interested in plunging in solo. Austria can put up a reasonably good defense against a solo Italian attack, if the Austrian player understands what's important and how to manage considerations like forward retreats competently.
On this note, very obvious but also worth emphasizing: if I have even the slightest feeling that Austria is moving to Trieste in S1901, I'm out. The key to this opening is capitalizing on a metagame where it's anticipated that Austria and Russia will bounce Galicia and that Italy is too scared of Turkey to eliminate the Austrian buffer. The element of surprise is critical, and if I think that's been compromised in any way, Italy is much too flexible as a power for me to throw that flexibility away on a play that I think might backfire spectacularly.

All of these considerations, in total, make me think that the attack is usually not worthwhile. But if you were wondering what conditions would make it worthwhile, there ya go.
+ Weak Austrian player
+ Western alliances not favorable to France
+ Either a Russian player eager to work with me (and not enthused with Turkey) or a Turkish player eager to start a fight with Russia straight out of the gate



Separate discussion but I also think if you're going to attack Austria in S01, this is the only reasonable way to do it. I know the Tyrolean opening is more popular, but I also think it's just bad. The only way that the Tyrolean opening is better is if you're reasonably sure Trieste won't be open, but in this metagame, if you have reason to think Trieste won't be open, then you're playing against a particularly cautious Austrian player, against whom either attack is likely to fail. The A01 attack is too telegraphed, and any continuation which doesn't involve Austria losing a center in 1901 requires outside intervention from Russia or Turkey to break the stalemate, which usually means Russia or Turkey gets the gains and not you.
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Re: [Poll] Balkan Gambit

#13 Post by swordsman3003 » Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:12 pm

President Eden, reading your posts is like reading stuff I wrote myself. I couldn't agree more. I wish I could give you more +1s.

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Re: [Poll] Balkan Gambit

#14 Post by GarlMargs » Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:28 pm

Anything besides Vie to Gal seems like suicide to me.

Going to Trieste might just be the dumbest though. If you don't trust Italy not to walk in to Venice, you have no business moving to Albania in the first place. At least the others have something unorthodox going for them (ex: a chance for three builds, an attack on Munich, etc). They're all inferior to the move to Gal IMO, but I can at least understand why they are used.

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Re: [Poll] Balkan Gambit

#15 Post by dancing queen » Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:57 am

GarlMargs wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:28 pm
Anything besides Vie to Gal seems like suicide to me.

Going to Trieste might just be the dumbest though. If you don't trust Italy not to walk in to Venice, you have no business moving to Albania in the first place. At least the others have something unorthodox going for them (ex: a chance for three builds, an attack on Munich, etc). They're all inferior to the move to Gal IMO, but I can at least understand why they are used.
I'm a long-time Austria specialist, and I thought like this until very recently. You may know Peter Yeargin from the WDC2016 videos - he played Austria there, and *spoiler* didn't win, but he did make the top board on the back of (IIRC) a 15-center Austrian board top, and he was confident enough about it to pick Austria early. Peter and I had a long talk about why he doesn't like opening to Galicia. Some of this may be specific to him and his reputation (which helps me too, and maybe isn't relevant to anonymous games) but his theory is as follows:

1) The main thing to do as Austria is not die.
2) The fastest way to die as Austria is to let Italy run in on you.
3) Giving Russia the tactical flexibility to do something else with Army Warsaw is _almost always_ good for you - they can open North! They can focus on Turkey! They can harass Germany!
3b) When Russia goes to Galicia Anyway, _at least you know_.

I could go on, but I've certainly added this move to my repertoire. Prez talks about the metagame where you have to bounce Galicia and Italy won't run in on you, and its very real. But thinking out of the box is what can break a game wide open, and as Austria, you don't want to be the one who it gets broken on.
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Re: [Poll] Balkan Gambit

#16 Post by ziran » Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:31 am

coincidentally, i rewatched that video recently. another thing that strikes me (and you explicitly point this out) is the way in which peter (as austria) tells andrew (as russia), that vienna always goes to trieste. he says it in such a way that you immediately know that it's true. he negotiates a DMZ in galicia and warsaw holds, and vienna ends up bouncing venice out of trieste. it is unfortunate that peter's negotiations with chris (as italy) are unavailable for that phase.

the fact that warsaw holds is particularly impressive since i consider that a pretty weak move. ya'll may disagree though.

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Re: [Poll] Balkan Gambit

#17 Post by President Eden » Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:34 am

dancing queen wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:57 am
3) Giving Russia the tactical flexibility to do something else with Army Warsaw is _almost always_ good for you - they can open North! They can focus on Turkey! They can harass Germany!
This is an awesome point.

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Re: [Poll] Balkan Gambit

#18 Post by ghug » Mon Mar 19, 2018 6:22 pm

I tend to tell Russia up front that I'm happy to DMZ Galicia if they are doing any of those other things. If they can't tell me what they want to do with the Warsaw army, it's a clear sign that they just want to stab for Gal, at which point it's better to just arrange the bounce and trust Italy.

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Re: [Poll] Balkan Gambit

#19 Post by Dejan0707 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:50 pm

First thing that I do is to speak with Germany and see is he interested to use his influence in Sweden to help poor old Austrian ally. If Germany is sensitive enough then Germany, Russia and me make agreement: if Russia is not in Galicia in fall he can take Sweden and Germany would let him in.

If that works and it should as all players gets some benefits, I concentrate in Italy to make sure he will not make a stab.

I think I never seen Russia moving to Galicia when I used that strategy but I had few Italian player stabing. Therefore I find Italy more problematic to handle.

It is possible to try to arrange with Germany the same thing as with Russia but unfortunatelly Germany does not have the chance to punish Italy unless he uses his army in Munich which is better used to strengthen German interests in west.

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Re: [Poll] Balkan Gambit

#20 Post by GarlMargs » Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:30 pm

dancing queen wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:57 am

I could go on, but I've certainly added this move to my repertoire. Prez talks about the metagame where you have to bounce Galicia and Italy won't run in on you, and its very real. But thinking out of the box is what can break a game wide open, and as Austria, you don't want to be the one who it gets broken on.
You raised some good points. I suppose it really comes down to a difference of philosophy on how to deal with the "main goal is to stay alive" bit. I'm not keen on the Balkan Gambit in general. It seems far too reckless most of the time and I generally won't try it unless Italy and I hit it off famously. In my experience, a good relationship with Italy usually implies a central powers alliance against Turkey and Russia, in which case the move to Galicia makes the most sense.

Thinking outside the box ain't bad though. I can see how a move to Bohemia in S01 could be interesting if Russia is keen on taking out Germany and Italy can be bought off somehow.

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