A Noob's 7000-word Gunboat Journal

[DipPlayer88]

I was inspired to write this journal when I saw swordsman3003's 80,000-word journal on his gunboat game. While that laid out an experienced player's thought process, I thought I should put my version -- as beginner's thought process playing while playing my third game of diplomacy, and my first gunboat ever.

I want to give a beginner's perspective, and for this to be pure and raw:
1. I have not yet read swordsman3003's journal (not until I am done with this game, so I can't know how an expert thinks yet).
2. This is what I wrote during the game, not retrospectively, so it captures what I am thinking in the moment. The only changes to the text are formatting and correcting spelling/grammatical errors, otherwise I will clearly mark anything that I wrote following the end-of-game with [retrospective comments: ].

I am writing this for myself because it is a good way to learn, but I also plan to make this public for all that it is worth. Thanks to webdiplomacy.net for having this site, and the players which made the game so enjoyable (no hard feelings!):
Link to the game: http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=236981

1901 spring diplomacy
27 Feb 2019
The game starts finally. I am England. What are some initial thoughts? First England is probably quite powerful, as there is a natural protection with the water barrier. There are also two fleets against France's and Germany's 1 each. What I also learnt the hard way in my first game is that controlling the English channel is key if fighting against France. My aim is to take the northern supply centers quickly and try not to declare war on France and Germany...not yet at least. Being friendly for now gives me the option to later decide to form an alliance it declare war. My biggest threat is probably France and Germany teaming up against me. I want at least one of them to be my ally.

Who do I want as allies and enemies?
Germany can't attack me immediately and may find herself fighting with Russia, Austria or France quite early on. Germany is affected by what happens in the East and probably won't want to advance on me in the first few moves. France will want to take Spain and Portugal but might worry about Germany, Italy or me attacking. An alliance with Italy, Austria or Russia might also be options, especially if I am fighting with France and/or Germany. But I am not sure how I would signal to them that I would like an alliance, nor would I know how to read their signals in these first few moves.

What are my opening options?
I know there some standard opening moves for gunboat which are optimal. But since I will only look at those after this game, I need to try to work it out myself for this game. It comes down to advancing south or advancing East. Advancing south will make France nervous. Advancing East will allow me to take the Nordics but risk France occupying the English channel. I could try to take the middle ground. Ultimately I see three moves which make sense:

Option 1 (aggressive)
Lon-Eng
Edi-Norsea
Lvp-Wal

This is probably the most aggressive towards France. It is almost a declaration of war. However, I think it puts me in a very good position if I don't bounce in the English channel. For winter 1901, I might be able to have two builds with Norway and Belgium. Or even move into Brest. Although what might also happen is that we bounce in the Eng, and my army in Wales will be a bit awkward, and I won't be able to capture two supply centers by winter 1901.

The obvious downside is France will unlikely be my ally, and I will needed to count of an alliance with Germany.

Option 2 (precaution)
Lon-Eng
Edi-Norsea
Lvp-Yor

Here it is not as aggressive towards France, but still making sure France doesn't have the Eng. Also, if there is a bounce, I can still convoy my army to capture a supply center in Norway, and by then I will be hardly threatening France. So France shouldn't be too unhappy about this move.

Option 3 (passive)
Lon-Norsea
Edi-Norwsea
Lvp-Yor

I say passive but I think this move gives me the highest chance of having a double build for Winter 1901. The biggest threat is France moving into the Eng. If that's happens I am in not a good position. If so, my winter move will probably be:
Norsea - Bel
Norwsea - Nor
Yor-Lon (to defend this supply center)
But France won't have two builds for winter if she does this.I will probably have 3-4 fleets vs. her 1-2 fleets.So I can then try to chase out France's fleet with a new fleet from Liv - Irish.

How would the others move?
France would probably move:
Par - Bur (to prevent an immediate attack from Germany)
Mar S Bur
Bre - Eng or Mid

Germany will either attack Russia or France.
Kie - Den or Hol, is very likely

Then if to attack Russia:
Mun-Sil
Ber-Pru

Or to attack France:
Ber-Kie
Mun-Bur

Also, looking at Germany, I am trying to work out Denmark and Ska. Are they coasts, sea? Can an army move between them etc? Understanding the map it's more difficult for a beginner than I initially thought.

[DipPlayer88]

Autumn, 1901, diplomacy
28 Feb 2019

My predictions on France's and Germany's movements were half right (two correct out of 3 each). Germany is aiming for 3 supply centers which I suppose makes more sense than a blitz on France or Russia (which was implied in my thinking last turn). On one hand I can't allow her to have 3 since that will leave me with one, but on the other hand England can do well with fewer units than Germany because of my position on the board making it hard for others to challenge me without a similarly sized fleet.

France's move mar-gas is a signal to Italy that she does not intend to fight, while still allowing a double build by having Spain and Portugal this round. Par-bur threatens Germany but it is also a precautionary move. But this would compel Germany to move Rur-Mun to defend the SC. Meaning I should be able to move my fleet from Eng-Bel without bouncing.

Italy's going for Tunis. She could have taken Tri but didn't since it is probably best not to make enemies in the first move. Italy needs allies since she finds it hard to expand rapidly. These moves probably signal alliance with Austria against Turkey.

Austria also relies on allies but because she is vulnerable from all sides. But unlike Italy she can expand rapidly with so many supply centers nearby.

Russia attacked Austria and if it escalates, Germany may not be too preoccupied with a fight with Russia. Not good for me if Germany comes my way instead. Russia might nice Sev-Rum next round since Turkey didn't show much aggression eg Smy-Arm would have made Russia nervous.

I am starting to regret my move but that I have found I always regret after every move, at least so far in my first two games of diplomacy.

Alliances
I shouldn't yet declare war on France. If France moves bur-mun, that would be good for me as the two will be preoccupied. But France might be worried about my fleet in Eng.

I should capture Bel to prevent Germany from having 3 SC, and perhaps a fleet in bel shouldn't be too threatening for now.

My predictions
Germany:
Ruh-mun
Kie-hol
Den H

I would prefer if Germany does the below moves instead, which is not unreasonable, but I think unlikely:
Den-swe
Kie-den
Ruh-hol (requires too much trust in France.)

France:
Bur-mun
Gas-spa
Mid-por

Russia:
Stp-nor
Bot-swe


My options
Dilemma 1
Eng-bre?
Or
Eng-bel?

I think eng-bre is a bit cheeky, but it does prevent France from having 2 builds. Works if I want to kill France. But now I want France to attack Germany. Since Germany is moving west and Russia too. Eng-bel is probably the safer option.

Dilemma 2
F norsea C yor-nor?
Or
Norsea-nor?

Probably irrelevant because I will bounce off Norway with russia. But F norsea C yor-nor is better because (if successful) this allows me to defend swe in the next round against potentially Russia's units in stp and bot.

Main threats
I think I will bounce with Russia in Norway. After the bounce, Russia will probably get Norway unless I receive help from Germany. Or Russia supports me against Germany.

Hopefully I won't also bounce in bel otherwise I get no builds this autumn. They will not be good

Movements on the board
Again slightly confused about what movements on the board are possible. Eg can a fleet in Sweden move to Norway? Two ways to work this out: 1) use a sandbox eg on playdip or backstbbr, 2) use a search engine and search "webdiplomacy fleet at Sweden move to Norway". Google/Bing/Yahoo will find webdip order histories of previous games. If they exist means it is possible

[DipPlayer88]

Autumn, 1901, Builds
1 March 2019

This time, my predictions were 2/3 correct for France and Germany and correct for Russia's northerly units. But for those I got wrong, I am actually happier than if my predictions were correct. France's gus-bre and Germany's den-swe (which bounced), are good for me. It means France won't be having a service fleet near me anytime soon and Germany's bounce prevented Russia from having Sweden, which means I have a good chance of taking Norway in autumn 1902.

I also need to start thinking about my longer term strategy. I figured out in my second game that the goal of diplomacy is not necessarily controlling 18 supply centers. Most often you end in a draw. So the scoring matters because in draw sized scoring you are incentivized to be more cooperative while in sum of squares you are inclined to be more competitive.

If I were to try to solo win, the supply centers I will take will be in a triangle with the diagonal running from the top right to bottom left of the map. To win in a draw then means I will probably take about half of this triangle - ie I need to capture either the northern supply centers or conquer France. It is probably quite hard for me to advance into Germany, but I might have to defend against her. Also as England I could do well with mostly fleets and minimal armies, so basically controlling the seas and coastal supply centers.

So I need to decide quite soon: do I want to attack France or fight for the northern territories against Russia and Germany?
- if I attack France I need to make sure Germany isn't helping her or attacking me
- if I advance north then I need to make sure France is my ally

Which would I prefer given the current position of the board?

Predictions
France:
Build army in Marseilles

Germany
Build army in Munich
Build army in Berlin

Austria
Build army in bud and vie (no other option)

Italy
Build fleet in nap

Turkey
Build fleet in smy

I think we are also going to have a strong Austria in this game. Russia, Turkey and Austria will each have two units able to capture Rumania next turn. Interesting to see who allies with whom.


Threats
Germany builds fleet in Kiel, because that puts pressure on me.
I can't hold on to Belgium without alliance with either France or Germany

[DipPlayer88]

Spring, 1902, Diplomacy

An NMR from France. Not good and frankly quite annoying. I am not sure how the NMR mechanics work on webdiplomacy. If there are two missed rounds, I know the country will go into civil disorder, but if a new player takes over do they make the moves? Or will the country miss two rounds?

My predictions were completely correct other than the fact that France NMRed.

Some thoughts:
-My supply center at Belgium is under threat from Germany.
-I will get Norway unless Germany and Russia coordinates against me.
-Germany will attack Burgundy, and France will be on defensive

If I had known France NMR I would attack France and get the supply centers but obviously that is not something I would have known. One way to look at it is that NMRs are part of the game of Diplomacy. It is one of the unknowns that you sometimes have to account for. The fact that webdiplomacy doesn't allow too many rounds of NMRs means it won't completely spoil the game.

Predictions
Germany
Den-swe
Ruh-bur
Mun S ruh-bur
Hol S bel Hold
Ber-sil

Russia
Stp-fin
Bot-swe
Gal-rum
Sev S gal-rum

France
Bre-par
Bur-mun
Por-mid

Strategy
My strategy should be to take Norway in autumn 1902, because I will be able to unless Germany supports Russia. Russia is also going to be in a weak position soon so I should be able to control the north. (Unless he plays better moves than my predictions, and Germany comes after me instead.)

Germany is probably going to attack France quite a bit and eventually win. I will have to make sure I get my fair share of supply centers



Spring, 1902, Retreats
My movement predictions were completely wrong this time. But good that France is back from his holiday.

Unlike what I thought, Germany isn't interested in France, and instead is going all out to kill Russia. Russia's move bot-bal isn't at all shabby at it attacks 3 of Germany's supply centers (and if you include Sweden, 4 supply centers). But Russia is under pressure on all fronts. She tried to form an alliance with Austria with gal S bud-rum. Austria attacked Russia and I don't see why that would change. Russia and Turkey may form an alliance next round of of necessity, to counter the Austria-Italy alliance.

France is still trying to move into Munich. I need to make sure France doesn't build a fleet in Brest. Not sure what is the best way to stop that.

Predictions
Russia
Retreat Gal-war

Why
Gal-boh is too aggressive and doesn't guarantee capturing any supply centers next turn
Gal-rum doesn't achieve much either since it is spring. And basically losing Warsaw and Moscow cuts Russia in half and is a tough situation for her.

[DipPlayer88]

Autumn, 1902, Diplomacy

My goal this turn is to make sure I get Norway. That's about it for this round. My moves
Yor-nor
Norsea C yor-nor
Norwsea S yor-nor
Bel hold

Strategy
Continue taking the North, while making sure France can't get leverage on me. Need to somehow prevent a build in Brest, but I am not sure how I would do this.

Moving my fleet out into the English channel in spring 1903 is an option but it puts Belgium at risk too

Threats
Germany won't attack my fleet at Belgium this round since he is preoccupied with Russia and needs to defend many supply centers. He doesn't know where the fleet in the Baltic sea would move. He also needs to defend Munich against France.

France would be a threat if he builds a fleet at Brest in the coming autumn builds season. The problem for France is that my fleet at Belgium makes it hard for him to attack Germany. He might try:
Bur-ruh
Par-bur

If that works, then great, France and Germany will be fighting. If not he might turn towards either me or Italy.


Autumn, 1902, Builds

France indeed made the move I mentioned previously (bur-ruh par-bur). It is a good move because even if Germany saw this threat, she should still move ruh-mun regardless. Germany is now under pressure, and Germany is also my ally so it is not great.

On the plus side, Germany correctly anticipated the move of Russia's fleet in the Baltic sea.

Austria is getting more powerful and Russia is still trying to form an alliance. Turkey is simply screwed unless she can fix her diplomatic situation, and I think it has to be an alliance with Russia, but Russia seems more keen to work with Austria.

Predictions and what to look out for - alliances

1. I think Turkey will be wiped out.

2. I need to watch the whether Russia and Austria will form an alliance against Germany, or will Austria / Germany form an alliance.
Scenarios
If Austria and Russia form an alliance, it will be a 3-way or 4-way alliance (Austria Russia Italy and maybe France), against Germany /England.

If Austria /Germany means it will like be a 4-way alliance including me and Italy. Austria will take over Russia and become a superpower.

3. I have to be careful if France builds a fleet in Brest this turn. France will continue attacking Germany. Italy's exposed back might be tempting, but France might also come after me.


Prediction - moves
Germany
Fleet in Berlin (Germany wants to drive out the fleet in the Baltic sea. although this is not good for me, as it increases Germany's leverage on me)

France
Fleet in Brest
Army in Paris

Austria
Army in Vienna


My moves
The best thing for me to do is to build a fleet in Liverpool. I will be able to defend against France should he build a fleet at Brest.

My following move would probably be Norwsea-bar to try to capture stp (and make Germany happy by pressuring Russia to move his fleet out of bal). And quite likely to also attack France with
Norsea - eng
Lvp-iri

I do wish that France would stop attacking Germany and move south. Then we can form a triple western alliance against the eastern alliance. I also think it is the sensible thing to do from France's perspective. If Russia, Italy and Austria form a team, I am actually in a better position than France is, to end in a 4-way draw.

[DipPlayer88]

Spring, 1903, Diplomacy

France is not coming after me at all, by building two armies...when I thought he'll build a fleet in Brest. But he's making it very easy for me to attack him.

Austria's build in Budapest suggest he is more interested in advancing east, rather than clash with Germany.

I am not sure who I should ally with. Previously I said that if Austria and Germany teams up, it would be an Austria /Germany /Italy /England team. But it is not so clear-cut. Alliances shift every round.

I think one strategy is, the bigger I am (in the short term), the better (in the long term). Quite simplistic but probably not too far from the truth. If I am big then I have more leverage in diplomatic maneuvering (although this is implicit in gunboat) and it is also more likely I will be one of the remaining powers to call a draw.

I should probably aim to capture St Petersburg in any case. But with my massive number of fleets, where do I move them? Either into Germany or into France... I wonder which the rational choice is, and how I should be thinking about it. Also feel a bit of pressure knowing that I will basically decide whether Germany and France falls. Whoever I decide to attack, I need to move fast and decisively, or it won't work.

One way to think about it is that Russia is my enemy (because we have been clashing over Norway since 1901. And since Germany is fighting Russia, she's naturally my ally (enemy of an enemy). But it doesn't work the other way. An enemy of an ally (France) isn't necessarily an enemy.

I am trying to think of the sequence of moves if I attack Germany vs France. Whichever is more efficient is the one I should go for. I shouldn't feel 'bad' for attacking someone who didn't expect me to attack them.

Anyway, decision time. I will advance on France.

And my fleet in Belgium is just sitting there.


What are the critical things to consider in Diplomacy? How important is seeing several moves ahead (l like chess or Go)? Or is it more of a "in the moment" game like poker? I am inclined to think the latter for two reasons :
1) the branching factor in Diplomacy is insane. If you have 5 units, assume conservatively that the total number of moves per unit is only 6 (hold, support, convoy, move to various adjacent provinces), that's almost 8000 possible moves to make in 1 round. And of you consider the whole board, 34 units let's say, each having 6 possible moves (in reality it is more, but some might be double counting), that's 10^26 possibilities on how the board can change in a single phase.
2) coupled with the fact that you move simultaneously (hello Game theory and Nash equilibriums), meaning it is very important to predict what others are going to.

Compare that to chess where each time you have about only 40(?) moves to choose from, and you move one at a time, so it is sensible to consider several moves ahead.

Having said that I do find myself thinking how the game might play out one or two moves ahead, although I find it impossible to actually foresee. I think it is very important though to think about the other players' moves for each round.


Spring, 1903, Retreats

Slightly nervous that Russia's fleet will retreat to Denmark. Although that leaves st Petersburg exposed.

France named to capture Munich finally, but looks like Italy has also decided to attack France. Good for me so France can't dedicate all his resources to defend against me.

Now when I think back, attacking France is definitely the right choice since by building my fleet in Liverpool, I have already signaled this.

[DipPlayer88]

Autumn, 1903, Diplomacy
8 March 2019

Prediction
Germany
Ber-kie
Hol S ber-kie
Pru-ber
Bal-ber
Sil-mun (although likely not much effect, but better than just holding)
Swe-bot (I really hope!)

France
Ruh-kie
Mun S ruh-kie
Bur-bel
Pic S bur-bel
Mid-bre

Russia
Bot S stp hold
Stp S bot hold


Threat
France attacks Bel with Pic, buh and ruh. It's not unreasonable because if her army at Munich gets dislodge she can just retreat to kie. But there isn't really much I can do to defend against that

Another is that France defend Brest with:
Mid-bre
Pic-bre
Bouncing off herself. If so my fleet at Irish sea can't move to mid, and France can build a fleet at Brest next round. To counter this i should do
Eng S mid-bre
Iri-mid
To force her fleet into Brest.

But the problem is that I leave Belgium unguarded. And I don't have the potential to occupy a new supply center this autumn. So it is a risky move with little upside.


Autumn, 1903, Builds

Omg terrible. I am not in a good position. Three things:
1. I can't believe Germany didn't help me get St Petersburg with Swe-bot to prevent Russia's fleet from defending the army in stp. He just HAD THE FLEET HOLD POSITION and do nothing! What on earth? I don't think it is deliberate either since he is fighting Russia, and helping me eg with Belgium. I think he just didn't think about it properly... I am actually quite annoyed. Lesson: don't assume that allies will do things even if it seems very obvious. You need a degree of self reliance... But I am still very annoyed.

2. Now when I think back, my moves attacking France was shitty. There was no upside. I shouldn't have assumed that France with try to defend Brest. I could have easily attacked Brest. I was being silly. Now France will build a fleet in Brest and there will be a big fight. I am not sure how France knew I was not going to move into best though... Lesson learnt: your moves must achieve something if it works. You don't know what move they will make, and there's some guesswork and "luck" there. But if things go well you should get a clear advantage, basically in the form of a new supply center.

3. Why is Italy going back towards Turkey? Sailing back and forth?

[DipPlayer88]

Spring, 1904, Diplomacy

Diplomacy is an emotional game. Started the game feeling super keen on doing very well. Now annoyed. Worried I will get killed.

Not point attacking stp anymore because Russia will just take it back next round. Russia so far has seemed keen to ally with everyone. Also signaled intention to ally with me with stp S Nor hold.

Germany is obsessed with attacking Russia, even when France has invaded his land, he wants to attack Warsaw. I probably shouldn't have chosen Germany to ally with, but no point attacking Germany now, since I will find it hard to avoid a battle with France now. A bit late to turn around I think.

I will make a somewhat risky move. But my fleet at Belgium is going to be hard to defend anyway. And it is just stuck there doing nothing anyway. If dislodged, my fleet from Denmark might retreat to Norsea then move into Denmark.

Things I am trying to work out :
If my fleet in Bel is support holding my fleet in English Channel, and if Germany army in Hol supports my fleet, does Germany 's support help? In other words:
Bel S eng hold
Hol S Bel hold
Bur-bel
Pic S bur-bel
Well my fleet in Belgium get dislodged?

What if instead:
Bel S iri-eng
Hol S Bel hold
Bur-bel
Pic S bur-bel

Will my fleet in Bel get dislodged?

Or :
Bel-eng
Hol S Bel hold
Bur-bel
Pic S bur-bel

Assuming my bel-eng bounces, will it then get dislodged from Bel?


Spring, 1904, Retreats

Actually now when I look back, I was stupid in saying that Russia can take back stp if I captured it this round. That's me misreading the map. A screw up. I wonder why it was so hard to see just now, even though it is so obvious now. I should have captured St Petersburg...I notice that missing obvious moves like that had been a common mistake in my last two games as well. I wonder why? I know I am a newbie but still, with the amount of time I spent looking at the map, this feels like something a bit too obvious to miss?

Anyway Germany saw it this time and made the move I wish he had earlier (swe-bot) but then I moved away this time... Bad coordination..

And Austria is going after either France or Italy. Probably Italy since Italy declared war by stopping to ven S tri hold, two rounds ago. At least Austria is not after Germany, since I need Germany to help me with France...

I guess one of the challenges in gunboat is that you can't easily turn back after attacking someone.

[DipPlayer88]

Autumn, 1904, Diplomacy
13 March 2019

I have a 50% chance to capture one of France supply centers in Portugal or Spain. He doesn't know which I will go for and likewise I don't know which he will defend. A roll of a dice essentially. Though, I think he will more likely want to defend Spain, since it is a worse position for him if he loses Spain. But of course he might know I am thinking this, therefore defend Portugal instead....

I think one of the important things is to make moves that are somewhat unexpected. A lot of the game of Diplomacy is predicting what other players are going to do. It follows that you want to make it hard for others (enemies) to predict your moves (and ideally make it easy for your allies to predict...). If your opponents know your every move, you are screwed. But your unexpected moves should also be good moves... So much to balance....

It is also one of the amazing things about this game. I don't agree with avalon hill's assertion that Diplomacy doesn't involve luck. It does, just not in a form of a dice roll or random card draws. Luck emerges from the fact that you make simultaneous moves, and people sometimes move randomly. And the complexity of the game theory here means that most turns don't have a single optimal move (ie known as mixed strategies in game theory) where for example you should do move A 70% of the time and move B 30% of the time. So even super AIs playing against each other will experience luck in this game. And of course being able to talk to each other introduces more variability.

Anyway, what's the most predictable move?
mid-por or Spain, for sure.

But Probably something involving
Iri-eng
Norsea S iri-eng

I might want to try something a bit different here so as not to be too predictable. As I said earlier, it is important to make unorthodox moves, as long as they are also good.

Also, I want to prevent him from occupying the English channel and catapulting lots of tanks over. Ideally if his fleet stays in Brest so he can't build a fleet there in the next round if he gets an extra supply center.

His fleet in Brest is quite likely to move to either English Channel or Mid Atlantic. These are also the two provinces I want to occupy. If I also move my fleets into these two regions, there's a good chance that at least one will succeed.



Autumn, 1904, Retreats

I captured Portugal, managed to occupy the English Channel, and kept France's fleet at Brest. I am over the moon!

A semi risky move I have to admit, as I could have ended up with everything bouncing, had France played
Bre-mid
Por S bre-mid

I do wonder why she didn't do this. Her fleet at Spain was just sitting there anyway.

Whether or not this was the correct play, I don't know. But the risk paid off this time.

Looking back another reason why targeting Portugal rather than Spain is that, France might use the fleet at Spain to support moves of other units like the potential move I pointed out above. This means it was slightly more likely for France's fleet to stay in Spain than none to Portugal.

Anyway back to move predictions. Should be much easier with retreats since there's far fewer options:
Germany
Hol disband

Italy
Ven-rom

France
Mun disband. Unless it is legal to do Mun-ruh? (is it legal given Germany tried Hol-ruh and failed? If it is illegal, then France will have to disband. Unfortunately this also means that France might build a fleet in Mar next round...

Italy and Austria is in all out war. I think Italy will get wiped out. Turkey might even survive as Austria gets distracted. Also interesting that Russia signaled antagonism to Austria too with a attack from sev - rum. If Russia comes in then it might change. Russia was in trouble early on, but amazingly managed to stay alive by having a love fest with everyone. And admittedly I have been having a love fest with Russia with my army in Norway for the last few rounds too.... But at some point Russia might attack someone, now that everyone had left her alone.


Autumn, 1904, Builds

Ok, looks like it is legal to retreat from Mun-ruh, because that is what France just did. I guess it is because Germany's Hol-ruh didn't actually bounce in ruh. It has simply failed to move because it was attacked. Thus ruh remains a legal province to retreat to.

Predictions
Germany
Army at ber (I hope! If it is fleet then it is a declarative of war against me)

Austria
Build Army at vie

Turkey
Disband fleet at syria

[DipPlayer88]

Spring, 1905, Diplomacy

I know I said Germany will be declaring war by building a fleet at Berlin. Maybe I was pushing to too far. He might simply be worried about Russia trying to attack Sweden in the last move. And my constant love fest with Russia St Petersburg is probably not making it easy for Germany's nerves. But I don't like it, and unfortunately, it means I need to be cautious too and keep a fleet at north sea.

Goal is next autumn (1905): I need to capture some supply centers. This round is a set up for that.

France might move bur-gas to try to defend his fleets. If so they will be another 50% chance of me capturing either Brest or Spain. In autumn, I will also try convoying nor-Bel, with support from English Channel. If lucky I might be able to capture two supply centers, and help Russia or Germany doesn't take advantage of my unguarded Norway.

Predictions

What France might think I will do

How to be unorthodox


[retrospective comments: I wanted to write predictions, what I think France might think I will do, and how to do some unusual moves. But I couldn't find the time before the the round had to move on. If I can recall later on what I was thinking, I might write it retrospectively here.]



Autumn, 1905, Diplomacy

Now when I think back my army at Norway should have support held Russia rather than Germany. Because Russia is more inclined to attack my army at Norway. Germany is still under a lot of pressure to try doing that.

Unfortunately France decided to defend against me full time.

Italy and turkey might ally against Austria

Russia might join the party since he seems to want Rumania.

Another roll of the dice situation for me again in capturing supply centers in France.


[Retrospective comments: sorry for the much shorter commentary and less elaboration. I got very busy with my life around this period, so I couldn't write as much]


Autumn, 1905, Retreats

France NMRed again. She seems consistent in missing moves on Fridays (in the pub drinking?). Same happened last week. A lesson learnt from last time is that, don't assume they will make certain moves to defend against your attacks, and give up trying. So you should generally aim to make moves that will have good upside, eg capturing supply centers, if they work.

My main concern now is that I am quite big and it means people may start to target me. Also I am a bit overstretched... With an undefended supply center at Norway.


Autumn, 1905, Builds

Trying to decide between building two armies or one fleet and one army. Probably need a fleet at Edinburgh so I can protect Norway. At the same time I feel I have too many fleets... Not entirely sure where France will disband his units...

I was wondering why France didn't just disband his units in the previous round but instead retreated then now disband. Now I see how that makes sense. It makes it harder for me to decide what to do because I don't know which units he will keep.

[DipPlayer88]

Spring, 1906, Diplomacy

Not much time to think about this round due to my personal schedule. I probably should not capture Holland as it might be too greedy and piss Germany off. I need allies and I am not really aiming for solo... I think aiming for solo in a draw size scoring game only makes sense if the opportunity arises quite clearly.

I have supply centers quite scattered. Not good as it is hard to defend.

Also strangely, graphically webdiplomacy is showing a fleet in Spain for France. France clearly disbanded that unit and there is no way France can have more units than supply centers this round. A bug on webdiplomacy? It's making me nervous seeing France with more units than he should be having.

Ok moderators paused and replaced Russia. Now I have more time to think about my moves.


Spring, 1906, Retreats

France missed her move again. Good for me and part of the reason why I chose to attack France too. But at the same time it is kinda like...I'd rather players be reliable and not miss rounds. I have to say it is impressive that most players in webdiplomacy actually make their moves pretty much every time. It takes a bit of commitment to do this. Yet, it is crucial. Playing Diplomacy where missed rounds are a norm would completely spoil the game.

Anyway, I am not intending to solo so I didn't take Holland. But Germany seemed to have left it for me too. But with him dislodging France's army at ruh, France will retreat to Holland... What a pain

[DipPlayer88]

Autumn, 1906, Diplomacy

I think I will make a bet that France will miss his move again. If I am right, my moves this round could completely eliminate France.

Otherwise it is not too bad a move either.

A challenge I am facing is whether Germany will take Holland. I don't want to be too greedy, but if neither Germany or me take it, it will be 'wasted'. I also have much more leverage over Germany so I don't need to worry that much if Germany somehow sees it as a threat.

Spring, 1907, Diplomacy

Should I aim for solo? I think aiming for solo just makes life hard. I should probably just give Holland to Germany.

Even if I want to aim for solo, should I do it now? I am too small and every country is still alive. I should team up with Germany and advance East.

[DipPlayer88]

Spring, 1907, Retreats

Germany is probably angry that I didn't help with Marseilles. Will do that next round. Hope he'll give me St Petersburg.


Autumn, 1908, Retreats

Italy didn't expect me to attack, it seems, even though I thought it was quite obvious. He seems very keen on attacking Austria for some reason.

I am glad I didn't attack Austria, as I learnt earlier that I should never fight two battles at once.

Also Germany is moving his fleets closer. Sure, it is a reasonable move as a precaution against me attacking him, but at the same time I need to have a contingency plan in case Germany turns against me. And part of the contingency is having Austria as an ally if that happens. That would be somewhat natural, given Germany is attacking Austria, and that I am attacking Italy, who is Austria's enemy now for sure...

Also, I haven't been putting as much thought into my moves and predicting moves and such lately. I feel that in Diplomacy, once you reach a certain size, the game becomes easier unless you plan to solo win.

[DipPlayer88]

Spring, 1909, Diplomacy

No idea what Italy is doing. He doesn't seem to care that I am attacking him.

Good that Germany built an army not fleet.

I think I am going to just stay put and not advance further. Don't really plan to solo. I don't know if it is the right thing to do, whether I am being not ambitious enough etc. But I guess for this game I will aim for a draw...


Autumn, 1909, Diplomacy

Actually I regret being passive this move. Germany is now scratching his head about what I am doing. And also, if I am looking for a 2-way draw, I need to be strong enough to assert myself against the other player, as either player will be very close to 18 supply centers.

I may forever regret the passive move I made on the last round. Time to get back in the game


[Retrospective comments: Life got really hectic here, and I found it hard to write anything for the next few phases]

[DipPlayer88]

Spring, 1911, Diplomacy

Germany built another fleet... Not good news. But it could due to my paranoia and moving my army from Paris to Picardy. That may have made Germany nervous...

But I really have zero desire to fight with Germany.


Autumn, 1911, Diplomacy

Is turkey after me or italy


Spring, 1912, Diplomacy

Maybe I was being too complacent, or not careful enough thinking that I will be OK even if turkey attacks me. But no, it is a troublesome situation. It is never easy when anyone attacks you.

I should have realized that even though Italy gave Turkey a hard time, people forgive and forget quickly in "war", especially when self interests align. I am the strongest player (maybe along with Germany, now that I lost Tunis), so turkey probably just wants to make sure I don't solo.

It is annoying that on webdiplomacy you don't see a failed support move (yellow arrow with a cross) unless you view the full, larger map. Turkey may not have realized I tried to help him take Naples.

So what should I do this round? My immediate reaction reaction was to attack Tunis immediately, but this is probably not the best move since it is spring, where capturing a supply center doesn't do anything unless you maintain it until Autumn. There are probably more optimal moves. Thinking of moving my fleet from English Channel, since I might need to to fight both Italy and turkey. But it is a bit risky because of Germany... It is annoying that Germany has his fleets facing me... It is taking a lot of resources to have many of my own units facing Germany, just to stay safe.
Also noticed that all three of them voted draw, except Germany and me.

I am getting tired, but probably isn't sensible to vote draw yet. I should get rid of at least one more player first...

[DipPlayer88]

Autumn, 1912, Builds

I really wish I don't have to fight with Turkey, and we can have a 3-way draw. But now it is looking increasingly likely that I will have to fight for solo with Germany.

Somehow I am not looking forward to it, although I am not sure why, since it kind of is the goal of the game of Diplomacy...

Spring, 1913, Diplomacy
I am thinking again about whether I can potentially solo win this. But with Austria missing moves and essentially helping Germany win, I probably can't.

I will try to form an alliance with turkey, again. I hope turkey gets the message.

Somehow I am feeling really tired with this game. Partly because it has been quite long, but also each time something uncertain happens I freak out and I just want to cash in my wins so far. But I can't until at least one more player gets defeated. It is too early and I will be wasting my position by drawing too early.

Thinking about draw size scoring...one of the advantages is that the stakes remain just as high until the end. Basically, it prevents the game from ending anti-climatically. For this game for example, I may be a major power now, but Italy (super small) still has the chance to win just as big a pot as me. It actually makes the game good....but I am tired...


Autumn, 1913, Diplomacy

It is actually very distressing that I can't communicate with the others. I want to tell turkey, "You need to defend against Germany. Now you are quite screwed... Help me with Italy and we can have a 3 way draw."

Or say to Germany, "we have been good friends let's have a two way draw..."

But it is all just quiet now. I guess that's what gunboats is about


Autumn, 1914, Diplomacy

Voted draw. The game gas dragged on for so long and I can't take it anymore. Maybe it is a bit silly of me, since Italy will be defeated for sure in just 1 round. But the idea is to send a signal to the rest, since we don't have hidden draw votes. I just hope Germany will at least wait until next round to vote, after Italy gets officially defeated.

And, I am still annoyed that Turkey didn't help me with Italy. I tried to support his fleet to move from ion-nap twice! And he didn't accept the alliance. It is not in his interest, and it actually puts me closer to being able to solo. I am tired and can't be bothered to solo. But I can't say that to him :)