Solo Win Tip #1: Forget the Numbers Game

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swordsman3003
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Solo Win Tip #1: Forget the Numbers Game

#1 Post by swordsman3003 » Sat Mar 30, 2019 1:20 pm

Friends, as usual, here's some shameless self-promotion of my blog.

https://brotherbored.com/solo-win-tip-1 ... bers-game/

I intend for this to be the first in a series of posts. Enjoy!
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Ogion
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Re: Solo Win Tip #1: Forget the Numbers Game

#2 Post by Ogion » Sat Mar 30, 2019 5:58 pm

Nice article. It includes a lot of the lessons I try to pass along in the Schools of War back when I was doing those.

jmo1121109
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Re: Solo Win Tip #1: Forget the Numbers Game

#3 Post by jmo1121109 » Sat Mar 30, 2019 7:25 pm

There's a couple things not covered in your article, or covered but that I want to emphasize, that play into getting solo's in games too. And while I may not play frequently anymore I do think my solo rate speaks for itself:

Classic stats:
Defeated: 11 ( 18% )
Won: 22 ( 36% )
Drawn: 23 ( 38% )
Survived: 5 ( 8% )
Total (finished): 61

Many games have a critical turn or a couple critical turns that decide if someone will have a chance at a solo. If someone with a leading position passes on those turns they most likely won't get another shot. And the important part to note is that these situations are rarely "perfect". And the reason for that is simple, in a game with skilled players, everyone on the map is constantly assessing each player to see if they have a solo shot. These "key turns" are when you have an opportunity to break existing alliances for significant centers *OR* positioning gain. What I mean by perfect is that these key turns will require risk. And that's where a lot of people play too passively. They want to ensure that they can't get into a situation where they'll be eliminated from a draw or where they'll lose centers so they focus on defensive game-play first, and will only go for a stab when it's relatively safe.

The most effective solo shots are when people are surprised and out of position to defend against that. And this often means making your solo run a turn or two before you or anyone else on the board can guess that you'd feel safe making a solo run. Your positioning might be better if you wait another turn, you might need 1 more turn to get units into a position where you can hold all of your gains. But the trade-off is that everyone else on the board will be able to see that.

So instead of waiting for the perfect situation, I try and look at the board and pretend I'm every other player on the map. And I read the board as each country. "As Russia, am I worried about anyone making a solo push this turn, and do I need to defend against it? If not, do I need to do anything to prevent them from having a solo shot in an upcoming turn?"..."As England, am I worried about..." If you read the board as everyone and realize that everyone will start defending against you 2 turns out then the current turn will be your last chance for a solo. So you need to figure out if you have a chance with a move that turn.

I've had solo's fail because I was too aggressive and too risky, but I've also gotten a lot I wouldn't have otherwise won because I made a move a turn before everyone else expected me too. Catching people off guard and out of position is absolutely key to a solo. If everyone is expecting you to try you've probably already failed.

The other really critical piece is understanding when positioning unit's is more important then securing a supply center. Let's say you're playing as Turkey and you manage to get an army in Munich and Bohemia. And you can support hold that unit and keep it, but you're not entirely sure if you can hold it long term. I would argue the right answer is *always* to push on into Ruhr or Burgundy instead of taking Munich. Why? Because it does a couple critical things for you. It makes your opponents play more defense, because from Munich you're only a threat to Berlin and Kiel. But if you move into Ruhr or Bur you're suddenly threatening way more centers and everyone trying to stop your solo has to play more defensively and play guessing games against you. And as they're stuck playing defense you have more time to move more units up to the stalemate lines. You shouldn't be thinking about the board in the sense of "how can I get to 18", you should be thinking about it like "Where can I move to cause everyone else the most difficult time possible of stopping me?" The more guessing games you open up the more of the defenders units you take up and the better your shot of winning the game. And thinking like that requires taking the time to view the board as everyone playing the game. Figure out what the best moves are for everyone on the board, and then figure out how to throw a wrench into those.

Recently I've given 3 people advice on their games which in large part all focused around the concepts of unit positioning, early/unexpected solo runs, and getting behind stalemate lines being more important then taking supply centers early in a solo run. All three of those players were able to scoop up solo's that I suspect (though obviously can't prove) would have been stoppable had they gone for more centers instead of better positioning.
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Re: Solo Win Tip #1: Forget the Numbers Game

#4 Post by swordsman3003 » Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:52 pm

jmo, that's some really wonderful advice. Just last weekend, I was talking to a real-life friend who has played Diplomacy for about 2 years now and has never achieved a solo win. The conversation boiled down to this simple concept: positions matter more than centers. Most of the time, once you have 14 or 15 units, the board is saturated and getting more builds won't help anyways.

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