If you are an eastern power, what alliance in the West is best for you?

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leon1122
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If you are an eastern power, what alliance in the West is best for you?

#1 Post by leon1122 » Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:32 pm

See title. In Spring 1901, before the first moves, which alliance do you want to see in the West as an eastern power? (I.e. England/Germany, England/France, or France/Germany) Does this depend on which specific nation you are?
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Re: If you are an eastern power, what alliance in the West is best for you?

#2 Post by Claesar » Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:08 pm

If I'm Austria, I'd like to see E/G.
Russia: F/G.
Italy: E/G
Turkey: E/G or E/F.

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Re: If you are an eastern power, what alliance in the West is best for you?

#3 Post by Ezio » Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:51 pm

Depends on which power you are and who your allies are.

Austria wants to see a strong Germany.
Turkey wants to see a Western triple, rest don't matter.
Russia doesn't want an E/G, but rest don't matter.
Italy wants E/G.

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Re: If you are an eastern power, what alliance in the West is best for you?

#4 Post by leon1122 » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:00 pm

Ezio wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:51 pm
Depends on which power you are and who your allies are.

Austria wants to see a strong Germany.
Turkey wants to see a Western triple, rest don't matter.
Russia doesn't want an E/G, but rest don't matter.
Italy wants E/G.
The rest make some amount of sense to me, but why doesn’t Russia want an E/G? Wouldn’t them targeting France pull momentum away from the Russian border?

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Re: If you are an eastern power, what alliance in the West is best for you?

#5 Post by Claesar » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:24 pm

leon1122 wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:00 pm
Ezio wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:51 pm
Depends on which power you are and who your allies are.

Austria wants to see a strong Germany.
Turkey wants to see a Western triple, rest don't matter.
Russia doesn't want an E/G, but rest don't matter.
Italy wants E/G.
The rest make some amount of sense to me, but why doesn’t Russia want an E/G? Wouldn’t them targeting France pull momentum away from the Russian border?
No, I agree. An E/G tends to dominate Scandinavia and Russia doesn't like that for obvious reasons.
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Re: If you are an eastern power, what alliance in the West is best for you?

#6 Post by David E. Cohen » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:25 pm

Because much of the time, an E/G will head east as well as west. Occasionally, an E/G will head east first, if they dupe France into thinking there is a Western Triple, with the intent to stab once France is knee deep in an Italian war and out of position to defend itself.
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Re: If you are an eastern power, what alliance in the West is best for you?

#7 Post by mhsmith0 » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:43 pm

Off the cuff...

Italy - E/G or F/G.
E/G usually means that Italy gets a long amount of time without western pressure, AND there's decent odds of good chances to pick up gains in Mar/Spa/Por area.
F/G decent too, because France is gonna be distracted by England, and F/G isn't a great long haul alliance, so decent odds they fight each other after England falls.
E/F is really bad for Italy, because guess who France is coming after if not England? The only pro-Italy aspect of E/F is it's potentially pretty easy to set up a functional R/I/G alliance, and at that point you can probably get Russian help against Turkey since E/F/T is really bad for Russia too.

Russia - F/G
E/F is bad for Russia because England's coming after Russia before long
E/G is bad for Russia because England AND Germany can come after Russia
F/G is better for Russia, especially if you can negotiate your way into Norway/Sweden as part of rewards for eliminating England. If France and Germany fight each other for a while afterwards, all the better

Austria - E/F probably the best.
Friendly E/F means that Germany won't last terribly long (and Germany is a more natural threat to Austria and Austrian growth targets than E or F), or you'll see E/F vs G/R and the whole thing just bogs down. Austria is a pretty natural ally to E/F, so your main concern is getting rid of Turkey (also a natural E/F ally) and your secondary concern is probably making sure that E/F don't get SO strong that they carebear a 2wd
E/G probably decent as well for Austria, since it hurts Russia; you just need to watch out for Italian growth/stab in that world
F/G also probably not terrible, especially if France is the stronger power

Turkey - E/F probably the best (better with G as well), F/G probably the worst.
E/F means that Russia AND Italy (both big potential problems) have things other than you to concern themselves with. E/F/G means that Austria ALSO has problems, and it's not terribly difficult to turn E/F/G into E/F/T.
F/G means England, your most natural ally on the board, is seen off quickly, AND probably that Russia gets little pressure in Scandinavia.
E/G should be fine, probably the biggest concern is that Italy gets too free a hand.
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Re: If you are an eastern power, what alliance in the West is best for you?

#8 Post by Octavious » Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:04 am

You want the chap you get on well with, and who is open to the idea of stabbing, in the western alliance. You want to avoid the development of an alliance of a couple of carebears who will be best buddies until the end of the game and seriously consider crazed notions such as two-way draws.

Which countries those players happen to be playing is relatively trivial.
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Re: If you are an eastern power, what alliance in the West is best for you?

#9 Post by David E. Cohen » Fri Feb 22, 2019 2:13 pm

Ding!

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Re: If you are an eastern power, what alliance in the West is best for you?

#10 Post by mhsmith0 » Fri Feb 22, 2019 7:13 pm

Octavious wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:04 am
You want the chap you get on well with, and who is open to the idea of stabbing, in the western alliance. You want to avoid the development of an alliance of a couple of carebears who will be best buddies until the end of the game and seriously consider crazed notions such as two-way draws.

Which countries those players happen to be playing is relatively trivial.
I think there's a lot of validity to this, though I'd also say that it's somewhat more than trivial which the players happen to be, simply because of the shape of the board.

A successful France that isn't going after England is going after Italy in relatively short order, because there's simply no other place to go, ESPECIALLY if he's fleet heavy. This in turn has all sorts of implications on Italy (duh), but also the OTHER eastern powers, who can either benefit or suffer from added pressure on Italy from the west.

Similarly, a successful England that isn't going after France is going after Russia in relatively short order, again because there's simply no other place to go, ESPECIALLY if he's army-heavy (if he's fleet-heavy he's probably just going after France before long regardless of how friendly they may seem in communications). Again this has heavy implications on the east, both directly on Russia and indirectly on the other powers.

Obviously the actual diplomacy has a lot to say on the board state, but you can profitably pretend it's a gunboat game in terms of who's doing what with their moves and see how that reflects on the game state and overall implications.

Turkey USUALLY wants there to be pressure on Italy and/or Russia, and therefore USUALLY wants to see E/F being friendly.

Russia USUALLY wants France to be successful and greatly fears E/G, and therefore USUALLY wants to see E/F fighting with France eventually winning (an E/R alliance isn't common but can work, but again that requires E/F to be fighting).

Italy USUALLY wants E/F to be fighting (so France doesn't just waltz into his backdoor) and then who he prefers to win depends on the overall board state and diplomatic situation (as Italy I'm fully willing to throw the panic flag in Fall 1901 if ENG is fully vacated by both sides, and drag Germany and Russia kicking and screaming into an anti-EF coalition before it's too late, for instance).

Austria USUALLY wants to avoid Germany being overly strong because Germany will contest Warsaw/Moscow and very well can try to push into the Balkans with a strong ally in E or F, and Austria USUALLY will profit from external pressure being applied to Italy and/or Russia, unless of course Turkey takes all of the benefits, in which case it's actually bad.

etc.

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Re: If you are an eastern power, what alliance in the West is best for you?

#11 Post by Octavious » Fri Feb 22, 2019 9:28 pm

mhsmith0 wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 7:13 pm
A successful France that isn't going after England is going after Italy in relatively short order, because there's simply no other place to go, ESPECIALLY if he's fleet heavy. This in turn has all sorts of implications on Italy (duh), but also the OTHER eastern powers, who can either benefit or suffer from added pressure on Italy from the west.
How you're defining successful plays a large part in this, I suspect. Let's assume we're talking the end of the first year, with two or three builds and friendly relations with England and Germany to the extent France feels he can pick and choose whatever alliance strikes his fancy.

This France has 3 targets (England, Germany, or Italy) and will build accordingly. I don't follow you're "no other place to go" point at all. If he initially fights England he retains the entire rest of the north as other places to go. Same if he initially fights Germany. In practice we often do tend to observe France defeating one of his western neighbours before turning on Italy, but that is invariably because France has built a good working relationship with his western ally whilst doing little other than exchange pleasantries with his Italian neighbour. If the Italian player engages in diplomacy with France from the start and in a meaningful way, a French attack becomes far less likely.

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Re: If you are an eastern power, what alliance in the West is best for you?

#12 Post by mhsmith0 » Fri Feb 22, 2019 9:55 pm

Octavious wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 9:28 pm
mhsmith0 wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 7:13 pm
A successful France that isn't going after England is going after Italy in relatively short order, because there's simply no other place to go, ESPECIALLY if he's fleet heavy. This in turn has all sorts of implications on Italy (duh), but also the OTHER eastern powers, who can either benefit or suffer from added pressure on Italy from the west.
How you're defining successful plays a large part in this, I suspect. Let's assume we're talking the end of the first year, with two or three builds and friendly relations with England and Germany to the extent France feels he can pick and choose whatever alliance strikes his fancy.

This France has 3 targets (England, Germany, or Italy) and will build accordingly. I don't follow you're "no other place to go" point at all. If he initially fights England he retains the entire rest of the north as other places to go. Same if he initially fights Germany. In practice we often do tend to observe France defeating one of his western neighbours before turning on Italy, but that is invariably because France has built a good working relationship with his western ally whilst doing little other than exchange pleasantries with his Italian neighbour. If the Italian player engages in diplomacy with France from the start and in a meaningful way, a French attack becomes far less likely.
A successful France who isn't going after England means that he's grown in some place other than England, and there's a pretty clear early game distinction between "E/F are fighting" and "E/F aren't fighting". In particular, the state of ENG post spring 1901 tends to be a massive early indicator of the diploamcy between those two. France gets in there? They're on the offensive against England. England gets there, then France is in trouble, and vice-versaBounce? Both will be slow to grow. Both vacate the channel? Time for R/I/G to be seriously concerned.

If France gets to six centers and has three fleets, he's going after England or he's going after Italy (he can even try with just two fleets if England is friendly enough, though obviously that's risky in and of itself wrt England relations). If you're Italy and in that world, France isn't pretty clearly going after England, he's coming after you. It's not all that difficult for France to hold the line against a German offensive if England is non-hostile (and if E/F aren't fighting, then Germany usually has more urgent issues than trying to batter down Burgundy or Belgium). France can, if he wishes, make for the PIE/TYS/WMED/NAF region by 1902 or 1903, and if he's confident in English friendship, has pretty decent odds to do just that.

A friendly E/F pairing is a NIGHTMARE for neighboring powers to deal with if not stymied very early. In terms of quick growth potential it may even be better than R/T (though E/F is almost impossible to turn into a 2wd).

But in terms of France specifically, let's say that you have a generically friendly EF and France is now in Belgium, Spain and Portugal (this is completely doable in 1901 btw). France can build A Par, F Mar, F Bre, and those fleets are going after England or Italy. They're not useful against Germany at all other than maybe for defensively supporting Belgium. So as Italy, you have a very strong incentive to make sure E/F are fighting, because if they're not, you're in very serious trouble as those fleets are heading south to make life extremely unpleasant for you in very short order.

In terms of diplomatic efforts, I/F certainly CAN be early game allies or at least creating a DMZ, but Italy is also a very tempting target for France if English neutrality is assured. If France can get into Tunis and/or TYS, he can grow quite powerful off of the Italian corpse. As Italy, I feel like one of the absolutely critical things I need to do diplomatically is make sure E/F are fighting each other. I don't think there's a single 2-power alliance that is as fundamentally dangerous to Italy as E/F because if England stays friendly, France WILL be coming after me before long.

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Re: If you are an eastern power, what alliance in the West is best for you?

#13 Post by Dejan0707 » Sat Feb 23, 2019 4:42 pm

This question is very interesting. I tried several times to write an answer as I see it but each time it took me several pages and stil I wasn't satisfied with it. That tells a lot about this game. So many variables that needs to be taken into account and stil there would be plenty more that would influence the end result and you never considered them.

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Re: If you are an eastern power, what alliance in the West is best for you?

#14 Post by mhsmith0 » Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:32 am

FWIW for the inverse (what do western powers want to have happen), the concept of "you want stuff to not really be resolved" is generally accurate (especially if you think you have any kind of solo chance), but beyond that...

England
You generally don't want Russia to be too successful (even if you're not fighting him) because he can spam fleet builds and take over Scandinavia and eventually force your home centers given enough breathing space
You generally don't want Italy to be too successful, unless that success is part of an anti-France coalition (in particular, Italy is the only "eastern" power with a reasonable chance to push through MAO from the south, whereas if Austria and/or Turkey grow too fast, you really ought to be able to hold onto Mar/Spa/Por/MAO, provided you can take them from France).
A successful I/R that's friendly with France is VERY bad for you (and one that's working with Germany isn't much fun either), that's part of why you usually want at least one of Austria/Turkey to be doing reasonably well.

France
You generally don't want Italy to be too successful, unless you have a really strong I/F alliance (and even then, know that he can turn on you eventually, just like Russia can against England)
You generally don't want Turkey to be too successful since he can fight you over Italy and Tunis and eventually grow strong enough to push your home centers, or at the least force you to bunch units into defending your southern border instead of attacking people and growing.
Italy and Turkey fighting without any real resolution is usually good for France, otherwise Austria and Russia are both powers whose growth tends not to be too bad for France.

Germany
Italy is your most natural ally on the entire board, if he's doing well you're probably doing well (very little overlap in centers targeted for solos, and a successful Italy is a threat to whichever of England/France is doing well).
Russia is either an explicit ally (useful against England, potentially useful to hold down Austria) or someone you want dead since you're first in the crosshairs a lot of the time.
Austria is a more natural ally than Russia, but still dangerous if he grows fast, as he can plow a bunch of armies into your home centers very quickly if he has no major threats to defend against. Austria neither growing too fast or collapsing (especially to Russia) tends to be best for you.
Turkey is useful against Austria and Russia both, but his growth tends to hurt Italy (who you usually want to see do well), and he can ramp up armies damn fast if left unattended.
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Re: If you are an eastern power, what alliance in the West is best for you?

#15 Post by Restitution » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:04 pm

Claesar wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:08 pm
If I'm Austria, I'd like to see E/G.
Russia: F/G.
Italy: E/G
Turkey: E/G or E/F.
Why?

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